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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 6)  (Read 6250 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #950 on: January 09, 2019, 10:50:51 pm »

I'm rereading now, and it seems like there's a lot of confirmation bias in Swan's case against me. Like, a lot. He's been scumreading me from day 1 and I've been attacking him a fair bit. The same goes for Jimmmm.

But now I'm not getting a fair shake because they've decided I'm scum so everything I do becomes evidence of my scumminess. So when I messed up analyzing the setup yesterday it was a scumslip, but when Snow did exactly the same thing today he was obv!town. When I try to make a case based on "scum would never do that" I'm told that I'm just WIFOMing, but IC DatSwan gets to say

Stop wasting time analyzing snow. Literally zero reason to lie in their spot. They were easily the towniest player alive except for me. If they were skum they could of just claimed VT and ridden it out.

... which is the same thing.

Swan decided I was scum a long time ago and now it's all he can see. Which would be fine if we weren't at MyLo. But now he is going to lead this town off a cliff as IC.

I don't know who the other two scum are -- I'm rereading right now looking for leads -- but I do know it's not me. And I would urge everyone to seriously consider that I might be town, just for a minute. I really don't want us to lose the game this way.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #951 on: January 09, 2019, 10:52:47 pm »

To quote faust:

Usually the best way to tell if someone is town is if they really wind you up because they are wrong about everything.

I have been wrong about a lot of things this game. But I am town.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #952 on: January 09, 2019, 10:56:39 pm »

Honestly, now that I'm thinking about it/rereading, scum has probably been keeping me alive on purpose because of my bad reads. They knew that it would be easy to convince the masonICs to lynch me.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #953 on: January 09, 2019, 11:10:26 pm »

My day 1 endgame makes zero sense as scum. Scum would have been fine with a no lynch, right? But I pushed against a no lynch really hard, and then hammered someone who had a townread on. Assuming you don't think Jimmmmm was my partner, how does that hammer make sense? There's no downside to waiting. Either a Jimmmmm lynch (someone who had already expressed a strong scumread on me and another on Dylan and would have been a serious threat) happens, or a no lynch happens.

You know who's day 1 endgame does match what scum would do?

And then why kill ashersky? I definitely would have killed Jim if I were scum with Dylan, for the reasons I just laid out.

And then last night I hammered Dylan. Who was scum. That's more neutral because I can easily see scum bussing there, but I think they would do it a little more artfully then my hammer.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #954 on: January 09, 2019, 11:12:05 pm »

Snow, on the other hand, does exactly what I would expect scum to do at the end of day 1 if Jim and Galz were both town. He goes to bed early and stays out of it. lalight is also nowhere to be found.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #955 on: January 09, 2019, 11:16:30 pm »

Joth - What about McMc?
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #956 on: January 09, 2019, 11:21:48 pm »

Mcmc also did what scum would do.

No lynch would be horrible and I have to leave now until deadline. My problem with the case on jimm is heís playing like jimm plays. Ugh there is no non jimm or galz thing thatís happening. Im going to vote: galz so him and jimm are at l-2 and I trust people to get one through.

Note especially the "Ugh there is no non jimm or galz thing thatís happening".
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #957 on: January 09, 2019, 11:22:23 pm »

I'm rereading now, and it seems like there's a lot of confirmation bias in Swan's case against me. Like, a lot. He's been scumreading me from day 1 and I've been attacking him a fair bit. The same goes for Jimmmm.

But now I'm not getting a fair shake because they've decided I'm scum so everything I do becomes evidence of my scumminess. So when I messed up analyzing the setup yesterday it was a scumslip, but when Snow did exactly the same thing today he was obv!town. When I try to make a case based on "scum would never do that" I'm told that I'm just WIFOMing, but IC DatSwan gets to say

Stop wasting time analyzing snow. Literally zero reason to lie in their spot. They were easily the towniest player alive except for me. If they were skum they could of just claimed VT and ridden it out.

... which is the same thing.

Swan decided I was scum a long time ago and now it's all he can see. Which would be fine if we weren't at MyLo. But now he is going to lead this town off a cliff as IC.

I don't know who the other two scum are -- I'm rereading right now looking for leads -- but I do know it's not me. And I would urge everyone to seriously consider that I might be town, just for a minute. I really don't want us to lose the game this way.

