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[WestCoastDidds]

You know, you're a sucker for long posts aren't you? I mean this in a cute way: last time I made a wall post (my D1 VCA) you townread me, now you're doing it again, I find it...charming, really. Everyone else: is this common? I don't remember this from briefly rereading Didds, but I was mostly focused around her voting pattern.

Are you definitely not voting for raerae, or just probably? I would love to refine my read on raerae with people I believe are town, which in this case is only you.

Good lord, no. You have all kinds of super long posts that I quit reading half-way through because I can't follow you and don't really see the point or where you are going.  Please, don't ever aim for length. That is, in no way, my preference. This one was helpful because (like raerae) I was having a hard time following all of the #v#v# notations and scenarios, but couldn't even figure out the question to ask.  So, saying we should lynch Maquis is obvious for those who were following already, but a new conclusion for me.

I don't see raerae happening today, or Space.  Snow, though.... What do you think about Snow?

[WestCoastDidds]

Also, I am not town reading you for it. I think you're the SK.

[ashersky]

Should we all put down prelim guesses? Can’t hurt.

SA for SK
MiX for Mafia
raerae for town

That leaves one out of WCD and UoS?  Before the claim, I was leaning WCD. Now?  Dunno.

[raerae]

Should we all put down prelim guesses? Can’t hurt.

SA for SK
MiX for Mafia
raerae for town

That leaves one out of WCD and UoS?  Before the claim, I was leaning WCD. Now?  Dunno.

Love it! MiX, you're up next, then Didds, UoS, and Space. I hardly think my reads are a secret but I'll round it out at the end.

[raerae]

Should we all put down prelim guesses? Can’t hurt.

SA for SK
MiX for Mafia
raerae for town

That leaves one out of WCD and UoS?  Before the claim, I was leaning WCD. Now?  Dunno.

Since the crickets are the only ones around right now...What about her claim leans town to you?

[WestCoastDidds]

It’s the middle of the night in Europe. We’ll be waiting for awhile on MiX.

[raerae]

It’s the middle of the night in Europe. We’ll be waiting for awhile on MiX.

If you want to jump the queue I'm cool with it.

[MiX]

Should we all put down prelim guesses? Can’t hurt.

SA for SK
MiX for Mafia
raerae for town

That leaves one out of WCD and UoS?  Before the claim, I was leaning WCD. Now?  Dunno.

Love it! MiX, you're up next, then Didds, UoS, and Space. I hardly think my reads are a secret but I'll round it out at the end.

SA is SK
Ash/Snow are Mafia
Didds is Town

We either do popcorn or at the very least you say your reads before Didds, I don't trust you enough. If popcorn then I nominate Snow.

[MiX]

Also, I am not town reading you for it. I think you're the SK.

Awwww. Also, to reply to your above post, I suppose you like effort, but then I realized the 2 posts are all peak helpfullness for me, so I guess my theory of "Didds likes long posts with effort" is wrong.

[ashersky]

Should we all put down prelim guesses? Can’t hurt.

SA for SK
MiX for Mafia
raerae for town

That leaves one out of WCD and UoS?  Before the claim, I was leaning WCD. Now?  Dunno.

Since the crickets are the only ones around right now...What about her claim leans town to you?

It’s not that it’s a particularly towny claim, more that I don’t see mafia!wcd making it. SK!wcd sure, so I guess that’s more feasible.

[WestCoastDidds]

So, Snow does his reads next?

[MiX]

So, Snow does his reads next?

I hope so. Just waiting for that now.

[WestCoastDidds]

Also, I am not town reading you for it. I think you're the SK.

Awwww. Also, to reply to your above post, I suppose you like effort, but then I realized the 2 posts are all peak helpfullness for me, so I guess my theory of "Didds likes long posts with effort" is wrong.

Yes...helpfulness is what I’m reacting to....not length!

[SpaceAnemone]

Sorry for the cricket noises coming from over here! I never wake up early enough to post thinky content before work, and work itself has been too busy today.

Anyway, early in D5 I recall thinking to myself that raerae and Ash felt like two people starting up on the same page as one another. Reading back, it's not that apparent, but certainly earlier in the day they'd have been my "gut" pick for Maquis. Though looking at the wagons, that pair is rather less likely-looking. That's why I need time to sit and collate my different thoughts!

I know lots of people are unwilling to look at raerae, but honestly her conviction to the no-lynch when her own argument for it is clearly totally missing the point of optimising the number of townies alive is a bit worrying. That sort of stubbornness is probably quite easy for scum to hide behind, though. Was she also the one making comments in D5 about MiX being hard to lynch, or was that someone else trying to stir things up hiding behind something else she'd said earlier on? There was something scummy going on there, anyway, because I'm still convinced that it was our dead IC (and also to a lesser extent e) who were arguing most loudly for his towniness, and I'm up for keeping their input in mind.

