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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Game Over! Town wins!)  (Read 147244 times)

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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #750 on: January 02, 2019, 07:50:14 am »

Whoops, quoted the wrong post. Meant to quote this one:


No lynch is only good here if there is serious doubt that DatSwan and me are town. Is there?
So to clarify, you think it is plausible that DatSwan and me are scum?

I think the likelihood is low, but greater than zero.

I tend to agree with Jimmmm here. I think it’s been a weird game and so it makes sense to look at weird plays as the explanation.

But also, I don’t understand what your original post is saying. What does your Mason claim have to do with the value of no-lynching?
Well if DatSwan and me are ICs, scum is just going to lynch one of us and that's no benefit to town.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #751 on: January 02, 2019, 07:50:46 am »

Whoops, quoted the wrong post. Meant to quote this one:


No lynch is only good here if there is serious doubt that DatSwan and me are town. Is there?
So to clarify, you think it is plausible that DatSwan and me are scum?

I think the likelihood is low, but greater than zero.

I tend to agree with Jimmmm here. I think it’s been a weird game and so it makes sense to look at weird plays as the explanation.

But also, I don’t understand what your original post is saying. What does your Mason claim have to do with the value of no-lynching?
Well if DatSwan and me are ICs, scum is just going to lynch kill one of us and that's no benefit to town.
EBWOP
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #752 on: January 02, 2019, 08:11:23 am »

Whoops, quoted the wrong post. Meant to quote this one:


No lynch is only good here if there is serious doubt that DatSwan and me are town. Is there?
So to clarify, you think it is plausible that DatSwan and me are scum?

I think the likelihood is low, but greater than zero.

I tend to agree with Jimmmm here. I think it’s been a weird game and so it makes sense to look at weird plays as the explanation.

But also, I don’t understand what your original post is saying. What does your Mason claim have to do with the value of no-lynching?
Well if DatSwan and me are ICs, scum is just going to lynch one of us and that's no benefit to town.

You're clearly not ICs. And I don't see why scum would suddenly start killing you now. Either you are scum or scum is pretty all in on trying to convince us you're scum. Either way, I don't see them changing their pattern just because of a no-lynch.
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #753 on: January 02, 2019, 10:03:16 am »

Ok, it may not be time for a massclaim, but it's time for me to claim.

I'm the UB. Inherited Galz's cop shot, checked Jimmmmm last night: guilty.

Vote: Jimmmmm


This is why I was so skeptical of the mason claim until I realized that faust actually was able to explain the EoD1 consistently with the claim.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #754 on: January 02, 2019, 10:12:03 am »

Ok, it may not be time for a massclaim, but it's time for me to claim.

I'm the UB. Inherited Galz's cop shot, checked Jimmmmm last night: guilty.

Vote: Jimmmmm


This is why I was so skeptical of the mason claim until I realized that faust actually was able to explain the EoD1 consistently with the claim.

This is a lie.

Vote: Dylan
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #755 on: January 02, 2019, 10:17:13 am »

Ok, it may not be time for a massclaim, but it's time for me to claim.

I'm the UB. Inherited Galz's cop shot, checked Jimmmmm last night: guilty.

Vote: Jimmmmm


This is why I was so skeptical of the mason claim until I realized that faust actually was able to explain the EoD1 consistently with the claim.

Sooo... what about this:

If we ended up in a setup with multiple cops, I feel like faust is kind of a must target tonight to help clear up once and for all the mason conundrum.
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #756 on: January 02, 2019, 10:20:19 am »

Ok, it may not be time for a massclaim, but it's time for me to claim.

I'm the UB. Inherited Galz's cop shot, checked Jimmmmm last night: guilty.

Vote: Jimmmmm


This is why I was so skeptical of the mason claim until I realized that faust actually was able to explain the EoD1 consistently with the claim.

Sooo... what about this:

If we ended up in a setup with multiple cops, I feel like faust is kind of a must target tonight to help clear up once and for all the mason conundrum.

I was hoping to target DatSwan and if there was a 2nd cop they would hit you instead. But after I checked to see what was said in twilight after I left, DatSwan's post saying no target him instead worried me that if that 2nd cop existed we would both end up targeting Swan and it would be a waste, but if I targeted you and they listened the same thing would happen, so I completely sidestepped the WIFOM and checked Jim, who I had been suspicious of ever since his wagon froze D1.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #757 on: January 02, 2019, 10:21:55 am »

I realize I should have said in my post a cop should target DatSwan, knowing that would be the more normal and predictable play, which targeting faust myself, but didn't catch that until Swan read that post the way he did...
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #758 on: January 02, 2019, 10:22:19 am »

So maybe not ideal, but on the brightside, it worked out anyway
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #759 on: January 02, 2019, 10:24:17 am »

I am a Mason. I am not claiming my partner. We should lynch Galz.
If there’s a UB in play that did NOT auto-convert to Mason, should they claim and we lynch Swan?