I did not decide you were skum a long time ago fwiw. You were my number s2 town read day 1 and a bit into day 2. I actually was hardset on Snow until end of day 2.

Also, i really really believe that the concept of lynching Jimm today is just counter productive (for previously stated reasons). And i also think it is way more likely we find skum outside of snow.... but just cuz i am IC doesnít mean you have to listen to me.... it still means you have to get 4 people to vote the same  person tho... so if i am not going snow or Jimm... and they ainít gonna vote for themselves... i would suggest you look elsewhere for a counter case.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #958 on: January 09, 2019, 11:25:10 pm »

Mcmc also did what scum would do.

No lynch would be horrible and I have to leave now until deadline. My problem with the case on jimm is heís playing like jimm plays. Ugh there is no non jimm or galz thing thatís happening. Im going to vote: galz so him and jimm are at l-2 and I trust people to get one through.

Note especially the "Ugh there is no non jimm or galz thing thatís happening".

I noted this in summary as well. Agreed for skum points vs McMc and in a off world i guess Jimm as well
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #959 on: January 09, 2019, 11:31:15 pm »

Now that I re-read it seems like Robz has sort of been going out of his way to buddy and sheep me all game. Which is probably why I've had such a town read on him. I just totally fell for it.

I was only a mediocre player, recordwise, before I left, and now I'm hella rusty, so I feel like town!Robz sheeping me left and right like this doesn't make a lot of sense. But maybe scum!robz figured since he was the one who brought me into the game it would be easy to buddy me and have a permanent town ally. There's evidence of him doing the same thing in subtler ways with Mcmc ("we IC'd each other"), faust ("day 1 pass"), and Galzria.

My memory is that part of Robz's meta is mixing up his scum strategies so that he doesn't have an easily readable meta. And I can see him saying "this game, I'm going to try buddying".

I sort of love this theory, but I also think maybe I'm working too hard to make up a narrative. But what the heck, let's try vote: Robz

This is another thing that I think is a pretty strong case for me being town. If I were scum and I had a townie following every vote I made, why on earth would I draw attention to it and start a wagon on that townie? I would have been working hard to keep Robz alive! Imagine how much better this day would be going for me if Jimmm and Swan were dead and Robz and Galz were alive. Yet I apparently hammered Galz, threw a good deal of fuel on Robz's lynch, and failed to NK Dylan or Swan despite having lots of opportunities.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #960 on: January 09, 2019, 11:32:03 pm »

I'm rereading now, and it seems like there's a lot of confirmation bias in Swan's case against me. Like, a lot. He's been scumreading me from day 1 and I've been attacking him a fair bit. The same goes for Jimmmm.

But now I'm not getting a fair shake because they've decided I'm scum so everything I do becomes evidence of my scumminess. So when I messed up analyzing the setup yesterday it was a scumslip, but when Snow did exactly the same thing today he was obv!town. When I try to make a case based on "scum would never do that" I'm told that I'm just WIFOMing, but IC DatSwan gets to say

Stop wasting time analyzing snow. Literally zero reason to lie in their spot. They were easily the towniest player alive except for me. If they were skum they could of just claimed VT and ridden it out.

... which is the same thing.

Swan decided I was scum a long time ago and now it's all he can see. Which would be fine if we weren't at MyLo. But now he is going to lead this town off a cliff as IC.

I don't know who the other two scum are -- I'm rereading right now looking for leads -- but I do know it's not me. And I would urge everyone to seriously consider that I might be town, just for a minute. I really don't want us to lose the game this way.

I did not decide you were skum a long time ago fwiw. You were my number s2 town read day 1 and a bit into day 2. I actually was hardset on Snow until end of day 2.

Also, i really really believe that the concept of lynching Jimm today is just counter productive (for previously stated reasons). And i also think it is way more likely we find skum outside of snow.... but just cuz i am IC doesnít mean you have to listen to me.... it still means you have to get 4 people to vote the same  person tho... so if i am not going snow or Jimm... and they ainít gonna vote for themselves... i would suggest you look elsewhere for a counter case.

