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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Game Over! Town wins!)  (Read 147074 times)

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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1050 on: January 15, 2019, 10:24:22 am »

I want to wait till UoS comes
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1051 on: January 15, 2019, 05:18:37 pm »

Hi guys, saw the kill, haven't read anything in between then and now, just checking in.

That's a weird enough kill it warrants a complete reread, which I absolutely do not have time for today.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1052 on: January 15, 2019, 05:28:15 pm »

Okay, I've read everything at a skim, I stand by my wanting to reread the whole game tomorrow.

My gut right now says Jimmm but we have plenty of time and I have no intention of voting until I reread it all. Either tomorrow or the next day, and frankly I need to reread that blitz game where Jimmm was scum too.

But I feel like either scum should have either killed me or killed Jimmm/LaLight there and hoped I vote momsalon.
My gut says that weird kill is more likely to come from Jimmm, it's someone worried about town me and town mcmc both left alive in LYLO but wanting to kill mcmc more than me.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1053 on: January 15, 2019, 05:30:38 pm »

And as long as we're in what-I'd-have-done-as-scum territory, obviously scum!me should have killed Jimmm.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1054 on: January 15, 2019, 05:32:42 pm »

That's a weird enough kill it warrants a complete reread, which I absolutely do not have time for today.

Who were you expecting to be killed?
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1055 on: January 15, 2019, 05:34:00 pm »

Never mind.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1056 on: January 15, 2019, 08:55:43 pm »

My gut right now says Jimmm

Why?

I'm actually amazed that both of you have indicated me as their lynch of choice. Which means one of you legitimately thinks the scum team was Dylan/joth/me, and the other thinks I'm their best mislynch opportunity.

The scum me narrative is such an epic conspiracy theory. The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter. It just doesn't happen. Dylan didn't claim a Cop result on me to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. joth didn't agree with him and push for my lynch and vice versa to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. There is no plausible amount of Towncred that would be worth giving up 2/3 of the team for.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1057 on: January 16, 2019, 03:22:05 am »

frankly I need to reread that blitz game where Jimmm was scum too.

My most favorite scum!Jimmmmm game is RMM7, absolutely spectacular. Not sure though, how good of an example this one is
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1058 on: January 16, 2019, 03:23:29 am »

My gut right now says Jimmm

Why?

I'm actually amazed that both of you have indicated me as their lynch of choice. Which means one of you legitimately thinks the scum team was Dylan/joth/me, and the other thinks I'm their best mislynch opportunity.

The scum me narrative is such an epic conspiracy theory. The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter. It just doesn't happen. Dylan didn't claim a Cop result on me to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. joth didn't agree with him and push for my lynch and vice versa to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. There is no plausible amount of Towncred that would be worth giving up 2/3 of the team for.

I am thinking about it. I mean winning is a goal, not staying alive as long as you can, so this plan works in a case you describing.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1059 on: January 16, 2019, 06:51:24 am »

frankly I need to reread that blitz game where Jimmm was scum too.

My most favorite scum!Jimmmmm game is RMM7, absolutely spectacular. Not sure though, how good of an example this one is

LOTR, right? The two LOTR games were probably my favourite ever.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1060 on: January 16, 2019, 06:52:15 am »

frankly I need to reread that blitz game where Jimmm was scum too.

My most favorite scum!Jimmmmm game is RMM7, absolutely spectacular. Not sure though, how good of an example this one is

LOTR, right? The two LOTR games were probably my favourite ever.

yeah. The only ones I reread more than once
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1061 on: January 16, 2019, 06:55:06 am »

My gut right now says Jimmm

Why?

I'm actually amazed that both of you have indicated me as their lynch of choice. Which means one of you legitimately thinks the scum team was Dylan/joth/me, and the other thinks I'm their best mislynch opportunity.

The scum me narrative is such an epic conspiracy theory. The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter. It just doesn't happen. Dylan didn't claim a Cop result on me to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. joth didn't agree with him and push for my lynch and vice versa to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. There is no plausible amount of Towncred that would be worth giving up 2/3 of the team for.

I am thinking about it. I mean winning is a goal, not staying alive as long as you can, so this plan works in a case you describing.

I'm having trouble parsing the last part of your sentence. Regardless, scum is in a heck of a lot worse position now than they were before Dylan claimed. If I'm scum then that change in position was orchestrated by scum to a very large and very unnecessary degree. Scum just doesn't throw that hard.
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1062 on: January 16, 2019, 07:14:01 am »

My gut right now says Jimmm

Why?

