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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 377448 times)

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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #300 on: February 26, 2019, 12:54:15 am »

i.e. if we lynch faust and he flips town, I'm really going to suspect e, but if he flips scum his partner is probably UE.

Is that just a random example or do you actually believe that?

It was a semi-random example, I wanted an example and I tried to think of something that kind of made sense off the top of my head, was sort of hoping someone would jump on me for "lining up mislynches" over it. On reflection I don't feel like e's vote on you is any scummier if you're town, or really particularly scummy at all. But the UE as a possible partner interaction thing is more of a real thing I'd suspect upon your scum flip, but like a point against rather than vote-worthy all by itself.
See, that one I don't buy. If Eddie was scum and I his partner, and we decided to claim Gul Dukat, why on earth would I want to steal his thunder by proposing the plan before he ever had a chance to post?
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #301 on: February 26, 2019, 12:56:28 am »

I fail to see why Garak should target 2 scumreads: shouldn't it be 1 townread and 1 scumread? Otherwise it's unlikely scum will target a scummy-looking person, right? Maybe the multiball makes that a thing?

Exactly, scum would prefer to kill the other scumteam. Coincidentally town would prefer for scum to kill the other scum, so what scum really want is to kill the other scum while not getting killed themselves.
No, scum wants to kill players at night that they cannot get lynched during the Day.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #302 on: February 26, 2019, 12:56:59 am »

wait, MiX is voting for you?  then that post is double suspicious.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #303 on: February 26, 2019, 12:57:51 am »

GARAK
is plain bad advice. Bus Driver should only ever be used to protect a claimed Cop or IC. So target them, swap with another player (that you think is scum).

Is your advice necessarily any better given that scummy players are likely to be targeted for an NK by another scum faction?
They're not. If a person is scummy, scum would much prefer to keep them around and lynch them the next Day, because that is one more lynch not on their team and might even give them towncred.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #304 on: February 26, 2019, 01:15:10 am »

I was about to vote for MiX, then I remembered that I promised myself less tunnelling. 

Mix, your thing with e's townread of me was weird, but I understood you better when you explained it.

Your thing with faust is now weird.  Can you explain what your vote is doing there? 

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #305 on: February 26, 2019, 01:48:55 am »

I think faust is wrong here. In Multiball (and games with know night kills other than the scum team’s), scum want to remove that threat first. Lynchable vs. not is secondary. So I think here hitting “other scum or vig” is scum’s preference.

The problem with bus driving important roles or towny players is that you are providing an accidental lane to them being targeted at night, depending on your reads. Say you drive a cop with a scumread and different scum are shooting for said scum read (or just using crumbs to go for the cop). 

At the least, you need everyone to crumb a la snow’s idea, to provide cover.

I think directing the drive is a fool’s errand.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #306 on: February 26, 2019, 02:08:19 am »

Note also that the SK (which has a 2/3 chance of existing) is Bulletproof, so scum has further incentive not to shoot scummy people, and the SK has no incentive to shoot scum.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #307 on: February 26, 2019, 03:59:50 am »


Hey DatSwan!

If I told you there was scum in {mcmcs, Glooble, Umbrage, Awaclus, Jimmmm}, would you think I was right or wrong?

Do I think there is skum on Day 1 of a grouping of 5 players in a 18 player game where there is GTD to be a minimum of 4 skum? I mean yes - I don't even need to read the question, I just assume the likelihood of be being correct on any given 5 players is pretty high.

I am however assuming you would like a specification - in which case, I don't really have an answer...

I will always vote for one person in your pool - regardless of the situation.
I think one person in your pool is town for sure as I can be at this point.
I think one person is townish but on my radar.
And I have no opinion on the other two to this point.

So, I guess IDK. I think you would be right based on the fact it would be improbable for you to be wrong. but you also picked an annoyingly frustrating set of players for me to judge. Always down for an Awaclus lynch though if you want to narrow it down.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #308 on: February 26, 2019, 04:04:54 am »

Hated works until it would take that many votes to work in total, like when three people are left alive, as far as I understand it.

