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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Game Over! Town wins!)  (Read 147203 times)

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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #775 on: January 02, 2019, 10:57:05 am »

If we ended up in a setup with multiple cops, I feel like faust is kind of a must target tonight to help clear up once and for all the mason conundrum.

This is a scummy post anyway. What good can come from trying to direct Night Actions in the game thread? As a rule, you trust your teammates to make their own decisions in this regard. Much more likely trying to avoid scum being Copped.
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #776 on: January 02, 2019, 10:59:48 am »

If we ended up in a setup with multiple cops, I feel like faust is kind of a must target tonight to help clear up once and for all the mason conundrum.

This is a scummy post anyway. What good can come from trying to direct Night Actions in the game thread? As a rule, you trust your teammates to make their own decisions in this regard. Much more likely trying to avoid scum being Copped.

Generally agree, but considering my reasons for doubting them, I think trying to coordinate to potentially IC them in spite of scums attempts to WIFOM them all game is a case where I was willing to make an exception, and I'd do it again in a later game.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #777 on: January 02, 2019, 11:00:54 am »

If we ended up in a setup with multiple cops, I feel like faust is kind of a must target tonight to help clear up once and for all the mason conundrum.

This is a scummy post anyway. What good can come from trying to direct Night Actions in the game thread? As a rule, you trust your teammates to make their own decisions in this regard. Much more likely trying to avoid scum being Copped.

Generally agree, but considering my reasons for doubting them, I think trying to coordinate to potentially IC them in spite of scums attempts to WIFOM them all game is a case where I was willing to make an exception, and I'd do it again in a later game.

Seems like a terrible waste of a 1-Shot Cop.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #778 on: January 02, 2019, 11:02:54 am »

unvote
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #779 on: January 02, 2019, 11:05:28 am »

And besides, why wouldn't I just go ahead and claim a guilty result on Swan as if I went through with my supposed plan? Surely scum!me would have realized how much weaker this would all look the way it actually's gone down, but the simple fact is, I didn't think about how it looked. I was concerned about what was best, and I thought there was a decent chance that if the masons weren't, there was a decent chance that there was at least another 1-shot cop or something out there (since there were several different roles that could get a 1shot +) that would get a result on them while I looked somewhere else.

ppe 2
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #780 on: January 02, 2019, 11:07:55 am »

And besides, why wouldn't I just go ahead and claim a guilty result on Swan as if I went through with my supposed plan? Surely scum!me would have realized how much weaker this would all look the way it actually's gone down, but the simple fact is, I didn't think about how it looked. I was concerned about what was best, and I thought there was a decent chance that if the masons weren't, there was a decent chance that there was at least another 1-shot cop or something out there (since there were several different roles that could get a 1shot +) that would get a result on them while I looked somewhere else.

ppe 2
Well, if you are town, know that you definitely massively misplayed.

Did you leave any breadcrumbs that show that you are a UB?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #781 on: January 02, 2019, 11:11:33 am »

Surely scum!me would have realized how much weaker this would all look the way it actually's gone down

The fact that you're making this argument invalidates this argument.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #782 on: January 02, 2019, 11:13:55 am »

Question to Dylan and Jimmmmm: You know one scum. Can you try to figure out who you think their partners are? Rereads would be ideal.
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #783 on: January 02, 2019, 11:15:35 am »

ashes kill isn't really that strange. skum knows mason claim is true and found out 1 shot cop was in the game. They also are gonna know which PRs they have... which could pretty much be:
TTTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TT = Strongman; Roleblocker
T = Strongman; Roleblocker
0 Ts = Strongman; Roleblocker; 1-Shot Bulletproof****

As it states in the opening thread - neither me nor my partner know if we were UB converted or not. However, it is seemingly unimportant to this point as the only difference between 4-Ts (single M role) and 4 T's (double M role), would be the existence of the UB.

Whatever... what that boils down to for me is that they probably did not make the choice based off of PR stuff. So why kill ashes? - because ashes was off the wagons.

I think that they killed ashes primarily to prevent information to be gathered from VCA on the day. Not that that is worth too much really, but it is my thought on the matter.

A double M roll would be an IC instead of masons. Masons + UB would be a triple M roll, which would have a much bigger impact on the rolls, since a triple M roll would leave us at MMMC**, rather than MC****.  So a UB being in the game seems to make the mason claim a bit weaker.

Stated as a fact rather than as hypothetical
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #784 on: January 02, 2019, 11:16:52 am »

Question to Dylan and Jimmmmm: You know one scum. Can you try to figure out who you think their partners are? Rereads would be ideal.