I'm actually amazed that both of you have indicated me as their lynch of choice. Which means one of you legitimately thinks the scum team was Dylan/joth/me, and the other thinks I'm their best mislynch opportunity.

The scum me narrative is such an epic conspiracy theory. The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter. It just doesn't happen. Dylan didn't claim a Cop result on me to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. joth didn't agree with him and push for my lynch and vice versa to ensure scum gets lynched for Towncred, he did it to try to win the game for scum on that Day. There is no plausible amount of Towncred that would be worth giving up 2/3 of the team for.

I am thinking about it. I mean winning is a goal, not staying alive as long as you can, so this plan works in a case you describing.

I'm having trouble parsing the last part of your sentence. Regardless, scum is in a heck of a lot worse position now than they were before Dylan claimed. If I'm scum then that change in position was orchestrated by scum to a very large and very unnecessary degree. Scum just doesn't throw that hard.

This makes sense and it may be WIFOM as well.

Why would UoS kill mcmc?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1063 on: January 16, 2019, 07:54:11 am »

This makes sense and it may be WIFOM as well.

The "WIFOM" argument would be that we (Dylan, joth and myself) thought that I would get enough Towncred that it would be worth giving up two of our own players, which is a reeeeally big stretch.

Quote
Why would UoS kill mcmc?

The only reason I can think of is because I listed you as the third scum.
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1064 on: January 16, 2019, 08:03:11 am »

ok. Anyway I am planning on rereading from different PoV and wait till UoS rereads full game as well
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1065 on: January 16, 2019, 11:51:03 am »

Regarding Dylan's claim, the whole scum motivation for it, which faust was getting at back when he was alive I think, is Dylan is getting heat, correctly directs us to lynch scum!Jimmmmmmm, and then coasts on the towncred through LYLO. This plan counts more on the next day LYLO and not Joth getting lynched, which happens because we didn't believe Dylan's claim.

Also honestly both Dylan AND Joth were super-likely lynches on the days they were lynched, scum isn't unlikely to bus in that environment, basically everyone other than mcmc wanted to lynch Joth as I remember it.

I don't like how hard Jimmmmm is pushing this narrative where he deserves so much towncred because those scum lynches were going to be so hard to get to happen, doesn't make that much sense and reads very scummy to me. Scum didn't give up 2/3 of their team for towncred, Joth pretty clearly fumbled his bus on Dylan and then came across super scummy Yesterday after several days of a bunch of people finding him suspicious and not lynching him.

Also also, shouldn't Jimmmmm be pushing hard for scum!LaLight if he thinks he deserves so much credit for being on-wagon?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1066 on: January 16, 2019, 11:52:26 am »

Anyway, I'm going to start a reread now, looking for evidence of scum LaLight and town Jimmm and see how much doubt I have when I try to prove the opposite.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1067 on: January 16, 2019, 12:12:00 pm »

So this is a very interesting section of the game in retrospect:
Nice to meet you joth! I've read all the games on this forum, so I know you, but you don't know me. glad to have you back!
How do you know that joth didn't also read all games on this forum?

Technically I haven't said that. Just that he doesn't know me
But you implied that your having read his games makes it so that you know him, so does it not follow that him hypothetically having read all of your games would make him know you?

Here's what I'm more interested. LaLight, if you've read all the games, you should be a very good scum hunter. Who's playing off-meta so far?

Compare to
vote: josh for asking this question too early. Smells like scared scum.

what... would scum!me be scared of at this point? Robz's obvious joke vote?

I don't think it's ever too early to start scumhunting and asking people for reads. RVS is boring.

Also, I think RVS is over? So far we have:

* ashersky's (I assume not totally serious) suggestion that Lalight and I are on a scum team together
* faust's vote on ashersky for FoSing us and not voting for us
* Jimmmmmm's vote on ashersky because he likes wagons
* your (silverspawn's) unexplained jumping on the ashersky wagon
* faust's unexplained vote for Jimmmmmm
* my joke vote for Robz
* Robz's joke (?) vote for me
* your (silverspawn's) vote for me for asking Lalight for a read before doing any scumhunting myself

That's a lot of real action, even ignoring some jokey votes!

