Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Awaclus]

Weird question, but I promise I'm going somewhere with this-

Can everyone please list your three strongest townreads who are not yourself, ashersky, or me?

Space, UoS and joth.

[ashersky]

So I think one of {UoS, WCD, 2.7} is mosdef scum. 

[ashersky]

Someone could unvote me for now, until we decide to end the day, given I’m at L1.

[Awaclus]

Unvote

[Glooble]

unvote

[WestCoastDidds]

Weird question, but I promise I'm going somewhere with this-

Can everyone please list your three strongest townreads who are not yourself, ashersky, or me?

Joth, SA, e

[jotheonah]

WCD, Awaclus ... that’s it. I guess if I had to name a third with the restrictions younrovided, Space.

[Glooble]

My answers, btw, for the purpose of this exercise, are WCD, Joth, and Awaclus (as much as it pains me to say it.)

[2.71828.....]

Why Space is Scum, Part 1 (through D2)

D1) Intro to the Game - the entirety of D1 Space did....well....basically nothing.  Some excitement about the flavor, some other random posts.  But really nothing.

This was the only "productive" thing that I found for the entire day:

Busy day.. read a little from work but I try not to post from there except at lunch. Maybe I should collect up reactions to stuff in one tidy post now rather than spamming the thread with possible fluff.

Re the Mail-mi conversation, I see a big difference between useful logistics (like working out who knows the flavour and preempting and last-minute complaints about deadline timings) and actual set-up stuff. My usual "thing" is to get very into probabilities and analysis of configurations, which I just can't do here. Am I just being too particular about my definition?

I agree that massclaims aren't going to get us far on D1. I probably like D3 for that sort of thing, or maybe D4 depending on what info we get about how this game works from the flips. Not sure it's worth joth jumping on Mail-mi for the comment, though we have to find reasons to vote somewhere. Robz and e's reaction-votes seem totally fair.

On the actual topic of flavour that Mail-mi was trying to steer towards, I think it's highly likely that faust has made the game unbreakable for flavour claims. I'm sure there was a discussion somewhere around here quite recently about how to assign flavour names. Was it during the Dirk Gently game? I'd have to go and look, but other people almost certainly have better memories than me.

I agree with hyper's stance on wagons being good. They're excellent for PPE later in the game if townie people don't always sit in one spot the whole time, because there are certain patterns of votes that scums just don't feel comfortable with, and there's always the risk that bussing scums trying not to be obvious about who their partners are end up taking it too far. Recently, late-game me has gotten frustrated with early-game me for not making enough use of votes in D1 to help me later on with my analysis. I do often find D1 just really hard to get my teeth into, though, so don't expect me to do too well at this one all at once :-P

They do feel the need to chime in on a pseudo-RVS vote by LaLight (spoilers, more sketchy LaLight interactions to follow):

oh, and also vote: hypercube for reading the setup

What do you mean by this? Is this just an early random vote?

In my experience scum is more inclined to read the setup thoroughly to not accidentally show they have more information than other people

Is that really the case? I think certain people as scum are more likely to have a grasp of the complexities of a setup because while they're not players who might usually pore over the setup text thinking about interactions, if they have scumbuddies then they might pick things up in the scum QT that they wouldn't be expected to come up with alone. While I don't know hyper that well, I'm not sure I'd put him into the group of people who I wouldn't expect to read and think about it on their own. (My prototypical person I'm thinking of for that group is PPS!).

But then they have a "pressure vote" on mcmc and not much else.

This is their reaction to the Ashersky vig shot:

On the optimality or otherwise of picking mcmc for the dayvig shot, I think my "case" on mcmc was that he wasn't playing very much, so given that we had to lynch someone, it was better to pick him than anyone who was active, if everyone felt equally likely to be scum. Several others including Ash said they thought mcmc was town because he wouldn't be so absent if he'd rolled scum, though personally I stayed on that wagon because scum mimicking these long player absences seems like a thing that will happen unless we make that behaviour less attractive.

