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Author Topic: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (GAME OVER, Maquis win!)  (Read 377371 times)

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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2400 on: March 27, 2019, 04:35:14 pm »

I am becoming increasingly aware of Ash/MiX by the way

Haven’t brought it up because I’ve mainly been talking to MiX, but it’s a thing happening in my head, so there ya go.

Mainly because MiX removes Ash from a wagon e was on just for hammering it.

And loads of pairings MiX has been throwing out during this whole process have included Ash but I don’t remember him voting Ash once.

Ash is the townier of all pairs with him. Also, I wouldn't be that obvious about the hammer thing if he was my scumbuddy. WIFOM!

You think Ash is townier than Didds/Me/Snow?

Why? For each of them, please.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2401 on: March 27, 2019, 04:41:50 pm »

Remembering another player eliminating scum teams is a whole lot easier when you know thy are wrong.

It stuck in my head for days that Faust eliminates our exact scum config in a post, and I also wanted to point at that regularly. Doesn’t make Snow right, though.

Speaking of last game of that wasn’t clear.

I just reread it when looking for snow's posts, so you're wrong! Zing! But I think this means you don't remember it, I'll quote it because it demolishes your only viable Maquis scumteam, thus outing you as Maquis:

While I'm at it...how come no-one mentioned ash!plans? Severely dissapointed.

I've been waiting for someone to jump on Ash for not having a plan, or Ash to roll out some half-baked plan to satisfy the masses.

The fact that he hasn't gives me a townread on Ash here, I think he caves to his own meta as scum. The fact that you bring it up... well it cancels out the townpoints I was giving you for actually seeming to look at Faust when I mentioned it.

...
Sigh. Then I read the next page and see Ash trying to find things to make up plans about right after you post this. I guess we can get out of this that Ash and MiX at least aren't on the same scumteam...

Minor but effective!

I am becoming increasingly aware of Ash/MiX by the way

Haven’t brought it up because I’ve mainly been talking to MiX, but it’s a thing happening in my head, so there ya go.

Mainly because MiX removes Ash from a wagon e was on just for hammering it.

And loads of pairings MiX has been throwing out during this whole process have included Ash but I don’t remember him voting Ash once.

Ash is the townier of all pairs with him. Also, I wouldn't be that obvious about the hammer thing if he was my scumbuddy. WIFOM!

You think Ash is townier than Didds/Me/Snow?

Why? For each of them, please.

Ash/Uncle is incredibly unlikely, Ash/Didds is impossible and Ash/Snow, being the only possible pair for ash, means I should instead vote for the other person. You're right, he's not townier...but it still means I shouldn't vote for him. And I'm definitely not following you.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2402 on: March 27, 2019, 04:46:42 pm »

I don’t really care what Sbow thought day one.

So it is minor and ineffective when it comes to me.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2403 on: March 27, 2019, 04:47:58 pm »

And not voting for the intersection of all team reads is super scummy.

Him being dead clears or confirms every other read you have.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2404 on: March 27, 2019, 04:49:42 pm »

I don’t really care what Sbow thought day one.

So it is minor and ineffective when it comes to me.

Meh, I doubt you would be persuaded. It is minor, but I doubt there's more. It's a pretty wacky team, though, and I'm sure others will see that.
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2405 on: March 27, 2019, 04:51:47 pm »

And not voting for the intersection of all team reads is super scummy.

Him being dead clears or confirms every other read you have.

Super scummy for who? I AM voting for the intersection of my possible scumteams, as are you. How does an ash flip confirm if it's Snow/You or Didds/You?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2406 on: March 27, 2019, 05:53:20 pm »

At the risk of reading too much into this, why are you asking the IC to do things? I think a simple reminder's all you needed to do, but maybe that's what a simple reminder is.

So I'm not allowed to ask the high and mighty IC questions? You're his keeper? I'm supposed to run everything through you first to make sure it's appropriate for his sensitive and precious ears? Please, keep me apprised of the status of my request, I'm assuming I'll receive a response in 7-10 business days?