The things on that list I find scummy so far:
- Jimmmm's ashersky vote
- silverspawn's ashersky vote

I actually don't mind silverspawn's vote for me, even though it's wrong and dumb. It's based on something, whereas Jimmmm's vote on ashersky is mindless wagonning is not. So I think I'll join faust in

vote: Jimmmmm
I'd argue that liking early wagons is indeed pro-town and not based-on-nothing or scum-indicative.

Can you (and Jimmmm I guess) explain this perspective?

I see Jimmm's action there (his only action in the game so far) and I see (potentially) scum wanting to look like they're participating without actually contributing or drawing too much attention, with the added bonus of possibly getting a lynch going ASAP. Getting on a wagon early is good for scum, since the FoS tends to fall on the late joiners and the hammerer.

But I'd love to hear the "wagons are protown" argument.

Also, I apologize if I'm rehashing old settled issues here. It's been a long time and I've probably forgotten a lot.
An RVS vote can be based on a joke, it can be based on a very flimsy case, or, apparently, it can be based on the idea that all wagons are good, which I still don't completely get, but it's pretty clear to me that it's a popular and uncontroversial opinion, so I guess I have to conclude it's not inherently scummy (unless Jim, silver, and Umbradge are all scum together). Still I'm leaving my vote where it is until Jimmmmm shows up and responds to this whole conversation.

Anyway, despite the name, I don't think very many RVS votes are truly random.
Sorry for the wallpost that's mostly for my own reference.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1068 on: January 16, 2019, 12:24:09 pm »

To get the game going. But if you talk about it it ruins it.

See, this makes no sense to me. If a wagon is to be any use at all, it's so that it can be analyzed. To analyze a wagon usefully, you have to know who got on it for what reasons, so you can determine who's scum. So even accepting that early wagons are useful, I would think that a wagon that you don't discuss -- or that discussion would "ruin" -- would completely negate that usefulness.

Also, I should officially say now that the game is going: I will be V/LA from December 20th to December 29th, on my honeymoon in Germany. There may be a few times I can check in, but the priority has to be quality time with the wife! Hopefully, based on the schedule, some portion of that time will be night, which should mitigate the impact.

Maybe if you hear my reasoning, you'll change your mind.

LaLight is said to have read every scum game. This is very unusual. joth has been absent for a while and is now coming back. It's easy to see how he could be nervous about someone knowing his meta, and I think "come on, tell me about what makes me scummy" is a very plausible thing for a scum player to do. On the other hand, the town motivation makes less sense, because there's no way LaLight has any solid read on anyone so far.


I didn't ask him for solid reads. I asked him if anyone was playing off-meta so far. Which I think is a reasonable thing to ask someone who has read all the games. I absolutely think people can conform to or deviate from their meta in just a few posts. To give a completely hypothetical example, suppose faust's town meta was that he normally wrote long paragraphs explaining each vote. His vote for Jimmmmm with no explanation would then be off-meta.

Speaking of LaLight, they never really answered that question. And even if there wasn't enough info to answer it then, I suspect there is enough to answer it now.

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1069 on: January 16, 2019, 01:08:49 pm »

The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter.

Jimmm wasn't on Joth, and was the first vote on Dylan after Dylan claimed a cop guilty on him, it's not like he could unvote there. So the only useful argument is that scum!Joth wouldn't bus Dylan, and clearly that happened (and mcmc would have hammered if Joth didn't.)
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1070 on: January 16, 2019, 02:10:35 pm »

This is the biggest thing making me hesitate on Jimmm

Vote Count 1.7

DatSwan (4): Dylan32, Galzria, jotheonah, Robz888
Dylan32 (2): UmbrageOfSnow, Jimmmmm
silverspawn (2): ashersky, mcmcsalot
mcmcsalot (1): LaLight
Jimmmmm (1): silverspawn
Galzria (2): faust, DatSwan

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
D1 ends at 11am Czech time (5am Forum Time) on Thursday 20th December. That's in a little under 13.5 hours.

The Jimmmmm lynch seems eminently viable. Maybe too viable.

The people that have voted Jimmm, and in order are:

Faust (57)
Joth (61)
Joth (224) (intent at 215, bad formatting)
Silver (243)
Swan (275)
Robz (313)

And then I just said that I would to get a lynch.

I believe the highest his wagon has been is 3.

So that's six players. Assuming they're all still feeling it, we would need to convince one of UoS, LaLight,  Dylan, mcmc, and ashersky to go along.

So yeah. Super doable.

