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[UmbrageOfSnow]

Didds count from right after she voted

More right than it was before...
Vote count 1.2 Didds

LaLight (5): MiX, UmbrageofSnow, Shraeye, Glooble, Robz888
Jimmmmm (3): faust, Uncleeurope, raerae
raerae (2): ashersky, mcmcsalot
2.71828..... (2): LaLight, , Awaclus
Robz888 (2): 2.71828....., WestCoastDidds,

shraeye (1): Jimmmmm
MiX (1): SpaceAnemone
chickenwarlord (1): DatSwan


No Lynch (1): chickenwarlord

[Swowl]

We can further seperate this if we look at the vote count when Robz was the only one getting lynched, that is, after Swan's vote:
LaLight (4): MiX, Shraeye, Glooble, Robz888
Robz888 (6): 2.71828....., WestCoastDidds, UmbrageofSnow, SpaceAnemone, chickenwarlord, DatSwan
Jimmmmm (1): raerae
raerae (2): ashersky, mcmcsalot
2.71828..... (2): LaLight, Awaclus
shraeye (1): Jimmmmm
SpaceAnemone (2): faust, Uncleeurope

Since the lynch was guaranteed here, we can ignore votes after this. The 2.71 vote's also irrelevent for the Robz wagon: it's better if we remove him from that group to make conclusions. We can also add Uncle to the Robz list because of his vote mobility around deadline (voted after UoS, moved to Jimmmm after chicken). Thus, our groups are:

- The bold points above really have me suspicious. Why would you think the Robz lynch was GTD at the point of my vote. It took 10 to lynch, the wagons were at 6-4, and the potential people to vote "not robz" before deadline were: Rae, Ashes, MCMC, LL, Awaclus, Jimmm, Faust, Eddie and any active players on the Robz Wagon.

Thats 8 players on top of any active players on the Robz wagon that would choose to switch. I guess also minus LL as they would not vote themselves. So, 7 players, plus potential Robz Wagon players.

At this point, if literally one person were to switch from Robz to LL it would negate every single thing you analyzed. Not to say it wasn't good work, it is just the assumption that the Robz wagon was inevitable at this point is odd.

MIX - Could you elaborate on where you are drawing these conclusions from?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Not to say it wasn't good work, it is just the assumption that the Robz wagon was inevitable at this point is odd.

MIX - Could you elaborate on where you are drawing these conclusions from?

I'm willing to say it wasn't good work.

MiX's post seems less like it's trying to sort people and more like it's trying to be a big wall of effort before throwing out the conclusions he wanted to reach.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Like I've been arguing with some of the premises, but even if we accept them, how does he get from this

Robz888 -- Actually, his inactivity here doesn't feel totally like it did in RMM51. Here he seems to be reading and sheeping, rather than too busy to be present. I certainly have sympathy for people who find interacting with a big group on D1 tough, but that's not really the vibe I get from him either. Of the major wagons that I haven't ruled out, he's looking the most votable.

Vote: Robz

Here I feel that the weird thing was throwing away so many people off their lynch pool then not getting better scumreads than Robz. The whole post's also a lot of words to essencially sheep 2.71 since that's, ultimately, what drove them to vote...yet they don't say it here. Yes, I've said this before, but it keeps being true. Also, if you read it all, it has exactly 1 scumread (Robz) and then whatever it is that Space thinks of me, I still don't know what "case" they were talking about, but I'm assuming it's a scumread too?

To this

Space null/towny

[EFHW]

Not to say it wasn't good work, it is just the assumption that the Robz wagon was inevitable at this point is odd.

MIX - Could you elaborate on where you are drawing these conclusions from?

I'm willing to say it wasn't good work.

MiX's post seems less like it's trying to sort people and more like it's trying to be a big wall of effort before throwing out the conclusions he wanted to reach.

I did like the attention to how each person justified their vote. We don't usually do that.

[EFHW]

I don't buy the case on Datswan, but chicken's strongest scumread being Robz does seem strange. The main problem with all this VCA is that the Robz lynch wasn't scummy. Really, I'd say he provoked it. The last time he did that, his getting lynched was actually helpful for town.

[2.71828.....]

So, haven't really read D2 much....at all...

But I am going to go back and look at a couple things that are interesting.  Such as, why on earth did scum NK Jimmmmm?