Either way, as far as the rest of us know so far, Ash's shot wasn't compulsory for him. That means it wasn't a case of picking the least-bad of a set of options, so I agree with the people (e at least?) who're wondering why he didn't shoot a scumread instead of blaming the rest of us for picking mcmc. OTOH, he's explicitly hinting with "Plus what it did for my next shot" at #377 that the game might give him some boost for having used his shot and he apparently has another shot.. so if that appears not to come to pass, we could have actual evidence of scummy behaviour on his part.

And then the day ended with the Ashersky lynch.  If I were to describe SA's D1 in one word I would probably say "safe."  Very friendly, talking about flavor, no controversial opinions.  But no reads that stick out now given the flips that we have.  They did go out of their way to combat LL's vote, so there is that.

D2) The Game Begins in Earnest.

Space opens up with some discussion about Ashersky and myself.  There is also a hint of throwing shade on my result, but hey, that could just be trying to confirm it.

Ash being town seems kind of plausible, though I still don't like yesterday's choice of shot when one of the main people pushing that wagon -- me -- was specifically pushing it with the agenda that all other things being equal, mcmc was the least bad of the set, and we had to lynch someone. That is a world away from "town needs to lynch this person because they're scummy", which is how Ash is presenting his action.

@e, how confident are you that you can't have been redirected, and that your result can't come from a godfather or some mechanism similar to that?

Then we have this defense of LaLight which I find to be very interesting:

I would be happy to start an LL wagon. I also think we should be looking at Robz.

I think LL's thing about criticizing Joth for SK-hunting (which was mostly directed at Ash), then scumreading e because e's role was just the sort of thing that the apparent recruiter faction would have is almost too lazy to be scummy. It also misses that e and Ash are kind of linked by e's claimed PR result on Ash, which I don't think he'd feel the need to claim as scum. That is, unless e and Ash are on the same scum/recruiter faction.

LaLight's criticism of Joth and scumreading me is "too lazy to be scummy."  It just feels off.  Why does Space need to defend LaLight here?

I see what hyper have said. But it still rubs me the wrong way. Third-parties do not work with town. maybe faust overrode this somehow, but then why wouldn't one of those third-party guys told us so? Why wouldn't hyper then convert and claim basically the same thing, but staying alive? if they are not the enemy, that is. hyper would be alive, scum would need to kill one more person. But no, hyper declined and we lose a person, who in any case would help town, being either town or so-called helping third party

Reading back, this response, coming from LL (who prefers to play town, I'm pretty sure), seems actually quite consistent with his faction-change claim, in that it shows some frustration with faction changes. I do wonder whether he has some inkling of how town-aligned he'd end up if he takes the faction change, though.

Then this isn't really defending LaLight, per se, but it is definitely sympathetic to LaLight and deflecting arguments away from LaLight.  Again, just doesn't sit right with me.

And then the whole saga of "oh, I would've voted for LaLight, honest.  I just had this ultra secret motive in my ultra secret qt with WCD."  Which really, to be honest, looks like they are just manipulating WCD this whole time.  But that will be for D3/D4 I guess.

LL retconning an option into his claim is scummy.

Yes, I agree with this. I'll vote there to get a lynch through, but I'm not also trying to work out whether LL's claim still has more to tell us about the game setup.

Sure, mail-mi is a would-lynch. I wondered where most of the scrutiny on him from D1 went, though I was voting him for much of that time anyway.

Vote: mail-mi

My main would-lynch is still LL.

I wouldn't lynch Awaclus at this point without a scummy flip from LL of a type that indicates LL was on a team with other scums.

I think there is enough there to go ahead and change my vote, but I will continue on to D3/D4.

vote: SpaceAnemone

I will vote UoS or Space today unless absolutely necessary to go elsewhere, but it sounds like UoS is losing steam.  Lets change it up a bit.  Plus, UoS can allegedly "confirm" themself or something tonight.

[2.71828.....]

Weird question, but I promise I'm going somewhere with this-

Can everyone please list your three strongest townreads who are not yourself, ashersky, or me?

joth, Awaclus, and WCD

[SpaceAnemone]

Weird question, but I promise I'm going somewhere with this-

Can everyone please list your three strongest townreads who are not yourself, ashersky, or me?

