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[RisingJaguar]

Lately, I've been staring at the popular buy page of mine (and a couple others) to see if I can learn a thing or two.  It's not that effective, but I ended up finding some very odd effects with/without in my searches.  I'd like to hear others irregular effects with/without numbers too!

For those that aren't familiar, this is the site http://councilroom.com/popular_buys
The statistic I'm referring to is how many standard deviations you outperform your expected win-rates for with and without (moreless?, I never read a definition but this is what I get from it).  Edit: The expected win-rates are generated by using the card's win-rate with/without combined with your overall win-rate.

Here is a link to my popular buy page.  http://councilroom.com/popular_buys?player=RisingJaguar
Hunting Party - Effect without 39.56.  I find it fascinating in the 10ish games I've avoided HP, I've won all of them.  I also very much consider this among the top $5 cards. 
Goons/Tunnel - -2.21/-2.08.  On the flip side, both of these have gain rates of 85ish%, so the off chance I avoid it I should be doing well right? Sadly not.
Scout - Effect with/without -1.46/-0.60.  Yeah I don't understand the worst card in the game. 

WanderingWinder's best Effects with, coming in at 9.21 is... Copper! Seems fitting as he's the main advocate of gaining coppers with his often Alt-VP cards rush. 

[jonts26]

I also recall WW saying he bought frivolous coppers whenever he was winning the game and had extra buys to pump up that stat.

Anyway my biggest effect with is Curse. Which I guess if I'm buying a curse I have a good reason. But the strangest thing to me is that my second highest effect with is .... Pearl Diver. Which I gain almost 50% of the time. I have no idea.

[RisingJaguar]

I also recall WW saying he bought frivolous coppers whenever he was winning the game and had extra buys to pump up that stat.

That's disappointing! I was hoping he was really on to something that nobody else caught on to.  I'm sure it is a part of that number though.

[ycz6]

My effect with Colony is -2.39. I wasn't sure if that was unusual, so I looked up a few others; it turns out WW's is -4.35.

[WanderingWinder]

I also recall WW saying he bought frivolous coppers whenever he was winning the game and had extra buys to pump up that stat.

That's disappointing! I was hoping he was really on to something that nobody else caught on to.  I'm sure it is a part of that number though.

Oh yeah, the victory coppers inflate that number big time. I'm sure it's pretty massive anyway, though, even if you could take that out somehow.
On the other hand, check out the #2 card there... +3.14 with workshop of all things. Well, I don't actually know what that's about but it's pretty significant. It's weird if you look at my great 'effect with' cards, it's really weak cards generally, and 'effect without' are strong cards.
Your description of effect with(out) is missing that that's compared to the community at large - i.e. it's how you do referenced to how the community does with(out) that card as well as your average win rate.
Check out chwhite's numbers on duchy if you want something really crazy

[RisingJaguar]

I just looked at chwhites numbers, all of his VP cards have ridiculous splits. 

[chwhite]

Yeah, the five cards I do best without are Estate, Duchy, Province, Colony... and Platinum.  I'm basically the poster child for "Who needs green cards anyway?"

Even most of the alterna-VP cards give me similarly negative Effects With and positive Effects Without.  The only exceptions are Great Hall (positive both directions), Tunnel (negative both directions), and the exception that proves the rule.  I speak, of course, of Vineyard. 

...

There was a period of time I had something like a -70 Effect With for Noble Brigand, as I had something like a 0-for-8 record with it in my deck.  Those days are sadly over.

[toaster]

It's weird if you look at my great 'effect with' cards, it's really weak cards generally, and 'effect without' are strong cards.

Actually, that's not surprising at all.  It's much more difficult to recognize when bad cards are actually useful or when good cards can be ignored than the reverse, so there's much more room to improve over the popular baseline in those cases.

Looking at my own stats, I have a win with effect of 3.44(!) with Stash...not sure quite where that's coming from.  My best effect without is Goons at 2.67...I only purchase it in 66% of games.

[RisingJaguar]

It's weird if you look at my great 'effect with' cards, it's really weak cards generally, and 'effect without' are strong cards.

Actually, that's not surprising at all.  It's much more difficult to recognize when bad cards are actually useful or when good cards can be ignored than the reverse, so there's much more room to improve over the popular baseline in those cases.

I think you have this backwards, WW is saying he's got good effects with for bad cards (recognizing when to play bad cards) and vice-versa (when not to play good cards).  I have a feeling this is what you meant and jumbled up. 

[O]

I have a 26.09 effect without ambassador. I have no explanation.

[toaster]

It's weird if you look at my great 'effect with' cards, it's really weak cards generally, and 'effect without' are strong cards.

Actually, that's not surprising at all.  It's much more difficult to recognize when bad cards are actually useful or when good cards can be ignored than the reverse, so there's much more room to improve over the popular baseline in those cases.

I think you have this backwards, WW is saying he's got good effects with for bad cards (recognizing when to play bad cards) and vice-versa (when not to play good cards).  I have a feeling this is what you meant and jumbled up.

