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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 377646 times)

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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1450 on: March 13, 2019, 08:05:38 pm »

How likely do people who know Joth well think it is for him to have rolled a game, landed in a three-plus-one scum scenario, then decided to assign the three-person faction the purple colour, saving the more traditional red flip colour for the singleton SK?

I actually assumed Maquis flipped red, MU flipped purple and Changeling flipped black. Now I'm wondering where I got this idea from...
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1451 on: March 13, 2019, 08:40:20 pm »

Question for Mods: am I allowed to use flip colours for flipped players in posts I make about wagons?

I don’t see the harm. Go ahead.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2019, 08:42:34 pm by jotheonah »
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1452 on: March 13, 2019, 09:53:57 pm »

Working on a reread of glooble and hit a button, went back a page, everything reloaded so now I'm annoyed and I'll finish later. In the meantime, glooble had a townread on faust but was suspicious of UoS. EFHW was pushing a gloobs lunch unsuccessfully.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1453 on: March 13, 2019, 10:18:38 pm »

also people should scan glooble for potential crumbs

He was a flavour cop, though, right? Is crumbing going to give us anything useful without knowing anz results he got, given that flavour and alignment are mostly decoupled?

Flavor Cop in this setup is Role Cop.  It's useful for confirming claims and/or finding out roles.  It's mildly more useful for scum than town, in my opinion.

I doubt he crumbed, lest he out a town power role that matters.  I wouldn't.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1454 on: March 13, 2019, 10:20:45 pm »

I don't like faust actively deceiving everyone, but I think it makes him more likely to be town than before.  It's too on-the-nose for a scum gambit.

Glooble dying is sad, but gaining a second mod (twin at that) is cool, so I'll call it a wash.

Scum NKing scum is best for town early, I think, so yay scum there.  I think shraeye was targeted for being towny, though, not scummy.  So I'm guessing that's a backfire there.

At least this game is down to a manageable population.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1455 on: March 13, 2019, 10:26:26 pm »

Working on a reread of glooble and hit a button, went back a page, everything reloaded so now I'm annoyed and I'll finish later. In the meantime, glooble had a townread on faust but was suspicious of UoS. EFHW was pushing a gloobs lunch unsuccessfully.
Could one reason they nk'd him, since he was proving difficult to lynch.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1456 on: March 13, 2019, 10:27:19 pm »

I believe faust, but his plan hurt us.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1457 on: March 14, 2019, 12:41:53 am »

also people should scan glooble for potential crumbs

He was a flavour cop, though, right? Is crumbing going to give us anything useful without knowing anz results he got, given that flavour and alignment are mostly decoupled?

yeah that is a fair point. role doesn't actually indicate anything about alignment. Also I looked and found nothing.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1458 on: March 14, 2019, 01:46:28 am »

How likely do people who know Joth well think it is for him to have rolled a game, landed in a three-plus-one scum scenario, then decided to assign the three-person faction the purple colour, saving the more traditional red flip colour for the singleton SK?
Any reasonable mod would have determined colours prior to rolling the setup.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1459 on: March 14, 2019, 03:07:39 am »

It is notable that shraeye flipping Maquis makes an SK scenario less likely (from 2/3 down to 1/2) - actual probabilities are a bit lower as you have to factor in the Ferengi info. The threat of dobule scum teams is real.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1460 on: March 14, 2019, 03:24:32 am »

It is notable that shraeye flipping Maquis makes an SK scenario less likely (from 2/3 down to 1/2) - actual probabilities are a bit lower as you have to factor in the Ferengi info. The threat of dobule scum teams is real.

Isn’t this just Monty Hall?  You had three doors, shown one, now the other two move up from 1/3 to 1/2.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1461 on: March 14, 2019, 03:27:08 am »

Put differently it was

A+B
A+C
B+C

You just learned one of the letters is in play, so it just removes one option.  It doesn’t make one or the other more likely, just lowers the chance from 2/3 to 1/2 for both.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1462 on: March 14, 2019, 05:10:37 am »

Vote: e
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1463 on: March 14, 2019, 06:05:13 am »

So:
1) Faust would not lie about the SK not being in Ferengi  because the remaining Ferengi  would immediately know they were lying, if they were lyning. Non option.

2) Set up says that the Ferengi  will be informed of ONE alignment that is not in the Ferengi. So, even though we must assume there is no SK... there is no reason to assume there is no mafia.

3) I do not understand why Faust felt the need to claim here. What are they actually doing? Nothing! The other skum faction now knows what... not to kill faust? It doesn't really matter what his alignment is. It also of course comes out as super towny... which is something that faust literally never cares about.

4) Skum team A would leave Faust alive to get the point I am supposed to make here, being - "hey, why is faust still alive?"

5) Voting actions on Awaclus make sense as town, but they also make sense for someone in Ferengi that is skum knowing Awaclus was Town (one less to deal with).

6) This is exactly the point in time of the game I would expect a skum team to make a bold play in order to dictate lynch candidates, or at the minimum remove themselves from the pool.

I completely disagree that this claim was helpful. It has told us essentially nothing. It has just given skum that is not apart of Faust's  team a reason to NOT target Faust.