I don't really have strong townreads any more right now. I mean, WCD sounds townie, and so does e. But if I have to assume that you and Ash are also townie, then an e-WCD scumteam actually fits the various wagon constraints. So does UoS-Joth, though, and that's more of a scummy-seeming team.

For reference, here are the various wagon constraints I've pulled out:
At least one from {e,Glooble,UoS} -- from the hypercube wagon #307-#328
At least one from {WCD,Joth,Glooble} -- from the mcmc wagon D1 #328-#348
(There's not much useful PoE from D2 because of LL's scumslip)
At least one from {e,Glooble,joth} -- Space wagon #1095-#1168 (Ash joined part-way-through, but the constraint is the same).
At least one from {UoS,Joth,Awaclus,Ash,e} -- The UoS wagon D4, #1505-#1536
At least one from {UoS,e,Glooble,WCD} -- The UoS wagon D4, #1713-#1778
At least one from {UoS,e,WCD,Ash} -- The UoS wagon D4, #1792-#1822
Probably at least one from {joth,Glooble,Awaclus} because of the mail-mi wagon.

Note that I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't any scum in one of the "at least one from.." sets, but I don't expect many of them to be wrong.

PPE: massive case by e that I definitely don't have time to look through properly till after work.

[Glooble]

I don't really have strong townreads any more right now. I mean, WCD sounds townie, and so does e. But if I have to assume that you and Ash are also townie, then an e-WCD scumteam actually fits the various wagon constraints. So does UoS-Joth, though, and that's more of a scummy-seeming team.

Never said anything about assuming ash and I are town. I just have to exclude both of us for reasons which will become clear.

[WestCoastDidds]

To e’s long post....
It is definitely the case that I could have been manipulated by Space. I don’t think so, but that’s how manipulation works, right?

Since LL’s claim occupied most of D2 when we were talking, and she was scum reading him for it, but if she thought the writing was on the wall and needed to cut bait, doing so with me gave her considerable town cred.

DatSwan had her in his scum list and wasn’t terribly swayed by my read of her.

[Glooble]

So, upon thinking about my plan a little more, I've come to the conclusion that it probably sucks. Sorry to waste everyone's time.

[jotheonah]

What if ... ash shoots himself? We get an informational flip now, we get rid of the hated problem, and we get back to odd numbers after today's lynch.

[2.71828.....]

There is other stuff from D3, but focusing on WCD interactions.

tl;dr - Space developed their scum read on WCD when it was convenient to them.  They first went through and joined the lynch of a popular mail-mi wagon on D3, and now on D4 when they need someone else to lynch, they turn to WCD, who they already had "trapped" in a jumbled claim.

Bolding with a larger font is mine for emphasis

I can't believe this is what we're spending our beginning of the day talking about.

vote: Awaclus

We can do better.

Vote: WestCoastDidds

On wagon D1, off wagon D2

Hmm.  Hard to argue with that.  A bit obvious maybe?  Then again WCD is new.

For the record, I strongly townread WCD.

Also worth noting:  Space was offwagon.

I wanted to join WCD (whom I trusted as townie) on the alternative mail-mi wagon because I couldn't feel the Swan wagon (which at that point was also at 2 votes), and I wanted to see what people did if there was an apparent going concern that wasn't LL. For me, I get WCD and myself as green-coloured names on a wagon on an unknown player. Whoever joins in 3rd/4th place is more likely not to be the same faction as mail-mi, so it gets information even while we're queueing up LL for the lynch.

I really really don't like the above.  At no point (again, that I can find) does Space vote for Lalight.  And yet says that LL is their main lynch candidate, while voting elsewhere.  What's that about?  In light of LL's flip I'd say that looks really scummy.  It gives you something to point to later and say "no but look I wanted LL lynched too" without ever actually helping the lynch.

I did want to lynch LL, but I also wanted to hunt for the other scums too with the time and resources left in D2 (before more weird night stuff and cult conversions came in to mess with my reads on people).