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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2407 on: March 27, 2019, 06:02:36 pm »

At the risk of reading too much into this, why are you asking the IC to do things? I think a simple reminder's all you needed to do, but maybe that's what a simple reminder is.

So I'm not allowed to ask the high and mighty IC questions? You're his keeper? I'm supposed to run everything through you first to make sure it's appropriate for his sensitive and precious ears? Please, keep me apprised of the status of my request, I'm assuming I'll receive a response in 7-10 business days?

I should stop fooling around so much. I think faust's the type to be very mysterious when he's the IC, knowing all and saying nothing at the same time. Not sure how asking him things works out, but I wouldn't do it. We're obviously different, so this discrepency makes sense.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2408 on: March 27, 2019, 08:54:06 pm »

That's a lot of MiX-Eddie chatter to dig through.

At least MiX's wagon-gazing overlaps extensively with things I've pulled out for myself. Note of caution for MiX: it's well with thinking in terms of likelihoods and probabilities when you amalgamate evidence over multiple wagon events: even if a wagon configuration is like 95% likely to have scum, and even if you can treat all wagons as perfectly independent (in the statistical sense), you don't have to look across too many before your expectation of having one false conclusion gets quite high.

One method I've used to try to reconcile these kinds of observations is to compile a list of lists-of-players, where from a given wagon, I infer that a given set of players is likely to include at least one scum. Then I take that full list and call them "soft" constraints, and then evaluate every possible scum combination against the constraints, counting the number of constraint violations for each set. Then I assume that the true scumteam configuration should be amongst the sets that score the fewest constraint violations, but it's not necessary for any combinations to score zero, and nor will the scumteam always be the hypothesized team that violates the fewest constraints.

I recall doing that pretty extensively for some recent game, but I honestly can't recall how accurate my predictions were now.. I should go back and work out what game it was.

Anyway, other wagos that are missing from MiX's post but potentially interesting:

#1015-#1091:
MiX (4): raerae, Shraeye, Awaclus, Glooble
-- this one makes me think that raerae is probably not scum with Shraeye, though I think I've mentioned it before, and I think she's insisted that Shraeye's existence next to her on the wagon is entirely non-alignment-indicative for him.

At #1261 there's a six-vote Awaclus wagon.
Awaclus (6): faust, WestCoastDidds, Shraeye, Glooble, Uncleeurope, MiX
So WCD, Eddie and MiX are on-wagon with Shraeye, and all three of the others (raerae, Ash and UoS) are on the MiX wagon, which at this point is 5 votes.

There was net drift from both wagons onto faust, so that at #1282 there is
faust (5): 2.71828....., Awaclus, UmbrageOfSnow, MiX, Uncleeurope
though Eddie doesn't stay long before he drifts off onto me, then WCD, then Awaclus.

In D3, there's a really stable Chicken wagon from #1594 right through to day's end at #1820:
Chickenwarlord (3): DatSwan, 2.71828....., WestCoastDidds
I can see that scum might prefer to take out a vet like e than a newbie like Chicken, but e was only on two votes when WCD put Chicken up to three, so it really was a long-running thing, and WCD is the only possible Maquis on there.

In early D4, I had a three-person wagon for almost 100 votes from #2095:
SpaceAnemone (3): Uncleeurope, MiX,
and at the same time, MiX also went up to three votes at #2110
MiX (3): raerae, EFHW, WestCoastDidds
and has been there pretty much ever since. A three-vote wagon is relevant when there are two Maquis out there and five to lynch. Though we're not in a lylo situation where scum can quickhammer, so I guess making that sort of a move will look ridiculously scummy, and therefor there's less to infer than I'd like. Sorry.. I may be rambling because it's really late and I'm too tired. Just wanted to get the other interesting wagons down first.
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2409 on: March 28, 2019, 01:53:05 am »

faust, are you going to comment on the MiX thing since your insistence is the only reason I did that?
I will comment in due time.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2410 on: March 28, 2019, 02:51:03 am »

What do you think of Didds/Snow/Uncle?