Jimmmmm was very much absent on D1, and there was like no reason to NK him.  These are my thoughts:
1) They thought that all the active people were playing scummy enough that they would get themselves lynched
2) They were just shooting in the dark at someone knowing this is RMM they are likely to hit a PR of some sort
  2a) Then why shoot at Jimmmmm?  Because they are afraid of Jimmmmm later on in the game?  Because....?  Speculation can run wild
  2b) Speaking of speculation running wild, I think that the team that had Jimmmmm shot was a team that has at least one player who has been around for a while, let me just throw out a pool of {ashersky, Awaclus, faust, LaLightEFHW, Space}.  Maybe throw Shraeye/raerae in that pool?  Maybe?

Then also, why did the other team kill mcmcsalot?
mcmcsalot had a more active D1 with some very good contributing posts, but I the kill again feels weird.
1) They were off-wagon, so that is cool.  Maybe the scum team assumed that we would be trying to lynch on-wagon (suggesting an off-wagon scum?  But at this point I am fairly certain there is scum anywhere, on/off/sideways of the wagon)
2) They were just shooting in the dark at someone knowing this is RMM they are likely to hit a PR of some sort.
  2a) Rereading mcmcsalot I didn't see anything that felt like it revealed "big awesome PR" so just a shot
  2b) back to my speculation running wild, I think we can throw out a pool of experience players again who are more careful around a long time player like mcmc than more of an unknown (looking at you, MiX.  or Eddie.)

Basically, in multi-ball a lynch is hard to pick a scum read off because it could very well be scum lynching the other team, and poof!  they are townie now.  NKs are another matter.  I think the two NKs show an intersectionality of veteran players that make me think they are scum (on one side or the other, just not town.)

Rising to the top of the list for me is ashersky or faust, but now I need to read D2

[faust]

Basically, in multi-ball a lynch is hard to pick a scum read off because it could very well be scum lynching the other team, and poof!  they are townie now.  NKs are another matter.  I think the two NKs show an intersectionality of veteran players that make me think they are scum (on one side or the other, just not town.)

Rising to the top of the list for me is ashersky or faust, but now I need to read D2

Which kills would have made you think that scum contains inexperienced players?

[2.71828.....]

I feel like NK analysis is more useful here than normally.

You want to actually do this instead of just dropping a post saying it's a good idea?

I did do this. I just don't want to share.

boooo.

As an aside, MiX is almost definitely town in my opinion

[2.71828.....]

Basically, in multi-ball a lynch is hard to pick a scum read off because it could very well be scum lynching the other team, and poof!  they are townie now.  NKs are another matter.  I think the two NKs show an intersectionality of veteran players that make me think they are scum (on one side or the other, just not town.)

Rising to the top of the list for me is ashersky or faust, but now I need to read D2

Which kills would have made you think that scum contains inexperienced players?

I think an inexperienced player would have killed someone more active than Jimmmm.  mcmcsalot anyone would have killed.  I think the combination of the two kills points more toward a veteran of the forum than a newer member of the forum. Again, not one kill or the other, but both kills together make me think that odds are there exists scum among veteran players.

And this could also just be one player teamed with a newer player.

[Swowl]

Not to say it wasn't good work, it is just the assumption that the Robz wagon was inevitable at this point is odd.

MIX - Could you elaborate on where you are drawing these conclusions from?

I'm willing to say it wasn't good work.

MiX's post seems less like it's trying to sort people and more like it's trying to be a big wall of effort before throwing out the conclusions he wanted to reach.

So obviously it will mean less coming from me.... but if they were skum adopting that tactic, I assume they would pick an easier target with a better case. For an example, they could of put in half the effort and targeted Awaclus and in the future just said, "it was defense" or something.

[2.71828.....]

I've done a first round of wagon-gazing. There aren't many occasions on D1 where more than two of the green names (including my own, from my PoV) are interacting with the same wagon, with the exception of a five-person wagon on e.

At its peak, the wagon is:
2.71828..... (5): mcmcsalot, LaLight, Robz888, Awaclus, WestCoastDidds

So given that it's stable for almost 80 posts, it seems pretty likely that at least one of e, LL, Awaclus or Didds is scum. In a "normal-sized" game, a fiver-person town-on-town wagon is significantly rare, but with so many players in here for D1, I would expect at least a slightly higher chance. There'd even be a case for there being one of each scumteam, if we have two multi-person teams. That seems kind of a stretch when we're only talking about six players in total, though, which probably means it would be smart to check the baseline assumptions about how likely it is for there to be a scum (or one of each scum) in a group of n players. I'll tabulate some numbers when I'm not so sleepy, but right now it's after midnight and I desperately need an early night.

