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Author Topic: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Game over)  (Read 14652 times)

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1900 on: February 12, 2019, 01:45:20 am »

My thoughts about lynching Ash:

I prefer the 6v2 over the 4v2 lylo. Sure, there are more arguments, but there is more town.

We go to 6v2, then 4v2, then oh wait, no lynch 3v2. And then who knows what happened.

If anything, I think we do a no lynch rather than lynching ashersky.

Then UoS allegedly confirms themself as town
We get other results
Etc.

You people who want an ashersky lynch, what do you think of no lynch v ashersky lynch?
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1901 on: February 12, 2019, 01:49:17 am »

No lynch + successful NK means scum can still quicklynch ash D5.
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ashersky

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1902 on: February 12, 2019, 01:50:09 am »

The problem at 4v2 no lynch to go to 3v2 is if joth is alive, he only takes two to lynch on the final day. So 4v2 is lylo, not mylo.  So if we lynch me today, remember that no lynch is not a viable option.

If we no lynch today, its 5v2 tomorrow. You must lynch me, then its 3v2 with joth as the issue again, so not okay.

Its me or scum today, no other option.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1903 on: February 12, 2019, 01:53:06 am »

The discussion has to be now sure do you need to be to decide to make today lylo.

If night actions are actually useful, having less players + more info from flips is my preferred option were I to be one of you other townies.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1904 on: February 12, 2019, 01:53:48 am »

Id like to be my own hammer, if possible.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1905 on: February 12, 2019, 01:58:18 am »

The discussion has to be now sure do you need to be to decide to make today lylo.

If night actions are actually useful, having less players + more info from flips is my preferred option were I to be one of you other townies.

Based on the current claims list, we don't have a ton of useful night actions to be had (except if we actually have a doctor)

Which brings up potentially UoS blocking the kill leaving us still at 5v2 after a mislynch today.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1906 on: February 12, 2019, 02:00:28 am »

Vote Count 4.7

jotheonah (1): UmbrageOfSnow
SpaceAnemone (2): 2.71828....., jotheonah
jotheonah (1): SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (4): ashersky, Awaclus, Glooble, WestCoastDidds

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends on February 13, 2019, 12:00:00 pm.

UoS and Space are both voting for joth?
Sorry, that should only be one wagon.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1907 on: February 12, 2019, 05:43:07 am »

1. We don't know the nature of my hatedness. It could go away if the right person dies. And it's a little weird of ash to assume it will be around at LyLo.
2. Do we want to just go all the way and mass claim? By my reckoning the only people who haven't full claimed already are me, Space, and Awaclus.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1908 on: February 12, 2019, 05:43:29 am »

And I guess ashersky.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1909 on: February 12, 2019, 06:05:49 am »

Anyway, scum LaLight loves calling out exactly what her partners are doing as distancing.

Are you suggesting a likely scum-pair (or even scum-singleton) on this basis?

I'm still more comfortable with the idea of going on the offensive and lynching scum today instead of gambling on them not being able to screw us over if we let them live another day.

Vote: joth. UoS is the other most-likely-scum as far as I can see, and at least he's actively working along scumhunting lines right now.

I'd like to draw attention to just how scummy this vote is at this juncture. Everyone else is involved in a productive logistical conversation about how town maximizes its chances of winning, and that conversation has moved into the realm of policy lynching as the best policy for town, to the point where Space, who was nearly at L-1, had two votes removed from them by Awaclus and Glooble. In the middle of that, after offering the flimsiest of justifications, Space drops a vote on me, a player who (A) is the only player with a vote on me, although you might forget because it was placed so long ago, (B) takes one less vote to lynch, and (C) is on an announced V/LA until deadline (even if, admittedly, I have been pretty active in spite of it).

This wouldn't be scummy from just anyone, but it flies in the face of Space's methodical meta to just ignore the conversation around policy lynching ash and drop the vote that literally has the highest chance in resulting in a quick non-ash lynch, which we have recently determined to be essentially an easy scum path to victory. We're also two days out from deadline, so there's a chance that if town isn't able to make up its mind I end up plurality lynched as the biggest wagon.