I’d say 6, 6, 8.  (1-10 scale, higher numbers are scummier.)
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2411 on: March 28, 2019, 02:51:44 am »

Also UE scumslipped and appears to have severe “caught me for the wrong reasons” disease.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2412 on: March 28, 2019, 03:11:29 am »

Also UE scumslipped and appears to have severe “caught me for the wrong reasons” disease.

I musta missed the scum slip, but I am intrigued.
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2413 on: March 28, 2019, 03:12:17 am »

Also, what are the right reasons?
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Uncleeurope Eddie

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2414 on: March 28, 2019, 05:41:51 am »

I like Space's advice; yes, I did this, except I didn't assign a quantitive value to each conclusion, only a qualitive one: for example, Didds being on LL's wagon is valued really low and Uncle being on Awaclus' wagon is being underplayed. I like the wagon pulls but I'm not sure I can take any good conclusions out of them...

Also UE scumslipped and appears to have severe “caught me for the wrong reasons” disease.

If you want to bus, you can vote... Regardless, I remember a wise man saying

You can share the scumtell...it’s sort of fair play to only use it once against a player.

So, what was the scumslip?
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faust

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2415 on: March 28, 2019, 08:29:02 am »

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2416 on: March 28, 2019, 09:18:35 am »

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.

Who are we considering?!
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2417 on: March 28, 2019, 09:40:09 am »

In a response to MiX, UE made a statement regarding partners that read in a confusing way. I think it’s because of an attempt to obfuscate the irrepressible knowledge UE has regarding their own situation. To me, being unable to talk clearly about partners in the abstract is a sign of having partners in the concrete. Ergo, a scumslip. Like all scumslip arguments, it is not definitive and is definitely subjective.

As to the other question UE posed: a scumslip is a right reason. Seriously though, any reason is the right one. It just feels wrong when you are caught for something you legitimately may not have done.  And it is often hard to keep that feeling of being wronged out of your posts.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2418 on: March 28, 2019, 09:45:07 am »

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.

Who are we considering?!
Who is "we"? "We are not lynching someone" is different from "we are lynching someone".
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MiX

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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2419 on: March 28, 2019, 09:46:42 am »

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.

Who are we considering?!

Eddie, me and in some other universe Snow. The IC might have a different opinion, but he will make himself heard, faust is good like that.


Great answer: why aren't you voting for Eddie then? Let's see if I can see which post you're talking about...

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.

Who are we considering?!
Who is "we"? "We are not lynching someone" is different from "we are lynching someone".

Good point. "We" is probably faust, right?
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2420 on: March 28, 2019, 10:02:13 am »

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.

Who are we considering?!
Who is "we"? "We are not lynching someone" is different from "we are lynching someone".

You have articulated my question better than I did. I will blame this on the early hour.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2421 on: March 28, 2019, 10:34:13 am »

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.

Who are we considering?!

Eddie, me and in some other universe Snow. The IC might have a different opinion, but he will make himself heard, faust is good like that.


Great answer: why aren't you voting for Eddie then? Let's see if I can see which post you're talking about...

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.

Who are we considering?!
Who is "we"? "We are not lynching someone" is different from "we are lynching someone".

Good point. "We" is probably faust, right?
No. And sheeping the IC is pretty scummy. He's keeping quiet to avoid people hiding behind his opinions and not stating their own.
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2422 on: March 28, 2019, 10:35:38 am »

Also, the IC has a harder POE than the rest of us. We can eliminate him from our lynchpools but he can't eliminate anyone (except through deduction, etc.).
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2423 on: March 28, 2019, 10:40:35 am »

We are not lynching ash today. People voting there should reconsider.

Who are we considering?!
You tell me!
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Re: RMM52: Deep Space Nine Mafia Redux (Day 4)
« Reply #2424 on: March 28, 2019, 10:46:02 am »

I turned on signatures, and there's liopoil in faust's! Rereading Eddie now.
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