I'm working on it. I have another hour until my flight leaves...
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #961 on: January 09, 2019, 11:32:24 pm »

I keep getting distracted by how obviously townie I am.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #962 on: January 09, 2019, 11:38:27 pm »

I'll move back to vote: DatSwan for a few more hours, Galz. For you. I really need to go now for irl stuff, but I'll probably check back in around 7 or 8 pm forum time. Hopefully ... things of some kind will happen.

The total and complete lack of interest in Dylan has me itching to lynch Dylan more and more.

That said, I'd prefer DerSwan to Jimmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm, so

Vote: DatSwan
L-2

Actually vote: datswan L-1

Claim time.

The last three votes on the Swan wagon day 1 are worth noting. Highly likely there's scum among them. Mcmc seems a little eager to get a claim. Snow says Dylan is scummy but then votes for Swan. My vote seems null, but then I'm me so I'm biased.

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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #963 on: January 09, 2019, 11:52:35 pm »

Alright, I'm not as far along on this as I had hoped to be but I have to go to my gate.

halfway-ish through a reread, I actually agree with Swan that Snow seems pretty towny. Jim reads scummy to me, but I agree that he's a bad lynch today given everything.

So for me that leaves lalight and mcmc. And what I will say is, neither of them have given me a strong reason to believe they're town. Lalight has been pushing for a mcmc lynch all game, but its never been realistically on the table, which seems like a great place to be with your partner.

I think there's a reasonably good chance they're our scum team, and I think mcmc is currently the scummier read of the two, based on the above posts.

vote:mcmcsalot

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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #964 on: January 09, 2019, 11:54:22 pm »

vote: mcmc

for formatting

I'll be back online in like 12 hours. Don't hammer me while I'm gone please.

I mean, ideally don't hammer me at all, but if you do don't let me miss it.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #965 on: January 10, 2019, 12:55:36 am »

mcmc, LL, UoS: What was your first instinct/reaction to Dylan's claim?
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #966 on: January 10, 2019, 04:39:38 am »

Guuuuyyyysssss
Giiiirrllllsssss
Peopppplleeeeeesssss

Where is everyone?
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #967 on: January 10, 2019, 04:48:41 am »

mcmc, LL, UoS: What was your first instinct/reaction to Dylan's claim?

Well, my initial reaction was I believed it but then nothing really came together so I didn't in the end
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #968 on: January 10, 2019, 04:49:16 am »

when you'll see mcmc/joth team you'll be like "LaLight told us but we were not listening!"

I am all in for voting joth
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #969 on: January 10, 2019, 04:50:39 am »

vote: mcmc

for formatting

I'll be back online in like 12 hours. Don't hammer me while I'm gone please.

I mean, ideally don't hammer me at all, but if you do don't let me miss it.

this is just a last minute bussing
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #970 on: January 10, 2019, 04:51:13 am »

Won't you claim your action?

Why would I ever do that?

this can semiIC someone
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #971 on: January 10, 2019, 06:23:58 am »

Won't you claim your action?

Why would I ever do that?

this can semiIC someone

Where are you this game?
Run that one back scenario style and think about how that doesnít make sense.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #972 on: January 10, 2019, 06:31:06 am »

mcmc, LL, UoS: What was your first instinct/reaction to Dylan's claim?

Well, my initial reaction was I believed it but then nothing really came together so I didn't in the end

But all you did was vote no vote. You never expressed any interest in either Dylan or Jimm. And you were the only person sitting on the no lynch train all day
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #973 on: January 10, 2019, 07:37:35 am »

mcmc, LL, UoS: What was your first instinct/reaction to Dylan's claim?

Well, my initial reaction was I believed it but then nothing really came together so I didn't in the end

But all you did was vote no vote. You never expressed any interest in either Dylan or Jimm. And you were the only person sitting on the no lynch train all day

Yes. I would vote Dylan after a no lynch day. I see why you didn't want to no lynch, I had it in me that I didn't believe you 100%
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #974 on: January 10, 2019, 07:39:23 am »

vote: no lynch

I donít really believe Dylan, but i still would not put beyond faust and DS the gambit they would play. As much as i believe they are masons i would like to see the confirmation. Iíve been fooled like this all too many times.

This. I didn't really believe Dylan.

After that voting for him would be hammering and it wasn't late in the day. I was unavailable then, we had state holidays till 8th
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