Good question. I think they answer is yes, they should claim.
Vote: Jimmmmm
Almost forgot to put it in thread, but I will be VLA from Christmas Eve through New Years Day, the holidays themselves V, in between very LA for working at a conference, but I might be able to at least read and stay kind of caught up.

Relevant sequence of posts from the Mason claim onwards. No indication that Dylan might be UB.
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #760 on: January 02, 2019, 10:32:09 am »

I wasn't convinced that claiming there was the best play, as other people eventually agreed later in the thread, but I assumed most people wouldn't go ahead and try to lynch Swan without the counterclaim, so I went to my 2nd choice wagon without saying anything.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #761 on: January 02, 2019, 10:38:10 am »

I feel like at this point the best move is to Vote: No Lynch

Honestly I would have bet on there not being a UB. This would have truly made ICs out of Swan and me. It is scummy for joth and Jimmmmm to not have caught that.

But with things as they are, I feel that the better play is to either confirm Masons, or remove someone from the lynch pool.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #762 on: January 02, 2019, 10:42:54 am »

Ok, it may not be time for a massclaim, but it's time for me to claim.

I'm the UB. Inherited Galz's cop shot, checked Jimmmmm last night: guilty.

Vote: Jimmmmm


This is why I was so skeptical of the mason claim until I realized that faust actually was able to explain the EoD1 consistently with the claim.

This is a lie.

Vote: Dylan

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

Dylan, why didn't you use your 1-shot right away -- why wait until last night?
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #763 on: January 02, 2019, 10:43:43 am »

Honestly I would have bet on there not being a UB. This would have truly made ICs out of Swan and me. It is scummy for joth and Jimmmmm to not have caught that.

Again, not understanding you. Not to have caught what?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #764 on: January 02, 2019, 10:44:04 am »

We know the setup is CBXXXX. (The Xs can be more or less anything, and the C could instead be an E.)      
Assuming that the Masons are Town, then (at least) one of the Xs is an M.      
We know that not all 4 Xs are Ms, otherwise we would have an IC.      
So then the setup is CBMYXX, when Y != M.      
In order for the UB to not have been converted to a Mason, both Xs would have to have rolled as Ms, which would have a probability of 10% * 10% = 1%.      
      
So if the Masons are Town, there is a 99% chance that one of them was the UB. Scum obviously know this and so consider the UB claim to be relatively unlikely to be counterclaimed.

PPE 5
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #765 on: January 02, 2019, 10:44:54 am »

Honestly I would have bet on there not being a UB. This would have truly made ICs out of Swan and me. It is scummy for joth and Jimmmmm to not have caught that.

Again, not understanding you. Not to have caught what?
That having no UB means Swan and me are ICs.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #766 on: January 02, 2019, 10:46:03 am »

joth still seems the most likely partner. I'm picking LaLight as the third. No lynch is still probably best though.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #767 on: January 02, 2019, 10:46:59 am »

Coming from the person who just got copped at scum, this is not particularly compelling.

I got copped as scum. You know this how?
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #768 on: January 02, 2019, 10:47:23 am »

Dylan, why didn't you use your 1-shot right away -- why wait until last night?
Right, he could have used it N1.... I missed that. The whole thing is kind of dodgy.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #769 on: January 02, 2019, 10:48:31 am »

Dylan, why didn't you use your 1-shot right away -- why wait until last night?

I think you know the answer - you decided to wait until mylo to try to finish the game off with this claim.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #770 on: January 02, 2019, 10:50:28 am »

I had enough people wanting to lynch me I wasn't afraid of getting NKd and wanted to hold it until I had a smaller pool of people to target.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #771 on: January 02, 2019, 10:51:25 am »

I had enough people wanting to lynch me I wasn't afraid of getting NKd and wanted to hold it until I had a smaller pool of people to target.
And scum had a smaller pool of people to roleblock?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #772 on: January 02, 2019, 10:51:32 am »

Unless someone counterclaims Dylan, the Masons are confirmed to me.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #773 on: January 02, 2019, 10:52:34 am »

I had enough people wanting to lynch me I wasn't afraid of getting NKd and wanted to hold it until I had a smaller pool of people to target.

Did you consider being Vigged?
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #774 on: January 02, 2019, 10:55:07 am »

I had enough people wanting to lynch me I wasn't afraid of getting NKd and wanted to hold it until I had a smaller pool of people to target.
And scum had a smaller pool of people to roleblock?

Honestly hadn't even considered that...

I had enough people wanting to lynch me I wasn't afraid of getting NKd and wanted to hold it until I had a smaller pool of people to target.

Did you consider being Vigged?

... or that...
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