Ah ok that makes more sense than what I was thinking... Upon further thought, what I was thinking made 0 sense at all.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #309 on: February 26, 2019, 04:07:12 am »


Hey DatSwan!

If I told you there was scum in {mcmcs, Glooble, Umbrage, Awaclus, Jimmmm}, would you think I was right or wrong?

wait I want follow up now that I have thought about it.

Same question back at you.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #310 on: February 26, 2019, 04:18:08 am »

I fail to see why Garak should target 2 scumreads: shouldn't it be 1 townread and 1 scumread? Otherwise it's unlikely scum will target a scummy-looking person, right? Maybe the multiball makes that a thing?

Exactly, scum would prefer to kill the other scumteam. Coincidentally town would prefer for scum to kill the other scum, so what scum really want is to kill the other scum while not getting killed themselves.
No, scum wants to kill players at night that they cannot get lynched during the Day.

Not arguing - in a set up where there is one Skum team and one other faction like SK... then yeah. I think everyone would agree the best way to move forward (as skum) would be to ignore the SK concept and focus on Town threats.
But the set up here is unknown and different. There is either:
- Team of 3 Skum and 1 SK
or
- 2x Teams of 3 Skum
(As I understand the set up notes).

If there are two skum teams then at this point they would not know and either team could find it more valuable to kill a likely skum player (that isn't of their faction) as opposed to searching for town threats.
Especially considering if there are two skum teams the likelihood that a cop finds skum is equal for their opposing faction as it is for them to be found.

All in all this game, given the set up, I could see it going either way. Skum probably still shoots someone suspicious under the assumption they find either strong Town PR or other skum, but the factor of likelihood of finding other skum should be factored out of theory until we have flips enough to substantiate what the skum set up is.

My point is that we should not speculate now on kill targets for skum. Too much WIFOM. When we get enough flips to determine something, then we can/should address it.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #311 on: February 26, 2019, 04:20:33 am »

I think faust is wrong here. In Multiball (and games with know night kills other than the scum team’s), scum want to remove that threat first. Lynchable vs. not is secondary. So I think here hitting “other scum or vig” is scum’s preference.

The problem with bus driving important roles or towny players is that you are providing an accidental lane to them being targeted at night, depending on your reads. Say you drive a cop with a scumread and different scum are shooting for said scum read (or just using crumbs to go for the cop). 

At the least, you need everyone to crumb a la snow’s idea, to provide cover.

I think directing the drive is a fool’s errand.

So, we woke up tomorrow with the knowledge that there is more than one Skum Team - Do you think from that point forward Skum would focus on Town PRs or on the other Skum Team when choosing their NK?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #312 on: February 26, 2019, 04:27:40 am »

Here's the deal with no-lynch. 


Nope; but I'll never stop trying.

Even if No Lynch was a viable option, you shouldn't try to convince people of it, that'll destroy D1 if no one wants a lynch. Since it's not even a good option, it's anti-town to propose that idea. Come back near deadline, then it will be useful.

I'm not trying to get people to vote:nolynch right this minute. What I am heavily suggesting and will never stop suggesting is that no lynch is a viable end to Day1.  It should be in our arsenal.  There are 18 viable ends to the day (because lynching UncleEurope on Day1 is not an option).

There are people who are soooooo against no-lynch that they will literally vote for their biggest townread to ensure that "at least some lynch goes through."  That's extremist and absurd.  Less extreme, but equally absurd is people who will vote for regular townreads all in the name of #mustlynch.

Easier to get dead scum if we lynch, therefore lynching is good. Yes, I do stand by that.
Not just you, but others as well, quote statistics like they're Wayne Gretsky (you miss 100% of the shots you don't take).  sure the probability of a random choice hitting scum is 22%-33%, and the probability of a no-lynch hitting scum is 0%.  But that's not the point. 
A) LYNCHES ARE NOT RANDOM  (I literally can't stress this enough)
B) people act like the only metric worth measuring is is-scum-dead.  There is value in having town alive, and that has to be factored in if you insist on only using math. 


