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[jotheonah]

By my reckoning the only people who haven't full claimed already are me, Space, and Awaclus.

All I've held back is the "x" on my x-shot -- everything else came out in D3, and you commented on it then, so I guess you just forgot.

I have zero memory of this. Rereading.

[jotheonah]

Okay, full claim from me first, then the actual interesting stuff in a following post.

I'm Fosyf Denche, the wealthy land-owner. I'm Radch-aligned, and I have an x-shot power called Political Understanding, which is a modified voyeur. I get the names of any actions that target my target player that night, but in return that player is rendered invisible to certain other investigative actions that I still don't have a categorical understanding of. I've checked that I can't self-target, which is important for later.

N1 I targeted e, and got no result. This is consistent with WCD's original assertion.

N2 I targeted Glooble, and the result was that there were no Glooble-targeting actions to report. (Paraphrasing this quite a bit, but I know it was distinct to the response I got on e).

I've tried to pick townie-to-null targets so as not to interfere with other townie investigations, but not the most super-towny, because observing the NK is of limited utility.

That was a super not-memorable claim. But thank you for reminding me about it. Did you use your power last night?

[SpaceAnemone]

It combines with the double-hated thing Ash seems to have/have had on D1. Another odd thing is that Ash's hated wasn't broadcast in-thread at all, whereas Joth's is there for us all to know about.

It doesn't seem like Space was clear on this either. Did I miss a point where it Ash explained it between this point and the more clear explanation recently?

I mentioned hatedness at the end of my long "logic problem" post simply because I hadn't been engaging in the hatedness discussion that was also happening in-thread, as I'd gotten absorbed in my wagon analysis. I wanted to make it clear I was offering solutions to the problem of catching scum, not to the problem of what we should do about Ash being hated. But now you appear to be questioning my conclusions based on a lack of understanding of a fact that doesn't actually interact with my inferences at all.

For example, if I assert that at least one of you, me and joth must be scum because otherwise two scum could have come along and quick-hammered joth by now, I think you should agree that's valid. Either the wagon is on scum, in which case scum aren't going to quick-hammer, or one of the people already voting is scum (that would be you and me), in which case there aren't two to quick-hammer. If the scum-team were e and Glooble, they could have taken joth out by now. So from my point if view, I'm really confident that one of you and joth is part of the scum-team.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Space: Sorry, I definitely don't have time/energy to go through your post and pick out each individual thing that's impacted or not, especially as it's hard to keep straight in my head while not staring at it (because I'm not you, I don't think this is some fundamental issue with your formatting inherently, just a constraint of that sort of post in general.) But I think you're working from a false premise and that needs to be called out.

Scum would not have wanted to just scummily pile on a wagon to push a lynch through if it wasn't LYLO, and if they didn't know Ash was still double hated, as they may not have at the times of some of those, the fact that someone wasn't hammered after doesn't mean anything.

Of course they still could have if they had good reason to, I think some of those are probably still true anyway, particularly with regard to my own wagon since everyone was okay with lynching me at that point of the day. But I won't pick through your list for you, sorry.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

It combines with the double-hated thing Ash seems to have/have had on D1. Another odd thing is that Ash's hated wasn't broadcast in-thread at all, whereas Joth's is there for us all to know about.

It doesn't seem like Space was clear on this either. Did I miss a point where it Ash explained it between this point and the more clear explanation recently?

I mentioned hatedness at the end of my long "logic problem" post simply because I hadn't been engaging in the hatedness discussion that was also happening in-thread, as I'd gotten absorbed in my wagon analysis. I wanted to make it clear I was offering solutions to the problem of catching scum, not to the problem of what we should do about Ash being hated. But now you appear to be questioning my conclusions based on a lack of understanding of a fact that doesn't actually interact with my inferences at all.

For example, if I assert that at least one of you, me and joth must be scum because otherwise two scum could have come along and quick-hammered joth by now, I think you should agree that's valid. Either the wagon is on scum, in which case scum aren't going to quick-hammer, or one of the people already voting is scum (that would be you and me), in which case there aren't two to quick-hammer. If the scum-team were e and Glooble, they could have taken joth out by now. So from my point if view, I'm really confident that one of you and joth is part of the scum-team.

The hatedness does have a bearing on the logic, and the quote of yours from Day 2 is just me going back and searching for "hated" to see if you'd previously said something one way or another. It establishes that you weren't confident that Ash was still hated either (neither was I or WCD), which is the point I was trying to make. It raises an eyebrow for me because you seem to be operating under the assumption that the scumteam did know Ash was still hated for all the wagons you were talking about there.