Wouldn't you say that it's interesting that the only other person who joined the wagon was LL herself, and even then, she eventually realised that it was too useful to town to let all that continue, and self-hammered rather than see her buddies tempted into exposing themselves on the mail-mi wagon?

I also note that you are now voting mail-mi, so you can't exactly accuse me of not having had grounds to be suspicious in the first place: mail-mi's behaviour hasn't been townie.

Space I'd like you to explain yourself a bit, I think.  Just, like: why the above vote, why didn't you ever vote Lalight, why the lack of votes in general, etc.

I mean, why vote LL at that point? Just to end the day sooner? I don't think it was particularly unreasonable for me to have assumed the day would still be going on at 9 or 10pm our time the day after I cast the mail-mi vote, even though it ended before noon (UK time). It just shows that more people agreed that LL was the correct lynch choice than could actually fit on the wagon, which is not that surprising when someone looks like they've probably scumslipped.

The LL wagon. I spent the majority of the second half of D2 saying that I thought LL was scum. But if I had voted for him when I was saying that, he’d have been at L-1, and I didn’t want to do that in the event that she was hated for something like that and then I’d be the one who ended the day early. So, I continued to argue for the LL lynch, and stated my hesitancy in voting until the days end was closer.

Not wanting to vote for someone in case they get lynched is closely related to what Haddock has taken exception to me over, which is not voting early enough for someone I said I thought was scummy.

As I watched people talk about LL, I wondered if it would be productive to see who he might jump to, given the chance. I chose Mail-mi because he hadn’t been around recently. At that point he hadn’t done anything really scummy, so I figured that if a real wagon formed on him, it would be illustrative. Space followed (she discusses this elsewhere) and then LL. For me, that jumps sealed his scumminess. Asher seems to have thought the same thing in in #898. I’d have voted for him when I woke up, but Asher, e, and then LLtook care of that when I was sleeping.

I was considering Glooble for a while before mail-mi, but on my own wagon analysis, he doesn't look too bad. From my PoV, with WCD as a townread, I wanted a wagon with a lot of green on it to make the black and red stand out.

Space, Joth, and Glooble seem the most town to me.
Asher and e are a question. I have them green for now, but it tricky, you know? It would have been a set of bold scum moves, but bold wouldn’t be terribly surprising.
Awa is frustrating folks. That seems NAI, but also easy to lynch.
Haddock is new to me and I like the way he shares his thinking. But I don’t have any of the experience others have playing with her, and I don’t have a good sense of her. Town leaning.
UoS- (hi! I haven’t seen you since my first game ever!) I don’t have a sense of yet
Mail-mi wasn’t super scummy to me when I voted for her, but has become so as a result of the claim and the posts that followed it. She’s at the top of my list, at present. 

This isn't chum-to-scum ordering in the middle, is it? I actually think Haddock is quite townie, and Awa, while he's too easy a mislynch, is also not guaranteed to be town just because he's a stick in the mud.

It's also important not to bind a read of Ash to a read of e. If Ash is scum, then e is not likely to be town because of the cop claim. If Ash is town and we're just considering that cop-result interaction in isolation, it can still go both ways for e.

My own scum-to-chum list is roughly:

mail-mi
Awaclus, e
Joth, Glooble, UoS (null)
Ashersky
Haddock
WCD
Space

I need to read more RobzOfSnow and see whether I can work out anything about them.

Here we have LaLight establishing WCD's towniness and stating how they used the qt with them to help accomplish wagon analysis to catch scum.

And now Space has turned to defense mode with the large wagon, while maintaining a strong town read on WCD.

As for claims, I'm at L-2, and as a few reasonable people have pointed out, we still have time before the deadline.

Let's go straight to the source of why I suspect I'm actually getting as much heat as I am. I know I was RBd (or something similar) on N1, because I tried targeting someone, and it wasn't successful. I expect that whoever blocked me saw that there was no NK, and drew an incorrect conclusion. This error will be obvious when I flip, but if another townie has a good explanation for the missing NK that they can give in-thread without revealing too much more than is already out there, then that could prevent a mislynch.

PPE 7 because I'm extremely unsure about what's useful to claim and what's too much and it's after 3am here!

