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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Game Over! Town wins!)  (Read 147109 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #800 on: January 02, 2019, 11:55:19 am »

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

I got copped as scum. You know this how?

I don’t. What I was trying to say was, either way you would be saying Dylan was lying. So once someone claims cop and offers a guilty result, the accused is going to say “This is a lie” no matter what. Hence, not compelling.

PPE: also not compelling, jumping on an honest math mistake and calling it a scumslip. ::)
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #801 on: January 02, 2019, 11:56:19 am »

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

I got copped as scum. You know this how?

I don’t. What I was trying to say was, either way you would be saying Dylan was lying. So once someone claims cop and offers a guilty result, the accused is going to say “This is a lie” no matter what. Hence, not compelling.

PPE: also not compelling, jumping on an honest math mistake and calling it a scumslip. ::)

What was the math mistake?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #802 on: January 02, 2019, 11:57:48 am »

I am here not counter claiming and think we should no lynch
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #803 on: January 02, 2019, 12:05:41 pm »

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

I got copped as scum. You know this how?

I don’t. What I was trying to say was, either way you would be saying Dylan was lying. So once someone claims cop and offers a guilty result, the accused is going to say “This is a lie” no matter what. Hence, not compelling.

PPE: also not compelling, jumping on an honest math mistake and calling it a scumslip. ::)

What was the math mistake?

forgetting that faust and swan being scum means there must be a UB.

well, unless there is a second set of real masons, but that would be totally insane and is probably not worth considering

I am here not counter claiming and think we should no lynch

Cool cool. Do you have any other comments on what's going on?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #804 on: January 02, 2019, 12:12:45 pm »

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

I got copped as scum. You know this how?

I don’t. What I was trying to say was, either way you would be saying Dylan was lying. So once someone claims cop and offers a guilty result, the accused is going to say “This is a lie” no matter what. Hence, not compelling.

PPE: also not compelling, jumping on an honest math mistake and calling it a scumslip. ::)

What was the math mistake?

forgetting that faust and swan being scum means there must be a UB.

What does that have to do with math? You didn't forget anything. You assumed that UB was a safe fakeclaim. What possible reason could you have for assuming that other than that "UB is a safe fakeclaim" was in your mind already?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #805 on: January 02, 2019, 12:14:05 pm »

Anyway, I'm going to bed. No lynch is probably the right move, although there's no guarantee it will actually get us anywhere.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #806 on: January 02, 2019, 12:20:51 pm »

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

I got copped as scum. You know this how?

I don’t. What I was trying to say was, either way you would be saying Dylan was lying. So once someone claims cop and offers a guilty result, the accused is going to say “This is a lie” no matter what. Hence, not compelling.

PPE: also not compelling, jumping on an honest math mistake and calling it a scumslip. ::)

What was the math mistake?

forgetting that faust and swan being scum means there must be a UB.

What does that have to do with math? You didn't forget anything. You assumed that UB was a safe fakeclaim. What possible reason could you have for assuming that other than that "UB is a safe fakeclaim" was in your mind already?

Well for one thing, if it was in my mind already, it might have been because I had just read it in your post:

We know the setup is CBXXXX. (The Xs can be more or less anything, and the C could instead be an E.)      
Assuming that the Masons are Town, then (at least) one of the Xs is an M.      
We know that not all 4 Xs are Ms, otherwise we would have an IC.      
So then the setup is CBMYXX, when Y != M.      
In order for the UB to not have been converted to a Mason, both Xs would have to have rolled as Ms, which would have a probability of 10% * 10% = 1%.      
      
So if the Masons are Town, there is a 99% chance that one of them was the UB. Scum obviously know this and so consider the UB claim to be relatively unlikely to be counterclaimed.

PPE 5

But really, my brain is just not good at this stuff. I can't hold it in my head. I don't really know what else to say. I got excited and was trying to elucidate the possibilities and I made a mistake. Some people are good at setup analysis. I'm not one of them.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #807 on: January 02, 2019, 02:20:12 pm »

Still reading but No Lynch is by far the best play here, if faust is sure he’ll be the NK he should make a big contribution today before we no lynch, and that’s still better, even if tomorrow he’d have the kill to work with.

