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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 91050 times)

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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1475 on: March 14, 2019, 08:56:05 am »

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.

Really? How do you know?
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1476 on: March 14, 2019, 09:34:04 am »

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.

Really? How do you know?

"Faust at #306: "Note also that the SK (which has a 2/3 chance of existing) is Bulletproof, so scum has further incentive not to shoot scummy people, and the SK has no incentive to shoot scum."" -#1244

Deduction skills unmatched!
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Chickenwarlord

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1477 on: March 14, 2019, 09:54:32 am »

Well, the Maquis flip is nice - especially since it's the UB.
Time to go and look at the faust defense wagon and MiX hunting from yesterday with current knowledge.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1478 on: March 14, 2019, 10:00:25 am »

First of all, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

Now, if other scum had Maquis cop, do you think they would ever kill shraeye? They could just make sure their target isn't Maquis every night (except N1), by copping N1 who they wanna kill D2, right? So, should Maquis cop claim to get an IC and (potencially) 2 others? (If we're trying to lynch Maquis today, which I think we should)

WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

Thoughts?
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1479 on: March 14, 2019, 10:06:56 am »

I would think the current day would hold more sway over kill choices.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1480 on: March 14, 2019, 10:09:28 am »

First of all, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

Now, if other scum had Maquis cop, do you think they would ever kill shraeye?

This is making the assumption that there was no busdriving shenanigans. We do have a setup in which shraeye not being the initial target is possible.
I am not a big fan of a maquis cop claim, since if we are aiming for maquis should we look no further than your own lynchwagon yesterday MiX? If shraeye was maquis, it is likely that at least one other was involved in voting for you. Starting there might be better than having a cop out in the open if you want to go maquis hunting.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1481 on: March 14, 2019, 10:15:09 am »

Bus driving...well, I see no reason to assume a 1-shot role worked so well, but...dammit, why don't my plans work?

Of course rereading is better, this was just an option for after. By the way, the other involved in voting me is raerae.

Vote: raerae, maybe.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1482 on: March 14, 2019, 10:30:24 am »

How likely do people who know Joth well think it is for him to have rolled a game, landed in a three-plus-one scum scenario, then decided to assign the three-person faction the purple colour, saving the more traditional red flip colour for the singleton SK?
Any reasonable mod would have determined colours prior to rolling the setup.

Your statement does not actually answer my question ;-)

Also, I think using the traditional red and purple for the two scum/SK colours, randomising them after the teams are rolled, is totally in line with perfect modding, and yet is not the same as your "any reasonable mod" protocol above.
Well, Maquis had the same colour in the original run of this setup, if that helps you.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1483 on: March 14, 2019, 10:32:29 am »

"I had another thought about the setup. Iím going to pick the scum configuration with 2 coin flips rather than randomly choosing two of three teams. I think itís better that itís 50/50 SK+scum or scumx2 rather than 33/66 so town doesnít get a ďdefault assumptionĒ." - #11

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.
Welp, that sort of stuff should really be somewhere in the setup post and not hidden in some random comment. I guess this means that the chance of having an SK are actually at below 25% now. Ugh.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1484 on: March 14, 2019, 10:32:53 am »

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.

Really? How do you know?

"Faust at #306: "Note also that the SK (which has a 2/3 chance of existing) is Bulletproof, so scum has further incentive not to shoot scummy people, and the SK has no incentive to shoot scum."" -#1244

Deduction skills unmatched!

You said "I know Space...", then when I asked how you know, you quoted faust. This makes no sense to me. Please could you explain your logic?
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1485 on: March 14, 2019, 10:33:41 am »

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.

Really? How do you know?

"Faust at #306: "Note also that the SK (which has a 2/3 chance of existing) is Bulletproof, so scum has further incentive not to shoot scummy people, and the SK has no incentive to shoot scum."" -#1244

Deduction skills unmatched!

You said "I know Space...", then when I asked how you know, you quoted faust. This makes no sense to me. Please could you explain your logic?