Vote: Faust
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1464 on: March 14, 2019, 06:14:44 am »

5). ScumA!faust wouldn't know if Awaclus was town.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1465 on: March 14, 2019, 06:15:31 am »

5). Scum!faust wouldn't know if Awaclus was town.
ebwop
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1466 on: March 14, 2019, 06:17:52 am »

5). Scum!faust wouldn't know if Awaclus was town.
ebwop
It doesn't matter either way. Why is point 5 in there? I don't think your overall argument works.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1467 on: March 14, 2019, 06:21:52 am »

3) I do not understand why Faust felt the need to claim here. What are they actually doing? Nothing! The other skum faction now knows what... not to kill faust? It doesn't really matter what his alignment is. It also of course comes out as super towny... which is something that faust literally never cares about.
People were starting to vote for me. I would not be able to dispel that suspicion without claiming. As UoS said on D2 already, I looked like I was manipulating people... because well I did try that. Without context people would rightfully read that as scummy.

Second, Ferengi claim is beneficial to some extent, as we can ensure that the SK Cop investigates someone who isn't already guaranteed to be non-SK. I debated whether this was worth claiming for back in D1, but decided it wasn't then. Now the potential target pool is smaller and remvoing more people from it more effective, and did I mention I had to claim anyway?

It's also plain wrong to say that I don't care about being towny. I care about being towny all the time as any alignment. I get positively giddy when I make a play makes me look like town. I'm sure you can find lots of evidence for this.

5) Voting actions on Awaclus make sense as town, but they also make sense for someone in Ferengi that is skum knowing Awaclus was Town (one less to deal with).
A scum!Ferengi would not know that Awaclus is town. Also scum would much rather get rid of some player with an actual chance of being a dangerous PR.

6) This is exactly the point in time of the game I would expect a skum team to make a bold play in order to dictate lynch candidates, or at the minimum remove themselves from the pool.
Where does my post dictate lynch candidates? It should also be obvious rereading me that the decision to make this play was made D2, not D3.

I completely disagree that this claim was helpful. It has told us essentially nothing. It has just given skum that is not apart of Faust's  team a reason to NOT target Faust.
It is good if scum has incentive not to target me. That makes it more likely that they will target other scum.

PPE 3
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1468 on: March 14, 2019, 06:27:29 am »

Second, Ferengi claim is beneficial to some extent, as we can ensure that the SK Cop investigates someone who isn't already guaranteed to be non-SK. I debated whether this was worth claiming for back in D1, but decided it wasn't then. Now the potential target pool is smaller and remvoing more people from it more effective, and did I mention I had to claim anyway?

Did you forget about the changes to the setup? You've made this mistake twice now. Once you said "odds of SK are 2/3" which is something joth changed, and now you forgot SK cop's even night!
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1469 on: March 14, 2019, 06:30:13 am »

Second, Ferengi claim is beneficial to some extent, as we can ensure that the SK Cop investigates someone who isn't already guaranteed to be non-SK. I debated whether this was worth claiming for back in D1, but decided it wasn't then. Now the potential target pool is smaller and remvoing more people from it more effective, and did I mention I had to claim anyway?

Did you forget about the changes to the setup? You've made this mistake twice now. Once you said "odds of SK are 2/3" which is something joth changed, and now you forgot SK cop's even night!
Where does it say that the odds of SK are not 2/3?

You're right about the SK Cop though. For some reason I thought it was odd night. I swear I even looked up that stuff during D1, and ever since was convinced of it being odd night.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1470 on: March 14, 2019, 06:34:55 am »

"I had another thought about the setup. I’m going to pick the scum configuration with 2 coin flips rather than randomly choosing two of three teams. I think it’s better that it’s 50/50 SK+scum or scumx2 rather than 33/66 so town doesn’t get a “default assumption”." - #11

I know Space caught on this, so I kinda wanna hear what they think of it.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1471 on: March 14, 2019, 07:28:35 am »

Quick reread of chicken because he's weird made me conclude:

- He's mad lurking.

- Gives barely any reasons for his reads.

- Did not even mention shraeye.

So I doubt he's Maquis. Should I withold my reread conclusions? I don't wanna make a big post with them, that's too hard on mobile, but not sure if these quickies should be shared...
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1472 on: March 14, 2019, 07:43:01 am »

Share everything, hiding thoughts from us is scummy
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1473 on: March 14, 2019, 08:08:14 am »

Share everything, hiding thoughts from us is scummy
No.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Night 2)
« Reply #1474 on: March 14, 2019, 08:55:37 am »

How likely do people who know Joth well think it is for him to have rolled a game, landed in a three-plus-one scum scenario, then decided to assign the three-person faction the purple colour, saving the more traditional red flip colour for the singleton SK?
Any reasonable mod would have determined colours prior to rolling the setup.

Your statement does not actually answer my question ;-)

Also, I think using the traditional red and purple for the two scum/SK colours, randomising them after the teams are rolled, is totally in line with perfect modding, and yet is not the same as your "any reasonable mod" protocol above.
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