I claim not-UB.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #808 on: January 02, 2019, 02:21:10 pm »

By the same logic I'm not inclined to give opinions on how I feel about Dylan vs. Jimmm and Faust-Swan
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #809 on: January 02, 2019, 02:26:03 pm »

Okay, caught up, and on second thought, I'd totally NK me here, so maybe I should give reads after all. Thoughts on this?
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #810 on: January 02, 2019, 03:43:10 pm »

Okay, caught up, and on second thought, I'd totally NK me here, so maybe I should give reads after all. Thoughts on this?
I think it's not worht it to hold back at this point. For you, that is. I can still keep my thoughts in the Mason QT because even if I die DatSwan can share them.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #811 on: January 02, 2019, 03:50:19 pm »

Okay, I'll call the scumtem: mcmcsalot, Joth, Dylan

Jimmm is like the scummiest possible person for Dylan to have copped, even granted that believing Dylan's cop claim depends on assuming Dylan made bad cop choices; Jimm is the player who absolutely works best with a gameplan of implicating Faust + Swan as scum fakeclaiming masons, it is by far the most convenient result to get against a scumteam of Jim-Faust-Swan if you want to push that narrative, and it makes no sense to assume there is another cop so strongly Dylan wants to avoid making a correct cop choice.

Joth's reaction to Dylan may as well be a scumbuddy claim.  Momsalon by POE.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #812 on: January 02, 2019, 05:02:25 pm »

I guess I haven't actually claimed not-UB yet.

For the record, idk why people are getting the idea that I for sure believe Dylan's claim (which I guess is the basis for this idea that we're partners). I just think it needs to be considered.

To me personally, the cop claim feels to clumsy to be scum. To over-the-top and unnecessary. It doesn't make sense. And Jimmmmm's reaction felt very scummy. I mean, he really came at me. He had all kinds of frenzied defenses ready. It did not feel like a falsely accused towny to me.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #813 on: January 02, 2019, 05:06:15 pm »

By the same logic I'm not inclined to give opinions on how I feel about Dylan vs. Jimmm and Faust-Swan

We need to be careful with this. I don't think it's Dylan vs Jim-Faust-Swan. It's Dylan vs Jim. Dylan could be town and Jim could be scum without Faust and Swan being scum. Masons and a UB can co-exist with a triple M role.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #814 on: January 02, 2019, 05:56:33 pm »

He had all kinds of frenzied defenses ready.

This seems like an oxymoron. If I had them ready, they wouldn't be frenzied.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #815 on: January 02, 2019, 05:59:24 pm »

It did not feel like a falsely accused towny to me.

How would you expect a falsely accused Townie to react with the game on the line?
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Swowl

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #816 on: January 02, 2019, 09:29:03 pm »

I do not believe Dylan. I am mobile now so will post later but there is just no way that they don’t cop a mason as town. Even if they are worried about the shot. It’s a double IC or double skum find.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #817 on: January 03, 2019, 12:10:55 am »

By the same logic I'm not inclined to give opinions on how I feel about Dylan vs. Jimmm and Faust-Swan

We need to be careful with this. I don't think it's Dylan vs Jim-Faust-Swan. It's Dylan vs Jim.

I agree that we need to be careful. I don’t agree it MUST be Dylan Vs Jimmm, given our situation in MYLO.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #818 on: January 03, 2019, 03:33:46 am »

Vote: Dylan
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #819 on: January 03, 2019, 04:11:40 am »

Okay, I'll call the scumtem: mcmcsalot, Joth, Dylan

Jimmm is like the scummiest possible person for Dylan to have copped, even granted that believing Dylan's cop claim depends on assuming Dylan made bad cop choices; Jimm is the player who absolutely works best with a gameplan of implicating Faust + Swan as scum fakeclaiming masons, it is by far the most convenient result to get against a scumteam of Jim-Faust-Swan if you want to push that narrative, and it makes no sense to assume there is another cop so strongly Dylan wants to avoid making a correct cop choice.

Joth's reaction to Dylan may as well be a scumbuddy claim.  Momsalon by POE.
Have you given thought to the scenario where Jimmmmm and Dylan are both scum?
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #820 on: January 03, 2019, 06:46:26 am »

Vote: Dylan

Suddenly not feeling the no-lynch, eh?
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #821 on: January 03, 2019, 06:47:35 am »

One of you needs to unvote! If you ARE both town and Dylan is town, scum can quickhammer Dylan right now!
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #822 on: January 03, 2019, 09:44:32 am »

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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #823 on: January 03, 2019, 09:45:46 am »

One of you needs to unvote! If you ARE both town and Dylan is town, scum can quickhammer Dylan right now!
If Dylan is town, then one scum is already voting for him...
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #824 on: January 03, 2019, 09:46:24 am »

Like, you understand that there is no way that Dylan and Jimmmmm are both scum, right?
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