Prereread joth seems obvious. LaLight a likely third. I should get some rereads done tomorrow.
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #785 on: January 02, 2019, 11:17:42 am »

That's as close to a breadcrumb as I was willing to go, because even though I didn't consider being vigged for looking scummy, I didn't want to draw the NK by letting on that I had that cop shot too much.
ppe1
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #786 on: January 02, 2019, 11:18:23 am »

ashes kill isn't really that strange. skum knows mason claim is true and found out 1 shot cop was in the game. They also are gonna know which PRs they have... which could pretty much be:
TTTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TTT = 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker
TT = Strongman; Roleblocker
T = Strongman; Roleblocker
0 Ts = Strongman; Roleblocker; 1-Shot Bulletproof****

As it states in the opening thread - neither me nor my partner know if we were UB converted or not. However, it is seemingly unimportant to this point as the only difference between 4-Ts (single M role) and 4 T's (double M role), would be the existence of the UB.

Whatever... what that boils down to for me is that they probably did not make the choice based off of PR stuff. So why kill ashes? - because ashes was off the wagons.

I think that they killed ashes primarily to prevent information to be gathered from VCA on the day. Not that that is worth too much really, but it is my thought on the matter.

A double M roll would be an IC instead of masons. Masons + UB would be a triple M roll, which would have a much bigger impact on the rolls, since a triple M roll would leave us at MMMC**, rather than MC****.  So a UB being in the game seems to make the mason claim a bit weaker.

Stated as a fact rather than as hypothetical

Nice find.
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #787 on: January 02, 2019, 11:21:19 am »

...quote...

Nice find.

I did use that phrasing on purpose, didn't have to go digging as you seem to be suggesting.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #788 on: January 02, 2019, 11:22:42 am »

Honestly I would have bet on there not being a UB. This would have truly made ICs out of Swan and me. It is scummy for joth and Jimmmmm to not have caught that.

Again, not understanding you. Not to have caught what?
That having no UB means Swan and me are ICs.


Oh, because the only scenario with no UB is one in which one converted. But we don't know if there is a UB or not, so you aren't. We talked about asking a UB to claim on day 1 and ultimately decided not to. Now we do have a UB claim.

So there's two possibilities here:

1) DatSwan, faust, and Jimmmmm are the scum team. They presumably talked N0 about what they would do if forced to claim and decided on a mason gambit. DatSwan calimed Mason without claiming his partner, leaving himself open to claim his scum partner later but not tying him to someone if he didn't had to. But somehow the wagon moved from DatSwan to Jimmmm, leading to Swan's scummy refusal to move to the Jimmmmm wagon night 1.

On Day 2, Umbrage asks faust if he's a mason. scum!faust gets forced into deciding whether to go whole hog with the mason claim and decides to do it. They begin an aggressive campaign to IC themselves, hoping town won't notice that they keep not being nightkilled.

This is seeming less and less crazy and more and more likely given the evidence that we have. I'm not particularly disturbed by the fact that Dylan didn't come out with his UB claim earlier, since doing so would have meant giving up his potentially valuable cop shot.

2) DatSwan and faust are masons. Dylan is scum. In this case, we need to explain why scum didn't kill the masons and why they are risking a proactive cop claim when they are doing pretty well without one. As to number one, the only thing that makes any sense is that they're doing this all to frame Swan and faust. But that's almost as insane a scum play as claiming masons in the first place. Isn't it? Doesn't scum just kill the claimed mason right away night 1, instead of killing ashersky? Dylan's partners here must be Umbrage, mcmc, or LaLight (or me, if you're not me and you didn't see my role PM like I did)

3) DatSwan and faust are scum, Dylan is their partner. This is a possibility we need to consider. The scum have been doing very well with their mason claim, and now need only one more mislynch to win the game. They also know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim. So they decide to try a hail mary. If it works, they win. If Dylan gets lynched, hey faust and Swan get to keep on being "IC"s into the end game.

I guess at the end of the day what I'm saying is

A) Scums claiming mason day 1 is nutty, but so is scum leaving masons alive over and over. Since we're dealing with crazy scum either way, someone will have to convince me that one crazy scenario is more likely than the other. Also given exactly how things went down, I can see Swan and faust kind of falling backwards into the plan, which makes it a little less crazy gutsy.

B) No lynching and getting one more NK will give us more information. But not that much more. If faust or Swan gets NKd (and flip Mason) then we are back here with an IC, but we still don't know whether Dylan or Jimmm is scum and we don't know where the other two scum are amongst me, Umbrage, lalight, and mcmc. There's almost zero chance Dylan or Jimmmmm gets NKd. If anyone else gets NK'd we have shrunken the pool of possible scum, but we will still have to decide whether or not we believe the masons are masons. I'm fine with doing it, but I think mostly it delays the inevitable.

Final note, my gut here is to believe Dylan and not Jimmmm, although the tiny math chance gives me pause. Gut read, Jimmmmm is acting right now exactly like scum!Jimmmm from scenario 1 would act. He's acting like he had prepared for this possibility in advance. Look how quick he was with the math post.

Final final note: It's going to be really hard to lynch scum today. With 8 alive, and 3 scum, we literally need every town player on a wagon to lynch successfully. So if we're in scenario 1, for instance, that means mcmc, Umbrage, and Lalight need to show up soon and be active and we all need to agree to lynch Jimmmmm or a Mason claimant.

