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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 90652 times)

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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1525 on: March 14, 2019, 11:39:26 pm »

I also jumped off the Mix wagon at a critical juncture - which if you think MiX is mafia is a pretty damning move.

So how do you feel about MiX?
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1526 on: March 14, 2019, 11:48:31 pm »

My statement was saying that you would NK Shraeye on the grounds that he can read you. So whether you thought he was scum or not, or whether he agreed with you on MiX or not.

I don't think shraeye can read me. At least not well. What makes you believe I think that?
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1527 on: March 14, 2019, 11:59:39 pm »

He seemed fairly confident on your townieness last game, I assume he knows your style in either alignment.

Plus if anyone has an advantage in reading you it would be him.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1528 on: March 15, 2019, 12:00:08 am »

(Again, though, thatís not why I voted you)
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Uncleeurope Eddie

raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1529 on: March 15, 2019, 12:03:40 am »

(Again, though, thatís not why I voted you)

But I'm still going to question things that strike me odd regardless of whether they're related to votes on me.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1530 on: March 15, 2019, 12:05:33 am »

(Again, though, thatís not why I voted you)

But I'm still going to question things that strike me odd regardless of whether they're related to votes on me.

Yup, thatís fine, just didnít want ya thinking my motivations were based solely on that point.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1531 on: March 15, 2019, 02:26:42 am »

I'm very interested in what faust and Ash think of this.
Why us two in particular?

I think there is a point to your observations, but I don't think MiX and shraeye look like partners. Specifically, shraeye was pushing a MiX lynch all D2.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1532 on: March 15, 2019, 04:06:55 am »


Why chicken?

My past two lynch votes have turned up town, I very nearly was the hammer on the innocent awaclus and Eddie has been saying I'm shifty for like 3 days. He's definitely within his rights - I look like hella scum from voting record alone.

Can you tell us why we should believe you're town? It feels like you KNOW you're scummy, but if you're town you should've known that everything you did had a pro-town purpose. Awaclus' not here so I have to do these questions.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1533 on: March 15, 2019, 05:29:51 am »

Eddie, did you reread shraeye?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1534 on: March 15, 2019, 05:31:59 am »

Oh and

Can we get an update to the thread title?

I could do this myself, but maybe that goes beyond what is acceptable for a player in the game to do.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1535 on: March 15, 2019, 06:06:00 am »

Eddie, did you reread shraeye?

I've been feeling lazy, I will get to it before I head to bed today.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1536 on: March 15, 2019, 07:10:35 am »

Eddie, did you reread shraeye?

I've been feeling lazy, I will get to it before I head to bed today.

Okay, I finished it.

I learned some stuff.

Mainly that wanting no-lynch is confirmed scummy behavior.

Why do you ask?
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1537 on: March 15, 2019, 08:09:31 am »

Eddie, did you reread shraeye?

I've been feeling lazy, I will get to it before I head to bed today.

Okay, I finished it.

I learned some stuff.

Mainly that wanting no-lynch is confirmed scummy behavior.

Why do you ask?
I wanted to know how informed your reads are.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 3)
« Reply #1538 on: March 15, 2019, 08:13:28 am »

Ahkay, well I am still just as interested in the people I have voted for today thus far (with a slight exception) and more interested in one of those people.

And a new name has plopped onto the list that I havenít voted for yet.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1539 on: March 15, 2019, 08:24:10 am »

Cool, so I've finished the D2 glooble reread and he mentions suspicion of MiX at #1015, #1126, #1241, and #1302. He's semi-suspicious of e in #1152 but doesn't hit on that again. He pushes UoS a couple times, disagreeing with things UoS said but not assigning any actual scumpoints. #888 was his wagon analysis and he says there's likely scum in UoS, Space, chicken, and DS for their place on wagon, and Didds for her vote explanation.

Based on this, I'm game for a MiX lunch. Glooble died for a reason and MiX was the one he was on the fence of all day (other than Awaclus, obviously).

Vote: MiX
Would you also support an e lynch?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

ashersky

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 3)
« Reply #1540 on: March 15, 2019, 08:33:18 am »

Can someone explain to me why the new default assumption is that there is no SK?

Even with the new buried info coming to light, ďno SK in neighborhoodĒ is not definite for the game. Heck, the whole hood could be town.

We know itís Maq+SK or Maq+MU.

Separately, I donít think it matters because truly figuring out NK motives is near impossible. The only thing we should care about is now the Maq cop matters and one of the other two donít. If one of the other two has a guilty result, they should get us to lynch that player.
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Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 3)
« Reply #1541 on: March 15, 2019, 08:34:18 am »

As for raerae asking for faust and I to weigh in...not sure exactly what you expect me to say. I think both of you are scummy, if not scum.
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2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year

Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
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Town: 47 Games, 24 Wins
Scum: 22 Games, 13 Wins
11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 3)
« Reply #1542 on: March 15, 2019, 08:48:23 am »

Can someone explain to me why the new default assumption is that there is no SK?
Setup is rolled in a way such that only 33% of games that have the Maquis faction also have an SK. So 2 scum teams is the most likely thing. But you're right, it shouldn't matter all that much, the best thing we can do either way is figure out shraeye's partners.

