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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 107794 times)

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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1850 on: March 22, 2019, 09:07:13 am »

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1851 on: March 22, 2019, 09:08:00 am »

What if I wanted to claim first?

Okay, Iím done. Ima go sleep now, see you people later, hopefully after all the scum decide to forfeit for fun.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1852 on: March 22, 2019, 09:09:03 am »

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?
What results?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1853 on: March 22, 2019, 09:11:33 am »

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?
What results?

The...the targets for bus drive in each potencial night. Say, if I drived N1 targets were X and Y, if N2 targets A and B etc. And of course he shouldn't say when he did it untill it matters in case he didn't do it at all.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1854 on: March 22, 2019, 09:16:08 am »

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?
What results?

The...the targets for bus drive in each potencial night. Say, if I drived N1 targets were X and Y, if N2 targets A and B etc. And of course he shouldn't say when he did it untill it matters in case he didn't do it at all.
No, they should claim everything.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1855 on: March 22, 2019, 09:20:05 am »

Oh. Okay...sure, that works. Reminder that it helps scum!cops but I suppose barely so.

We should wait for more people to have their say on this, but I think I agree with this.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1856 on: March 22, 2019, 09:29:21 am »

Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.

DatSwan was the only person I really trusted. Ugh. Chicken being Ferengi explains some of his difference in play bewtween D2 and D3.

So, there are 9 left? And if there are two scum teams, that only leaves four of us from town? Ugh. If there is an SK, then six of us are town? Ugh, but slightly less so. And the scum know each other and have had a chance to talk?  I feel like weíre screwed. How am I so bad at this game? Ugh.

Iím at a writing retreat in Oregon today through late Sunday, so pretty much V/LA until Monday. Iíll try to check in some but it will be limited engagement. Apologies in advance.

To;dr: ugh

faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1857 on: March 22, 2019, 09:30:37 am »

Chicken being Ferengi explains some of his difference in play bewtween D2 and D3.
Tell me more about that difference.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

ashersky

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1858 on: March 22, 2019, 10:18:05 am »

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.

But not results, right?
What results?

The...the targets for bus drive in each potencial night. Say, if I drived N1 targets were X and Y, if N2 targets A and B etc. And of course he shouldn't say when he did it untill it matters in case he didn't do it at all.

So clearly claiming not Bus Driver, I see.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1859 on: March 22, 2019, 10:18:59 am »

Itís officially ďfaust has been alive too long to be townĒ time.

Plus the neighborhood flips make you look worse.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1860 on: March 22, 2019, 10:21:45 am »

Plus the neighborhood flips make you look worse.
Why?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1861 on: March 22, 2019, 10:33:21 am »

Vote: MiX

Faust is on my suspicion list too. I'm cool with ash and UncleEddie. I don't have any feelings about claiming.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1862 on: March 22, 2019, 10:51:26 am »

Vote: MiX

Faust is on my suspicion list too. I'm cool with ash and UncleEddie. I don't have any feelings about claiming.

Yeah, yeah, you exist. I don't think we should say our reads before claiming but that vote's obvious.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1863 on: March 22, 2019, 10:55:41 am »

Vote: MiX

Faust is on my suspicion list too. I'm cool with ash and UncleEddie. I don't have any feelings about claiming.

Yeah, yeah, you exist. I don't think we should say our reads before claiming but that vote's obvious.

I'm sorry, I'm not going to obey faust's every whim because you nominated him King of the thread. I didn't vote for him and I'll do what I want.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1864 on: March 22, 2019, 11:02:59 am »

Vote: MiX

Faust is on my suspicion list too. I'm cool with ash and UncleEddie. I don't have any feelings about claiming.

Yeah, yeah, you exist. I don't think we should say our reads before claiming but that vote's obvious.

I'm sorry, I'm not going to obey faust's every whim because you nominated him King of the thread. I didn't vote for him and I'll do what I want.

I fail to see what faust has to do with my own opinion about not talking about reads before claiming.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1865 on: March 22, 2019, 11:03:48 am »

Itís officially ďfaust has been alive too long to be townĒ time.