PPE: 14. Just going to post, will respond to new stuff after.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #789 on: January 02, 2019, 11:23:07 am »

Just noticed I said 2 possibilities than listed three. Sorry, thought of another one midway through.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #790 on: January 02, 2019, 11:26:01 am »

I would very much like to hear from everybody else.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #791 on: January 02, 2019, 11:26:23 am »

...quote...

Nice find.

I did use that phrasing on purpose, didn't have to go digging as you seem to be suggesting.

Yeah that's probably true.
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #792 on: January 02, 2019, 11:28:22 am »

There is a 4th possibility, masons and I are all telling the truth and we are the 1%
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #793 on: January 02, 2019, 11:28:41 am »

There is a 4th possibility, masons and I are all telling the truth and we are the 1%

Re: Joth's wall of text
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #794 on: January 02, 2019, 11:28:56 am »

3) DatSwan and faust are scum, Dylan is their partner. This is a possibility we need to consider. The scum have been doing very well with their mason claim, and now need only one more mislynch to win the game. They also know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim. So they decide to try a hail mary. If it works, they win. If Dylan gets lynched, hey faust and Swan get to keep on being "IC"s into the end game.
This is impossible, as there would have to be an actual UB out there somewhere. Well I guess not impossible, not everyone has had the chance to counterclaim, but you know...
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #795 on: January 02, 2019, 11:33:14 am »

3) DatSwan and faust are scum, Dylan is their partner. This is a possibility we need to consider. The scum have been doing very well with their mason claim, and now need only one more mislynch to win the game. They also know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim. So they decide to try a hail mary. If it works, they win. If Dylan gets lynched, hey faust and Swan get to keep on being "IC"s into the end game.
This is impossible, as there would have to be an actual UB out there somewhere. Well I guess not impossible, not everyone has had the chance to counterclaim, but you know...

Right! Sorry, setup math is not my forte.

I think I also left out the possibility that Jimm is scum and his partners are not faust and Swan. Which is of course possible.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #796 on: January 02, 2019, 11:35:46 am »

I mean don't get me wrong, I would love a counterclaim just to add that extra dose of craziness.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #797 on: January 02, 2019, 11:37:37 am »

I mean don't get me wrong, I would love a counterclaim just to add that extra dose of craziness.

Congratulations on being alive, by the way.

I mean, not so much if you’re scum, but if you’re town congrats. Maybe your streak is coming to an end.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #798 on: January 02, 2019, 11:45:41 am »

I mean don't get me wrong, I would love a counterclaim just to add that extra dose of craziness.

Congratulations on being alive, by the way.

I mean, not so much if you’re scum, but if you’re town congrats. Maybe your streak is coming to an end.
I mean if it's just due to my bad reads then I'm not sure that is congratulations-worthy.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #799 on: January 02, 2019, 11:52:12 am »

2) DatSwan and faust are masons. Dylan is scum. In this case, we need to explain why scum didn't kill the masons and why they are risking a proactive cop claim when they are doing pretty well without one.

Again, we don't need to explain scum's behaviour at all. The fact that you're arguing this is the explanation. Do someone kind of crazy late enough in the game that you can likely get away with it => argue that it's so crazy that scum would never do it => win the game.

Quote
As to number one, the only thing that makes any sense is that they're doing this all to frame Swan and faust.

No, you're doing it to frame me. Obviously. One more mislynch is probably all you need, so this is how you're attempting to get it.

Quote
But that's almost as insane a scum play as claiming masons in the first place. Isn't it? Doesn't scum just kill the claimed mason right away night 1, instead of killing ashersky?

Not if you want to make this argument.

Quote
3) DatSwan and faust are scum, Dylan is their partner. This is a possibility we need to consider. The scum have been doing very well with their mason claim, and now need only one more mislynch to win the game. They also know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim. So they decide to try a hail mary. If it works, they win. If Dylan gets lynched, hey faust and Swan get to keep on being "IC"s into the end game.

This is false and a scumslip. If Swan, faust and Dylan are the scum team, then the real UB is still out there, and UB would be an entirely unsafe fakeclaim. But you know that UB is a relatively safe fakeclaim and so messed up your story here.

Quote
Final note, my gut here is to believe Dylan and not Jimmmm, although the tiny math chance gives me pause. Gut read, Jimmmmm is acting right now exactly like scum!Jimmmm from scenario 1 would act. He's acting like he had prepared for this possibility in advance. Look how quick he was with the math post.

I posted #754 when I saw Dylan's claim and #764 32 minutes later. Plenty of time to grab some paper, come up with a figure of 97.3%, realise that 4 Ms were impossible, change it to 99%, and do my best to make the post clear and concise.

Quote
So if we're in scenario 1, for instance, that means mcmc, Umbrage, and Lalight need to show up soon and be active and we all need to agree to lynch Jimmmmm or a Mason claimant.

You'd like that wouldn't you?

PPE 6
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