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[WestCoastDidds]

Remind me again, we're lynching the SK today?

I think the best scenario for town is up lynch Maquis yoday. That was the result of the Mix monster post

[raerae]

Remind me again, we're lynching the SK today?

I think the best scenario for town is up lynch Maquis yoday. That was the result of the Mix monster post

But don't you think the SK tries to kill town then tonight instead of MQ?  I don't see a situation where the SK deliberately makes themselves the only scum available to lynch.

[MiX]

Remind me again, we're lynching the SK today?

I think the best scenario for town is up lynch Maquis yoday. That was the result of the Mix monster post

But don't you think the SK tries to kill town then tonight instead of MQ?  I don't see a situation where the SK deliberately makes themselves the only scum available to lynch.

And if we lynch SK, MQ just kills town for the win. We need to force a 2v1v1 that has the potential to be better than that, and the only lynch that does that is MQ.

@Ash, what do you think about claiming?  With Didds out in the open we really don't have that much left to hide, right? 

Whatever you do, don't claim any non-Garak role.

[MiX]

I like your scum!raerae points

Cool. I'm quoting this because "descriptor!name" is the typical way of using the "!" notation you see around here, at least going back as far as two or three years ago when I started reading.

ash!raerae seems to make more sense than snow!raerae.

And I'm quoting these because as far as I can remember, the only person who does "name!name" notation is Swan, and for some of the rest of us it grates exactly like a grammar mistake :-P

I like to use the same notation for both, but I know the second version isn't well accepted. I don't like to use "/" all the time and "!" already says they're a team as opposed to "/", which seems to imply one of those options. I don't know, does it hurt that much? It's usually unambiguous.

[ashersky]

I think no one should claim from here on out, ever.

We are going to lynch someone, and trying NOT to lynch certain scum is just a weird concept that we can’t really follow. I mean, if someone claims SK at L-1, do we stop?  And then if someone counterclaims?

[MiX]

I think no one should claim from here on out, ever.

We are going to lynch someone, and trying NOT to lynch certain scum is just a weird concept that we can’t really follow. I mean, if someone claims SK at L-1, do we stop?  And then if someone counterclaims?

Easy way to avoid this is to not go after our SK reads, which includes letting Space off the hook today. If people wanna claim SK at L-1, let them, if we get a counterclaim then we nab 2 scum, easy mode. Reminder that town shouldn't lie here.

[WestCoastDidds]

I am 100% not the SK or Maquis, so all of this work is for naught...and the effort put into it makes both Space and MiX seem like they are engaging in smoke-and-mirrors work, but I will try to give them the benefit of the doubt.

I suspect you're witnessing people who are not very good at reads trying to logic their way out of a situation when it's looking bad for their team. At least, it's true for me!

Fair enough. The complexity of this game seems to have some/most of us back on our heels.

As for other things you said, there is a disadvantage to outing any more PRs, and that is that there may be a particular one that's not currently in Maquis hands and that they'd very much like to ensure a win... the more info we give them to narrow it down, the better it is for them. So I think all unclaimed PRs shouldn't claim, and should be careful not to softclaim.

So, here is a question...this coupled with Space's earlier comment about raerae not thinking more town alive is better for us. In the last handful of messages raerae has asked Ash if we should claim, and also said we need to lynch the SK instead of Maquis.  What do you all think is going on here? Is that scummy, or not keeping up, or just not agreeing with the conclusions that are being reached about the best way for town to win. One seems forgetful or a misunderstanding, but the trio... I don't know.

Is this worse that Snow's absence and low level of engagement?

[SpaceAnemone]

As for other things you said, there is a disadvantage to outing any more PRs, and that is that there may be a particular one that's not currently in Maquis hands and that they'd very much like to ensure a win... the more info we give them to narrow it down, the better it is for them. So I think all unclaimed PRs shouldn't claim, and should be careful not to softclaim.

So, here is a question...this coupled with Space's earlier comment about raerae not thinking more town alive is better for us. In the last handful of messages raerae has asked Ash if we should claim, and also said we need to lynch the SK instead of Maquis.  What do you all think is going on here? Is that scummy, or not keeping up, or just not agreeing with the conclusions that are being reached about the best way for town to win. One seems forgetful or a misunderstanding, but the trio... I don't know.

Is this worse that Snow's absence and low level of engagement?

