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[EFHW]

In looking for an explanation of Jimmmmm's nk, we should consider anyone following the Czech mafia game, since he was a key factor in the 3 person lylo at the end. I was going to consider the scumteam, but it turns out it was me/LL, joth and Dylan.

[shraeye]

Here's my main problem with Awaclus's reasoning right now.

More discussion means scum is forced to lie more. They have to think about the information they have versus the information they're supposed to have, and sometimes they mess up. They have to justify their votes, and if their real reason for voting is help their own wincon, they have to come up with a lie. The more we force scum to lie, the more likely we are to catch them in a lie.

So letting each town player draw they're own conclusions and encouraging votes with no explanation attached just lets scum hide. I know Awaclus knows this, so it feels to me like Awaclus is just trying to justify his own scummy behavior and enable scummy behavior from others.

Yes.  Yeah. Yup.

[shraeye]

I am contributing, where I have things to say. I am just very succinct! I gave up on rereading the thread, though. It was too much of a slog. So I don't have many things to say about the past. I am planning to do targeted rereads of you and e.

You should absolutely reread me faust and Awaclus too, otherwise you'll be useless today.

Ok, why did you just narrow down the list to 3 people while you are still voting for somebody else??

[MiX]

I am contributing, where I have things to say. I am just very succinct! I gave up on rereading the thread, though. It was too much of a slog. So I don't have many things to say about the past. I am planning to do targeted rereads of you and e.

You should absolutely reread me faust and Awaclus too, otherwise you'll be useless today.

Ok, why did you just narrow down the list to 3 people while you are still voting for somebody else??

Because...good point! Hmm. I wasn't that confident about Swan yet...I guess? Can't really answer that...I really didn't think about people sheeping my case, especially with all the heat I had...but that's stupid, I should think higher of myself. I do know that I mentioned those 3 because they were the people I wanted to hear EFHW talk about...but Swan should've also been included there.

[shraeye]

I reread e. Totally seems like e!e.  One clashy note was in 1207 he says "the other team," but we don't know there are two teams. So this puts him maybe on an SK suspect list. His analyzing the nk's assuming teams distracts town from considering there being an SK. His scumhunting seems legit. He's being pretty towny, which isn't the best strategy for SK, so meh.

Yeah, baked into his analysis was a definite " TEAMS are making these kills" bias.  My first reaction was to think he was on a team, but I guess it does make the most sense from SK, as they are the only ones not paranoid about what invisible evil lurks in their dreams.

[MiX]

I've done a first round of wagon-gazing. There aren't many occasions on D1 where more than two of the green names (including my own, from my PoV) are interacting with the same wagon, with the exception of a five-person wagon on e.

At its peak, the wagon is:
2.71828..... (5): mcmcsalot, LaLight, Robz888, Awaclus, WestCoastDidds

So given that it's stable for almost 80 posts, it seems pretty likely that at least one of e, LL, Awaclus or Didds is scum.

Really like this wagon grab by Space, and especially since I know I am town it does add extra suspicion to WCD, Awaclus, and LaLightEFHW

This was the third part of the VCA (second was LL/Space wagon) but Space had already done this (and I had nothing to add), I agree with it but I wouldn't want to lynch e today. EFHW is a great information lynch, Didds is on the Robz wagon part and Awaclus is Awaclus, I already talked about them.


Everyone scumreading me: what, exactly, do you think town!me would do instead? I really don't like how we're all converging to 2 wagons, seems like a very easy way to remove pressure off Swan and faust, which are now my top scumreads because of this. I guess I'll have to go for Awaclus, but I still prefer lynching scumreads more than someone everyone loooooves to lynch.

Swan's D1's pretty weird, he starts by saying setup talk is scum's prefered topic, then proceed to talk about setup for a while, then goes to a NAI topic...and then does 3 things: says Glooble is town, asks chicken some stuff, and votes Robz. Not to say that he was lurking, just...he seems to be doing nothing. The vast majority of his posts are about the setup or the MiX!Didds thing and he barely interacts with anyone (essencially just chicken). His second vote is his last one where he doesn't even say what he thinks about LL or Space, he simply drops a vote and goes...I don't want to scumread him based on activity, but still...

