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Author Topic: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Game over)  (Read 14943 times)

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1775 on: February 11, 2019, 06:48:07 am »

Couple flaws with the theory:

1) ashersky's double hated wasn't known D1
2) I had to select ashersky in my qt during the day to receive protection/investigation

Your theory assumes that I (as scum) had special knowledge of ashersky's role (as town). That I knew ashersky was double hated on D1 assumes that we are of the same scum faction. And then if that is the case it is most profitable for town to lynch ashersky (as ashersky himself addressed).

So either we are both scum together and you should be voting Ash, or we are both town. (According to your theory, we could obviously be different factions, but you are pushing the theory assuming I had non-public information about someone else's role)
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1776 on: February 11, 2019, 06:52:04 am »

Also, if I am scum it makes absolutely no sense to save town with a governor power, so when Ash flips town (if you all are silly enough to lynch him) then I am basically confirmed town.

Forget the copping power, just consider the governor. Scum does not use governor on D1 on town
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1777 on: February 11, 2019, 06:54:01 am »

Theory break.

Plurality lynch means we cant NL with 4 people left like we normally would.

Ash, if you have a shot I think you really need to take it to maximize our chances. I also think we should be seriously considering the ash policy lynch to avoid the lylo quickhammwr which seems like a super possible outcome no matter who the scum is.

Im back to vote: ash
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1778 on: February 11, 2019, 06:56:15 am »

I have a plan that could potentially forestall that scenario, but it involves todays lynch being me, so Im not sure it actually helps.

vote: ashersky for now though.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1779 on: February 11, 2019, 06:56:18 am »

Theory break.

Plurality lynch means we cant NL with 4 people left like we normally would.

Ash, if you have a shot I think you really need to take it to maximize our chances. I also think we should be seriously considering the ash policy lynch to avoid the lylo quickhammwr which seems like a super possible outcome no matter who the scum is.

Im back to vote: ash

Despite your scumminess here, I still think you are town.

Policy lynches are bad bad bad

We need to lynch scum. That is how town wins. Not by figuring out the least bad town lynch until we are at lylo
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1780 on: February 11, 2019, 06:56:54 am »

I have a plan that could potentially forestall that scenario, but it involves todays lynch being me, so Im not sure it actually helps.

vote: ashersky for now though.

I really wasn't trying to get ashersky lynched.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1781 on: February 11, 2019, 06:58:45 am »

Please, stop voting for ashersky. It gets is nothing at all (except confirming that I am town)
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1782 on: February 11, 2019, 07:00:07 am »

Like, seriously guys. Lynching ashersky is a losing plan
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1783 on: February 11, 2019, 07:01:03 am »

It seems like not lynching ashersky is the losing plan.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1784 on: February 11, 2019, 07:02:02 am »

unvote
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1785 on: February 11, 2019, 07:03:29 am »

It seems like not lynching ashersky is the losing plan.

False. Lynching town is a losing plan. I know you think WCD is one. Who is the other?

Godfather Ashersky?
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1786 on: February 11, 2019, 07:04:57 am »

Right now I think the remaining scum are SA and UoS
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1787 on: February 11, 2019, 07:06:05 am »

Couple flaws with the theory:

1) ashersky's double hated wasn't known D1
2) I had to select ashersky in my qt during the day to receive protection/investigation

Your theory assumes that I (as scum) had special knowledge of ashersky's role (as town). That I knew ashersky was double hated on D1 assumes that we are of the same scum faction. And then if that is the case it is most profitable for town to lynch ashersky (as ashersky himself addressed).

So either we are both scum together and you should be voting Ash, or we are both town. (According to your theory, we could obviously be different factions, but you are pushing the theory assuming I had non-public information about someone else's role)

My theory doesn't assume that you knew ash was double hated. It's just convenient for you that he turned out to be.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1788 on: February 11, 2019, 07:06:28 am »

Lynching ashersky prevents early LyLo and tells us a lot. As Awaclus pointed out, if ashersky flips town, one of me, e, UoS or WCD is definitely scum. Plus what we said before.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1789 on: February 11, 2019, 07:07:03 am »

One of four isnt that useful.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1790 on: February 11, 2019, 07:07:19 am »

Deadline is coming.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1791 on: February 11, 2019, 07:07:55 am »

Also, if I am scum it makes absolutely no sense to save town with a governor power, so when Ash flips town (if you all are silly enough to lynch him) then I am basically confirmed town.

Forget the copping power, just consider the governor. Scum does not use governor on D1 on town

I think it makes absolutely a ton of sense to do something that will make people think you're confirmed town.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1792 on: February 11, 2019, 07:08:04 am »

vote: UoS

Seems more likely than WCd.
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Games (30): Mafia: 17, 21, 24, 31, 39, 43, 67, 72, 86 || Newbie: 7 || RMM: 6, 7, 10, 20, 22, 26, 32, 45 || Blitz: 4-7, X, 17-19, 22, 24 || BM: 14, 19

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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1793 on: February 11, 2019, 07:08:43 am »

Right now I think the remaining scum are SA and UoS

Convince me.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1794 on: February 11, 2019, 07:10:30 am »

Please, stop voting for ashersky. It gets is nothing at all (except confirming that I am town)

Vote: ashersky
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1795 on: February 11, 2019, 07:12:55 am »

I think if the e/ash scum team is a thing, they are trying to get WCD lynched today and UoS tomorrow, or the other way around. They'll probably NK me or Awaclus or something.

To me, looking at how the day has been playing out, that scenario seems a bit more likely then a Space/UoS/WCD team.

Despite the pains that e and ash themselves have been taking to convince me that neither of their flips confirm the other one, the e/ash team is the scum narrative that makes the most sense to me. If I can disprove that, then I'll be happy to take the remaining one on faith as town. And then we can look at Space/UoS/WCD.

I really think this is how we win, and it doesn't help that so far the only voices coming out against it are e and ash themselves. I'd really like to hear from Space and Snow on this.

I unvoted for now because ashersky is so quickhammerable.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1796 on: February 11, 2019, 07:25:27 am »

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends on February 13, 2019, 12:00:00 pm. This is in just under 11 hours.

February 13, 2019, 12:00:00 pm is on Wednesday, not in under 5 hours? Also I think it should be Day 4, not Day 3.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1797 on: February 11, 2019, 07:26:55 am »

If the deadline is today, I'm not sure if I can make it. I woke up around 14 hours ago, I might not be able to stay up that long.
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1798 on: February 11, 2019, 07:29:15 am »

If the deadline is today, I'm not sure if I can make it. I woke up around 14 hours ago, I might not be able to stay up that long.

I think the Feb 13 is correct, not the 5 hours
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Re: RMM51: Imperial Radch Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1799 on: February 11, 2019, 07:38:59 am »

I really think if theres any possibility in your mind that ash and e are the scum team ash is the right lynch today. Awaclus is right- we need to lynch either ash or scum or we just lose. So if youd rather try and hit scum, that means youre 100% confident that person is scum. Because otherwise your trading potential future advantage for the possibility of losing immediately.

Put another way- lets say we were certain either UoS or WCD was scum. Lynching either of them would be 50% chance of hitting scum. Lynching ashersky would still be a 100% chance of lynching ashersky.

Sorry but Im going with the option that definitely lets us live another day. The fact that I think ash might be scum is just a bonus.
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