Umbridge, get well soon!!

Okay, full claim from me first, then the actual interesting stuff in a following post.

I'm Fosyf Denche, the wealthy land-owner. I'm Radch-aligned, and I have an x-shot power called Political Understanding, which is a modified voyeur. I get the names of any actions that target my target player that night, but in return that player is rendered invisible to certain other investigative actions that I still don't have a categorical understanding of. I've checked that I can't self-target, which is important for later.

N1 I targeted e, and got no result. This is consistent with WCD's original assertion.

N2 I targeted Glooble, and the result was that there were no Glooble-targeting actions to report. (Paraphrasing this quite a bit, but I know it was distinct to the response I got on e).

I've tried to pick townie-to-null targets so as not to interfere with other townie investigations, but not the most super-towny, because observing the NK is of limited utility.

Space knows a couple of other details about my role, but I’m not sure if I should share or no. Space, what do you think?

Haha.. forgive me for getting super-paranoid from up here on the block, but yes, you did tell me some stuff, and it got me very worried because you appeared to contradict it with what you said about Swan! That's what I wanted to talk about in the QT stuff I was/am going to post.

However, all but the initial mystery of it would be explained by you re-targeting Swan for D3 after talking D2. I didn't consider that as an option enough because I think I'd have wanted to keep picking new targets for a bit longer first.

vote: WCD

Space, why do you think WCD is town?  Because they opened a qt with you?  I guess they shared their power which made you believe they are town?

I had a pretty strong townread on WCD already at the end of D1. My continued confidence that she's town is all reads-based, rather than hard-evidence-based, if that's what you're asking.

Her playstyle felt too confident and open to be disingenuous, but hesitant enough to show actual thought. If she'd been weaving a complicated web of lies, that would have constituted considerable risk-taking on her part, and she seemed too relaxed and able to make small-talk (especially in our QT).

We didn't exactly immediately just jump to trusting each other, but she was open about her role and quite ready to give me details even though they apparently started out contradicting my own expectation (which was that I'd been RBd, which I thought should have triggered her motion detector).

I've seen town!WCD get scumread previously for being chatty and "fluffy", and I've also been on the wrong end of that kind of town opinion before, so her overall behaviour felt very comfortably consistent with what my less experienced town self might have done, except I'd've been trying to throw in more data analysis tricks.

My question: Why did Space not get the contradiction in claims on D3?  This seems so out of character for Space.  She is one of the most careful, most precise people who play mafia here.  We have WCD and Space confirm that they talked extensively about WCD's role?  How did Space not figure out that WCD's actual role was one of a tracker, not another type of investigation?

Going back to that first result that WCD had.  WCD targets Space, gets nothing.  Because Space was JK'ed by Swan (which Space likely didn't know at the time, but figured it out).  Also, why was Swan NKed?  WCD - did you mention anything at all about targeting Swan for your upcoming qt to Space?

The only conclusion that I get is that Space had another case that they needed to push through first.  mail-mi.  And as a reminder - lynching 3rd parties is a great way for scum to get town cred:

I'm about to do an automated vote count, but before I do, I should actually get my vote down:

Vote: Mail-mi

The Mail-mi factors I'm considering:
1. LL voted Mail-mi briefly early on before moving off quickly, which is a great way to break the how-to-interact-with-partners thing.
2. They were both on the joth wagon on D1. LL had just been scum with Joth in M120, so I can see him being keen on not having a recent scumbuddy in the game.
3. They did not interact on any of the same wagons D2 (MM was mostly on Joth, and LL on e).
4. Mail-mi defended LL's claim, asking what motivation scum!LL would have had for claiming that.

And the major one:

5. LL did vote for Mail-mi near the very end of D2, when WCD and I were seeing what would happen there. Importantly, there were perfect scum bus conditions in effect, and yet nobody (other than LL) moved from LL to MM when that wagon was in place, which suggests a fryingpan-fire sort of situation to me, where MM isn't actually the right wagon to coax scum off onto, because he's scum too.

