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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Game Over! Town wins!)  (Read 147089 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #650 on: December 30, 2018, 05:14:16 am »

With joth, my suspicion basically boils down to me going 'let's imagine joth is scum. do his posts feel coherent with that?" and concluding that they do. His posts tend to be sensible and lengthy, and are missing the edge that town people who are wrong about stuff tend to have.

Here's an auto-generated voting history (no guarantee that the L-X annotations are correct, though I tried to fix them).

#54: jotheonah votes Robz888 (L-6)
#61: jotheonah votes Jimmmmm (L-5)
#161: jotheonah votes Dylan32 (L-3)
#174: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-4)
#224: jotheonah votes Jimmmmm (L-6)
#226: jotheonah votes silverspawn (L-4)
#280: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-4)
#331: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-3)
#352: jotheonah votes Jimmmmm (L-5)
#356: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-3)
#386: jotheonah votes Jimmmmm (L-2)
#489: jotheonah votes Galzria (hammer)
#534: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-5)
#555: jotheonah unvotes
#620: jotheonah votes UmbrageOfSnow (L-4)
#634: jotheonah votes Robz888 (L-3)

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #651 on: December 30, 2018, 05:15:41 am »

There might be zero scum in there.

Well, vote: joth let's see if this takes off.

Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #652 on: December 30, 2018, 05:34:35 am »

I'm going back and forth a bit on Dylan. Otherwise I agree with most of what silver says.

Vote: joth
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #653 on: December 30, 2018, 08:25:38 am »

There might be zero scum in there.
You could say this of literally any list that includes less than 10 players.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #654 on: December 30, 2018, 08:26:49 am »

With joth, my suspicion basically boils down to me going 'let's imagine joth is scum. do his posts feel coherent with that?" and concluding that they do. His posts tend to be sensible and lengthy, and are missing the edge that town people who are wrong about stuff tend to have.
Do joth's posts feel coherent with him being town?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #655 on: December 30, 2018, 08:50:59 am »

vote: joth

Sorry been super super busy will be more active after New Years lets hope.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #656 on: December 30, 2018, 08:54:33 am »

With joth, my suspicion basically boils down to me going 'let's imagine joth is scum. do his posts feel coherent with that?" and concluding that they do. His posts tend to be sensible and lengthy, and are missing the edge that town people who are wrong about stuff tend to have.

Here's an auto-generated voting history (no guarantee that the L-X annotations are correct, though I tried to fix them).

#54: jotheonah votes Robz888 (L-6)
#61: jotheonah votes Jimmmmm (L-5)
#161: jotheonah votes Dylan32 (L-3)
#174: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-4)
#224: jotheonah votes Jimmmmm (L-6)
#226: jotheonah votes silverspawn (L-4)
#280: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-4)
#331: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-3)
#352: jotheonah votes Jimmmmm (L-5)
#356: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-3)
#386: jotheonah votes Jimmmmm (L-2)
#489: jotheonah votes Galzria (hammer)
#534: jotheonah votes DatSwan (L-5)
#555: jotheonah unvotes
#620: jotheonah votes UmbrageOfSnow (L-4)
#634: jotheonah votes Robz888 (L-3)


This is a nothingburger case that's sort of hard to respond to, but I'll give it a try. I think there are definitely some things I've said and done that aren't consistent with me being scum.

One, why does scum!me hammer Galz? I've already said I was going to bed. I come back in the last few minutes of the day. Does scum!me really risk the heat from essentially quickhammering Galzria when he could achieve a no-lynch, which we had, even at that point, openly established was pro-scum, just by doing nothing? And Galzria in particular was reading me pretty towny and is a good player to have on your side, so it makes even less sense. That was a hard decision to make as town, but I can't see any explanation for me making it as scum.

The edge thing sounds like a gut read. I haven't been holding back. I have been trying to stay cognizant of my tendency to tunnel and trying to keep an open mind, so maybe that has made my posts less "edgy".

Quote from: silverspawn

So Dylan has a bunch of things that I think are more likely to come from town than scum. One is his treatments of the masons, first throwing suspicion then just now saying faust's narrative has been sorta convincing. Difficult to imagine scum who knows it's true from the start handling it that way.


Both Robz and I basically treated the Mason claim exactly the same way, first throwing suspicion and then coming around to it because of faust's claim. Weird that that's super towny for Dylan and not worth noting for Robz or me. It could just as easily be scum coming into the day thinking they could push a mason lynch through and then backing off when it looked like it wasn't working. I don't think it is that, because I know I'm not scum, but I don't think it's a town tell. It's null.
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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #657 on: December 30, 2018, 09:18:28 am »

With joth, my suspicion basically boils down to me going 'let's imagine joth is scum. do his posts feel coherent with that?" and concluding that they do. His posts tend to be sensible and lengthy, and are missing the edge that town people who are wrong about stuff tend to have.
Do joth's posts feel coherent with him being town?
Yes, unfortunately. But there are people who only feel consistent with town. In fact, that's most people.

There might be zero scum in there.
You could say this of literally any list that includes less than 10 players.
Yeah, but you're taking something literal which I obviously don't intend to be literal. The literal meaning of what I said was something like "based on my current reads, I assign an unusually high probability that every person who joth voted this game is town."

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #658 on: December 30, 2018, 09:20:54 am »

One, why does scum!me hammer Galz?
I'm pretty sure I'd hammer there as either alignment. Lynching town is worse than lynching no-one for sure, and you don't get any scum points for hammering town since you had to. It's a super safe play (you'll notice that I didn't find you scummy for doing it).