I get what you're saying, but hatedness does matter a lot. If Ash weren't going to be hated tomorrow, people not jumping in to hammer you/Joth wouldn't be relevant, right? Because this wouldn't be LYLO.

[SpaceAnemone]

I think you're working from a false premise and that needs to be called out.

You are incorrect about Ash's hatedness being a premise that I'm using to derive any of my results. Does that help?

Scum would not have wanted to just scummily pile on a wagon to push a lynch through if it wasn't LYLO, and if they didn't know Ash was still double hated, as they may not have at the times of some of those, the fact that someone wasn't hammered after doesn't mean anything.

Are you trying to argue that scum won't vote for townies they think they can mislynch, unless they think they're almost in LYLO? Do you think that most mislynches go through without a single scum being on-wagon?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Scum would not have wanted to just scummily pile on a wagon to push a lynch through if it wasn't LYLO, and if they didn't know Ash was still double hated, as they may not have at the times of some of those, the fact that someone wasn't hammered after doesn't mean anything.

Are you trying to argue that scum won't vote for townies they think they can mislynch, unless they think they're almost in LYLO? Do you think that most mislynches go through without a single scum being on-wagon?

You could be a bit less combative while strawmaning me. (Strawwomaning?)

[UmbrageOfSnow]

So your position is that if scum could vote to get a mislynch if they vote together that they will always do so? Because that sounds like an absurd strawman to me, but it also seems like the point you're actually pushing if Ash's hatedness doesn't play into it.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Space, who is your strongest townread?

[jotheonah]

Yeah, no offense but I think it's highly unlikely scum are as bad at this game as your analysis seems to suggest.

[SpaceAnemone]

I get what you're saying, but hatedness does matter a lot. If Ash weren't going to be hated tomorrow, people not jumping in to hammer you/Joth wouldn't be relevant, right? Because this wouldn't be LYLO.

The issue of whether the two of us leaving joth at L-2 means one of the three of us is scum is not actually the subject of my "logic problem" post.

The "logic-problem" post pulls out big wagons from early in the game (including D1 before anyone knew anything about Ash being hated at all), and asserts that it is highly likely that scum will be somewhere on them, or will be the person the wagon formed on in the first place.

This works because it is rare for there to be a large wagon where all the people are townies voting for another townie, without a single scum in the mix. So if you collect up all such big wagons from across a game, you're going to get very few where the one-scum-in-n constraint is not met.

Now, maybe if hated!Ash is an alternative wagon to one of the ones I'd used to build a constraint from, it could make him more into a more attractive wagon for scum to join, thus making other wagons less attractive. I'd respect a counter-argument based around that. However, your tactic of outright declaring that you're not interested in taking the time to read through my working, while at the same time stating to the thread that you think my work has to be wrong is just bad.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

You're presenting your constraints as a lot stronger than I think they are, and I'm busy and I have more productive things to spend what time I have to spend on this game on.

I'm pointing out what I believe to be a significant issue with your analysis that some one needs to point out because a lot of people are inclined to just nod along with these things, but that doesn't mean you can assign me 2 hours of game homework that I focus on instead of the more productive things I could be looking at.

[SpaceAnemone]

Yeah, no offense but I think it's highly unlikely scum are as bad at this game as your analysis seems to suggest.

Go tell that to the game where I caught faust-or-Haddock as a scumteam using exactly this technique :-) It's actually a very tricky tactic for scum to adapt to, because they've got to keep voting for someone, and even bussing doesn't hide from it, because at-least-one-in-n accounts for the possibility of scum being on a scum wagon.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

You look at 6 wagons, 3 of them are from Day 4.

[SpaceAnemone]

You're presenting your constraints as a lot stronger than I think they are, and I'm busy and I have more productive things to spend what time I have to spend on this game on.

I'm pointing out what I believe to be a significant issue with your analysis that some one needs to point out because a lot of people are inclined to just nod along with these things, but that doesn't mean you can assign me 2 hours of game homework that I focus on instead of the more productive things I could be looking at.

I laid it all out so that you don't have to spend two hours recreating it from scratch. A couple of random spot-checks can reassure anyone that the wagons I'm singling out actually happened: scum!me could not get away with pulling out false evidence here and presenting it to the whole thread. So, let's assume that the wagons I pulled out all happened. Okay so far?

Next, I listed the constraints in a short form, and I kept myself in all the relevant groupings, just so I'm not accused of trying to make myself look any less likely to be scum.

Third, I went through every possible scum-pairing out of every player including me in the game, and I counted by hand (so I would appreciate it if anyone wants to take 5 minutes to check that!) how many of the constraints each possible pairing violated. I did not apply them as hard constraints, and I made it clear that I expect numbers other than only zero to indicate a likely scumteam. I tabulated the entire thing so that nobody else needed to repeat it, even for the really unlikely teams like, Ash-Awaclus, which met zero of my five constraints.