I can't really say anything about Snow's absence. I do know that sometimes people just don't have enough hours in the day.

As for the post from raerae you mentioned, the fact she's appealing to Ash in particular is a bit odd, and is perhaps part of an underlying pattern which is what gave me the feeling that raerae and Ash are in concert.

I don't think it's as clear as MiX's post suggests that killing the SK is worse than killing Maquis: he asserts that 2 town, 1 Maquis and 1 SK is "neutral", whereas I have trouble seeing that as a town win, and Ash has picked up on that too.

To illustrate why 2T, 1M, 1SK is a likely loss, consider what happens even if one of the scums is a correct D7 lynch: N7 starts with 2T and one scum: the expectation is to have 1T and 1 scum alive the next day barring having a still-active PR to save the day. Even if you (Didds) are town, all scums already know that you've announced you're not a good person to target, so in that set of circumstances, you're likely to be the last town standing, and you're also guaranteed not to be the double-voter, so it's a town loss. The only thing that could save us is a commuting townie meaning that the remaining scum can't kill N7, meaning there would be two townies standing at the start of D8, then it would be a standard 3-person lylo. So, that's a very slim chance of a win, and that's in the best-case scenario where we have a correct D7 lynch anyway!

[SpaceAnemone]

The more I think through this stuff, the more I think it's going to boil down to PRs saving us even with optimal play by town and errors by scum. If we go into D7 with 1 or 0 townies alive, I think there's no way for town to win, even if our 1-shot-deathproof person is town. These eight situations are everything I think could happen going into D7 with 2 or more townies and the various D5 lynch/N5 kill patterns:
(3T, 2M, 1SK)
(3T, 1M, 1SK)
(3T, 0M, 1SK)
(2T, 2M, 1SK)
(2T, 1M, 1SK)
(2T, 0M, 1SK)
(3T, 2M, 0SK)
(2T, 2M, 0SK)


Maybe it's useful to agree on which of the possible combinations leads to even a potential win from here.

(3T, 2M, 1SK) -> Status quo (Happens only after no-lynch, with scum failing to kill, so not likely, and almost certainly worse than now).
(3T, 1M, 1SK) -> Possible win if we lynch scum D7.
(3T, 0M, 1SK) -> Possible win.
(2T, 2M, 1SK) -> Probable loss, depends on PR distribution.
(2T, 1M, 1SK) -> Probable loss, depends on PR distribution.
(2T, 0M, 1SK) -> Standard 3-person lylo, possible win.
(3T, 2M, 0SK) -> Standard 5-person lylo, possible win.
(2T, 2M, 0SK) -> Probable loss.

Does anyone think these evaluations are incorrect?

[MiX]

I feel like raerae, more than anyone here, loves to be contrarian and go against the general consensus of town. You can see that D1 with questioning the townread on shraeye, and then it manifests itself in the scumread on me, which seems to be "MiX is so obviously scum how does no one see it??? ?? ??", among other things, I'm sure they exist. So it makes sense that raerae would completely disagree with everything we're saying today, especially things coming from me, which seems to be coherent with her overall stubborness on (not) claiming Garak and no lynch.

I'm seriously considering voting for Snow if he doesn't post after 48 hours since his last post, ash's maneuver is kinda stalling us and I'm somewhat scumreading him for it but at this point it's just tunnelling. To be honest I would be perfectly fine with a lynch right now, I already had to give countless information to scum regarding NKs and I think getting to L-1 ASAP is the best thing to do this day.

I don't think it's as clear as MiX's post suggests that killing the SK is worse than killing Maquis: he asserts that 2 town, 1 Maquis and 1 SK is "neutral", whereas I have trouble seeing that as a town win, and Ash has picked up on that too.

To illustrate why 2T, 1M, 1SK is a likely loss, consider what happens even if one of the scums is a correct D7 lynch: N7 starts with 2T and one scum: the expectation is to have 1T and 1 scum alive the next day barring having a still-active PR to save the day. Even if you (Didds) are town, all scums already know that you've announced you're not a good person to target, so in that set of circumstances, you're likely to be the last town standing, and you're also guaranteed not to be the double-voter, so it's a town loss. The only thing that could save us is a commuting townie meaning that the remaining scum can't kill N7, meaning there would be two townies standing at the start of D8, then it would be a standard 3-person lylo. So, that's a very slim chance of a win, and that's in the best-case scenario where we have a correct D7 lynch anyway!