I was going to say that this should worry us because easy lynches are town lynches, but I talked myself out of it. I'm in. And I'm about to drop off availability-wise so I'll move my vote now.

vote: Jimmmmm
I'll move back to vote: DatSwan for a few more hours, Galz. For you. I really need to go now for irl stuff, but I'll probably check back in around 7 or 8 pm forum time. Hopefully ... things of some kind will happen.
Just reread Jimmmmm. I could move, and would like that more than some of the other options that have been mentioned, but would rather stay on DatSwan.

I'll be off and on this evening, but won't be on at all in the morning.

ppe 1

And after Swan's claim both Dylan and Joth move to Jimmmm

No lynch would be horrible and I have to leave now until deadline. My problem with the case on jimm is he’s playing like jimm plays. Ugh there is no non jimm or galz thing that’s happening. Im going to vote: galz so him and jimm are at l-2 and I trust people to get one through.

Proposition for you: vote for Jimmmmm instead. Why get two people to L-2 when you could get one person to L-1? Especially after I put all that work into that lovely case for you.
But the real case is just ... reread him. There's almost no useful contributions, but a lot of votes and just enough fluff and theory talk to not be a lurker. I feel like it's a textbook execution of a particular way of playing scum.

This is not a case. I can just easily say it's a textbook execution of a particular way of playing Town.

If you want to lynch me I probably won't fight too hard against it. I'm a fine Day 1 lynch - not a great "catch scum" lynch but a fine "progress the game" lynch. Much better than lynching Swan or forcing the partner to claim.

But LaLight also gets on Jimmm when he comes back, so either 2 scum are bussing another or all 3 scum are on the same town wagon
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1071 on: January 16, 2019, 02:31:31 pm »

Vote Count 1.10

silverspawn (1): ashersky
Jimmmmm (6): silverspawn, Galzria, Robz888, Dylan32, jotheonah, LaLight
Galzria (5): faust, DatSwan, Jimmmmm, UmbrageOfSnow, mcmcsalot

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
D1 ends in ~17 minutes.

... I can't believe this is still happening.

Is there any situation where DatSwan is this stubborn unless he's scum that doesn't want to bus? That's the main thing keeping me from switching to get a lynch through. (Sorry Galz)
I mean, if DatSwan and Jimmmmm ARE scum partners (with someone who's already asleep and on the Galz wagon) and Swan claimed Mason with the intention of going with the scumbuddy claims Mason partner in a pinch gambit, and the gambit went horribly wrong, it would look something like this? But then why wouldn't Jimmmmm have done his part and claimed other Mason ages ago?

PPE: He is sooooooo scum but vote: Galzria. NL is bad. If we ARE in a Jimmmmm and DatSwan are scumbuddies situation, we'll be able to sort it out tomorrow.
Reading how the day went after I hit the wall and went to bed, even when you ignore the fact Galz was actually the cop, the Jimmmmm wagon feels townier just by nature of the way it stalled out and noone would hammer. If any scum were on Galz or off either wagon, it was close enough to the deadline to where hammering for the sake of making sure a lynch went through would have been pretty easy and probably at least a few town points, because scum would have been totally ok with a no lynch. If Jimmmmm is actually scum, faust and Swan would be super scummy for stubbornly refusing to switch, even when there was no guarantee someone else was going to be coming online to actually get a lynch through.  Swan had included Jimmmmm in his top 3 lynch choices behind Galz and along with Robz, but then the way he refuses to actually switch to Jimmmmm when the chips were down feels more like trying to protect a scum partner that you weren't planning on being the one that would co-claim masons with you later. Distance yourself to not be tied together by buddying while mason claiming the other partner, but then not wanting to actually hammer that partner.

I think I am settled on 99% believing DS and faust are Masons.
for some reasons I can't put my finger on Joth. He reads townie, but I don't know, can't feel him

(Before the LL quotes)
Sorry all. Should have time to post more soon.

Would lynch: Dylan, joth.
Would not lynch: Swan, faust, ss.

PPE: Nice OMGUS Jim.
PPE: Nice OMGUS Jim.

That's a bit silly.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1072 on: January 16, 2019, 02:38:42 pm »

Scum decided to NK Ash rather than Swan, so they went into D2 with the plan of trying to get one of the Masons lynched.

Neither LL or Jim want to lynch Swan, so either way they decided to not tie themselves together in universally opposing the masons, but LL states that a lot more strongly. Does scum want to strongly defend the masons like LL does? I think Jimm's mason belief is the scummier one.

