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Author Topic: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Game Over, Perfect Mafia Victory!)  (Read 293134 times)

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MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #850 on: February 01, 2019, 04:26:07 pm »

Wow, mods have the power to edit posts...without there being something saying "this post has been edited". Magic.

MAGIC!
« Last Edit: February 01, 2019, 04:27:55 pm by UmbrageOfSnow »
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silverspawn

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #851 on: February 01, 2019, 04:26:42 pm »

Yeah, you can talk after all votes are in. Just make sure to check PPE, because if the mod locked the thread, you shouldn't post it.

silverspawn

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #852 on: February 01, 2019, 04:27:34 pm »

Wow, mods have the power to edit posts...without there being something saying "this post has been edited". Magic.

There's this awesome thing on f.ds where you have a small time window to edit posts without the editing message appearing. I think that's what you've just seen. I don't think it has anything to do with him being the mod.

Of course, the fact that he can edit posts at all in this board is because he's the mod.

MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #853 on: February 01, 2019, 04:28:25 pm »

Wow, mods have the power to edit posts...without there being something saying "this post has been edited". Magic.

There's this awesome thing on f.ds where you have a small time window to edit posts without the editing message appearing. I think that's what you've just seen. I don't think it has anything to do with him being the mod.

Of course, the fact that he can edit posts at all in this board is because he's the mod.

I did not know that! Even more magic then.
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EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #854 on: February 01, 2019, 04:32:25 pm »

There are 11 people watching this thread right now. Why are only we three posting?

No one has an interest in either hammering me or talking town out of the (mis)lynch. Town wants this to continue to get reactions and scum don't want to talk: all they have to do is stay quiet, after all.
I already stated awhile ago why I wasn't voting MiX. I think he was having fun being witty rather than being classically scummy.
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arishipshape

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #855 on: February 01, 2019, 04:32:37 pm »

... *slams head against table*.
I don't know what to do! My theory is crumbling under MiX's current behavior. I imagined MiX would turn on me when I turned on him to try to cast me in doubt, but he continues to call me town and faces inevitable lynches with the most pro town behavior possible. I still kinda sorta suspect him, but even if I 100% decided that he was innocent, I don't think I can stop the MiX lynch. I'm not seeing enough voters online to turn the lynch on anyone else, and I imagine MiX is gonna get hammered regardless of what I do. I guess all I can do is get and provide information.
Regarding the getting, MiX. Why do you suspect Faust wanted to withhold reasoning from the town? And do you think he was right about those hypotheticals, or I? Be honest, spare me no logic.
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EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #856 on: February 01, 2019, 04:33:45 pm »

I agree mail-mi isn't a great replacement. Opportunistic votes in the past were his calling card, town or scum.
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MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #857 on: February 01, 2019, 04:34:49 pm »

... *slams head against table*.
I don't know what to do! My theory is crumbling under MiX's current behavior. I imagined MiX would turn on me when I turned on him to try to cast me in doubt, but he continues to call me town and faces inevitable lynches with the most pro town behavior possible. I still kinda sorta suspect him, but even if I 100% decided that he was innocent, I don't think I can stop the MiX lynch. I'm not seeing enough voters online to turn the lynch on anyone else, and I imagine MiX is gonna get hammered regardless of what I do. I guess all I can do is get and provide information.
Regarding the getting, MiX. Why do you suspect Faust wanted to withhold reasoning from the town? And do you think he was right about those hypotheticals, or I? Be honest, spare me no logic.

This post right here SCREAMS town, why were you assuming I was going to flip my read? The very doubting of me is exactly what I expected from you as town...but this doesn't matter anymore.

I don't think you should push faust. After all, what do you gain? Nothing.
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MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #858 on: February 01, 2019, 04:35:54 pm »

I agree mail-mi isn't a great replacement. Opportunistic votes in the past were his calling card, town or scum.

If we band together, we can take down shraeye! Together! Cmon town, let's get a grand reaction of out this reactionary wagon! And maybe I'll live! There's hope, there's always hope...
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EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #859 on: February 01, 2019, 04:36:49 pm »

vote: Shraeye. Living dangerously.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #860 on: February 01, 2019, 04:37:42 pm »

I do t want to hammer this, i doubt we can sway to someone else but I would still like to.
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EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #861 on: February 01, 2019, 04:39:20 pm »

Was raerae planning to be on? I see Shraeye is.
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arishipshape

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #862 on: February 01, 2019, 04:39:27 pm »

... *slams head against table*.
I don't know what to do! My theory is crumbling under MiX's current behavior. I imagined MiX would turn on me when I turned on him to try to cast me in doubt, but he continues to call me town and faces inevitable lynches with the most pro town behavior possible. I still kinda sorta suspect him, but even if I 100% decided that he was innocent, I don't think I can stop the MiX lynch. I'm not seeing enough voters online to turn the lynch on anyone else, and I imagine MiX is gonna get hammered regardless of what I do. I guess all I can do is get and provide information.
Regarding the getting, MiX. Why do you suspect Faust wanted to withhold reasoning from the town? And do you think he was right about those hypotheticals, or I? Be honest, spare me no logic.

This post right here SCREAMS town, why were you assuming I was going to flip my read? The very doubting of me is exactly what I expected from you as town...but this doesn't matter anymore.

I don't think you should push faust. After all, what do you gain? Nothing.

