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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Game Over! Town wins!)  (Read 12077 times)

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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #925 on: January 08, 2019, 11:51:18 pm »

Vanilla Townie
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #926 on: January 09, 2019, 01:16:59 am »

Snow up
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #927 on: January 09, 2019, 04:16:44 am »

While we wait... anyone know fun joints in Australia? Traveling around here for 3 weeks and i do t know a lick about the place.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #928 on: January 09, 2019, 04:19:09 am »

Also also friendly reminder as it seems a lot of us are kind of busy with life this game. The DL is on Sunday, and as we all know how the weekend can be... we should probably get to things quickly today.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #929 on: January 09, 2019, 07:15:42 am »

While we wait... anyone know fun joints in Australia? Traveling around here for 3 weeks and i do t know a lick about the place.

Whereabouts? What kind of fun joints?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #930 on: January 09, 2019, 11:11:12 am »

I'm a 1-shot RB.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #931 on: January 09, 2019, 11:12:30 am »

Also also friendly reminder as it seems a lot of us are kind of busy with life this game. The DL is on Sunday, and as we all know how the weekend can be... we should probably get to things quickly today.

I strongly agree with this, my vote is on Joth, but I want to hear any last useful faust thoughts (and Swan thoughts) before we vote.
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #932 on: January 09, 2019, 11:31:30 am »

Won't you claim your action?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #933 on: January 09, 2019, 11:50:23 am »

Okay so we are confirmed to be either:

(C/E)MBBTT - Mafia has Stongman and Roleblocker
(C/E)MBTTT - Mafia has 1-shot Strongman and Roleblocker

It means there is slightly more incentive to lynch lalight/joth/me. If we flip a full strongman umbrage is confirmed scum. However my guess is if umbrage is scum he is their 1-shot strongman, then itís a completely safe game claim.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #934 on: January 09, 2019, 12:08:16 pm »

Won't you claim your action?

Why would I ever do that?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #935 on: January 09, 2019, 12:13:21 pm »

Okay so we are confirmed to be either:

(C/E)MBBTT - Mafia has Stongman and Roleblocker
(C/E)MBTTT - Mafia has 1-shot Strongman and Roleblocker

It means there is slightly more incentive to lynch lalight/joth/me. If we flip a full strongman umbrage is confirmed scum. However my guess is if umbrage is scum he is their 1-shot strongman, then itís a completely safe game claim.

We're MMM(E/C)B
From your POV, if I'm lying the must be a T.
Eitehr way, scum have a full Roleblocker and a full Strongman, the only difference is whether or not they have a 1-shot BP on one of them.

So I guess the safe money is on Joth being the Strongman, mcmc is the Roleblocker and 1-shot BP.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #936 on: January 09, 2019, 12:14:30 pm »

EBWOP


We're MMM(E/C)B{B}
From your POV, if I'm lying the {B} must be a T.
Eitehr way, scum have a full Roleblocker and a full Strongman, the only difference is whether or not they have a 1-shot BP on one of them.

So I guess the safe money is on Joth being the Strongman, mcmc is the Roleblocker and 1-shot BP.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #937 on: January 09, 2019, 02:02:35 pm »

We have to be single M. If we were MMM there would be a universal backup.

Look Umbrage made a setup analysis mistake, it must be a scumslip and he must be scum, right Jim?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #938 on: January 09, 2019, 03:11:53 pm »

Oh, now I feel dumb, yeah
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #939 on: January 09, 2019, 03:28:52 pm »

Trying to analyze if umbrage makes this mistake while fake claiming something as scum is a big giant punch bowl of widow.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #940 on: January 09, 2019, 03:29:13 pm »

Wifom*
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #941 on: January 09, 2019, 03:31:32 pm »

All this is doing is pushing me more so to say we should be lynching lalight today no lynching tommorow and then there is a slight chance the decision is made easier.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #942 on: January 09, 2019, 05:34:01 pm »

All this is doing is pushing me more so to say we should be lynching lalight today no lynching tommorow and then there is a slight chance the decision is made easier.

Why LaLight?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #943 on: January 09, 2019, 06:22:09 pm »

We have to be single M. If we were MMM there would be a universal backup.

Look Umbrage made a setup analysis mistake, it must be a scumslip and he must be scum, right Jim?

