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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 377596 times)

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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #200 on: February 24, 2019, 02:45:39 pm »

Let's quicklynch someone so we can get to Day 2. Who's up?

You want to volunteer??
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #201 on: February 24, 2019, 02:51:10 pm »

Let's quicklynch someone so we can get to Day 2. Who's up?

That'll take a lot of votes...but you can sheep me (raerae) if you want, seems to be the most productive wagon right now.

Currently rereading a lot of past games to see everyone's town and scum meta, hopefully I can come up with something good.

PPE 1: Look who showed up!
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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #202 on: February 24, 2019, 02:53:54 pm »

We could fast! How about no lunch today? I know shraeye is down.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #203 on: February 24, 2019, 02:57:19 pm »

We could fast! How about no lunch today? I know shraeye is down.

No lynch means what UB becomes is random, because we'll probably have 2 deaths. This is the worst outcome.

...but last time I said something about the setup I was wrong. So maybe I miscalculated something? Can anyone confirm the above makes sense?
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #204 on: February 24, 2019, 02:59:58 pm »

We could fast! How about no lunch today? I know shraeye is down.

No lynch means what UB becomes is random, because we'll probably have 2 deaths. This is the worst outcome.

...but last time I said something about the setup I was wrong. So maybe I miscalculated something? Can anyone confirm the above makes sense?
What the UB becomes is random anyway. You mean the rest doesn't know what they become? I doubt that should influence our decision.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #205 on: February 24, 2019, 03:18:48 pm »

We could fast! How about no lunch today? I know shraeye is down.

No lynch means what UB becomes is random, because we'll probably have 2 deaths. This is the worst outcome.

...but last time I said something about the setup I was wrong. So maybe I miscalculated something? Can anyone confirm the above makes sense?
What the UB becomes is random anyway. You mean the rest doesn't know what they become? I doubt that should influence our decision.

Going over the scenarios in my head, I think you're right... There's less information for town, but also for scum: if a cop and a non-cop flip, and he gets non-cop, scum might need to NK him in case he became cop, in which case he deflected a NK from the real cops... I thought I was better at solving setups than this, maybe it's just really good and unbreakable...

The only downside I see is that scum!UB might fakeclaim getting one role with UB while actually getting another. But they would lie about their targets and results anyway, right?

Anyway, assuming the worst, we have 6 scum in 18 players: those are LyLo odds, which are...pretty good, in my opinion. Besides, lynching town (which is the downside of lynching D1) means scum need to target themselves, so overall we would get more dead scum and same dead town, which is obviously a positive. Unless scum want to play endgame multiball...what has happened in other multiball games, do scum try to kill the other team or do they just target town? I would assume they would target each other, thus forcing balance, prisoner's dilemma is strong here.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #206 on: February 24, 2019, 03:47:21 pm »

The traditional argument against no lynch is that the scum still get a kill which is guaranteed to be town, but town is denied a kill which has a chance of being scum. With two teams, though, there is still a chance each nk will be scum from the opposite faction.

I’m not a good math person, but I’m going to do some math anyway just cause I’m bored. Basically we have either 4 or 6 scum. So if the lynch were completely random it would be either a 22% or a 33% chance of hitting scum. Not great odds, but not lynching is a 0% chance.

If we no lynch and we have a Maquis and Mirror Universe team, then each scum team has a 20% chance of hitting the other team (barring roleblocker/doctor shenanigans.) If we have a changeling, the changeling has a 17.6% chance of hitting scum, and the scum team has a 5.88% chance of hitting the changeling (which won’t kill them anyway cause bulletproof.)

If we end up lynching town and we have Maquis and Mirror Universe teams, then each scum team has a 21.4% chance of hitting the other scum team (again barring a lucky protective role.) If we have a changeling, then the changeling has a 18.75% chance to hit scum and the scum team has a 7% chance to uselessly hit the changeling.

If we lynch scum and have two scum teams, the team we hit has a 20% chance of hitting scum and the team we didn’t hit only has a 14.28% chance of hitting scum. If we lynch scum and have a changeling the changeling has a 12.5% chance to hit scum. If we lynch the changeling we hit the jackpot and of course the scum team has 0% of hitting scum (but that’s more than balanced out by the fact that the changeling has a 0% chance of hitting town.

Not sure what I was trying to prove here, but I did all this math and now I don’t want to delete it. Maybe Space or somebody can take this ball and run with it and come up with some more immediately useful numbers.

So long story short, much higher chance there’s some scum dead on day 2 if we lynch than if we don’t. Killing scum is killing scum and killing town slightly increases the odds that scum kills scum. Obviously the worst case scenario is worse if we lynch (three dead town as opposed to 2.) That’s the trade off. I lean towards lynching.

PPE: 1
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #207 on: February 24, 2019, 03:48:29 pm »

Let's quicklynch someone so we can get to Day 2. Who's up?