Of course it's a likely loss: by every standard, we lost when Uncle flipped town, or more concretely when EFHW flipped, but we were doomed anyway. The probability of even having a chance after lynching SK are less than the one of doing the same after lynching MQ. This is about relative winrates: we're in a tough spot and nothing will save us from it. MQ lynch simply puts us in the best possible position: 2v1v1; while also allowing for scum to misplay, putting us in an even better position. 2v1v1's neutral because neither MQ nor SK nor Town want it, but they need to reach it: yes, it's not town favoured, otherwise I would've written "town favoured". I believe it will be incredibly easy to win LyLo, given that we'll have freaking 6 days worth of day chatter and NK analysis to look back to.

The more I think through this stuff, the more I think it's going to boil down to PRs saving us even with optimal play by town and errors by scum. If we go into D7 with 1 or 0 townies alive, I think there's no way for town to win, even if our 1-shot-deathproof person is town.

This is correct, town cannot win with 2 town flips. Next post's after I read the rest of your post.

[ashersky]

Rushing everyone at this juncture is scummy, but the “Incredibly easy to win lylo” statement seals it for me.  Cannot be town.

vote: mix

(Re: UoS, I’m willing to give him the IRL pass, given previous experiences. A prod and maybe replacement is worth considering?)

[MiX]

(3T, 2M, 1SK) -> Status quo (Happens only after no-lynch, with scum failing to kill, so not likely, and almost certainly worse than now).
(3T, 1M, 1SK) -> Possible win if we lynch scum D7.
(3T, 0M, 1SK) -> Possible win.
(2T, 2M, 1SK) -> Probable loss, depends on PR distribution.
(2T, 1M, 1SK) -> Probable loss, depends on PR distribution.
(2T, 0M, 1SK) -> Standard 3-person lylo, possible win.
(3T, 2M, 0SK) -> Standard 5-person lylo, possible win.
(2T, 2M, 0SK) -> Probable loss.

Does anyone think these evaluations are incorrect?

3v1v1 is 5-person LyLo;
3v0v1 is a win;
2v2v1 is a loss, because MQ can just shoot Didds, so SK's NK on MQ bring us to 2v1v1 without deathproof so we lose. This is, assuming Didds is town.
2v1v1 is LyLo iff commuter's town (assuming Didds is town)
2v0v1 is 3-person LyLo
3v2v0 is 5-person LyLo
2v2v0 is a loss, don't we get endgamed? Does double voter change it?

This is all operating on "1v1v1 is SK win", if MQ thinks they can win here then town already lost. This is the most important question ever.

In a Town/Maquis/SK situation (1v1v1), is anyone endgamed or is it played out? Reminder that town cannot win in this position, but they can act as a kingmaker depending on who they vote.

Rushing everyone at this juncture is scummy, but the “Incredibly easy to win lylo” statement seals it for me.  Cannot be town.

vote: mix

(Re: UoS, I’m willing to give him the IRL pass, given previous experiences. A prod and maybe replacement is worth considering?)

You know I'm onto Snow as your partner and you wanna lynch me? You also know that Space is SK? Thx for saying that, I wasn't so sure

[ashersky]

Man, you seem new here, so you’ve been getting pass after pass, but you need to tone it down. If you new the history of the forum going back to the lowest numbered games, you’d have an inkling of what I’m talking about regarding UoS and real life.

On f.ds, we believe real life trumps fake online games, every time. We respect each player’s needs outside of the forum, especially when it comes to personal issues that may or may not be shared.

You can continue to assume whatever you want regarding the players here, but as long as you continue to spout off as you seem won’t to do, I will not consider anything you say to be truthful or trustworthy. Your statement in response to SA that 3v0v1 is a win is simple proof of that. SA was correct in her post that it is possible; you are wrong that it is certain.

Yes, we are all fake online avatars on a blue-hued discussion board originally built to discuss Dominion. But we are also all human beings with human lives behind them, and the best thing about f.ds is that that sentiment is paramount. We’ve lost great players to situations where that was forgotten or ignored. I feel like it’s going to happen again.

[SpaceAnemone]

This is all operating on "1v1v1 is SK win", if MQ thinks they can win here then town already lost. This is the most important question ever.