I thought if you were trying to early buddy me that if I backed off and renounced you and accused you, you would do the same so that you could turn the town on me instead. You have been my primary advocate, and I imagine with some effort you could have made this a lynch of me rather than you.
I'm still thinking Faust is scum, for my past reasons. I know you think he's town, that's why i'm asking for info. Who was right regarding the not sharing information with the town? I gain a dead scum if Faust is scum, so that's something
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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #863 on: February 01, 2019, 04:40:10 pm »

Why do you suspect Faust wanted to withhold reasoning from the town? And do you think he was right about those hypotheticals, or I? Be honest, spare me no logic.
If Faust is a live after N1... suspect away.
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EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #864 on: February 01, 2019, 04:40:15 pm »

I do t want to hammer this, i doubt we can sway to someone else but I would still like to.
You do or you don't want to? Who would you sway to if there was infinite support?
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silverspawn

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #865 on: February 01, 2019, 04:40:33 pm »

Question: If I hypothetically hammered (which I am 90% sure is smart), would the day instantly end like on epicmafia? Or would we still be able to chat until 5, but without votes counting?

I think it should be completely uncontroversial to say that MiX is probably town. You should not believe that your strongest day 1 scum read has a > 50% chance of being scum. If you look at some setup math, you'll see that town tends to have around a 40% chance to win a game with random lynches. (I'm sort of making this number up because power roles make calculations hard; I'm just taking the number without PRs and making it a bit larger, so it's not exact, but it'll be in that ball park). Town only needs to make lynches that are a bit better than chance in order to have even odds at winning.

Right now we have 13 people alive. One's a mason. If you're town, you know that there are 11 people out there, 3 of which scum. That means the default chance is 3/11 ≈ 0.27 (if someone other than you is lynched). It is very unlikely that you're justified in raising this number to 0.5. The game is way too hard for that.

0.9 is totally nuts. No player on f.ds is that good. Not even close.

So... I think it helps to have an appropriate amount of humility in order for good reads. thinking you have found scum with a 0.9 probability isn't a good start.

EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #866 on: February 01, 2019, 04:40:40 pm »

Um, MiX?
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silverspawn

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #867 on: February 01, 2019, 04:41:40 pm »

Or I guess there could be 2 scum teams since UoS said multiball could be a thing. Then there's probably 4 scum. But the point stands.

MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #868 on: February 01, 2019, 04:42:05 pm »

I do t want to hammer this, i doubt we can sway to someone else but I would still like to.

What do you say brother? Will you join me on this fictional not-going-to-lead-anywhere scum-will-hammer-me-sooner maybe-on-town wagon against shraeye! Then I need your support! Together we can do anything!

@ari, you don't know faust's capabilities as town. But to be honest I'm not sure what faust caught to be sure of LaLight. I'm assuming it's either part of his role or it was a breadcrumb. I could tell you more but I wonder if scum missed this...
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arishipshape

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #869 on: February 01, 2019, 04:42:30 pm »

Question: If I hypothetically hammered (which I am 90% sure is smart), would the day instantly end like on epicmafia? Or would we still be able to chat until 5, but without votes counting?

I think it should be completely uncontroversial to say that MiX is probably town. You should not believe that your strongest day 1 scum read has a > 50% chance of being scum. If you look at some setup math, you'll see that town tends to have around a 40% chance to win a game with random lynches. (I'm sort of making this number up because power roles make calculations hard; I'm just taking the number without PRs and making it a bit larger, so it's not exact, but it'll be in that ball park). Town only needs to make lynches that are a bit better than chance in order to have even odds at winning.

Right now we have 13 people alive. One's a mason. If you're town, you know that there are 11 people out there, 3 of which scum. That means the default chance is 3/11 ≈ 0.27 (if someone other than you is lynched). It is very unlikely that you're justified in raising this number to 0.5. The game is way too hard for that.

0.9 is totally nuts. No player on f.ds is that good. Not even close.

So... I think it helps to have an appropriate amount of humility in order for good reads. thinking you have found scum with a 0.9 probability isn't a good start.
90% was an arbitrarily large percent, not literal. Regardless, touche.
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MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #870 on: February 01, 2019, 04:43:45 pm »

Um, MiX?

Yes, EFHW? What do you want? I know what I want...your support on the best wagon to this day! Come my brethren, rally with me, go at shraeye's wagon, chaaaaaaarge!
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EFHW

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #871 on: February 01, 2019, 04:44:22 pm »

@faust, that wagon is the only way I can live. Unless people realize shraeye's scum, which won't happen in an hour.
Well, unless you are moving somewhere else, intent to hammer I guess.

vote: shraeye, so the final vote count makes sense
Missed this
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arishipshape

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #872 on: February 01, 2019, 04:45:34 pm »

Request vote count
15 minutes...
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MiX

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #873 on: February 01, 2019, 04:45:52 pm »

@ss, hammering me is smart even if I'm town, because of all the interactions I've had with everyone. Which is why this wagon exists in the first place. Was I then not supposed to interact? Why does activity kill? So many questions, but I want no answer. The game will speak for itself.
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silverspawn

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Re: M121: Philosophers Mafia Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #874 on: February 01, 2019, 04:46:05 pm »

Totally null on Shraeye. But they were one of those people who used to play way back, right? Kind of don't want to lynch a super old vet after a long hiatus day 1.
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