As for who the SK is, I don't have much of a picture. UoS is a bit too much under the radar so far today. If WCD is the SK, we're probably doomed, though it's worth checking out how the SK bulletproof stacks with the deathproof -- has anyone asked a mod about that yet? This is one of those cases where I think we might improve our odds of a town win overall if we commit to a strategy where we don't even try to protect ourselves from the possibility that we have a deathproof-bulletproof-SK, and just try to cover the rest of the possible scenarios a bit more thoroughly. I think Ash pointed out a "non-SK slip" from MiX, which maybe even gives a few townpoints to each of them, but probably not too many.

[MiX]

I like your scum!raerae points, and are some I've been trying to deal with myself, now knowing that every scum was on my wagon makes her continuous push on me less towny. I also didn't like how ash and raerae both said the same things regarding no lynch...this is also why I'm voting for ash and not snow right now, ash!raerae seems to make more sense than snow!raerae. Everything just makes ash scum to be honest.

If Didds is SK we need to lynch her right now or we lose, which essencially puts us in the No Lynch scenario, and if she's not SK then we basically lose.

If Dax is SK and is targetted with a NK, does he lose deathrproof, or does bulletproof protect it?

[SpaceAnemone]

If Didds is SK we need to lynch her right now or we lose, which essencially puts us in the No Lynch scenario, and if she's not SK then we basically lose.

Can we even win if she's SK?

D5: Dax lynch -> Dax doesn't die but Ezri replaces Jadzia. (3T,2Maq,1SK)
N5: Ezri takes out one town player, other Maquis shoots town. (2T,1Maq,1SK) OR (1T,2Maq,1SK)
D6: We re-lynch Dax, since it's the only way to kill her. (2T,1Maq) OR (1T,2Maq)
N6: In the 2T case, it's down to slim chances with PRs in N6&D7, in the 1T case, it's a pretty unavoidable Maquis win.

Okay, so it boils down to more or less the same reliance on town's PR spread as my "let's kill the SK". Given that I was initially pro-SK-kill and then became persuaded that perhaps a Maquis kill is okay, let's check what happens if Didds is Maquis and we lynch her:

D5: Dax lynch -> Dax doesn't die but Ezri replaces Jadzia. (3T,2Maq,1SK)
N5: Maquis probably kill town; SK may kill either. (2T,1Maq,1SK) OR (1T,2Maq,1SK) OR (2T,2Maq,1SK) -- if kills overlap or SK is targeted by Maq.
D6 in (2T,1Maq,1SK): if we can lynch the SK, then it just depends on the town PRs. If not, SK may win.
D6 in (1T,2Maq,1SK): I think there's no way for town to win this.
D6 in (2T,2Maq,1SK): This is the same as what happens in the mislynch case, and is not great for town.

The other possibility that nobody's mentioned is that if Dax is Maquis, she could have swapped claims with her remaining buddy, as a deterrent. I think it's highly unlikely, because if we lynch someone and they fail to die, we know immediately that they and Didds are the Maquis. But I'm not sure it's a gamble no scums would ever take, so it's worth mentioning, at least to be sure we've examined all the options.

Lastly, I haven't forgotten that the e wagon of D1 has WCD as the only unflipped person on it and I'd used that as factor in scumreading e at the time he was lynched, it's just everyone else has moderately-scummy-looking things too (like Ash's hammers or raerae being off-wagon on unpopular votes way more than average), so it could just be a once-in-a-game sort of coincidence.

[SpaceAnemone]

If Dax is SK and is targetted with a NK, does he lose deathrproof, or does bulletproof protect it?

I could have asked the mod myself, but what I was actually asking for was a feel for who'd been even considering the question, not the outright answer right away in-thread...

[WestCoastDidds]

I am 100% not the SK or Maquis, so all of this work is for naught...and the effort put into it makes both Space and MiX seem like they are engaging in smoke-and-mirrors work, but I will try to give them the benefit of the doubt. But, really folks, your time is better spent elsewhere.  Cross my heart and everything. I don't have any way to make myself more trustworthy except to say that I haven't lied at any point in this game. I am sometimes confused, sometimes chatty, and sometimes defensive, but I have never been untruthful or even truth skirting.