Here's a description of how the e wagon came about, in case a summary is useful for anyone (and since I'd typed it all before realising that it might be more interesting for most people if I just to jump straight to the interesting part):
By around #200, e has had votes from faust and mcmc for a while.
Faust moves to Robz at #265.
Robz joins mcmc on e at #268.
Robz moves to Chicken at #361.
LL joins mcmc on e at #391.
Robz joins them at #402.
Awaclus joins at #473.
Didds joins at #482.
This wagon, the largest so far in the game at that point, stays stable till #561, when Didds moves off onto MiX.
mcm moves to raerae at #643, the the rest stay till Robz moves over to the growing LL wagon at #781.

Really like this wagon grab by Space, and especially since I know I am town it does add extra suspicion to WCD, Awaclus, and LaLightEFHW

[2.71828.....]

Reread everything, caught up.  I feel like MiX is 1) not afraid to voice opinions 2) likely to be caught up looking scummy in those opinions and large amounts of posts and 3) is townie for that.  What can I say, I am a sucker for activity, and if you are active and responding to posts I am more likely to read you as town.  Just my own bias, I acknowledge it, and I try to overcome it when necessary.

I feel like Awaclus is playing very similarly to RMM51 where he was scum, but it just feels so townie that I feel like I can't vote for him. 

I feel suspicious of WCD more especially after Space's wagon pull thing.  I think that pull is especially useful since we have 2 confirmed town on that wagon with Robz/mcmc.  Going to do a targeted reread of WCD now

[Swowl]

Basically, in multi-ball a lynch is hard to pick a scum read off because it could very well be scum lynching the other team, and poof!  they are townie now.  NKs are another matter.  I think the two NKs show an intersectionality of veteran players that make me think they are scum (on one side or the other, just not town.)

Rising to the top of the list for me is ashersky or faust, but now I need to read D2

Which kills would have made you think that scum contains inexperienced players?

I think an inexperienced player would have killed someone more active than Jimmmm.  mcmcsalot anyone would have killed.  I think the combination of the two kills points more toward a veteran of the forum than a newer member of the forum. Again, not one kill or the other, but both kills together make me think that odds are there exists scum among veteran players.

And this could also just be one player teamed with a newer player.

right. so it is multiball and anyone could of killed anyone for any reason pretty much?
Sorry that is sarcastic, but not to be rude, just to make a point... which is like... what is your point?

[2.71828.....]

By way of introduction. This is my 6th game...2 newbie games, two RMM, and one guillotine game, but before that I’d never even heard of mafia.. I’m a she or they, I’m an hour behind forum time, I get up early and go to bed early, I’m generally WCD or Didds, and I’m prone to fluffy chatting and newb mistakes...I’m working on correcting one of those.

I’ve never played with MiX, Raerae, shraeye, chicken, or Jimmm. Eddie’s first game was my first game so I was there with faust, UoS, and LL when he went from Uncle to Eddie.

(bold is mine)

See, this is what I am talking about when it comes to the NK.   I just don't feel like someone who has never played with another player just kills Jimmmmm N1 after the lackluster D1 play from Jimmmmm.   I just don't see WCD being on the team that killed Jimmmmm.  (doesn't mean they weren't on the team that killed mcmc)

[faust]

By way of introduction. This is my 6th game...2 newbie games, two RMM, and one guillotine game, but before that I’d never even heard of mafia.. I’m a she or they, I’m an hour behind forum time, I get up early and go to bed early, I’m generally WCD or Didds, and I’m prone to fluffy chatting and newb mistakes...I’m working on correcting one of those.

I’ve never played with MiX, Raerae, shraeye, chicken, or Jimmm. Eddie’s first game was my first game so I was there with faust, UoS, and LL when he went from Uncle to Eddie.

(bold is mine)

See, this is what I am talking about when it comes to the NK.   I just don't feel like someone who has never played with another player just kills Jimmmmm N1 after the lackluster D1 play from Jimmmmm.   I just don't see WCD being on the team that killed Jimmmmm.  (doesn't mean they weren't on the team that killed mcmc)

This reasoning is at odds with this:

And this could also just be one player teamed with a newer player.

Why couldn't WCD just be on the team that killed Jimmmmm where a vet suggested the Jimmmmm kill?

[2.71828.....]

After reading WCD I could totally vote there, don't have anything specific to pull out of the reread, just nothing extremely townie that I noticed.

[2.71828.....]

By way of introduction. This is my 6th game...2 newbie games, two RMM, and one guillotine game, but before that I’d never even heard of mafia.. I’m a she or they, I’m an hour behind forum time, I get up early and go to bed early, I’m generally WCD or Didds, and I’m prone to fluffy chatting and newb mistakes...I’m working on correcting one of those.

I’ve never played with MiX, Raerae, shraeye, chicken, or Jimmm. Eddie’s first game was my first game so I was there with faust, UoS, and LL when he went from Uncle to Eddie.

