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Author Topic: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Game over)  (Read 23953 times)

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1875 on: February 11, 2019, 06:19:02 pm »

e's treatment of my claim is really bugging me, the desire for me to claim, then the immediate firm disbelief of it while missing a few things I'd really really expect town!e to pick up.

And if using a governor shot to save town locktowns you for the entire game then it would obviously be worth using as scum.

But then I don't understand why scum!e wouldn't have just killed town!Ash at some point.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1876 on: February 11, 2019, 06:20:28 pm »

Ash, what do you think of my earlier point about Joth explicitly giving Robz a null-read for the replace out before pushing me for the activity reasons?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1877 on: February 11, 2019, 06:28:29 pm »

Couple flaws with the theory:

1) ashersky's double hated wasn't known D1
2) I had to select ashersky in my qt during the day to receive protection/investigation

Your theory assumes that I (as scum) had special knowledge of ashersky's role (as town). That I knew ashersky was double hated on D1 assumes that we are of the same scum faction. And then if that is the case it is most profitable for town to lynch ashersky (as ashersky himself addressed).

So either we are both scum together and you should be voting Ash, or we are both town. (According to your theory, we could obviously be different factions, but you are pushing the theory assuming I had non-public information about someone else's role)

Why does e need to know Ash is double-hated? It's a plurality lynch and Ash looked like the most likely lynch at the end of D1. Hated is irrelevant.

As is making a big post about how impossible it is to know Ash was hated.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1878 on: February 11, 2019, 06:29:58 pm »

So either we are both scum together and you should be voting Ash, or we are both town. (According to your theory, we could obviously be different factions, but you are pushing the theory assuming I had non-public information about someone else's role)

Also this like screams scum!e-town!Ash to me.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1879 on: February 11, 2019, 06:30:35 pm »

Here's the extended version of my wagon analysis thoughts. I'm aware that the more "gut" players are going to be disinterested, and that the logic side of things doesn't capture everything. However, it does capture people's voting actions independent of their rhetoric, which I like.

The hypercube wagon on D1 went to 5 people at #307 when mcmc joined. Hyper has flipped green, and Mail-mi has flipped orange, meaning that the red scums we need to kill off would almost certainly have been counting him as green at that point.
It was a four-person wagon from #256, and having been at 5 people from #307-#327, it dropped to 4 people when Glooble sheeped joth onto the mcmc wagon at #328, taking mcmc up to 5 instead.
The un-flipped names on that hypercube wagon are {e,Glooble,UoS} -- I'm not involved in this wagon at all, so even if you don't trust me, you should probably trust that at least one of those three is likely to be scum, though of course with this style of wagon-gazing, nothing is guaranteed.

The mcmc wagon being at 5 is also relevant, since, he and hyper have both flipped town. I still have WCD showing up green on my notes, so to me, the only two non-coloured-in people are joth and Glooble at the end. Just to be safe, let's say at least one scum in {WCD,Space,joth,Glooble}.

At #1095, my wagon was up to 4 votes in D2. For me, that means a likely scum in {e,Glooble,joth}, though others will want to add me to that list, so {Space,e,Glooble,joth}.

At #1505, e put UoS to 4 votes. It looks like everyone except Awaclus then posted between that point at joth unvoting at #1536. So either UoS is scum, or and both scum are probably on-wagon already. {joth,Awaclus,Ash,e}

The first 3-person UoS wagon of D4, from #1713-#1778, is another one I wasn't on. That gives us at least one scum in {UoS,e,Glooble,WCD}. Everyone posted in that time, and Ash even said he'd hammer if someone took it to L-1.

Finally, there's a second UoS three-person wagon from from #1792-#1822. That one gives us one scum in {UoS,e,WCD,Ash}. In that period of time, UoS himself is the only player who didn't post.

Constraints:
At least one scum in each of these five lists:
{e,Glooble,UoS}
{WCD,Space,joth,Glooble}
{Space,e,Glooble,joth}
{UoS,e,Glooble,WCD}
{UoS,e,WCD,Ash}
Then either scum!UoS or both scum in {joth,Awaclus,Ash,e}.