I am up for it.

Let's lynch faust.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #208 on: February 24, 2019, 03:49:00 pm »

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #209 on: February 24, 2019, 04:05:36 pm »

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1

Time to mass claim.



Then we no lynch.

Come on everybody, let’s do this.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #210 on: February 24, 2019, 04:10:40 pm »

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1

Time to mass claim.



Then we no lynch.

Come on everybody, let’s do this.

Please use your ICness this day to do productive things instead of jokes please.

Vote places, question people, I don't know; go all out, you're not dying today, that's for sure.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #211 on: February 24, 2019, 04:15:14 pm »

People’s trust in me is unaffected by my claim, I am hardly an IC, and the primary reason for me not being lynched today is to not hurt another player, who might even be scum for all we know.

It’s kind of flimsy, honestly.

And I have a vote in a place. I like it where it’s at.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #212 on: February 24, 2019, 04:16:31 pm »

vote: MiX

I happen to like jokes.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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raerae

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #213 on: February 24, 2019, 04:27:46 pm »

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1

Time to mass claim.



Then we no lynch.

Come on everybody, let’s do this.

Please use your ICness this day to do productive things instead of jokes please.

Vote places, question people, I don't know; go all out, you're not dying today, that's for sure.

Disagree, never stop joking. Sprinkle it with serious. Or do whatever you want that makes the game fun for you.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #214 on: February 24, 2019, 04:34:41 pm »

We could fast! How about no lunch today? I know shraeye is down.
I'm diggity down.

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1
Naaaah; it'll be fun!!
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Glooble

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #215 on: February 24, 2019, 04:37:32 pm »

vote: shraeye

Not liking jokes isn't actually scummy, but I think being down for a no lynch even after all my glorious math is.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #216 on: February 24, 2019, 04:40:43 pm »

We could fast! How about no lunch today? I know shraeye is down.

I'm diggity down.

Do I need to present mine and Glooble's reasons for why no lynch is bad? Or do you just like to play contrarian?

Can someone answer this? I'm afraid it was buried in my other post:

what has happened in other multiball games, do scum try to kill the other team or do they just target town? I would assume they would target each other, thus forcing balance, prisoner's dilemma is strong here.

PPE 1: That's just shraeye being shraeye, really...I'm pretty sure that's coherent with the game I've reread, if my memory serves me right.
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shraeye

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #217 on: February 24, 2019, 04:44:23 pm »

Nah, I know from trying many years ago that if you look at the probabilities, it says lynching is slightly better.  But that's assuming everything under the sun is completely random and not affected at all by reads, scum tactics, Bayesian conditioning on all the other nuances that we couldn't possibly calculate.

It's wrong to think it's a "well 53% utility is over 50% so that's obviously the only play" when all the probabilities are done under math-conditions instead of real-world conditions.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #218 on: February 24, 2019, 05:08:50 pm »


Can someone answer this? I'm afraid it was buried in my other post:

what has happened in other multiball games, do scum try to kill the other team or do they just target town? I would assume they would target each other, thus forcing balance, prisoner's dilemma is strong here.


Well, the only multiball game I've played (as far as I remember) was Deep Space Nine mafia version one, which ended with one town and one player from each scum team. The surviving townplayer basically was playing kingmaker.

I was scum in that game. IIRC we tried to get the other scum team lynched, because it gave us towncred and made it look like we were scumhunting (because we were.) For nightkills, we killed people who we thought might be the other scum team, but also people who we thought might be powerful town. Of course that was closed set up. Now that all potential roles are known, I think if I were scum I would want to hit the other scum team. Most of the town PRs just aren't that threatening compared to the possibility of a nightkill.
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #219 on: February 24, 2019, 05:29:17 pm »

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1

This. We're never no lynching here.

Also there is a ton of weird stuff about this setup, why is the theory stuff people want to talk about in Really Verbose Strategizing phase the most basic stuff?
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #220 on: February 24, 2019, 05:39:30 pm »

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1

This. We're never no lynching here.

Also there is a ton of weird stuff about this setup, why is the theory stuff people want to talk about in Really Verbose Strategizing phase the most basic stuff?

If you have some insight on things we can talk about that are pro-town, by all means, state them. I've done my share of setup reading and theorizing, and so far my theories have been proven wrong by faust, so I don't have high hopes for the rest.

I also think the only thing that needed to be discussed D1 was the Hated part, and we got that out of the way...ah, and the UB, also taken care of.

Everything else will make people softclaim (slip) non-X, where X is whatever role we're talking about, like what happened to shraeye.
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Glooble

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #221 on: February 24, 2019, 05:59:32 pm »

And no lynch D1 is basically the most absolute worst thing town could ever do D1

This. We're never no lynching here.