It's just really really scummy and kind of cements my read on Space, which is why I think we should lynch them today and take our chances. But I would also support the ash lynch.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1910 on: February 12, 2019, 06:23:52 am »

I would definitely want to lynch ash over Space today.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1911 on: February 12, 2019, 07:17:22 am »

1. We don't know the nature of my hatedness. It could go away if the right person dies. And it's a little weird of ash to assume it will be around at LyLo.
2. Do we want to just go all the way and mass claim? By my reckoning the only people who haven't full claimed already are me, Space, and Awaclus.

I think we need to assume it isn't going away for safety's sake.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1912 on: February 12, 2019, 10:17:03 am »

Hey there-

Today is a busy work day, so Im not sure how much bandwidth Ill have until the evening. There is a mind-numbing faculty meeting during lunch, so maybe I can catch up then but maybe not.

I do not like the Space vote on Joth. If seems out of sync with her not voting for anyone all day, the unvotes for her that happened just prior to her posts, and then in the middle of the discussion about Ashs lynch or no, to drop a vote on someone we know to be hated. Im going to leave this here until we decide about Ash vote: Space

I dont see any downside to mass claiming at this point, but Ill let the more strategic thinkers take the lead there. Yall already know what I do.

Finally, I agree with the Town!Ash vibe, but I see that the double-hatedness can duck us over later. If thats the best call, Im down. My preference there is to defer to Ashs judgement but how certain he thinks he is that weve found scumveksewhere (Space?).
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1913 on: February 12, 2019, 11:14:47 am »

I see a downside to mass claiming, which is that we don't want scum to know what our roles are.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1914 on: February 12, 2019, 12:57:55 pm »

Mass claiming is terrible if we're going to lynch Ash (which we should do).

If we're going to roll the dice it makes sense, but otherwise, ehhhhhhhhhh, we're not going to buy LYLO cop result claims or whatever but plenty of roles would have more utility in getting another night and it's weird to suggest you know that unclaimed roles will be useless. The reason for mass claiming pre-LYLO is for things like scum not wanting to counterclaim town PRs because if one is mislynched you know it's the other, which isn't a factor here. We shouldn't just lol-yolo-claim, although at least it would be consistent with our overall play so far this game.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1915 on: February 12, 2019, 01:14:53 pm »

Good args. I see good reasons to wait in the claims if were lynching Ash.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1916 on: February 12, 2019, 02:54:01 pm »

Yeah, I guess if we're doing the ash thing we shouldn't. I sort of want to lynch Space though. I'm that confident.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1917 on: February 12, 2019, 02:56:07 pm »

I'd like to draw attention to just how scummy this vote is at this juncture. Everyone else is involved in a productive logistical conversation about how town maximizes its chances of winning, and that conversation has moved into the realm of policy lynching as the best policy for town, to the point where Space, who was nearly at L-1, had two votes removed from them by Awaclus and Glooble.
I think I've made it clear that I disagree that policy lynching is the best option when we should be lynching scum outright. If there's a second cult out there, or someone with a vigging power, it destroys the delicate balance we might be able to get form lynching Ash, whereas killing scum puts us into a safe place for another day, and is the only way I can see of doing that.

In the middle of that, after offering the flimsiest of justifications, Space drops a vote on me
It was 8.35pm forum time, which is a point where most of the US side of the pond are still awake and active on the forum, so hardly the middle of the night. It was very late for me personally, but I'm a night owl who's busy with work during the day.

a player who (A) is the only player with a vote on me, although you might forget because it was placed so long ago
At the point I placed my vote, e had a vote on me, so you're technically wrong. Also, I have an automatic vote counter, so I didn't forget anything.

(B) takes one less vote to lynch
I factored that in, too. As I've already posted my justification for in-thread, I think that one of you and UoS has to be scum. You were the one I could take to L-2, so I went with it.

drop the vote that literally has the highest chance in resulting in a quick non-ash lynch, which we have recently determined to be essentially an easy scum path to victory.
It's true I deliberately left you at L-2 overnight (UK time) all day, and have been too busy with work to log into the forum till now (which is almost 8pm for me). But that should have given plenty of time for any two-person scum-team not including you and UoS to coordinate. So now I'm even more confident that any scum-team has to include one or both of you. Anyone else can be confident of the same thing but with me in the mix.