There could well be actual valid criticisms of my reasoning. I would like for more than one other person to respond to say they've looked at it and it seems valid, because that way more people could trust it and use it to catch scum when the PoE narrows later. I'm frustrated that the only person engaging is instead claiming to have this clever insight about how everything I'd done is wrong or worthless while insisting you're not going to read it properly.

If anyone wants assistance in coming up with a better dialog about it, the latter parts are based on a two-person scumteam assumption, and there are plenty of people who were arguing against that earlier. For another thing, there are places where the fact I did the calculations by hand as I posted mean I could have made simple counting or typing errors.

[SpaceAnemone]

Space, who is your strongest townread?

Probably Ash or Awaclus at this rate, since they looked less likely as a scum pairing with you or joth. If you want "townread" in the purely "gut" sense, then e is probably high up, but I'm bad at gut, and trust evidence more. WCD is in a juxtaposition of reading as really townie on the one hand, and just having too many suspicious inconsistencies about the things she says on the other.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I'm not accusing you of making up wagons, and I wasn't inclined to check those either, I was saying that reading the post, your constraints were presented way more forcefully than is justified.

AND you filter everything at the end by #1505, which is before Ash clarifies that he is hated forever. You give that wagon an enormous amount of weight in how you present your analysis.

And doing so removes nearly all the Space scumteams from the summary list at the end, which is what most people are going to look at if they don't take time to go through it carefully.

You then throw in a remark about not caring about hated, but that constraint isn't nearly worth that amount of weight if scum aren't assuming Ash is hated. When you wrote the post this had already come out, but not at the time of that wagon.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Yeah this is a weird game, I think Awaclus might be the most widely townread player after Ash.

[Glooble]

I'm leaning towards lynching Ash today. I'm not confident enough to go for a scum lynch.

[jotheonah]

Yeah, no offense but I think it's highly unlikely scum are as bad at this game as your analysis seems to suggest.

Go tell that to the game where I caught faust-or-Haddock as a scumteam using exactly this technique :-) It's actually a very tricky tactic for scum to adapt to, because they've got to keep voting for someone, and even bussing doesn't hide from it, because at-least-one-in-n accounts for the possibility of scum being on a scum wagon.

I was actually referring to not your wagon analysis (which I find intriguing!) but your quickhammer me-and-UoS theory. Plenty of cautious scum would not go for the double quickhammer here.

[WestCoastDidds]

Deadline is tomorrow at noon. We should probably decide in the next however long.

I don’t feel confident enough in my scum reads at present. So, I think based on the argument that she becomes to great a liability by virtue of double-hated later on, Ashersky is the best choice.

[SpaceAnemone]

In other news, it's getting pretty likely that at least one of these four people is scum:

UmbrageOfSnow (3): 2.71828....., Glooble, WestCoastDidds

Otherwise scum would have quickhammered already.

Here's a quote from when Awaclus looks at one of the exact wagons form D4 that went to L-2. UoS forgot to tell him it's invalid because Ash is hated, and joth forgot to tell him that scum aren't that bad.

The main response that Awaclus got was support from e for the idea that UoS was the likely scum.

[SpaceAnemone]

Vote: UoS

The more I look at the way he's objecting to the scum-hunting, by arguing side-points about whether we call Ash a suggested policy-lynch or strategy lynch, and by trying to discredit my scum-hunting without engaging with it even just to pick from it the parts that might help his own cases, the more I think he's the better bet. Sorry I wasn't on board with that sooner.

[jotheonah]

In other news, it's getting pretty likely that at least one of these four people is scum:

UmbrageOfSnow (3): 2.71828....., Glooble, WestCoastDidds

Otherwise scum would have quickhammered already.

Here's a quote from when Awaclus looks at one of the exact wagons form D4 that went to L-2. UoS forgot to tell him it's invalid because Ash is hated, and joth forgot to tell him that scum aren't that bad.

The main response that Awaclus got was support from e for the idea that UoS was the likely scum.

Awaclus was wrong in exactly the same way you are wrong. But I expect it from him.

[WestCoastDidds]

Vote: UoS

The more I look at the way he's objecting to the scum-hunting, by arguing side-points about whether we call Ash a suggested policy-lynch or strategy lynch, and by trying to discredit my scum-hunting without engaging with it even just to pick from it the parts that might help his own cases, the more I think he's the better bet. Sorry I wasn't on board with that sooner.

I can get behind this if we are not doing Ashersky. I think that the decision, for me, is UoS or Ash.