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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Game Over! Town wins!)  (Read 147181 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #625 on: December 29, 2018, 09:41:02 am »

I'm actually a little sick today and it affects my concentration, so I'll break this reread into small parts.

So far, joth is scum, dylan is town.

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #626 on: December 29, 2018, 09:52:07 am »

The deadline extension has been approved. New deadline is tomorrow night (Sunday 30th December 2018), 23.59 Czech time/17.59 forum time.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #627 on: December 29, 2018, 09:52:37 am »

Vote Count 2.4

UmbrageOfSnow (3): DatSwan, jotheonah, Robz888
Dylan32 (1): UmbrageOfSnow
silverspawn (1): LaLight
Robz888 (1): faust
Not Voting (4): mcmcsalot, Dylan32, silverspawn, Jimmmmm

D2 ends at 23:59 Czech time (5.59pm Forum Time) on Sunday 30th December. This is in just over 32 hours' time.
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faust

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #628 on: December 29, 2018, 11:08:17 am »

Request prods on LaLight, Dylan, mcmc, Jimmmmm
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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #629 on: December 29, 2018, 11:36:54 am »

@mcmcsalot, faust, Joth: were you guys (pretty sure you are all guys, apologies if wrong) misunderstanding my reasoning?

'you guys' is totally universal, I believe.

Not feeling my Jimm case anymore.

town on LaLight and DatSwan

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #630 on: December 29, 2018, 11:39:02 am »

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #631 on: December 29, 2018, 02:51:10 pm »

I'm actually a little sick today and it affects my concentration, so I'll break this reread into small parts.

So far, joth is scum, dylan is town.

I agree with you on half of that. I am home now, so I’m going to try and do some real re-reading. I appreciate everyone’s patience with my V/LA. And yes “Bird my flight” was a mobile posting error.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #632 on: December 29, 2018, 03:09:14 pm »

Votecount at the time:
silverspawn (2): faust, LaLight
UmbrageOfSnow (1): DatSwan
Dylan32 (1): UmbrageOfSnow
Not Voting (6): Robz888, mcmcsalot, Dylan32, silverspawn, jotheonah, Jimmmmm

it’s entirely possible I won’t have another chance to log in before deadline. I don’t like silver or Dylan lynches, so I’ll put my vote on vote: Umbrage in case we don’t have an extension and having my vote there helps us avoid NL.
vote: Umbrage for identical reasons

Previously...
Vote: SS

I would like to point out the large shift in ss’s posting language/format/content/attitude since the wagon in him grew to a size worth caring about. Indicative of self-preservation and possibly defensiveness.
Ash’s point about Silver is solid.

I think I'm still happy with my vote on Dylan. I am realizing Umbrage is quite an under scrutinized player today.

Ash and and galz being dead means me, Dylan, LL are the only off wagon folks.

I feel like we should really scrutinize the Galz wagon, but I also feel like one of LL or Dylan is very likely to be scum by POE.

Vote: Robz

Wouldn't want to actually scumread me or support Swan's weird case but let's just park this vote there since he doesn't like the other two options that he has also been fine with lynching the whole game.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #633 on: December 29, 2018, 03:35:11 pm »

I was just noticing in my reread that this is at least the second time Robz has immediately followed up a vote of mine with a vote for the same person and no additional analysis.

We have about 42 hours until deadline and it doesn't feel like we're close to a lynch. I'd like to get a prod request on Galzria.

The leading wagon is mcmcsalot and the case on him is completely nonexistent as near as I can tell. Like literally I read through the thread and none of the votes on him come with any hint of an explanation.

The next three wagon candidates are Dylan, DatSwan, and silver. Dylan and DatSwan seem to have stalled out.

So I guess I'm going with vote: silverspawn.

I'm ok with it. He's been sheeping unashamedly, he's on the weird mcmc wagon, he's voting for jokey reasons well after RVS is over. I think silverspawn is a fine day 1 lynch with a better than 50 percent chance of being scum.

Vote: SS
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #634 on: December 29, 2018, 03:52:25 pm »

And another one:

Vote: Jimmmm

Vote Count 1.6

mcmcsalot (1): Lalight
DatSwan (1): Dylan32
Dylan32 (2): UmbrageOfSnow, Jimmmmm
silverspawn (3): ashersky, mcmcsalot, Robz888
Jimmmmm (4): silverspawn, DatSwan, Galzria, jotheonah
Galzria (1): faust

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
D1 ends at 11am Czech time (5am Forum Time) on Thursday 20th December. That's in ~17 hours.


My vote should be on DatSwan.

Well then, Vote: Datswan



vote: josh for asking this question too early. Smells like scared scum.

Vote: silverspawn since I don’t believe this is scummy and Joth is far more easily explained as energetic returning player than scared scum.

If Silver isn't happening... Dylan, Jimmm, DatSwan, UoS are all fine by me. The only lynches I would quite actively oppose right now are Joth and mcmc, I guess.

Now that I re-read it seems like Robz has sort of been going out of his way to buddy and sheep me all game. Which is probably why I've had such a town read on him. I just totally fell for it.

I was only a mediocre player, recordwise, before I left, and now I'm hella rusty, so I feel like town!Robz sheeping me left and right like this doesn't make a lot of sense. But maybe scum!robz figured since he was the one who brought me into the game it would be easy to buddy me and have a permanent town ally. There's evidence of him doing the same thing in subtler ways with Mcmc ("we IC'd each other"), faust ("day 1 pass"), and Galzria.