No, that's exactly what I said.  It's difficult to recognize when bad cards are good and good cards are bad, sp it's not surprising that WW's best "effect with" numbers are for bad cards (and "effect without" are for good cards), because there's a larger margin available to improve over the baseline in those cases.

[chwhite]

I have a 26.09 effect without ambassador. I have no explanation.

Those sorts of numbers happen if you're in a divide-by-zero situation, i.e. you've won every game where you've declined to buy Ambassador.  Looking at your stats, you've played 62 games with it and bought it nearly 97% of the time... so 2-0 when you skip it, I guess?

[^_^_^_^]

my top 10 effect with:
1. Jester (2.73/1.76) (and this is even after mistaking it's effect for Swindler in a previous post)
2. Diadem (2.55/0.65) (Wait... what happened to Trusty Steed?)
3. IGG (2.36/-0.27) (Gotta love them IGG rushing games)
5. Bank (1.84/-1.29) (I am a greedy little three-faced smiley)
6. Trading Post (1.77/0.05) (They make the best soda at the Trading Post! It even looks like Silver!)
7. Noble Brigand (1.65 /0.54 ) (Wait... say what now??!?!?)
8. Counting House (1.62/1.25) (And they say you are inefficient at counting... HA! Look at ya NOW!)
9. Oracle (1.61/-0.83) (I've learned when to use this card. It is way better than you think!)
10. Crossroads (1.59/0.86) (Not sure how this got this high o.o)
My 15th best with is Pirate Ship....

Ambassador (-0.93/-0.84) (But I just won a ton of games with this card yesterday! Why me?!?!)

10 best effects without overlap a bit... if you want statistics go above or go to councilroom yourself. I'm getting tired of copying that. Well, I went to 13th because I was perplexed by Peddler.

Minion (Not really a good card. Silver with +1 action for $5 that may also end up being drawn by say, a Wharf played during the same turn and then makes you wish you got a silver...)
Hoard (I've often had times that I thought this would just slow me down)
Hunting Party (Easy to spot times it will work, just as easy for me to spot times it won't)
Possession (Only Potion card? Yeah no thanks, let my opponent facepalm 3-6 times)
Jester (Overlap.... interesting.)
Courtyard (Same as above o.o)
Caravan (They aren't cool enough)
Stables (Too stinky!)
Princess (You know that lonely geek in the corner of the room with his laptop? Yeah, that's me.)
Menagerie (Yes, it is actually a card you don't always want!)
Farmland (Farming is too slow... it is better to just have a...)
Stash (Not sure why this got on this list o.O)
Peddler... (Say WHAT now?!?!?)

I am basically a mix of cards

[Robz888]

I am -42 for effect without Goons.

I ALWAYS veto Goons.

[blueblimp]

2. Diadem (2.55/0.65) (Wait... what happened to Trusty Steed?)

Diadem is high up for me too. I think I know why: most games, I'm going to take any of the other prizes over Diadem. (I guess I might take Diadem over Princess if I'm short on actions.) Also, if I'm at all in danger of losing the game, I'm usually going to take a Duchy instead. So if I take a Diadem, that's usually a sign that I've already got a bunch of other prizes and am comfortably in the lead.

[WanderingWinder]

So the thing with diadem for me really is, I almost never take it except... I take it quite often when it instantly gets me the cash I need to buy out a game-ending pile with a win (usually provinces). Which makes my win rate with it quite massive, the highest of any card. The win rate without is decently high though, so we can see that it's not really a better card than the other prizes.

[O]

I'm sure its been discussed to death before but here would be my rankings:

1)Followers: Best 1st choice roughly 50% of time
2)Trusty Steed: In games where there's already been cursing or you desperately need +Actions, best 1st choice 30%
3)Princess: in games where you desperately need +buy, best first choice 8%
4)Diadem: when you need a silver in hand... best first choice .5% of time
5)Bag of gold.. When you somehow connected tournament and province while having an incredibly bad deck full of curses. Best first choice 1% of time (but below diadem because I'll get diadem more frequently before BOG because I need +2-+3$ this turn for a province.

Duchy is a best first choice roughly 10% of the time (its really not that often that followers +2VP swing + discard attack + 2 cards isn't better)

[^_^_^_^]

I'm sure its been discussed to death before but here would be my rankings:

1)Followers: Best 1st choice roughly 50% of time
2)Trusty Steed: In games where there's already been cursing or you desperately need +Actions, best 1st choice 30%
3)Princess: in games where you desperately need +buy, best first choice 8%
4)Diadem: when you need a silver in hand... best first choice .5% of time
5)Bag of gold.. When you somehow connected tournament and province while having an incredibly bad deck full of curses. Best first choice 1% of time (but below diadem because I'll get diadem more frequently before BOG because I need +2-+3$ this turn for a province.

Duchy is a best first choice roughly 10% of the time (its really not that often that followers +2VP swing + discard attack + 2 cards isn't better)

It isn't better if you draw 2 curses, the curses are out, you are still relatively early in the game(just started the provinces, and your opponent revealed 2 Horse traders while having a village and 2 estates being his other cards in hand. Yeah, thats right.