Does the above describe town!Swan or scum!Swan? It's scummy but maybe it's coherent with what town!Swan usually does...although I doubt it. I can't promise anything, but I'll try to metaread Swan untill deadline, hopefully it's not to late to change my/town's mind (depending on what conclusion I get)...


We should start thinking about deadline: who'll be avaiable? I should be able to make some phone posts to move my vote around if necessary.

[EFHW]

What information would you gain from my lynch?

[MiX]

What information would you gain from my lynch?

LL was a very important wagon D1 and I would love to know if you're town or scum.

[EFHW]

What information would you gain from my lynch?

LL was a very important wagon D1 and I would love to know if you're town or scum.

All you had to do was ask! I'm town.

[EFHW]

Have now reread Glooble and I noticed some patterns. I haven't played with him before, though, so input from those who have would be welcome.

First, he does a lot of advice-giving to town. "Remember" and "keep in mind" come up several times. It seems like he is trying to seem pro-town. His extra attention to deadlines can be a scum trying to look town trait as well. He makes many statements about how to play, why information is important, etc and gets in a couple arguments about these. Trying to look super virtuous?

Second, He does take some stances on people, not just playing philosophies. He pushes Jimmmmm most of Day 1, for lurking and being low-effort and hedgy. Late in Day 1 he switches to Lalight, who he sees as playing very similarly to Jimmmmm. Reluctantly votes for Robz. Scum!Glooble could be responsible for the Jimmmmm nk, if scum are looking to kill other scum. I do think he is scum-hunting, but that's NAI for this game.

Third, lately he's upset with Awaclus. Something we all have to go through. He seems determined to change how Awaclus plays, which seems unlikely to work out.

Point 1 leads me to vote: Glooble.

[Glooble]

Have now reread Glooble and I noticed some patterns. I haven't played with him before, though, so input from those who have would be welcome.

First, he does a lot of advice-giving to town. "Remember" and "keep in mind" come up several times. It seems like he is trying to seem pro-town. His extra attention to deadlines can be a scum trying to look town trait as well. He makes many statements about how to play, why information is important, etc and gets in a couple arguments about these. Trying to look super virtuous?

Second, He does take some stances on people, not just playing philosophies. He pushes Jimmmmm most of Day 1, for lurking and being low-effort and hedgy. Late in Day 1 he switches to Lalight, who he sees as playing very similarly to Jimmmmm. Reluctantly votes for Robz. Scum!Glooble could be responsible for the Jimmmmm nk, if scum are looking to kill other scum. I do think he is scum-hunting, but that's NAI for this game.

Third, lately he's upset with Awaclus. Something we all have to go through. He seems determined to change how Awaclus plays, which seems unlikely to work out.

Point 1 leads me to vote: Glooble.

I don't really have much of a response to this because I don't think it really merits one. I will say my concern about the deadline today is motivated by the fact that not worrying about the deadline day one led us to a bad lynch.

[SpaceAnemone]

Question for you, faust: What did you think of my comment that it would be useful to have baseline numbers for the likelihood of at least one scum in a set of n players? Do you agree that it would be town-useful info to have? If so, have you not followed up on it because you too are sorely strapped for time? Or do you think it's more useful to scum than town, but for some reason have decided not to scumread me for suggesting that it would be useful?

I don't think it is particularly useful for anyone. It doesn't hurt, but man there are better things you could do with your time. Calculating the expected number of scum in the setup is already nontrivial because you have to factor in that we had 2 town kills, which makes SK more likely.

Meh, that seemed the most likely answer from you, because you need to justify your position somehow.

I disagree that it's not useful, because the chance of at least one scum in a group of four players seems unintuitively high to me, at about 79% if we're in a four-scum game, and 93% if it's a six-scum game.

It means even if I could put a claim on my wagon analysis (e.g. that I'm right about sets containing at least one scum maybe 80% of the time; which is not a claim I currently have evidence to support), it's not actually offering significantly much above the baseline.

[SpaceAnemone]

Really like this wagon grab by Space, and especially since I know I am town it does add extra suspicion to WCD, Awaclus, and LaLightEFHW

Thank you! Have you noticed that there appears to be a better-than-2/3 chance of finding at least one scum in any group of 3 players, though? I'm pretty sure you're also a mathsy person, right?

