SA, did you post the percentages for how likely it is for scum to be in the neighborhood?

For the SK+Maq scenario, there was a 55% chance of at least one scum in the neighbourhood at the start of the game, and a 45% chance of exactly one.

For the MU+Maq scenario, there was a 73% chance of at least one scum in the neighbourhood at the start of the game, and a 49% chance of exactly one.

Note that these are

*prior* probabilities, meaning that we expect to have to update them as new information (e.g. flips) come into play. Also note that the chance of faust rolling scum is

*independent* of the fact that he's in the neighbourhood. So it would be totally incorrect to conclude that since there was a >55% chance of there being a scum in the neighbourhood to start with, and now faust is the only possible non-scum left, that he will automatically have a >55% chance of being scum. That would be bad logic.

Also, can you post the current likelihood percentage for faust being scum IF there is scum in the neighborhood this game?

As faust says, it's 100%, because he's the only neighbour not to have flipped town already, so if there was a scum in the neighbourhood, it must have been him.

It

*is* possible that some interaction with him being in the neighbourhood will have had an effect on game-play up to this point such that scum-neighbour!faust is more likely to have survived this long that town-neighbour!faust, thus breaking the independence, but that's all tied up in the part of gameplay that I can't model so well.

Also, faust had a point yesterday about the fact that we can be sure he's not the SK. That actually means that from the naive townie point of view, he's very slightly less likely to be scum on average than any of the rest of you. However, reads and gameplay ought to modulate that...