That's not the reaction  I had.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #944 on: January 09, 2019, 06:52:29 pm »

Stop wasting time analyzing snow. Literally zero reason to lie in their spot. They were easily the towniest player alive except for me. If they were skum they could of just claimed VT and ridden it out.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #945 on: January 09, 2019, 06:54:25 pm »

Day 1:
- First note is Joth leaving the Dylan wagon as soon as it really starts taking off with little reason.
- Next note is LL avoiding both Dylan and Swan wagon as they start to rise. Could be skum distancing.
- My wagon starts to pick up, McMc puts me at L-1 super out of no where. Which is both strange, but also very bold.
- After I claim, people do not go back to Dylan, but instead go over to Jimm.
     As we approach the end of day the wagons lay as follows:
silverspawn (1): ashersky
Jimmmmm (6): silverspawn, Galzria, Robz888, Dylan32, jotheonah, LaLight
Galzria (5): faust, DatSwan, Jimmmmm, UmbrageOfSnow, mcmcsalot

The unwillingness for Jimm to get hammered leaves us with 3 options:
1) All skum is already on Jim (Dylan, Joth, LL) - Unlikely
2) 2 Skum are on Jimm and the third doesn't want to triple it up. So, (Dylan, Joth) or (Dylan, LL) - Most likely IMO.
3) Jimm is skum. So, (Dylan, Jimm, X) - Plausible. But when we consider Dylan was on Jimm so long for L1 and combine it with the claim against Jimm... I am leaning against it at this point.

So at the end of Day 1, my thoughts are that there is skum within [Joth/LL] (but not both), and there is skum within [Snow/McMc].
The exception to these pools would be IF Jimm is skum, then the Day 1 VCA kind of makes it [Dylan/Jimm/Anyone] - which is why no Jimm today.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #946 on: January 09, 2019, 06:55:41 pm »

Day 2 Stuff:
1. Snow starts the Dylan wagon - probably not snow/Dylan
2. LL wonít vote for Dylan, votes for McMc instead - Skummy, but points against McMc/LL team.
3. Joth goes for Snow - not partners
4. We have a quick succession of votes for Robz: UoS - joth - LaLight. Seems unlikely that there are 2 scum in here. That would put 1 scum in Jimmmmm/mcmc.
5. Counter wagon of Robz starts on Joth. Joth gets to (4) with [SS, Jimm, McMc, Robz] and then just dies. The fact Dylan is off both wagons strikes me as skummy. The above point would also suggest there is bussing here - so either McMc or Jimm.


So day 2 take away makes Joth and one of McMc/LL/Jimm skummy looking.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #947 on: January 09, 2019, 06:57:12 pm »

Day 3 Stuff:
1. LL reallllly confident we are masons - could be conf!bias
2. LL, Snow, McMc all want no lynch - relevant bc the play here would be to iso Dylan/Jimm and also push for no lynch knowing they were gonna off me or faust anyways.
3. So if everyone ďput there money where there mouth isĒ we would be:
Jimmmmm (1): Dylan32
Dylan32 (2): Jimmmmm, faust, Swan
No Lynch (1): LaLight, Snow, McMc
Off (1): Joth
Hereís the thing- Jimm isnít leaving Dylan after the accusation. Dylan isnít leaving Jimm for the same reason. Faust and i had made it pretty clear we are not wanting a no lynch today. So the only way we were getting to no lynch would be by default, which would look skummy af. So, for this bit, it doesnít even matter if Jimm is skum or not... with this set up, skum is gonna bus.
Joth and snow are the two changers - and to previous points, it is t both of them.

Day 3 had me looking at [Joth/Snow], [McMc/LL] and then depending on how that pans out, i guess there is a world where it is one of those brackets picks plus Jimm.
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DatSwan

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #948 on: January 09, 2019, 07:08:07 pm »

Team Summaries:
1. Likely that there is exactly one skum in [Joth/Snow]
2. Likely that there is exactly one skum in [LL/McMc]
3. Jimm could be skum if McMc is skum, and maybe Joth.. maybe.

TLDR; I think it is Dylan, Joth, and one of [McMc, LL, Jim] - in that order of likeliness.

Snow is my top town read, once i shake the paranoia away... and Joth was mutually both masons top SR... so that makes the Joth/Snow choice fairly straightforward for me.

Vote: Joth
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #949 on: January 09, 2019, 10:23:28 pm »

Stop wasting time analyzing snow. Literally zero reason to lie in their spot. They were easily the towniest player alive except for me. If they were skum they could of just claimed VT and ridden it out.

Ah but maybe thatís why he did itó to make you IC him. As the last claimant in the mass claim and scum, he would have all the information (unless town lied). So he could pick almost any claim and know it was safe. At that point why not claim a role?
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