I was thinking that, too. But clearly he can't be on both non-town factions, so we have evidence that at least one scummy person not aligned with faust is definitely choosing not to target him, which is better than we have for most games.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1866 on: March 22, 2019, 11:04:18 am »

I'm sorry, I'm not going to obey faust's every whim because you nominated him King of the thread. I didn't vote for him and I'll do what I want.
Oh but you did:

Vote: faust

Yes, that vote was absolutely for king of the thread elections. You didn't realize what you were voting for at the time? Well something something Brexit referendum.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

EFHW

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1867 on: March 22, 2019, 11:07:40 am »

So, I think the first order of business should be that Elim Garak claims.
I'm good with that.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1868 on: March 22, 2019, 11:08:48 am »

I'm sorry, I'm not going to obey faust's every whim because you nominated him King of the thread. I didn't vote for him and I'll do what I want.
Oh but you did:

Vote: faust

Yes, that vote was absolutely for king of the thread elections. You didn't realize what you were voting for at the time? Well something something Brexit referendum.

Aaaaaannnnnndddddd I just spit my coffee out trying not choke while laughing. Much appreciated!
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EFHW

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1869 on: March 22, 2019, 11:13:25 am »

I'm not sure if the cops should claim, though. Unless they have positive results, of course. This is a reason not to mass claim. The cops are our only ability to get information other than from flips, and they will one or both die tonight if we out them. Even if they have negative results on the same person, that person could still be SK. It could be worth looking through DatSwan's Day 3 to see if he crumbed anything about his N2 result.

The continued spate of town nk's makes me think SK is more likely than MU at this point. Just by chance you would think an MU would have been hit by now.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1870 on: March 22, 2019, 11:43:35 am »

Well time for some calculations.

Considering we know that neither SK nor MU have flipped so far, from a townie's POV (assuming all lynches and kills are random with the exception of no in-team NKs) probabilities are like this:

Maquis + SK: 66.14%
Maquis + MU: 33.86%

So... still very much possible that we have a bunch of scum.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1871 on: March 22, 2019, 12:02:42 pm »

Well time for some calculations.

Considering we know that neither SK nor MU have flipped so far, from a townie's POV (assuming all lynches and kills are random with the exception of no in-team NKs) probabilities are like this:

Maquis + SK: 66.14%
Maquis + MU: 33.86%

So... still very much possible that we have a bunch of scum.

Why do these numbers depend on having a townie's PoV? Would a Maquis point of view make a difference to your calculation?

My numbers would be the same either way, but I still get a slight difference (64% chance of SK) compared to you, so I'd still like to know what you're doing differently.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1872 on: March 22, 2019, 12:04:30 pm »

Do they numbers really help you scumhunt? (I can't tell if I'm annoyed or genuinely curious right now so take it how you will.)
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1873 on: March 22, 2019, 12:11:11 pm »

Well time for some calculations.

Considering we know that neither SK nor MU have flipped so far, from a townie's POV (assuming all lynches and kills are random with the exception of no in-team NKs) probabilities are like this:

Maquis + SK: 66.14%
Maquis + MU: 33.86%

So... still very much possible that we have a bunch of scum.

Why do these numbers depend on having a townie's PoV? Would a Maquis point of view make a difference to your calculation?

My numbers would be the same either way, but I still get a slight difference (64% chance of SK) compared to you, so I'd still like to know what you're doing differently.
Knowledge that you are a townie and have not been killed factors into things like "how likely was it that there was a D1 lynch that wasn't SK"? From an outside perspective, assuming there is an SK, that's 17/18. If you do it conditional on knowing you were not the lynch target, it's 16/17.

Numbers for non-me townies should still be slightly different if you factor in the knowledge that I am not the SK.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #1874 on: March 22, 2019, 12:13:18 pm »

Do they numbers really help you scumhunt? (I can't tell if I'm annoyed or genuinely curious right now so take it how you will.)
Not really, I just do them for fun. It is nice to get a sense of how much we should worry about a second team, but in practice it probably does not change too much for our play today.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.
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