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[Glooble]

Ok, here goes. I am Translator Dlique, the triggered temporary treestumper. If I am lynched, anyone on my wagon loses their vote the next day, and town size for a lynch is calculated based on the people who have votes.

So I thought, if there were three people who basically everyone trusted to be town, we could have everyone else lynch me, thereby buying us a day for those three trusted townies to catch scum. I figured even if one of our townreads was wrong, the other two could still over-rule them.

Then I realized scum could just nightkill one of them. And it would still at that point, only take one vote to lynch ash. So we'd have to be damn sure of our reads.

But its an option and I wanted to put it out there.

[faust]

Vote Count 4.6

jotheonah (1): UmbrageOfSnow
SpaceAnemone (3): 2.71828....., Glooble, WestCoastDidds

Not Voting (4): SpaceAnemone, jotheonah, ashersky, Awaclus

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 4 ends on February 13, 2019, 12:00:00 pm.

[jotheonah]

Ok, here goes. I am Translator Dlique, the triggered temporary treestumper. If I am lynched, anyone on my wagon loses their vote the next day, and town size for a lynch is calculated based on the people who have votes.

So I thought, if there were three people who basically everyone trusted to be town, we could have everyone else lynch me, thereby buying us a day for those three trusted townies to catch scum. I figured even if one of our townreads was wrong, the other two could still over-rule them.

Then I realized scum could just nightkill one of them. And it would still at that point, only take one vote to lynch ash. So we'd have to be damn sure of our reads.

But its an option and I wanted to put it out there.

It's a fun plan, but this Space case is looking good. Lynching scum today is definitely the best plan?

[2.71828.....]

Ok, here goes. I am Translator Dlique, the triggered temporary treestumper. If I am lynched, anyone on my wagon loses their vote the next day, and town size for a lynch is calculated based on the people who have votes.

So I thought, if there were three people who basically everyone trusted to be town, we could have everyone else lynch me, thereby buying us a day for those three trusted townies to catch scum. I figured even if one of our townreads was wrong, the other two could still over-rule them.

Then I realized scum could just nightkill one of them. And it would still at that point, only take one vote to lynch ash. So we'd have to be damn sure of our reads.

But its an option and I wanted to put it out there.

yeah, probably not going to work.

[jotheonah]

I want to give space a chance to respond. But I’m willing to vote/hammer.

[ashersky]

I think the remaining scum are SA and Awaclus.  The remaining possibilities for me would be joth and UoS.

I wanted to lay out my thinking while I had a moment:

Glooble -- as you may recall, I scum read her pretty much all game.  Based on her claim, however, I think she must be town.  For the claim to be fake, she had to also have a fake plan to go with it that got called off.  For the claim to be real from scum, she never would have claimed it, they would have orchestrated a full town wagon and used the treestumped town to win.  So I think it's a real town claim.

2.7 -- a correct cop result on yourself usually makes for some confirmation bias, but I'm focusing on the Governor claim.  Obviously I didn't die, and it wasn't my doing, so I believe it.  Best use of a scum governor is saving your scum partner at an opportune time, not saving a random townie on Day 1.

WCD -- I guess at some point, too many rookie mistakes/misunderstandings/learning moments are too many to be faked.  Scum neighborizer and their various versions have existed, but I think it's more likely WCD was duped by being too innocent and upfront with unknown QT partners.

That leaves SA, UoS, joth, Awaclus.

I settled on SA/Awa based on their interaction all game seeming to not really be interaction at all.  Plus, SA has been scummy, per everyone.  UoS is also scummy, and the doc claim is suspect, but she is probably lying/holding back there.  And it's a meta-read, but I have a hard time imagining Robz quitting a game as scum, ever.  And joth has just been playing very, very well, which is something she generally hasn't done as scum (no offense).

Plus, someone has to still be Anaander, right?  That's just a random note.

Anyway, very firm town reads based on claims/actions, not on my own reads, which is probably better.  I'm generally trusting scum does what is best for them, and those three haven't.  Scum reads based on interactions and reads, plus a little meta.  Not as good, but POE is strong.

[ashersky]

With all that posted, I feel okay lynching SA, BUT...

This is basically LYLO if we lynch anyone but me.  If we lynch me, it's mostly LYLO tomorrow, minus two townies (as compared to today).

If SA is the lynch tomorrow anyway, I guess we just lynch her today and go with it.  But if there's any thought that reducing the pool before pulling the trigger is good for town, it is better to lynch me now.

[jotheonah]

Can you shoot yourself?

[jotheonah]

I’m thinking it’s Spce and Snow

[jotheonah]

There’s some irony in the meta around cop and doc claims, which I think tend to have the opposite affect to the intended one. I’m almost tempted to say claiming doc or cop is so cliche that scum aren’t doing it anymore.

[ashersky]

I cannot shoot, sorry.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

Glooble's plan and the top-3-townreads thing is a bad idea, it relies on the majority not only voting scum, but correctly calling the scumteam.

Ash, do you remain double-hated forever? i.e. if we correctly lynch scum etc. down to a 2v1 LYLO, does it take just 1 vote to lynch you?

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I mean, that would be 0 if you were double-hated, but assuming you need at least 1 vote, right?