On the contrary, I think it's an irrelevant question, because whoever wins in that scenario, it's not going to be town, and a town win is all I care about. Just to be clear, it is not helpful here for you to be posting anything about how Maquis or SK should play unless it's strictly better for town's wincon in all possible scenarios as well. I can understand that from a completionist point of view it's nice to lay everything out on the table, but I will scumread you hard for doing any more of that.

[raerae]

I think no one should claim from here on out, ever.

We are going to lynch someone, and trying NOT to lynch certain scum is just a weird concept that we can’t really follow. I mean, if someone claims SK at L-1, do we stop?  And then if someone counterclaims?

Space gave me an idea and I'm kind of counting on somebody fake claiming.

[MiX]

Man, you seem new here, so you’ve been getting pass after pass, but you need to tone it down. If you new the history of the forum going back to the lowest numbered games, you’d have an inkling of what I’m talking about regarding UoS and real life.

On f.ds, we believe real life trumps fake online games, every time. We respect each player’s needs outside of the forum, especially when it comes to personal issues that may or may not be shared.

You can continue to assume whatever you want regarding the players here, but as long as you continue to spout off as you seem won’t to do, I will not consider anything you say to be truthful or trustworthy. Your statement in response to SA that 3v0v1 is a win is simple proof of that. SA was correct in her post that it is possible; you are wrong that it is certain.

Yes, we are all fake online avatars on a blue-hued discussion board originally built to discuss Dominion. But we are also all human beings with human lives behind them, and the best thing about f.ds is that that sentiment is paramount. We’ve lost great players to situations where that was forgotten or ignored. I feel like it’s going to happen again.

I'm not assuming anything about Snow because I don't know anything about Snow's real life. I see no reason to assume it's neither intentional nor unintentional. My post replying to yours was about your vote on me, not about your knowledge of Snow's IRL situation, because I have no idea what that is. I also don't see how obvious hyperbole about probabilities is that bad, but if you want I can explain myself: it's not even MyLo, since commuter can save us, so it's essencially the best situation ever, which for me might as well be a win, because we cannot do better.

This is all operating on "1v1v1 is SK win", if MQ thinks they can win here then town already lost. This is the most important question ever.

On the contrary, I think it's an irrelevant question, because whoever wins in that scenario, it's not going to be town, and a town win is all I care about. Just to be clear, it is not helpful here for you to be posting anything about how Maquis or SK should play unless it's strictly better for town's wincon in all possible scenarios as well. I can understand that from a completionist point of view it's nice to lay everything out on the table, but I will scumread you hard for doing any more of that.

If I didn't explain myself raerae would ask, AGAIN, "why must SK kill MQ in a mislynch" or "why can't SK kill town in no lynch", the only way I can answer this is with detailing what scum are thinking about. Also, the 1v1v1 scenario plays a LOT into what MQ are attempting.


I also realized something bad for us...we're in a worse situation than I thought. I don't want to disclose anything, but...I'll need to think.

[raerae]

Also, you can call me scum all you want but I can't see all the #v#v# posts. They mean nothing to me, I can't read them. When I say I'm bad at math I mean numbers like that scare the everliving fuck out of me and turn off my brain. I try to read those posts, I split them into little chunks and try to make sense of them a bit at a time but ultimately very little comes through. So, if I keep asking for the moral of the story, I'm sorry but it's because I don't get it and you're taking to the dumb kid in the class.

As for why I keep directing questions at Ash, Space, it's interesting you're just now pointing out how that's scummy. I've had a town read on him since pretty early on, haven't been shy about sharing that, and now you're using that as a reason I'm scummy.

[MiX]

As for why I keep directing questions at Ash, Space, it's interesting you're just now pointing out how that's scummy. I've had a town read on him since pretty early on, haven't been shy about sharing that, and now you're using that as a reason I'm scummy.

Can you quote yourself saying you were townreading ash? I skimmed you and didn't find anything.

[raerae]

As for why I keep directing questions at Ash, Space, it's interesting you're just now pointing out how that's scummy. I've had a town read on him since pretty early on, haven't been shy about sharing that, and now you're using that as a reason I'm scummy.

Can you quote yourself saying you were townreading ash? I skimmed you and didn't find anything.

Then read harder, I've been saying it since D1 or D2.  I said it today at the beginning of the day if memory serves.  We aren't going to do this "It doesn't exist" nonsense again.