(bold is mine)

See, this is what I am talking about when it comes to the NK.   I just don't feel like someone who has never played with another player just kills Jimmmmm N1 after the lackluster D1 play from Jimmmmm.   I just don't see WCD being on the team that killed Jimmmmm.  (doesn't mean they weren't on the team that killed mcmc)

This reasoning is at odds with this:

And this could also just be one player teamed with a newer player.

Why couldn't WCD just be on the team that killed Jimmmmm where a vet suggested the Jimmmmm kill?

They could be, but I think it makes it less likely of a situation.

[Uncleeurope]

You are saying that out of Awaclus, WCD, and ESFW you would lynch WCD?

[MiX]

Yeah, I'm with Ash, let's make this inevitable now that faust clearly isn't happening.

Vote: MiX

The one that really gets me is somehow winding up null/town on Space after all that.

As much as Space's conditioned to scumread me based on our playstyles and personality, I'm also conditioned to scumread them. I wanted to throw away this bias. Besides, Space seems like someone that would be better later in the game so it makes more sense for them to sheep e than, say, you (I think). You're right that I could add them to the scummy list but I already had 3 there and I prefer to lynch those.

Why would you think the Robz lynch was GTD at the point of my vote. It took 10 to lynch, the wagons were at 6-4, and the potential people to vote "not robz" before deadline were: Rae, Ashes, MCMC, LL, Awaclus, Jimmm, Faust, Eddie and any active players on the Robz Wagon.

Just look at this post:

Datswan votes for Robz because he doesn't want his vote to go to waste and he doesn't want to lynch Space.

Awaclus jumps on.

I don't want to lynch Space either and it's looking unlikely anything else is going to pick up steam so I jump on too.

Yes, it's the same one faust quoted to justify his vote on Awaclus, but it's very simple to realize that your vote sealed the deal: you weren't moving after that. No matter what happened with everything else, that vote was stuck. It's easy to see why Awaclus and Glooble thought Robz was the only person getting lynched: pretty much everyone on that wagon was there because it was their best option (all sheeping e's case, including e himself) and it really didn't look like it was going to budge.

I don't buy the case on Datswan, but chicken's strongest scumread being Robz does seem strange. The main problem with all this VCA is that the Robz lynch wasn't scummy. Really, I'd say he provoked it. The last time he did that, his getting lynched was actually helpful for town.

The lynch wasn't scummy, everyone getting on board was. It was a lynch on null points and sheeping a bad case a towny person made. That's the easiest wagon for scum to jump, ever.


So...Swan's reason to not vote LL is...because scum!LL wouldn't lurk? That's just crazy, LL didn't WANT to lurk, he had to! The case on them was not because they were lurking, it was because they made a readlist with barely any concrete reads which is a really easy way to not say much and not get called out on lurking. Of course now we know that LL didn't have time for the game, which explains why the readlist was so weak (he didn't have time to reread and form reads) but that was unknown at the time. This coupled with not actually mentioning LL until I ask this seems scummy.

[2.71828.....]

You are saying that out of Awaclus, WCD, and ESFW you would lynch WCD?

I think EFHW is also a good target, need to look back at LaLight/EFHW

[Uncleeurope]

Vote: Awaclus

[WestCoastDidds]

After reading WCD I could totally vote there, don't have anything specific to pull out of the reread, just nothing extremely townie that I noticed.

I think this is a fair assessment. I am not being extremely townie, partly because I am having a really hard time processing this many players and the concept of two scum factions. I feel quite in over my head, and the game keeps stalling out and then becoming a conversation between MiX, Eddie, and Umbrage which does NOTHING to help clear anything up for me.  That is a super confusing trio, to me.  (MiX, I did think your big post was good work, and it was the most clear post you have written yet.)

I feel like I can make the most sense of things when Swowl, Space, faust, EFHW, and you are talking to each other, but that hasn't been happening a lot lately so I've just been keeping up, but no better. I like to be more active and more engaged, but I can't seem to come up with any ideas with any real traction.

(The fact that there are FIVE freaking players that didn't even make my lists speaks to how big, big, big this game is.)

[WestCoastDidds]

You are saying that out of Awaclus, WCD, and ESFW you would lynch WCD?

I think EFHW is also a good target, need to look back at LaLight/EFHW

I agree with this

[EFHW]

I reread e. Totally seems like e!e.  One clashy note was in 1207 he says "the other team," but we don't know there are two teams. So this puts him maybe on an SK suspect list. His analyzing the nk's assuming teams distracts town from considering there being an SK. His scumhunting seems legit. He's being pretty towny, which isn't the best strategy for SK, so meh.