[Glooble]

Ok, faust reread incoming. I said I was gonna do this, so I'm going to, even though the faust lynch is kind off the table now Faust is the one pushing hard to lynch Awaclus, so it's helpful to me to check on how much I trust faust.

First big faust event is his asking Gul Dukat to claim. I agree with this. We saw in RMM51 how a hated townie can screw up the LYLO math, it's a good thing to be aware of upfront, especially combined with the godfather and not wanting to waste cop investigations. Town points.

Then when UE claims he wants to lynch him right away, until he is reminded that the UB will inherit the hated, when he backs off. Null points- its a complicated setup, I'll buy that he forgot about the UB.

Argues with UoS's advice about Garak. I agree with his logic here, so town points I guess?

Reminds people about the setup (the SK is bulletproof) and argues the scum would rather kill town than other scum. Slight scum points maybe- scum!faust is more likely to be thinking about this stuff- but idk, seems weak.

How can you assert towniness based on what was at that point two in-game posts? :-P

If it is possible that 200 000 posts give you an indication of a person's alignment, then it is equally possible that 2 do.

I just want to say I have no idea what this means.

Explains that he wanted to lynch Uncle essentially as a policy lynch. Townie to me, could easily see how others would perceive this move as scummy, it sort of depends on your day one philosophy. We'll call it null.

I don't get anything from the next few posts. Argues with Space about confusing post above. Wants to know if people really find chicken scummy or just lurky.

Then this Jimmm vote:

When I saw the 2 votes thing I assumed there was a claim I hadn't seen.

Great, so everyone gets to do "let's claim what roles we do/do not have" game.

Vote: Jimmmmm because there is no reason town should make that post.

As far as I can tell, Jimmm was confused by some poorly-chosen wording that made it look a little like MiX had claimed Kai Winn. While I agree there's no reason for town!Jimmm to make that post (thereby confirming that he is not Kai Winn.) It doesn't make any more sense for scum!Jimmmm to do it. It's not really going to encourage other players to start claiming randomly as faust seems to imply. Jimmm's confirmation that he is not one role seems way more like carelessness than malice. So minor scum points to faust for this vote.

48 hours to deadline, he tries to get people to consolidate their votes. Slightly townie? Null given that this is multiball? Idk.

Oh hey that Jimmmm vote looked scummy to me at the time I guess? I totally forgot. Faust's explanation makes sense, still don't agree with the particulars but I understand it.

Up for lynching LaLight or Jimmm. Can't disagree as I was in the same position at that point. Lurker lynches are easy cover for scum but they're also a sensible compromise lynch for town that's coming up against a deadline.

Tries to start a counterwagon on Space. I think this is townie given that Robz turned out to be town? Ok, so that's day one. So far I still think faust is most likely town.

TL;DR I think faust is probably town, so I'm happy to stay on the Awaclus wagon.

[SpaceAnemone]

I've just re-read WCD, since she was the person e was suggesting a re-read of based on my wagon-gazing. I can't say that anything about her sticks out as scummy to me. I had a pretty solid townread on her even in my paranoid not-completely-town state in RMM51 that lasted till I started getting paranoid about everything. I think trusting my gut with her for now makes sense, at least until she's shown that she can definitely pull off this level of townie-feeling-ness as scum.

I've yet to read Glooble's faust re-read, because faust is another player I want to read just now.

[WestCoastDidds]

I had a pretty solid  I think trusting my gut with her for now makes sense, at least until she's shown that she can definitely pull off this level of townie-feeling-ness as scum.

This made me laugh and laugh. I like that you allow the possibility for me to be masterful, while acknowledging that is very likely not the case. Ha!

[Glooble]

Unofficial vote count:

MiX (5): raerae, Awaclus, chickenwarlord, ashersky, UmbrageOfSnow
Awaclus (5): faust, WestCoastDidds, shraeye, Glooble, UncleEurope
DatSwan (1): MiX
Glooble (1): EFHW

Not voting (3): 2.71828....., SpaceAnemone,DatSwan

BtW I will be available at deadline, or at least close to it, and able to move around. Although I won't put my vote on a player I think is town.