WestCoastDidds has a good point, but also mentions a wrong one people have
The odds we have on a first day lynch are anywhere from 22-33% depending on the loadout we got. These SEEM like decent stab in the dark odds, but right now it seems unlikely that we'll reach any sort of agreement on who to target. I'm all for experimenting with no lynch and hoping scum bump toes in the night.

It seems unlikely that we’ll reach a consensus, yet it usually happens. Kind of wild! We still have lots of time to interact and pay attention so even if it seems impossible that half of us would agree to lynch one person now, we will likely get there by the deadline. Partly because most of us (based on my limited knowledge of a handful of games) will want a lynch, so as it gets closer to the deadline there will be some converging. And how we converge (or not) helps us have more to analyze in D2.

We could very much reach a consensus; it happens a lot.  But please please please PLEASE for the love of all things coffee-related, do not converge JUST so a lynch will happen.  There could be days in the future where it is more essential to lynch, many factors affect stuff like this.  But Day1, in an 18 player game, with 2 scumteams, and multiple roles that can save....that's checks every single box on the "is it reasonable to nolynch" survey.

It INFURIATES me that people see ~25% vs. 0% and then just mindlessly echo "ALWAYS lynch, ALWAYS lynch, ALWAYS lynch".  The issue is much more intricate than ~25% vs 0%.
Ok, that's off my chest.  I swear I won't bring up no-lynching again for a while.

Is it your opinion that as town it is potentially more advantageous on to forego a Day 1 lynch thus guaranteeing a saved potential mis-lynch, than having said lynch to go through and be able to be used later in the game?

Your logic makes perfect sense in regards to the here and now, but go and look at any town victory ever that goes through Day 4 - Day 6+.... it all comes back to how people interact with one and other. To remove the first of those interactions, the most purest of those interactions... is just I mean a bad idea.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #313 on: February 26, 2019, 05:04:31 am »

Your logic makes perfect sense in regards to the here and now, but go and look at any town victory ever that goes through Day 4 - Day 6+.... it all comes back to how people interact with one and other. To remove the first of those interactions, the most purest of those interactions... is just I mean a bad idea.
This is a gross misrepresentation. shraeye explicitly said that he does not want us to stop interaction, or push through a no lynch right away.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (PMs sent. Night 0)
« Reply #314 on: February 26, 2019, 06:30:33 am »

Anyway, care to guess why I voted for faust?

You missed the fact that he unvoted Uncle, didn't you?

Now, serious talk: anyone who knows Robz's meta, does he analyze setups? Does he like to break setups? Is he usually good at theory talk in general?

So, uncle claimed...well that makes him unlynchable, so he might as well be the IC for this day, right?

Vote: raerae, I happen to like e's reason to townread shraeye, and your vote seems like a good way to not play RVS, since he's not dying today.

And why can't shraeye be our lunch today? He seems just as on the table as everybody else?

@MiX, you never answered this, why can't shraeye be our lynch today?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #315 on: February 26, 2019, 06:42:05 am »

Shraeye, thanks for explaining your feelings on no lynch a little better. I find you much less scummy now.

A) LYNCHES ARE NOT RANDOM  (I literally can't stress this enough)
B) people act like the only metric worth measuring is is-scum-dead.  There is value in having town alive, and that has to be factored in if you insist on only using math.  .

What’s not random about a day one lynch? People form reads on the flimsiest evidence and cling to them. I don’t trust my own day one reads and I can’t trust anyone else’s because I have no evidence anyone else is town. It might not be completely random, but it’s pretty close.

I think the more useful metric than dead town or alive scum is information. Once we know someone’s alignment, we can look back and what they said, what was said to them, and what was said about them and that’s when our reads become worth something. Chance of hitting scum scum is a viable argument against no lynch, but so is “more useful data points.”
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #316 on: February 26, 2019, 06:51:15 am »

My few thoughts so far:

-ash is Towny
-UoS is probably Towny
-shraeye is scummy
-count me against no-lynching

Vote: shraeye

I had to go remind myself that Ashersky was even in the game, because I'd forgotten, even though I responded to him earlier!