Is Joth more trying to discredit Jimm or more trying to distance? Dose scum!LL chainsaw defend Dylan like this?

I am null on Dylan, and I don't like the two votes on him. Let's sheep faust, vote: silverspawn

I still find this unvote weird:
I don't have much time tonight but I reread Dylan and my reasons for voting for him are really only from very early in the game. I will Unvote for now and hopefully have time to look at joth tomorrow.

I'm not doing a good job talking myself out of Jimm
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)
« Reply #1073 on: January 16, 2019, 02:39:28 pm »

Okay, I'm stopping here for now, only going to have mobile access for a few hours (and not even my own).
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #1074 on: January 16, 2019, 05:41:00 pm »

The thing about scum lynches is that they are very difficult. Scum will do everything they can to avoid them. There is no way a Dylan/joth/me team gives the Town two correct lynches on a silver platter.

Jimmm wasn't on Joth, and was the first vote on Dylan after Dylan claimed a cop guilty on him, it's not like he could unvote there. So the only useful argument is that scum!Joth wouldn't bus Dylan, and clearly that happened (and mcmc would have hammered if Joth didn't.)

I wasn't on joth because I wasn't sure about ending the Day so soon. I made it extremely clear that I thought he was scum:

Would lynch: Dylan, joth.

joth still seems the most likely partner. I'm picking LaLight as the third. No lynch is still probably best though.

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

I got copped as scum. You know this how?

Dylan, why didn't you use your 1-shot right away -- why wait until last night?

I think you know the answer - you decided to wait until mylo to try to finish the game off with this claim.

Question to Dylan and Jimmmmm: You know one scum. Can you try to figure out who you think their partners are? Rereads would be ideal.

Prereread joth seems obvious. LaLight a likely third. I should get some rereads done tomorrow.

2) DatSwan and faust are masons. Dylan is scum. In this case, we need to explain why scum didn't kill the masons and why they are risking a proactive cop claim when they are doing pretty well without one.

Again, we don't need to explain scum's behaviour at all. The fact that you're arguing this is the explanation. Do someone kind of crazy late enough in the game that you can likely get away with it => argue that it's so crazy that scum would never do it => win the game.

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As to number one, the only thing that makes any sense is that they're doing this all to frame Swan and faust.

No, you're doing it to frame me. Obviously. One more mislynch is probably all you need, so this is how you're attempting to get it.

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But that's almost as insane a scum play as claiming masons in the first place. Isn't it? Doesn't scum just kill the claimed mason right away night 1, instead of killing ashersky?

Not if you want to make this argument.

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3) DatSwan and faust are scum, Dylan is their partner. This is a possibility we need to consider. The scum have been doing very well with their mason claim, and now need only one more mislynch to win the game. They also know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim. So they decide to try a hail mary. If it works, they win. If Dylan gets lynched, hey faust and Swan get to keep on being "IC"s into the end game.

This is false and a scumslip. If Swan, faust and Dylan are the scum team, then the real UB is still out there, and UB would be an entirely unsafe fakeclaim. But you know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim and so messed up your story here.

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Final note, my gut here is to believe Dylan and not Jimmmm, although the tiny math chance gives me pause. Gut read, Jimmmmm is acting right now exactly like scum!Jimmmm from scenario 1 would act. He's acting like he had prepared for this possibility in advance. Look how quick he was with the math post.

I posted #754 when I saw Dylan's claim and #764 32 minutes later. Plenty of time to grab some paper, come up with a figure of 97.3%, realise that 4 Ms were impossible, change it to 99%, and do my best to make the post clear and concise.

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So if we're in scenario 1, for instance, that means mcmc, Umbrage, and Lalight need to show up soon and be active and we all need to agree to lynch Jimmmmm or a Mason claimant.

You'd like that wouldn't you?

PPE 6

What does that have to do with math? You didn't forget anything. You assumed that UB was a safe fakeclaim. What possible reason could you have for assuming that other than that "UB is a safe fakeclaim" was in your mind already?

Jimmm - who is your top skum pick?

joth

I don't really see a scenario in which I would agree to keep joth alive to the end. Primarily due to the way he responded to Dylan's claim. Scum obviously discussed the claim the night before and expected it to work.

I'm happy to just hammer if you want.

I'll let mcmc say what he wants to before hammering.
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