The whole reason I outed myself as Dax was so that we could properly account for it when we were playing through scenarios about how many town we have left. I figure the deathproof makes me sort of 1.5 of a person. Lynching me is the same as a no- lynch and at the time I thought a no-lynch sounded like a bad idea, and as a result lynching me sounded like a bad idea for town.  If someone were to convince me that me dying sooner rather than later was good for town, I'd happily offer myself up. I really want us to win (the Radch loss still stings) and I know that I am not the strongest we have as far as players, so I am a good sacrifice.

As far as the others....I am not sure that Raerae deserves all of the town passes she is getting. Other than being stubborn about voting MiX, I don't have her appearing much in my notes. Nothing scummy,though, so there is that. Snow is off the edge of my radar, which can't be good. MiX seems scummy, but not partnered, so I like him for the SK, although Space is in there, too. Ashersky is enigmatic to me.

So, my scum list is Snow; SK is MiX or Space.

[MiX]

If Dax is SK and is targetted with a NK, does he lose deathrproof, or does bulletproof protect it?

I could have asked the mod myself, but what I was actually asking for was a feel for who'd been even considering the question, not the outright answer right away in-thread...

The question somewhat answers your question: no one had thought about this IIRC. Also the answer is pretty important.

No MQ would fakeclaim Dax here, because the odds of lynching the other MQ is pretty high...well, it's not the worst play, actually. If this happened, well done Didds, this really reduces our chances to lynch MQ soon enough for it to matter.

To adress your NKs list, I was ready to poke holes in it, but they seem solid. Remember that if Didds is one of the scumteam, the other scum doesn't know it, which means they may shoot her again in case they townread her (despite whatever it is they say in the day). That changes things, but barely, and I'm not sure where exactly it changes, so you're good.

If you think Didds' MQ, who would be her partner? I think no one works...wait, maybe me? Would love to know your answer.

PPE 1: Understandable. Not happy you gave reads before Snow but...whatever, it shouldn't matter much. The tryhard player in me wants to say "why did you give reads before your scumread??" but I know you wouldn't think like that. Vobe: Didds.

[SpaceAnemone]

I like your scum!raerae points

Cool. I'm quoting this because "descriptor!name" is the typical way of using the "!" notation you see around here, at least going back as far as two or three years ago when I started reading.

ash!raerae seems to make more sense than snow!raerae.

And I'm quoting these because as far as I can remember, the only person who does "name!name" notation is Swan, and for some of the rest of us it grates exactly like a grammar mistake :-P

Just to keep my post from being uninformative in the game sense, I think I'm feeling like my preferred lynchpool for the day is raerae, Ash and UoS.

[SpaceAnemone]

I am 100% not the SK or Maquis, so all of this work is for naught...and the effort put into it makes both Space and MiX seem like they are engaging in smoke-and-mirrors work, but I will try to give them the benefit of the doubt.

I suspect you're witnessing people who are not very good at reads trying to logic their way out of a situation when it's looking bad for their team. At least, it's true for me!

As for other things you said, there is a disadvantage to outing any more PRs, and that is that there may be a particular one that's not currently in Maquis hands and that they'd very much like to ensure a win... the more info we give them to narrow it down, the better it is for them. So I think all unclaimed PRs shouldn't claim, and should be careful not to softclaim.

I've also just remembered that I was scumreading UoS a little for this:

MiX: let's assume Ash claims (WLOG) Yates. What is your read on Ash in that case?

While UoS isn't outright asking MiX whether he's Yates, it's clear that if MiX himself is Yates, then his response will be less considered than if it's a role he'd actually think that Ash might have. That seemed like subtle role-fishing on UoS's part, and more likely to come from Maquis, who have more chance of strategising for the endgame than the SK would.

[jotheonah]

I like your scum!raerae points, and are some I've been trying to deal with myself, now knowing that every scum was on my wagon makes her continuous push on me less towny. I also didn't like how ash and raerae both said the same things regarding no lynch...this is also why I'm voting for ash and not snow right now, ash!raerae seems to make more sense than snow!raerae. Everything just makes ash scum to be honest.

If Didds is SK we need to lynch her right now or we lose, which essencially puts us in the No Lynch scenario, and if she's not SK then we basically lose.

If Dax is SK and is targetted with a NK, does he lose deathrproof, or does bulletproof protect it?

Bulletproof would kick in first.

[raerae]

Remind me again, we're lynching the SK today?

[raerae]

Remind me again, we're lynching the SK today?

Better question, or at least phrased so I can understand it better than all the math that's getting tossed about, if we kill Maquis today the SK has no interest in killing the other Maquis tonight, correct?  This is why we're killing the SK today?

[raerae]

@Ash, what do you think about claiming?  With Didds out in the open we really don't have that much left to hide, right?