Post #1244 is yours...
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1486 on: March 14, 2019, 10:35:28 am »

"I had another thought about the setup. Iím going to pick the scum configuration with 2 coin flips rather than randomly choosing two of three teams. I think itís better that itís 50/50 SK+scum or scumx2 rather than 33/66 so town doesnít get a ďdefault assumptionĒ." - #11

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.
Welp, that sort of stuff should really be somewhere in the setup post and not hidden in some random comment. I guess this means that the chance of having an SK are actually at below 25% now. Ugh.

How? What? He did a coinflip to determine if SK existed, and then, if he does, another coinflip for what scumteam's in. Can you confirm this? Only logical explanation.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1487 on: March 14, 2019, 10:35:35 am »

First of all, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

Now, if other scum had Maquis cop, do you think they would ever kill shraeye? They could just make sure their target isn't Maquis every night (except N1), by copping N1 who they wanna kill D2, right? So, should Maquis cop claim to get an IC and (potencially) 2 others? (If we're trying to lynch Maquis today, which I think we should)

WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

Thoughts?
1. This does not work. If they Cop someone N1 and get Maquis, then what do they do N2? They cannot guarantee that their target isn't Maquis.

But more importantly,
2. I do not understand what incentive to other scum team would have to avoid shooting Maquises.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1488 on: March 14, 2019, 10:38:28 am »

"I had another thought about the setup. Iím going to pick the scum configuration with 2 coin flips rather than randomly choosing two of three teams. I think itís better that itís 50/50 SK+scum or scumx2 rather than 33/66 so town doesnít get a ďdefault assumptionĒ." - #11

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.
Welp, that sort of stuff should really be somewhere in the setup post and not hidden in some random comment. I guess this means that the chance of having an SK are actually at below 25% now. Ugh.

How? What? He did a coinflip to determine if SK existed, and then, if he does, another coinflip for what scumteam's in. Can you confirm this? Only logical explanation.
Yes.

50% 2 scum teams
50% scum + SK, of these we have 25% SK + Mirror Universe and 25% SK + Maquis.

The actual likelihood of SK is somewhat lower because the knowledge that there is no SK among the Ferengi pushes the likelihood of having an SK down via conditional probability.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1489 on: March 14, 2019, 10:40:10 am »

How likely do people who know Joth well think it is for him to have rolled a game, landed in a three-plus-one scum scenario, then decided to assign the three-person faction the purple colour, saving the more traditional red flip colour for the singleton SK?
Any reasonable mod would have determined colours prior to rolling the setup.

Your statement does not actually answer my question ;-)

Also, I think using the traditional red and purple for the two scum/SK colours, randomising them after the teams are rolled, is totally in line with perfect modding, and yet is not the same as your "any reasonable mod" protocol above.
Well, Maquis had the same colour in the original run of this setup, if that helps you.

Yep, I'm aware of that because I went and looked it up before posting my original query.

Again, you're answering my posts without engaging with the speculation I'm really interested in :-P

Though I think with the <25% setup point, we're coming to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that we're in a two-scum-team scenario. Which is presumably good for you personally, isn't it? I would think makes the chances of the other Ferengi being town much higher, considering Joth's earlier slip about what he'd do if both scum factions were in the group QT.

PPE 4
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1490 on: March 14, 2019, 10:42:25 am »

First of all, WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

Now, if other scum had Maquis cop, do you think they would ever kill shraeye? They could just make sure their target isn't Maquis every night (except N1), by copping N1 who they wanna kill D2, right? So, should Maquis cop claim to get an IC and (potencially) 2 others? (If we're trying to lynch Maquis today, which I think we should)

WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM

Thoughts?
1. This does not work. If they Cop someone N1 and get Maquis, then what do they do N2? They cannot guarantee that their target isn't Maquis.

But more importantly,
2. I do not understand what incentive to other scum team would have to avoid shooting Maquises.

1) That was all part of my plan: if scum!Maquis came out, they would say 2 inno results (or 1 in N2), and then we could reread to see if they were trying to breadcrumb their actual N1 guilty result in D2.