[MiX]

As for why I keep directing questions at Ash, Space, it's interesting you're just now pointing out how that's scummy. I've had a town read on him since pretty early on, haven't been shy about sharing that, and now you're using that as a reason I'm scummy.

Can you quote yourself saying you were townreading ash? I skimmed you and didn't find anything.

Then read harder, I've been saying it since D1 or D2.  I said it today at the beginning of the day if memory serves.  We aren't going to do this "It doesn't exist" nonsense again.

Sorry, I forgot your "Ash and I are town" comment at the start.

I also realized something bad for us...we're in a worse situation than I thought. I don't want to disclose anything, but...I'll need to think.

Ignore this, it's much less drastic than I thought.

[raerae]

Or, instead of playing games, I can just...

Vote: MiX.

My thought is that he's Garak which is why he's so comfortable throwing that around at everybody else.
 Shraeye's early death made it easy for them because he could just bus drive his partner all the way to the moon and back. I think it worked too because it took Space off the Maquis list. They've been low-key defending MiX, almost but not quite town reading him all game, and now deferring to the all powerful, may he rest in peace, King of the Thread Faust's town read on MiX as gospel.

As for who the SK is, Didds, maybe? Ash, maybe (because wouldn't that just serve me right)? I don't know but they get my vote for MVP.

[raerae]

And that's l-1? Or l-2? Does it take three or four to lunch today?

[MiX]

Or, instead of playing games, I can just...

Vote: MiX.

My thought is that he's Garak which is why he's so comfortable throwing that around at everybody else.
 Shraeye's early death made it easy for them because he could just bus drive his partner all the way to the moon and back. I think it worked too because it took Space off the Maquis list. They've been low-key defending MiX, almost but not quite town reading him all game, and now deferring to the all powerful, may he rest in peace, King of the Thread Faust's town read on MiX as gospel.

As for who the SK is, Didds, maybe? Ash, maybe (because wouldn't that just serve me right)? I don't know but they get my vote for MVP.

I have already claimed I'm not Garak yesterday I believe, maybe just today. Also what are you even talking about with "They've been low-key defending MiX, almost but not quote town reading him all game"? Ooooooooooh you think it's ash and me? Then vote for ash! I'm more than happy to bus.

[raerae]

Or, instead of playing games, I can just...

Vote: MiX.

My thought is that he's Garak which is why he's so comfortable throwing that around at everybody else.
 Shraeye's early death made it easy for them because he could just bus drive his partner all the way to the moon and back. I think it worked too because it took Space off the Maquis list. They've been low-key defending MiX, almost but not quite town reading him all game, and now deferring to the all powerful, may he rest in peace, King of the Thread Faust's town read on MiX as gospel.

As for who the SK is, Didds, maybe? Ash, maybe (because wouldn't that just serve me right)? I don't know but they get my vote for MVP.

I have already claimed I'm not Garak yesterday I believe, maybe just today. Also what are you even talking about with "They've been low-key defending MiX, almost but not quote town reading him all game"? Ooooooooooh you think it's ash and me? Then vote for ash! I'm more than happy to bus.

For once I was not being an ass and using Space's preferred pronouns, I think I've been using she/her all game.  So that might as well have read "Space has been...". 

[MiX]

Or, instead of playing games, I can just...

Vote: MiX.

My thought is that he's Garak which is why he's so comfortable throwing that around at everybody else.
 Shraeye's early death made it easy for them because he could just bus drive his partner all the way to the moon and back. I think it worked too because it took Space off the Maquis list. They've been low-key defending MiX, almost but not quite town reading him all game, and now deferring to the all powerful, may he rest in peace, King of the Thread Faust's town read on MiX as gospel.

As for who the SK is, Didds, maybe? Ash, maybe (because wouldn't that just serve me right)? I don't know but they get my vote for MVP.

I have already claimed I'm not Garak yesterday I believe, maybe just today. Also what are you even talking about with "They've been low-key defending MiX, almost but not quote town reading him all game"? Ooooooooooh you think it's ash and me? Then vote for ash! I'm more than happy to bus.

For once I was not being an ass and using Space's preferred pronouns, I think I've been using she/her all game.  So that might as well have read "Space has been...". 

...wait what? You think it's Space and me? That's so awkward. Who would assume Space was getting copped...what night was it that they were copped? no way I would ever waste a PR like that. That scumteam sounds convenient, but also paranoid, overall I think it's null...