Also there is a ton of weird stuff about this setup, why is the theory stuff people want to talk about in Really Verbose Strategizing phase the most basic stuff?

What weird thing to you want to talk about, Snow?
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I think town!Glooble pointing to something as a scum tell and then shortly thereafter doing that thing is a lot more likely than scum!Glooble doing that.

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #222 on: February 24, 2019, 06:21:30 pm »

Partly I was just finding it weird that people were bringing up the old No Lynch D1 discussion again and acting like they needed to find some theory stuff to talk about, but then weren't talking about anything interesting.

Like "let's make sure to discuss the setup" "Okay, what about it?" "Ummmm... should we No Lynch?"

It's weird. And don't take this the wrong way, MiX, but it's weird for you to talk about your calculations or whatever and then be speculating on the UB being random, like we'd want a cop to claim just so a UB could inherit it or something? I don't think that's what you're suggesting, but it just seems like you haven't put that much thought into this but are kind of acting like you have. And it is actually possible to have a game with no theory discussion, although probably not with this playerlist I guess.

(Also shraeye is wrong about how bad no lynching is, but that's also not worth getting into, it's just a SOMEONE IS WRONG ON THE INTERNET issue and I'm trying not to have that fight.)
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #223 on: February 24, 2019, 06:45:37 pm »

Partly I was just finding it weird that people were bringing up the old No Lynch D1 discussion again and acting like they needed to find some theory stuff to talk about, but then weren't talking about anything interesting.

Like "let's make sure to discuss the setup" "Okay, what about it?" "Ummmm... should we No Lynch?"

It's weird. And don't take this the wrong way, MiX, but it's weird for you to talk about your calculations or whatever and then be speculating on the UB being random, like we'd want a cop to claim just so a UB could inherit it or something? I don't think that's what you're suggesting, but it just seems like you haven't put that much thought into this but are kind of acting like you have. And it is actually possible to have a game with no theory discussion, although probably not with this playerlist I guess.

(Also shraeye is wrong about how bad no lynching is, but that's also not worth getting into, it's just a SOMEONE IS WRONG ON THE INTERNET issue and I'm trying not to have that fight.)

I like your attempt to stimulate conversation: townpoints!

You're the one that's saying that we should discuss the setup, right? Did I miss anyone else say it?

What I wanted was for there to be a lynch D1, so UB's role would be public. That would also mean we could lynch free of claims, since even if someone claims to be a cop we can just lynch him and whoever's the UB becomes cop, so we won't lose any PR day 1. Also I meant "random" as in "we wouldn't know which PR UB became".

No theory discussion is actively bad for town, but we don't need to do everything D1. In fact I think it's detrimental to talk more about it now, because of the slips town will inevitebly make.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 1)
« Reply #224 on: February 24, 2019, 07:01:12 pm »

Other things worth saying at this time:

  • Cops should aim for their scumreads rather than townreads, innocents are at best half useless and possibly completely useless
  • Cops should only claim results on a guilty or if they are about to be lynched
  • Crumbing roles is terrible here and should be avoided
  • Crumbing innocent results should be kept pretty subtle, it's a much bigger deal to out yourself than for us to miss the crumb
  • Sisko should target a scumread every night, hitting an NK well worth the risk of blocking town
  • Sisko shouldn't claim if there are fewer NKs than expected, too many things can do that, but he should heavily suspect his previous night's target
  • Bashir, Garak, Yates, and Winn should really be saving their shots for as late in the game as they think they can manage
  • Garak really needs to crumb his bus driver targets if he uses that one (I would)

I cut a few things I didn't want to say, but everyone should best think about how to use their role to help town (especially scum)

GARAK
Biggest thing is probably that last one, Garak could die on the night he Bus Drives someone, and that casts a lot of suspicion on other PR usage, so in the event of Garak's death, we need to be able to look back and figure out who the targets were, to the point that it's probably worth figuring out who to target before the night starts. Best use of Bus Driver is to attempt to redirect an NK back onto scum, but scum want to kill other scum, so it's a bit complicated here. I'd propose Garak target his top 2 scumreads the night he Bus Drives: if both are scum and one is NKed it's a wash, but if 1 is scum and 1 is town, it potentially saves the town and takes out a scum, and that's more likely than the scum being shot and being redirected onto town, which is obviously possible but the saving town is significantly more likely than random.

Given all that, I think Garak should just make sure to always have a pretty unambiguous top 2 scumreads going into the night and redirect one into the other if he decides to use his shot that night. I think he should hold off on shooting (and not take the Lightning Rod power) as long as possible, but this would significantly limit how many PRs we have to worry about having been redirected and how much WIFOM scum can throw around about it.

To that end, I'm going to make a point of having a very clear top 2 scumreads every night and I think everyone else should as well. And since it's 1-shot, scum don't get any POE out of the hypoclaims here like they would with an ungated power.
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