The edge thing sounds like a gut read.

it is.

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #659 on: December 30, 2018, 09:45:32 am »

Quote
Both Robz and I basically treated the Mason claim exactly the same way, first throwing suspicion and then coming around to it because of faust's claim. Weird that that's super towny for Dylan and not worth noting for Robz or me

That's not weird. Dylan did it first, you followed. You can debate this, buy my take was that doing it first is towny, doing it second nullish to scummy.

EFHW

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #660 on: December 30, 2018, 11:39:08 am »

Vote Count 2.5

UmbrageOfSnow (3): DatSwan, Robz888, Dylan32
Robz888 (4): faust, UmbrageOfSnow, jotheonah, LaLight
jotheonah (3): silverspawn, Jimmmmm, mcmcsalot

Not Voting (0)


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. D2 ends at 23:59 Czech time (5.59pm Forum Time) on Sunday 30th December. This is in just under 6.5 hours' time.

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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #661 on: December 30, 2018, 11:44:58 am »

It's still not a good case, but I haven't seen a better one.

jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #662 on: December 30, 2018, 12:26:34 pm »

I'll be at an MtG draft most of the day (including until deadline) but I'll try to check in on my phone.

I would urge people to consider the Robz case. I think it's the only one of these three wagons based on much of anything.

I'd switch back to snow to get a lynch through or if someone actually articulates a case that makes sense to me.

I would not switch to joth, even to avoid a no-lynch.

I'll be checking in periodically to answer questions if people have them and, if necessary, to claim at L-1. Hopefully that won't be necessary.
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Robz888

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #663 on: December 30, 2018, 12:31:17 pm »

Oh, there's a wagon against me! It's somewhat deserved, hell yes I've been buddying Joth, I was excited to have him back playing mafia.

When I sheeped his UoS vote, my post saying "Same" was not intending to indicate that I felt the same way he did about the other wagons, but that I too was about to be unavailable and just needed to park a vote somewhere. The Umbrage vote was somewhat random, and if I had thought about it for longer I probably would have gone somewhere else, but I was literally about to pull out of the driveway to begin a 10 hour drive.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Robz888

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #664 on: December 30, 2018, 12:32:27 pm »

I think I would like to go back to Vote: Jimmmmm. We should have lynched him yesterday.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #665 on: December 30, 2018, 12:51:18 pm »

There might be zero scum in there.
You could say this of literally any list that includes less than 10 players.
Yeah, but you're taking something literal which I obviously don't intend to be literal. The literal meaning of what I said was something like "based on my current reads, I assign an unusually high probability that every person who joth voted this game is town."
And who do you think is more likely to do that, town or scum?
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #666 on: December 30, 2018, 12:52:30 pm »

I think I would like to go back to Vote: Jimmmmm. We should have lynched him yesterday.
We have 5 hours left. Please do something useful with your vote.
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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #667 on: December 30, 2018, 01:00:42 pm »

There might be zero scum in there.
You could say this of literally any list that includes less than 10 players.
Yeah, but you're taking something literal which I obviously don't intend to be literal. The literal meaning of what I said was something like "based on my current reads, I assign an unusually high probability that every person who joth voted this game is town."
And who do you think is more likely to do that, town or scum?

scum, because town would hit scum just by accident if nothing else.

Last game I was scum, robz (?) suggested immediately that we don't bus at all. If this scum team is similarly opposed to bussing...

I mean, it's not a strong argument, but it's not quite nohting.

faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #668 on: December 30, 2018, 01:09:04 pm »

There might be zero scum in there.
You could say this of literally any list that includes less than 10 players.
Yeah, but you're taking something literal which I obviously don't intend to be literal. The literal meaning of what I said was something like "based on my current reads, I assign an unusually high probability that every person who joth voted this game is town."
And who do you think is more likely to do that, town or scum?

scum, because town would hit scum just by accident if nothing else.

Last game I was scum, robz (?) suggested immediately that we don't bus at all. If this scum team is similarly opposed to bussing...

I mean, it's not a strong argument, but it's not quite nohting.
It's really quite nothing. It's a weak argument that builds on other unsubstantiated reads to even work.
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Robz888

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #669 on: December 30, 2018, 01:41:08 pm »

I didn’t see vote count or deadline info, vote: Umbrage
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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #670 on: December 30, 2018, 02:23:26 pm »

There might be zero scum in there.
You could say this of literally any list that includes less than 10 players.
Yeah, but you're taking something literal which I obviously don't intend to be literal. The literal meaning of what I said was something like "based on my current reads, I assign an unusually high probability that every person who joth voted this game is town."
And who do you think is more likely to do that, town or scum?

scum, because town would hit scum just by accident if nothing else.

Last game I was scum, robz (?) suggested immediately that we don't bus at all. If this scum team is similarly opposed to bussing...

I mean, it's not a strong argument, but it's not quite nohting.
It's really quite nothing. It's a weak argument that builds on other unsubstantiated reads to even work.

weak * weak = very weak > nothing

Robz888

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #671 on: December 30, 2018, 02:50:50 pm »

So... I'm around. Anybody else?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #672 on: December 30, 2018, 03:00:20 pm »

I am now here, and will be from now until deadline.
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Robz888

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #673 on: December 30, 2018, 03:07:19 pm »

I know why Jo and LL are voting for me, but why is faust voting for me?
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Robz888

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #674 on: December 30, 2018, 03:07:58 pm »

Is your vote moveable, UoS?
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.
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