I'm uncertain if I would switch to MiX were he to become the leading wagon. He's so stream of consciousness, and I don't know if that's "look at me, I'm an open book explaining everything" towny or "I write so much that rereading me is incredibly intimidating and I can rationalize anything I want to do with lots and lots of words" scummy. Realizing I've kind of been a wall-of-text poster myself this game, but I limit myself to roughly one wall a day.

[Swowl]

I've done a first round of wagon-gazing. There aren't many occasions on D1 where more than two of the green names (including my own, from my PoV) are interacting with the same wagon, with the exception of a five-person wagon on e.

At its peak, the wagon is:
2.71828..... (5): mcmcsalot, LaLight, Robz888, Awaclus, WestCoastDidds

So given that it's stable for almost 80 posts, it seems pretty likely that at least one of e, LL, Awaclus or Didds is scum.

Really like this wagon grab by Space, and especially since I know I am town it does add extra suspicion to WCD, Awaclus, and LaLightEFHW

This was the third part of the VCA (second was LL/Space wagon) but Space had already done this (and I had nothing to add), I agree with it but I wouldn't want to lynch e today. EFHW is a great information lynch, Didds is on the Robz wagon part and Awaclus is Awaclus, I already talked about them.


Everyone scumreading me: what, exactly, do you think town!me would do instead? I really don't like how we're all converging to 2 wagons, seems like a very easy way to remove pressure off Swan and faust, which are now my top scumreads because of this. I guess I'll have to go for Awaclus, but I still prefer lynching scumreads more than someone everyone loooooves to lynch.

Swan's D1's pretty weird, he starts by saying setup talk is scum's prefered topic, then proceed to talk about setup for a while, then goes to a NAI topic...and then does 3 things: says Glooble is town, asks chicken some stuff, and votes Robz. Not to say that he was lurking, just...he seems to be doing nothing. The vast majority of his posts are about the setup or the MiX!Didds thing and he barely interacts with anyone (essencially just chicken). His second vote is his last one where he doesn't even say what he thinks about LL or Space, he simply drops a vote and goes...I don't want to scumread him based on activity, but still...

Does the above describe town!Swan or scum!Swan? It's scummy but maybe it's coherent with what town!Swan usually does...although I doubt it. I can't promise anything, but I'll try to metaread Swan untill deadline, hopefully it's not to late to change my/town's mind (depending on what conclusion I get)...


We should start thinking about deadline: who'll be avaiable? I should be able to make some phone posts to move my vote around if necessary.

I stand by my concept of "skum's favorite topic is set up", for the reasons I mentioned. That does not go to say that it is not merited at some points. I was late to the game, when I got in and read back almost all that had been discussed was set up based. This led me to believe there was most likely some skum motivation in the discussion.

I would really enjoy it if we could find a way to bury hatchet here so to speak. Tell me what you are looking for in meta diving and I will give you the games. This is my defn of lazy/busy town. Not proud of it, but it is.

[Swowl]

I am not a fan of any of the current options. I am iso-ing a few others now to try and find something better. If I have to, I go Awaclus over MiX.

I will be around up to like 3 hours before DL. Sorry - but DL is Monday at 5am my time.

[SpaceAnemone]

My own faust re-read:

Glooble and faust had some early interaction about whether the IC should claim, after faust had suggested that both Dukat and the IC might want to out themselves D1. Faust says a lot of things that make a lot of town sense, including that scum would want to kill other scummy-seeming scum during the day with the lynch, rather than necessarily at night. That shows a certain amount of having thought about this (or at least about multiball setups), but I don't think that's alignment-indicative for faust in the slightest.

Faust at #306: "Note also that the SK (which has a 2/3 chance of existing) is Bulletproof, so scum has further incentive not to shoot scummy people, and the SK has no incentive to shoot scum."

I didn't get a good townie vibe from the interaction I had with him where he made a remark about my surprise over someone having a two-post read, then later seemed to be expressing surprise about a two-post read himself. That ended with faust saying "but well it is D1", which is a bit of an empty explanation if there was a finer point to his argument that I just missed. On the plus side, I think scum people generally worry more about consistency than townies, so this isn't necessarily evidence for scum!faust.