Every possible pairing, with the number of broken constraints:
Space-Ash   2
Space-Awaclus    3
Space-e   0
Space-Glooble   1
Space-joth   3
Space-UoS   0
Space-WCD   
Ash-Awaclus   5
Ash-e   1
Ash-Glooble   0
Ash-joth   2
Ash-UoS   2
Ash-WCD   2
Awaclus-e   1
Awaclus-Glooble   1
Awaclus-joth   3
Awaclus-UoS   2
Awaclus-WCD   2
e-Glooble   0
e-joth   0
e-UoS   1
e-WCD   0
Glooble-joth   1
Glooble-UoS   0
Glooble-WCD   0
joth-UoS   0
joth-WCD   1
UoS-WCD   1

Note that this isn't an independent count, because those constraints can't be said to be derived independently, nor should each constraint violation be equally weighted really, but it ought to be a reasonable first approximation.

Now sorting by number of violations, and filtering by the #1505 constraint:
Space-UoS   0
e-joth   0
Glooble-UoS   0
joth-UoS   0
Ash-e   1
Awaclus-e   1
e-UoS   1
UoS-WCD   1
Ash-joth   2
Ash-UoS   2
Awaclus-UoS   2
Awaclus-joth   3
Ash-Awaclus   5

Conclusions: joth and UoS should perhaps be my top picks, because of the three most plausible scumteams (the three zeros which don't include me), they're on two of the three possible teams each.

This does not address the various hatedness problems being talked about, but I'm offering it up as a framework for examining wagon interactions that might be pre-digested enough for use even after I've flipped.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1880 on: February 11, 2019, 06:33:29 pm »

Sorry to keep harping on this, but this sequence too, I just really don't like e's reaction to all of this.

Despite your scumminess here, I still think you are town.

Policy lynches are bad bad bad

We need to lynch scum. That is how town wins. Not by figuring out the least bad town lynch until we are at lylo
Please, stop voting for ashersky. It gets is nothing at all (except confirming that I am town)
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1881 on: February 11, 2019, 06:39:05 pm »

Lynching Ash is objectively the correct play here, it's the same thing as no-lynching in MYLO.

And I think it would be really tempting for scum to want to push for the win and get a mislynch in today and not have to fight through a long LYLO battle tomorrow.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1882 on: February 11, 2019, 06:39:44 pm »

Funny. That same quote is a town tell for me. I don’t think scum!e is that brash, but it fits perfectly with town cop e who is trying to talk us out of lynching someone he KNOWS is town.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1883 on: February 11, 2019, 06:45:48 pm »

Funny. That same quote is a town tell for me. I don’t think scum!e is that brash, but it fits perfectly with town cop e who is trying to talk us out of lynching someone he KNOWS is town.

It has nothing to do with Ash being town and everything to do with Ash being double hated. And he's treating it as if it were the same thing as lynching a lurker. (Which I kept getting called, by the way.)

(And no, I don't think this is a strong attempt to talk people out of the Ash lynch, it's a protest against it without acknowledging the reasons and re-emphasizing e's towniness in people's minds when Ash flips.

cop-result!e already outed that result forever ago, Ash would certainly be locked-in as town, but there wouldn't be that need to jump in and protest a lynch that has nothing to do with scumreading Ash so hard I think.
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jotheonah

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1884 on: February 11, 2019, 06:51:51 pm »

Man, e IS playing scummy here.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1885 on: February 11, 2019, 06:56:02 pm »

So either we are both scum together and you should be voting Ash, or we are both town. (According to your theory, we could obviously be different factions, but you are pushing the theory assuming I had non-public information about someone else's role)

Also this like screams scum!e-town!Ash to me.

That's what I was saying.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1886 on: February 11, 2019, 06:59:34 pm »

Even still, I do think that we should be lynching ash today, after all. I'd rather have a 4 vs 2 LyLo than a 6 vs 2, and we get one more night to use PRs before we have to find scum.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1887 on: February 11, 2019, 07:17:24 pm »

How certain would you have to feel that someone was scum for them to be a better lynch than Ash? I'm just trying to work out how to interpret this sudden vibe of "let's lynch a person we don't think is scum".
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1888 on: February 11, 2019, 07:27:54 pm »

Space: I would lynch 90% conftown Ash 9 times out of 10 here, because I think it's the right play, but I think I've gotten impatient before and lynched people in MYLO when objectively I should have voted no lynch because I was impatient.

I'm not feeling impatient this game because I feel like I'm just getting into it though.

I would lynch my own cop guilty over Ash, or anyone over Ash if Faust announced he was an IC, but within the normal bounds of reads, I think we should always be lynching Ash.

And yeah, I'm townreading Ash pretty strongly.
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Awaclus

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1889 on: February 11, 2019, 07:55:15 pm »

How certain would you have to feel that someone was scum for them to be a better lynch than Ash? I'm just trying to work out how to interpret this sudden vibe of "let's lynch a person we don't think is scum".