2) They would rather lynch, of course.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1491 on: March 14, 2019, 10:43:27 am »

Though I think with the <25% setup point, we're coming to the conclusion that it is more likely than not that we're in a two-scum-team scenario. Which is presumably good for you personally, isn't it? I would think makes the chances of the other Ferengi being town much higher, considering Joth's earlier slip about what he'd do if both scum factions were in the group QT.
I would love for this to be true, but wasn't that slip only about the possibility of the Ferengis being all scum? [checks back] Yes. But Awaclus already flipped town!Ferengi, so this does nothing.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1492 on: March 14, 2019, 10:43:59 am »

Yes.

50% 2 scum teams
50% scum + SK, of these we have 25% SK + Mirror Universe and 25% SK + Maquis.

The actual likelihood of SK is somewhat lower because the knowledge that there is no SK among the Ferengi pushes the likelihood of having an SK down via conditional probability.

This is fair, but that decreases it to 33%, never less.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1493 on: March 14, 2019, 10:46:22 am »

No SK is bad because then Ferengi info is useless. Besides, multiball seems harder for town, am I right? Feels very easy to create a scum v scum situation where town has very low odds to win.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1494 on: March 14, 2019, 10:46:45 am »

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.

Really? How do you know?

"Faust at #306: "Note also that the SK (which has a 2/3 chance of existing) is Bulletproof, so scum has further incentive not to shoot scummy people, and the SK has no incentive to shoot scum."" -#1244

Deduction skills unmatched!

You said "I know Space...", then when I asked how you know, you quoted faust. This makes no sense to me. Please could you explain your logic?

Post #1244 is yours...

Oh! Okay, that's my bad for misunderstanding your word choice. "To catch onto something" is to understand it, so I thought you meant I knew about the change in likelihoods, which I was objecting to because I did not. I now think you mean something more along the lines of "Space was caught out by the change", i.e. I did not know.

PPE 4
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1495 on: March 14, 2019, 10:49:15 am »

My head is spinning a bot from all the probability talk.... Space says that we seem to be converging on the idea we are likely dealing with 2 scum teams.  Is that accurate?  So 5 out of the remaining 12 players.  Holy cow....that's a lot of scum.

Today is my long teaching day (but spring break starts tomorrow so I am as giddy as town!faust about the idea of a week off of work!) so I won't be able to dedicate time or energy until later today or tomorrow.

vote: EFHW because the LL feelings from before haven't really gone away and 5/12 is pretty good odds.

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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1496 on: March 14, 2019, 10:49:28 am »

2) They would rather lynch, of course.
Mf, maybe, but they don't want to claim Cop, so they cannot guarantee a lynch. And the sooner get get another scum to flip, the sooner town focuses their efforts on finding that scum's partners. Which helps them. Also shooting someone they don't know anything about means they stilll have more total info going into the later game. I don't think this is clear cut at all.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1497 on: March 14, 2019, 10:50:28 am »

Vote: WCD
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1498 on: March 14, 2019, 10:53:37 am »

Vote Count 3.2

With most people holing up in their quarters, business is slow at Quark's. But he does have two customers quickly drinking through his supply of booze: fearless General Martok and dependable drunk Morn. Morn is telling Martok a long and elaborate story about his second cousin.

Vote count:

faust (1): UmbrageOfSnow, DatSwan
2.71828..... (1): faust
raerae (1): MiX
EFHW (1): WestCoastDidds
WestCoastDidds (1): Uncleeurope

Not Voting (10): raerae, ashersky, chickenwarlord, SpaceAnemone, 2.71828....., EFHW

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch most players. Day 3 will end at 12 pm forum time/US ET (16:00 GMT) on Wednesday, March 20th .
« Last Edit: March 15, 2019, 02:09:35 pm by jotheonah »
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1499 on: March 14, 2019, 11:10:36 am »

Oh! Okay, that's my bad for misunderstanding your word choice. "To catch onto something" is to understand it, so I thought you meant I knew about the change in likelihoods, which I was objecting to because I did not. I now think you mean something more along the lines of "Space was caught out by the change", i.e. I did not know.

I meant you caught on faust's mistake. Why did you quote that faust post then? That confuses me now.

PPE 4
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