I am reminded by faust's comments that there was a slight "e vs Jimmmmm" thing being talked about in D1. Could framing e be part of the motive behind a Jimmmmm NK, or was that too insignificant a thing in the end? (I can't remember, and don't currently want to deviate too much from my faust re-read).

I apparently missed the point that faust claimed my D1 MiX case was not relevant to MiX's alignment. Obviously, I think it was a fully valid case, because if a person is clearly acting, they are more likely to be hiding something (like a non-town alignment) than a person who reads as very natural. And a lot of stuff MiX has posted has been very much a performance.

The deal with raerae seemed quite playful and relaxed.. not too scummy, and in a game this big, making a deal not to vote one person for one day doesn't seem to have too big a downside.

Oh yeah.. he actually tried to get a wagon going on me at #832. I have to give him a little omgus for that at least. Grr. OTOH, he was objecting to the wording of something I wrote at 0230 in the morning. Why am I only able to find time to do re-reads at stupid-o'clock? (It's after 1am right now as I type this). That wagon only got up to three people (faust, Eddie and MiX), so nothing too scary or worthwhile analysing, except that I might want to look more at the people on it.

Makes the obligatory "still alive" post at the opening of D2. I think that's NAI. Hints at NK analysis being more useful than normal. I agree that the off-wagon kill is interesting, especially because it's on a single-vote person.

His comment about raerae and Shraeye's play seems to have been disproven a bit later on. It's weirdly unguarded, and he also admits to finding things tedious to read and to skimming... I'd find cherry-picking a bit suspicious, but I guess this seems more like careless town than manipulative scum.

Now comparing and contrasting with Glooble's post:

I don't get what was confusing about the "2 vs 200 000" exchange faust and I had. I'd expressed surprise that someone had a read on someone else (was it Ash?) who's only made two in-game posts, and faust said that if it's possible to get a read from 200 000 then it's possible to get a read from two. Then a little later on, he said something that was in effect complaining about a scumread over two posts, so I tried making his point back at him.. I meant it to be jokey but he didn't really seem to take it that way. BTW, he's right that since there's no predefined amount of information in a post, it's kind of deceptive to try to base anything on "number of posts" as a concept. I still think declaring any kind of read on a person based on two posts is not going to be reliable the vast majority of the time...

As for Glooble's reason for townreading Robz for trying to start a wagon on me, I guess it's viable as reasons go. This is a multi-ball setup, so faust couldn't actually have known that Robz was town for sure, nor that I'm town, so I guess scum!faust is more likely to be happy about getting Robz lynched over me, instead of deviating to try to save someone he was more sure was town.

[SpaceAnemone]

I think UncleEurope needs a re-read from me, since he was one of the people on my wagon D1. It's also interesting that the off-Robz-wagon kill wasn't even on my wagon, which was the next biggest thing.

Sleep now, though!

[ashersky]

In addition to the leading wagons, would still support faust or 2.7.  Faust for previous reasons, 2.7 for scumslipping (teams).

[EFHW]

In addition to the leading wagons, would still support faust or 2.7.  Faust for previous reasons, 2.7 for scumslipping (teams).

How could that be a scumslip?

[faust]

Then this Jimmm vote:

When I saw the 2 votes thing I assumed there was a claim I hadn't seen.

Great, so everyone gets to do "let's claim what roles we do/do not have" game.

Vote: Jimmmmm because there is no reason town should make that post.

As far as I can tell, Jimmm was confused by some poorly-chosen wording that made it look a little like MiX had claimed Kai Winn. While I agree there's no reason for town!Jimmm to make that post (thereby confirming that he is not Kai Winn.) It doesn't make any more sense for scum!Jimmmm to do it. It's not really going to encourage other players to start claiming randomly as faust seems to imply. Jimmm's confirmation that he is not one role seems way more like carelessness than malice. So minor scum points to faust for this vote.

I just realiyed that the Jimmmmm post here means that scum knew he wasn|t Kai Winn and that might have been enough to push them towards killing him.

[faust]

Uh, sorry for the strange typos, I reconfigured my laptop and now it starts out with English keyboard and I am not quite yet used to it.