Bonus fact: Mail-mi only put down one vote on D2, and it was on Joth. If people think I'm scummy for not having reached the point of voting for LL before he hammered himself, I feel that in order to be consistent, they should think that Mail-mi is even more scummy: he was clearly around online at the correct sort of time (unlike me), actively defending LL (unlike me), and not voting LL.

Look at all the "interaction with LL" in this case.  Space is acutely aware of every single interaction mail-mi had with LaLight and was eager to pin it on them.  Because Space knew they weren't getting scum, they were lynching 3rd party.

vote: SA

I say we run them both up and see where it leads. I could do with a credible claim from SA at this point to bump me over to MM.

For context: SA is in-general scummy this game; Mail-mi has scummy bad claims / gameplay.

I'm accused of sounding scummy pretty much every game.

Also, is "run them both up" mean to imply equal pressure? Somehow you're putting me to unannounced L-1, while leaving Mail-mi on a mere L-3.

Lastly, UoS did ask just a handful of posts ago not to end the day so quickly, so I don't think you're helping him!

PPE: e

And then as they are getting pressure they push back at silly things like "unannounced L-1" (which I consider to be ridiculous.  There is like 0.0001% chance someone accidentally hammers.  Well, maybe I should increase those odds a bit since it has actually happened here on f.ds.  Let's say, with over 100 regular games and 50 RMMs, I don't know 150x4 lynches per game (average), 600 lynches, that (I will be generous) 5 of them were totally accidental.  So 0.008% chance someone hammers accidentally.

It is all smoke and mirrors.

Sorry, WCD, I think you were duped by Space.

[2.71828.....]

Also, why was Swan NKed?  WCD - did you mention anything at all about targeting Swan for your upcoming qt to Space?

In case it gets lost in my big post, I would like you to answer this WCD.  This may just be wild conjecture that is completely wrong, but maybe not?

[WestCoastDidds]

No, I did not say I was targeting swan. I asked her advice about who I should target, and she gave reads on everyone. They were all mostly mixed, but the best options seemed to be e, Joth, haddock, or Swan. I chose Swan because I knew him a little already and figured he’d be easy for me to talk to.

One thing I just shared with Joth is about the level of interaction.
64 messages with Space over a week.
56 with Swan over 2 days
155 so far with Joth over 5 days
So, it felt to me like we were interacting a lot, but in reality it wasn’t as much as would come later.

Besides LL, we talked a lot about the cult and recruiting. If I assume the LL stuff was because she was cutting bait where LL was concerned, there is far less to recommend her.

Then, when I look at the way I have been occupied with answering her questions about my role and the information I’ve provided, it feels calculated (as you note) to be convenient for her. She seems to be engaged, but it’s not real engagement because she knows I’m town and if folks conclude that she loses nothing and if they scum read me, she gains an advantage and another mislynch possibility.

[jotheonah]

I am a chatterbox apparently

[Glooble]

Ok, I'm ready to vote: Space then. What was holding me back was mostly my strong townread on WCD and her relative trust in Space. If she's starting to have doubts, I can get behind this.


Still nervous about the ash situation though.

[WestCoastDidds]

Also, why was Swan NKed?  WCD - did you mention anything at all about targeting Swan for your upcoming qt to Space?

In case it gets lost in my big post, I would like you to answer this WCD.  This may just be wild conjecture that is completely wrong, but maybe not?

More thoughts...her town reads from that list constitute 2 of the nightkills so far. Haddock and Swan.

[Glooble]

Should I share my probably terrible plan and let town decide if its awful? It would require me to full claim.

[WestCoastDidds]

I am a chatterbox apparently

Ha! There are way more entries from me than you...and everyone knows I am the chatterbox!  The biggest difference seems to be that you are asking as many questions as I am. In the QT with Space she had lots of questions about my role, but than I had more of the questions later in the day.

[2.71828.....]

Should I share my probably terrible plan and let town decide if its awful? It would require me to full claim.

I mean, if we are lylo the more information the better I guess.  It is up to you.  You sound like you want to

[WestCoastDidds]

I am interested in the plan! But others would know better than me about the claiming stuff.

Also,  Vote: Space