However we kind of ignore the fact in those probabilities that no other scum has flipped so far (and scum would have been likely to flip in a game with 2  full factions). Assuming all kills were random from the potential pool, considering this factor changes probabilities as follows:

2 teams: 50.6%
team + SK: 49.4%

Which is to say... really we don't know anything.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1543 on: March 15, 2019, 09:50:23 am »

Cool, so I've finished the D2 glooble reread and he mentions suspicion of MiX at #1015, #1126, #1241, and #1302. He's semi-suspicious of e in #1152 but doesn't hit on that again. He pushes UoS a couple times, disagreeing with things UoS said but not assigning any actual scumpoints. #888 was his wagon analysis and he says there's likely scum in UoS, Space, chicken, and DS for their place on wagon, and Didds for her vote explanation.

Based on this, I'm game for a MiX lunch. Glooble died for a reason and MiX was the one he was on the fence of all day (other than Awaclus, obviously).

Vote: MiX
Would you also support an e lynch?

Depends, are you pulling that from glooble or shraeye interactions?
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 3)
« Reply #1544 on: March 15, 2019, 09:51:55 am »

Cool, so I've finished the D2 glooble reread and he mentions suspicion of MiX at #1015, #1126, #1241, and #1302. He's semi-suspicious of e in #1152 but doesn't hit on that again. He pushes UoS a couple times, disagreeing with things UoS said but not assigning any actual scumpoints. #888 was his wagon analysis and he says there's likely scum in UoS, Space, chicken, and DS for their place on wagon, and Didds for her vote explanation.

Based on this, I'm game for a MiX lunch. Glooble died for a reason and MiX was the one he was on the fence of all day (other than Awaclus, obviously).

Vote: MiX
Would you also support an e lynch?

Depends, are you pulling that from glooble or shraeye interactions?

I had the exact same question in my mind. Odd. But you worded it much better than I ever would.
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1545 on: March 15, 2019, 09:54:09 am »

I'm very interested in what faust and Ash think of this.
Why us two in particular?

I think there is a point to your observations, but I don't think MiX and shraeye look like partners. Specifically, shraeye was pushing a MiX lynch all D2.

But that's the whole thing you have to throw out the window when shraeye is involved. He does not interact with his partners in any noticable way.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 3)
« Reply #1546 on: March 15, 2019, 09:56:23 am »

I'm very interested in what faust and Ash think of this.
Why us two in particular?

I think there is a point to your observations, but I don't think MiX and shraeye look like partners. Specifically, shraeye was pushing a MiX lynch all D2.

But that's the whole thing you have to throw out the window when shraeye is involved. He does not interact with his partners in any noticable way.

How about the other way around? Also, this is impossible, he's only human. Did I say this before?
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 3)
« Reply #1547 on: March 15, 2019, 09:59:53 am »

As for raerae asking for faust and I to weigh in...not sure exactly what you expect me to say. I think both of you are scummy, if not scum.

Ash, I think you always think I'm scummy. Does that mean you're just discounting what I said? NK analysis is absolutely important when shraeye is involved and it's clear his team killed glooble therefore glooble's kill tells us something about shraeye's team. I mean, do you think I'm making that up or just straight wrong?
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 3)
« Reply #1548 on: March 15, 2019, 10:04:44 am »

I'm very interested in what faust and Ash think of this.
Why us two in particular?

I think there is a point to your observations, but I don't think MiX and shraeye look like partners. Specifically, shraeye was pushing a MiX lynch all D2.

But that's the whole thing you have to throw out the window when shraeye is involved. He does not interact with his partners in any noticable way.

How about the other way around? Also, this is impossible, he's only human. Did I say this before?

The other way around? What's that even mean? I've played this game with him and seen it, it mimics his real life, is almost like I live with him or something.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1549 on: March 15, 2019, 10:07:42 am »

I'm very interested in what faust and Ash think of this.
Why us two in particular?

I think there is a point to your observations, but I don't think MiX and shraeye look like partners. Specifically, shraeye was pushing a MiX lynch all D2.

But that's the whole thing you have to throw out the window when shraeye is involved. He does not interact with his partners in any noticable way.
I do not believe this is true. I went back to the one game shraeye and me have been scum together, M31. Here are some of the things he said in the scum QT:

Quote
What I often do, is research an actual case on one of my partners, but then delete the two most damning pieces of evidence.
Quote
Twistedarcher: Just be careful not to defend any of us without a good reason

shraeye: so Twisted is right, just don't interpret that as "never defend any partner without 200% solid proof."
Two cases where shraeye says he will deliberately treat a partner differently as scum.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.
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