My memory is that part of Robz's meta is mixing up his scum strategies so that he doesn't have an easily readable meta. And I can see him saying "this game, I'm going to try buddying".

I sort of love this theory, but I also think maybe I'm working too hard to make up a narrative. But what the heck, let's try vote: Robz
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LaLight

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #635 on: December 29, 2018, 04:29:21 pm »

Yeah, sounds good. vote: Robz
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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #636 on: December 29, 2018, 04:57:25 pm »

Unofficial Vote Count:

Robz888 (4): faust, UmbrageOfSnow, jotheonah, LaLight
UmbrageOfSnow (2): DatSwan, Robz888

Not Voting (4): mcmcsalot, Dylan32, silverspawn, Jimmmmm

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #637 on: December 29, 2018, 05:12:51 pm »

vote: jimmmm

I would not like to lynch Galzria.

I don’t believe Swan 100% but agree it would be a bizarre claim for scum to make.

There is one other option, which is to have the other Mason claim. Mason isn’t like a hugely powerful power. If we force a partner claim, we either double up on scum if Swan is lying or we get some ICs. Sure scum can NK one, but that’s a shot they’re not spending on a potential cop or doc.

Am I wrong? Say we lynch someone else and scum NKs Swan. Now his partner isn’t even an IC, they’re basically a VT. Double claim seems more valuable then.

Mh, this will be more interesting once we know Jim's alignment. Or once we know joth is scum, if he's scum.

Like, if Jim is scum, then this makes joth look good. If joth is scum, this makes Jim look good.

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #638 on: December 29, 2018, 05:17:23 pm »

Request prods on LaLight, Dylan, mcmc, Jimmmmm

Prods sent to Dylan, mcmc and Jimmmmm.

LL had already posted by the time I read your request.
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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #639 on: December 29, 2018, 05:26:33 pm »

This game is tough to get a feel for. I reread all of day 1 and still don't have anything resembling a strong case.

I'm not certainly not opposed to a robz lynch. Probably prefer joth, though.

Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #640 on: December 29, 2018, 07:10:13 pm »

I'm not certainly not opposed to a robz lynch. Probably prefer joth, though.
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #641 on: December 29, 2018, 07:57:34 pm »

This is Robz at L-2 right?
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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #642 on: December 29, 2018, 07:59:17 pm »

I'm not certainly not opposed to a robz lynch. Probably prefer joth, though.
This game is tough to get a feel for. I reread all of day 1 and still don't have anything resembling a strong case.

I'm not certainly not opposed to a robz lynch. Probably prefer joth, though.


Why don’t you guys like Snow?
Also why not vote for Joth if you prefer it?
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #643 on: December 29, 2018, 09:58:50 pm »

Forgot to put it in the VLA thread, but I did say here I would be VLA until new years.

My gut read on UoS is scum, but he's mostly been tunneling me the whole game, so it might be a little OMGUS.

I'm still skeptical of the Mason claim, however faust's posts from 527 to 547 do actually make the mason narrative for his and Swan's behavior actually seem plausible instead of just coming across like a totally stubborn and antitown willingness to take it through to a no lynch.

I'm not really a fan of the Robz wagon.  LL seems like he's done a ton of sheeping this game-continuing with his Robz vote. I can see Joth going either way depending on what I want to see when I read him, and there's the aforementioned skepticism about faust.

If it looks like it's going to come down to the two, I would prefer Vote: UmbrageOfSnow. I'm leaning slightly town on Robz, although if Joth is town, then his point on Robz does actually make sense. I would probably rather lynch Joth or LL over Robz though.
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silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #644 on: December 30, 2018, 04:41:12 am »

I'm not certainly not opposed to a robz lynch. Probably prefer joth, though.
This game is tough to get a feel for. I reread all of day 1 and still don't have anything resembling a strong case.

I'm not certainly not opposed to a robz lynch. Probably prefer joth, though.


Why don’t you guys like Snow?
Also why not vote for Joth if you prefer it?

Didn't want to vote until I was caught up fully.

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #645 on: December 30, 2018, 04:42:03 am »

Or rather, reread everything. It's not like I didn't read it the first time.

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #646 on: December 30, 2018, 04:52:40 am »

Lots of people suspecting masons, for some reason. I think no-one has pointed out that scum basically can't fakeclaim masons here because they don't know whether there's a UB, and if there was then the mason claim would totally not work. I mean, scum who doesn't understand probability could maybe be reckless enough to do it, but the second claimed mason is faust who has majored in mathematics, so that's no a thing.

Masons are town.

The three people who have voiced their suspicion are Dylan, then joth, then robz (correct me if it's also someone else). I think it makes Dylan town, but I'm not sure about the other two.

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #647 on: December 30, 2018, 04:55:00 am »

I just had a dream, that faust was Mason AND IC, but we lynched him and he was scum

This clearly shows your paranoia about faust as a player and his ability to be persuasive as scum

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #648 on: December 30, 2018, 04:56:36 am »

LaLight has very train-of-thought-y post sequences. I think that's towny.

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #649 on: December 30, 2018, 05:03:16 am »

Damn and that's already it.

So Dylan has a bunch of things that I think are more likely to come from town than scum. One is his treatments of the masons, first throwing suspicion then just now saying faust's narrative has been sorta convincing. Difficult to imagine scum who knows it's true from the start handling it that way. Another is his talk about the Jim wagon feeling towny, a third one is this post

Vote: DatSwan for a reason that I'm not gonna share right now.

(I know no-one is even debating dylan right now, but he's the only case where I can put my read into words)
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