How can you assert towniness based on what was at that point two in-game posts? :-P
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #317 on: February 26, 2019, 06:54:33 am »

How can you assert towniness based on what was at that point two in-game posts? :-P
If it is possible that 200 000 posts give you an indication of a person's alignment, then it is equally possible that 2 do.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #318 on: February 26, 2019, 09:17:42 am »

Well Robz seems to be consistent with his meta, although it's what I expected from scum!robz, it's just null, so UnFoS.

@Jimmmmm, would you consider yourself a good D1 player? What's your scum meta?

I have a very strong feeling shraeye's big and abundant posts about nolynch exist solely for towncred. But it's working...I still think he's town. This is so weeeeird...

About faust:
Quote from: UmbrageOfSnow link=topic=19459.msg790103#msg790103  date=1551053028
I'd rather talk about how faust is scum and no one wants to think about why. I'm curious who picks up on what I'm thinking (other than faust) but it doesn't even seem like people care to think about this as a serious read right now.

I was talking about this and e's vote for faust when I asked why people are saying faust is scum. My vote's where it is because I townread e and UoS, and I haven't seen anything scum!faust wouldn't do this game. But Robz is right, so

Vote: Space

For his "how can you townread someone with 2 posts", which is cleverly his meta while justifying lack of reads through D1. Oh, and to answer it, townreads are relative, so if ash did something mildly towny and nothing scummy, that would be enough justification for a townread.

While I'm at it...how come no-one mentioned ash!plans? Severely dissapointed.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #319 on: February 26, 2019, 09:38:44 am »

MiX, as a note please try and use the pronouns in people's signatures if they provide them. Space uses they/ them.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #320 on: February 26, 2019, 09:41:51 am »


Vote: Space

For his "how can you townread someone with 2 posts", which is cleverly his meta while justifying lack of reads through D1. Oh, and to answer it, townreads are relative, so if ash did something mildly towny and nothing scummy, that would be enough justification for a townread.

While I'm at it...how come no-one mentioned ash!plans? Severely dissapointed.

Dude, Space is not a “he”. There is a post from them earlier laying that out clearly. Pay attention to all the things folks say, not just the stuff that matters to you.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #321 on: February 26, 2019, 09:42:27 am »

Vote: raerae, I happen to like e's reason to townread shraeye, and your vote seems like a good way to not play RVS, since he's not dying today.

And why can't shraeye be our lunch today? He seems just as on the table as everybody else?

@MiX, you never answered this, why can't shraeye be our lynch today?

Yes I did...

PPE 1: Because I have an uncanny ability to see the future; with this, I can predict that e won't flip his townread, and I expect to strenghten mine as well. I might be reading too much into this, being early D1 and all, but I use all information we have available.

PPE 2: Gah! I forgot...I knew this would happen, sorry Space, I really don't want you to tak about NAI things. Their and their. There, fixed!
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #322 on: February 26, 2019, 09:45:34 am »


Vote: Space

For his "how can you townread someone with 2 posts", which is cleverly his meta while justifying lack of reads through D1.

How is it that you claim to know my meta, and yet manage to misgender me twice in one sentence? Either you've read my play before, in which case you'll have seen umpteen variations on the statement that I am not at all okay with "he/him" pronouns, or you haven't and are just looking for excuses to throw votes around.

Vote: MiX
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #323 on: February 26, 2019, 09:46:20 am »

Huh.. there was a PPE 3 on that last post of mine, apparently!
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #324 on: February 26, 2019, 09:48:11 am »


Vote: Space

For his "how can you townread someone with 2 posts", which is cleverly his meta while justifying lack of reads through D1.

How is it that you claim to know my meta, and yet manage to misgender me twice in one sentence? Either you've read my play before, in which case you'll have seen umpteen variations on the statement that I am not at all okay with "he/him" pronouns, or you haven't and are just looking for excuses to throw votes around.

Vote: MiX

I DO know that! I've seen games where you play and I've seen you get VERY upset about it. But I'm on mobile and I forgot, I'm sorry. Now, OMGUS?
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