90-93%.

In all seriousness, I don't really see the downside of lynching ash. I hesitated IRL-yesterday because of how weird it feels, but it's got to be correct.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1890 on: February 11, 2019, 07:58:27 pm »

Are you guys factoring in that we might have a cult that increases the number of town deaths from a NK?

I feel like taking out scum ought to be our top priority, because everything else is not necessarily surviviable.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1891 on: February 11, 2019, 08:00:21 pm »

Yeah, I'm pretty much over worrying about e not being willing to gambit at this point:
yeah well, e could theoretically claim that if he really had the cop shot and copped ash, because if/when ash flips town, we will believe e, not so much if e will say "i copped him N1' afterwards. That is basically why I vote for e and not ash.
LaLight has this bad habit:


I would never ever in any state leave claimed masons alive if they are masons and I would persuade my team to kill them because "try to make everyone think masons are a scumteam" literally NEVER works. I am sure this is not making me more town in your eyes, just sayin'
(LaLight was scum who had left claimed masons alive all game.)

I didn't play with scum!Hydrad yet, but as town he lives till the end, so this might be true about being average
one more thing in favor of Hydrad being scum is that Newbies were both lynched and killed. I think at least one vet is a scum. I'd say it's chairs but
(LaLight is scum with Hydrad)

This is all confusing. My gut also tells me that here's exactly one person lying about PR. And if this is true, then scum team is {JReggie, Iguana, [lying PR]}.
I'd just propose lynching those two first. And in the process we can actually look at the PRs and their behavior.

vote: JReggie
(LaLight is scum with JReggie and gkrieg, who has just fakeclaimed Doctor, counterclaiming a real town doctor
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1892 on: February 11, 2019, 08:00:48 pm »

The horizontal rules separate things from different old games.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1893 on: February 11, 2019, 08:05:49 pm »

Are you guys factoring in that we might have a cult that increases the number of town deaths from a NK?

I wasn't, but I don't think that's particularly likely.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1894 on: February 11, 2019, 08:12:38 pm »

Are you guys factoring in that we might have a cult that increases the number of town deaths from a NK?

I feel like taking out scum ought to be our top priority, because everything else is not necessarily surviviable.

Having 2 cults that work that way seems pretty bastard to me. One was kind of rough, it ended up not hurting us but a uncertain recruitment that only hits every other night is most likely to give scum one extra NK or nothing, which is the same as what town gains from a doctored or blocked kill. You really need 2 to make a big difference.

But 2 recruiting cults basically guarantees that one of them recruits, and in the worst non-absurd case scum gets 2-3 extra NKs, along with there being a (1-shot?) vig in the game, which is hugely unfair. I don't think faust does that to us while 4 multi-player factions in a 14 player game.

I'd been just dismissing that possibility out of hand, and thinking about it, I stand by that.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1895 on: February 11, 2019, 08:13:49 pm »

Anyway, scum LaLight loves calling out exactly what her partners are doing as distancing.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1896 on: February 11, 2019, 08:35:00 pm »

Anyway, scum LaLight loves calling out exactly what her partners are doing as distancing.

Are you suggesting a likely scum-pair (or even scum-singleton) on this basis?

I'm still more comfortable with the idea of going on the offensive and lynching scum today instead of gambling on them not being able to screw us over if we let them live another day.

Vote: joth. UoS is the other most-likely-scum as far as I can see, and at least he's actively working along scumhunting lines right now.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1897 on: February 11, 2019, 09:20:21 pm »

Ouch. I’m V/LA. vote: space
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1898 on: February 12, 2019, 12:46:09 am »

Vote Count 4.7

jotheonah (2): UmbrageOfSnow, SpaceAnemone
SpaceAnemone (2): 2.71828....., jotheonah

Not Voting (4): ashersky, Awaclus, Glooble, WestCoastDidds

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends on February 13, 2019, 12:00:00 pm.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2019, 01:59:56 am by faust »
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1899 on: February 12, 2019, 01:44:41 am »

Vote Count 4.7

jotheonah (1): UmbrageOfSnow
SpaceAnemone (2): 2.71828....., jotheonah
jotheonah (1): SpaceAnemone

Not Voting (4): ashersky, Awaclus, Glooble, WestCoastDidds

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends on February 13, 2019, 12:00:00 pm.

UoS and Space are both voting for joth?
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