Honestly I would have bet on there not being a UB. This would have truly made ICs out of Swan and me. It is scummy for joth and Jimmmmm to not have caught that.
Again, not understanding you. Not to have caught what?
That having no UB means Swan and me are ICs.
Oh, because the only scenario with no UB is one in which one converted. But we don't know if there is a UB or not, so you aren't. We talked about asking a UB to claim on day 1 and ultimately decided not to. Now we do have a UB claim.
So there's two possibilities here:
1) DatSwan, faust, and Jimmmmm are the scum team. They presumably talked N0 about what they would do if forced to claim and decided on a mason gambit. DatSwan calimed Mason without claiming his partner, leaving himself open to claim his scum partner later but not tying him to someone if he didn't had to. But somehow the wagon moved from DatSwan to Jimmmm, leading to Swan's scummy refusal to move to the Jimmmmm wagon night 1.
On Day 2, Umbrage asks faust if he's a mason. scum!faust gets forced into deciding whether to go whole hog with the mason claim and decides to do it. They begin an aggressive campaign to IC themselves, hoping town won't notice that they keep not being nightkilled.
This is seeming less and less crazy and more and more likely given the evidence that we have. I'm not particularly disturbed by the fact that Dylan didn't come out with his UB claim earlier, since doing so would have meant giving up his potentially valuable cop shot.
2) DatSwan and faust are masons. Dylan is scum. In this case, we need to explain why scum didn't kill the masons and why they are risking a proactive cop claim when they are doing pretty well without one. As to number one, the only thing that makes any sense is that they're doing this all to frame Swan and faust. But that's almost as insane a scum play as claiming masons in the first place. Isn't it? Doesn't scum just kill the claimed mason right away night 1, instead of killing ashersky? Dylan's partners here must be Umbrage, mcmc, or LaLight (or me, if you're not me and you didn't see my role PM like I did)
3) DatSwan and faust are scum, Dylan is their partner. This is a possibility we need to consider. The scum have been doing very well with their mason claim, and now need only one more mislynch to win the game. They also know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim. So they decide to try a hail mary. If it works, they win. If Dylan gets lynched, hey faust and Swan get to keep on being "IC"s into the end game.
I guess at the end of the day what I'm saying is
A) Scums claiming mason day 1 is nutty, but so is scum leaving masons alive over and over. Since we're dealing with crazy scum either way, someone will have to convince me that one crazy scenario is more likely than the other. Also given exactly how things went down, I can see Swan and faust kind of falling backwards into the plan, which makes it a little less crazy gutsy.
B) No lynching and getting one more NK will give us more information. But not that much more. If faust or Swan gets NKd (and flip Mason) then we are back here with an IC, but we still don't know whether Dylan or Jimmm is scum and we don't know where the other two scum are amongst me, Umbrage, lalight, and mcmc. There's almost zero chance Dylan or Jimmmmm gets NKd. If anyone else gets NK'd we have shrunken the pool of possible scum, but we will still have to decide whether or not we believe the masons are masons. I'm fine with doing it, but I think mostly it delays the inevitable.
Final note, my gut here is to believe Dylan and not Jimmmm, although the tiny math chance gives me pause. Gut read, Jimmmmm is acting right now exactly like scum!Jimmmm from scenario 1 would act. He's acting like he had prepared for this possibility in advance. Look how quick he was with the math post.
Final final note: It's going to be really hard to lynch scum today. With 8 alive, and 3 scum, we literally need every town player on a wagon to lynch successfully. So if we're in scenario 1, for instance, that means mcmc, Umbrage, and Lalight need to show up soon and be active and we all need to agree to lynch Jimmmmm or a Mason claimant.
PPE: 14. Just going to post, will respond to new stuff after.