[jotheonah]

Ash’s willingness to be policy lynched is very towny. Could be a scum ploy and if anyone had the guts for it Ash would, but I’m inclined to say this is exactly what it looks like. And as I said before, I like the e lynch significantly less if Ash is town, for reasons ash articulated above. So yeah, down with the space lynch.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I think Ash is town too, but I think we should lynch Ash if she's going to be 1-vote lynchable at any point in the game.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

I don't think anyone is suggesting this, but people were linking their alignments earlier: if Space flips scum there is basically no chance WCD is scum with her. LaLight is hyper-aware of her own meta, Space made a bunch of points about mail-mi/LL interaction, I think there is no way a Space/LaLight scumteam doesn't discuss LaLight interaction meta in the scum QT, but when I questioned WCD on that earlier, her entirely missing the point of what I was asking with regard to LL reads very genuine to me.

[SpaceAnemone]

I think e's case on me is a ridiculous stretch, that feels from here like a load of confirmation bias. Yes, I don't get strong reads on people in D1. When does that ever happen? At least i was townreading Hyper, unlike e. Apparently e is not scumreading my correct read on hyper because I happened to quote a jokey RVS post by a flipped scum. That's the kind of interaction where the lack of it might be a scumtell for people who can't interact naturally with scumbuddies, but is in no way a good reason to scumread a townie who doesn't know which people they shouldn't be including in fourth-level-quoted suspicious conversation.

The thing about me defending LL is a stretch, though it's true to say I was sympathetic to him. I was modding him in Czech mafia, and I knew he didn't like being scum, so I'd hoped he was town here. As for his actual scumslips, WCD can confirm that I was onto it even before most of the thread, because of his use of the word "bugged".

Before anyone does any more voting, can I have an hour to post the stuff I've been working through this evening? I'm currently in the middle of a chat with a friend that's delaying me a bit...

PPE 6

[SpaceAnemone]

I don't think anyone is suggesting this, but people were linking their alignments earlier: if Space flips scum there is basically no chance WCD is scum with her. LaLight is hyper-aware of her own meta, Space made a bunch of points about mail-mi/LL interaction, I think there is no way a Space/LaLight scumteam doesn't discuss LaLight interaction meta in the scum QT, but when I questioned WCD on that earlier, her entirely missing the point of what I was asking with regard to LL reads very genuine to me.

I actually don't follow the end of the sentence there. I mean, I agree that if I'd been scum with LL we probable would have talked about alignments, but I don't follow where the WCD part comes in.

[UmbrageOfSnow]

WCD looked at LaLight posts earlier when I'd said we should take some time to reread them, but she totally glossed over the interaction stuff, then I pressed her on Adventure Time Mafia (which I'd read during the Czech neverending LYLO) and the way she didn't remember and then came back and talked about some interaction stuff read to me like someone genuinely considering this for the first time rather than making it up.

Not sure if that's any clearer, and too many tabs open to go quote hunting now, but that interaction about the LaLight reread doesn't come from a WCD/Space/LL scumteam ever.

I'm just throwing out hot takes as they occur to me. I'd rather we didn't end the day tonight, period, but we don't always get what we want apparently.

[Glooble]

unvote

I don’t really think it’s necessary, but I’d like to hear out UoS and Space.

[ashersky]

I am forever double hated.

If we don’t lynch me today, and lynch correctly instead, I will take two to lynch tomorrow assuming six alive, with hopefully only one scum left.

That is the risk, and why I am suggesting caution today, and probably my own lynch first.

[SpaceAnemone]

Looking at the rest of e's case:

There is other stuff from D3, but focusing on WCD interactions.

tl;dr - Space developed their scum read on WCD when it was convenient to them.  They first went through and joined the lynch of a popular mail-mi wagon on D3, and now on D4 when they need someone else to lynch, they turn to WCD, who they already had "trapped" in a jumbled claim.

WCD made a jumbled claim that contradicted not only what she'd said in the private QT we'd had, but also what she'd said in-thread, and involved a story about faust changing her role description around mid-game. The number of accidental coincidences seems high.

It was quite inconvenient for me to start doubting my biggest townread, and I don't see the scum!me logic in doing so. If I hadn't picked up all those inconsistencies, it doesn't look like anyone else was going to notice, so I could just have left WCD as an obv!town player to NK off or sop up the claimed doc shot (unless you think UoS is scum with me, in which case maybe there isn't even a doctor to get in the way of that scenario). Casting lots of suspicion on WCD when there aren't any clear townreads isn't helping scum!Space's goal, which should be to drive one or two likely mislynch wagons and take out the most high-value towns that scum!Space could push, because having the extra PoE would be helpful with that. Not to mention that making WCD start to doubt my honesty even though I'm not playing inconsistently or posting anything that's not true isn't helping us either.

[SpaceAnemone]

Not sure if that's any clearer, and too many tabs open to go quote hunting now, but that interaction about the LaLight reread doesn't come from a WCD/Space/LL scumteam ever.

Sure, got it now, thanks. I already knew it's not that particular scum-team; I was kind of hoping you could either persuade people that even two of the three wouldn't be feasible somehow, because that would help restore trust in WCD from my perspective, which would still help me with PoE.

[jotheonah]

Ok, here goes. I am Translator Dlique, the triggered temporary treestumper. If I am lynched, anyone on my wagon loses their vote the next day, and town size for a lynch is calculated based on the people who have votes.

So I thought, if there were three people who basically everyone trusted to be town, we could have everyone else lynch me, thereby buying us a day for those three trusted townies to catch scum. I figured even if one of our townreads was wrong, the other two could still over-rule them.

Then I realized scum could just nightkill one of them. And it would still at that point, only take one vote to lynch ash. So we'd have to be damn sure of our reads.

But its an option and I wanted to put it out there.

Did you bread crumb this earlier when someone suggested that the Presgar were the scum team and you said something like "I don't think the Presgar are the scum team"?

[WestCoastDidds]

Unvote until we decide what to do about Ashersky.

Double hated forever blows.