We're also two days out from deadline, so there's a chance that if town isn't able to make up its mind I end up plurality lynched as the biggest wagon.
This is kind of backwards. Yes, we've got like a third of the day left to go, so obviously I'll move my vote before deadline if I think it's the best way to lynch scum.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1918 on: February 12, 2019, 02:57:52 pm »

Regarding Space's big logic-problem-solving post, it wasn't clear to me that Ash was still double-hated, I'd been thinking that was a Day 1 only thing, WCD also said it wasn't clear to her, and I think it's not a stretch to assume it wasn't clear to other people.

Awaclus acted as if she'd been assuming it was that way, as did Glooble? but I don't think we can treat it like scum knew they were in LYLO-if-not-Ash territory at that point, and that's a pretty huge issue with the logic there.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1919 on: February 12, 2019, 03:00:58 pm »

Can we stop calling it "policy lynching?"

We are not discussing lynching Ash for lurking or lying or being generally Ashy, we are discussing lynching a double-hated player for strategy reasons.

It's not a policy lynch when you lynch a claimed Survivor, it's not a policy lynch when you lynch a claimed vengeful townie in a situation where you know they have a very high chance of hitting scum if you're wrong.

And "policy lynch" has a very negative connotation (for good reason in terms of reads-accuracy, although I do think we should probably policy lynch more but that's besides the point.)
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1920 on: February 12, 2019, 03:03:45 pm »

By my reckoning the only people who haven't full claimed already are me, Space, and Awaclus.

All I've held back is the "x" on my x-shot -- everything else came out in D3, and you commented on it then, so I guess you just forgot.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1921 on: February 12, 2019, 03:04:51 pm »

Can we stop calling it "policy lynching?"

We are not discussing lynching Ash for lurking or lying or being generally Ashy, we are discussing lynching a double-hated player for strategy reasons.

Sure, calling it a "strategy lynch" is fine, and I agree it's a more correct term. I still like lynching scum better, because strategically that's what actually wins us the game.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1922 on: February 12, 2019, 03:06:13 pm »

It combines with the double-hated thing Ash seems to have/have had on D1. Another odd thing is that Ash's hated wasn't broadcast in-thread at all, whereas Joth's is there for us all to know about.

It doesn't seem like Space was clear on this either. Did I miss a point where it Ash explained it between this point and the more clear explanation recently?
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1923 on: February 12, 2019, 03:10:45 pm »

Regarding Space's big logic-problem-solving post, it wasn't clear to me that Ash was still double-hated, I'd been thinking that was a Day 1 only thing, WCD also said it wasn't clear to her, and I think it's not a stretch to assume it wasn't clear to other people.

Awaclus acted as if she'd been assuming it was that way, as did Glooble? but I don't think we can treat it like scum knew they were in LYLO-if-not-Ash territory at that point, and that's a pretty huge issue with the logic there.

Um.. I fail to see how any assumptions about Ash's hatedness have any bearing on my wagon constraints or the way I applied them. Could you point to specifics in terms of the post numbers I quoted, the wagons I named or the scum-pairings you think look any more or less likely as a result, compared to what I laid out there?
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1924 on: February 12, 2019, 03:19:28 pm »

Can we stop calling it "policy lynching?"

We are not discussing lynching Ash for lurking or lying or being generally Ashy, we are discussing lynching a double-hated player for strategy reasons.

It's not a policy lynch when you lynch a claimed Survivor, it's not a policy lynch when you lynch a claimed vengeful townie in a situation where you know they have a very high chance of hitting scum if you're wrong.

And "policy lynch" has a very negative connotation (for good reason in terms of reads-accuracy, although I do think we should probably policy lynch more but that's besides the point.)

TIL. I've always used "policy lynch" to mean any lynch made for a reason other than thinking the lynchee is scum. But sure, "strategy lynch".
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