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Author Topic: M120: Czech Mafia (Game Over! Town wins!)  (Read 147080 times)

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Swowl

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #375 on: December 19, 2018, 06:00:08 pm »

What are the chances of a 3M roll? If there’s a UB in play that did NOT auto-convert to Mason, should they claim and we lynch Swan?

What do you do if that happens and i flip mason?
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #376 on: December 19, 2018, 06:06:56 pm »

What are the chances of a 3M roll? If there’s a UB in play that did NOT auto-convert to Mason, should they claim and we lynch Swan?

What do you do if that happens and i flip mason?

Be very annoyed that such an unlikely coincidence happened which will presumably cause various people to claim that arguments based on math aren't reliable in the future.

But if a UB actually claims, what would happen is that you'd claim your partner, at which point we might actually postpone the lynch, since now scum is fairly allin.

silverspawn

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #377 on: December 19, 2018, 06:07:48 pm »

But very likely we flipped one M and have a mason pair.

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #378 on: December 19, 2018, 06:13:20 pm »

Okay, Vote: Jimmmm

Note to DatSwan: you should stop giving reads if you wish to preserve your partner's anonymity (unless you're doing a fake out).

interesting time for you speak up on the matter
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #379 on: December 19, 2018, 06:52:29 pm »

I feel the need to point out that if I were skum fake claiming I think one would be better fit to choose something other than a mason fake claim. Personally, I would of claimed 1 shot doctor in this spot as skum. It sets up for tomorrow to force a real doctor to have to out their results to explain why I am still alive, or if they existed, maybe they would even proc me in that spot, idk. But the mason claim, as we are here right now, would just be stupid. How does that play out?

1) I claim mason, don't claim partner.
2a) Real masons (assuming I am skum) could claim.
2b) The whole UB claim could happen, which (if I were skum) I would have to assume is at least moderately likely.
3) Either way it plays out, it will end up with me having to claim a partner.... which... if I were skum is pretty much game over for me at that point.

Now that all sounds like skummy defense for me saying if there is a UB they should not claim. It IS defense of me saying that  if there is a UB they should keep quiet... but I do not intend for it to be skummy.
The concept just leads to so many PRs outing themselves so early on. That is exactly what skum would want to push in this scenario. Exactly the opposite is what I am suggesting. I think in order from best to worse it goes:

1) lynch someone that is not me (or my partner)
2) lynch me
3) have the UB claim and go down that path.


I do not think that in this set up that skum would fake claim UB here. I get lynched, they kill partner at night, UB gets lynched tomorrow. Just the same, if there is a UB in the game, if they were to claim it would go the same - I get lynched, they kill my partner at night, UB gets lynched tomorrow. So of course SKUM WOULD WANT TO PROMOTE A UB CLAIM because it gives them one extra PR they know. I would much rather us either lynch someone that is not me and keep my partner and the UB unknown, or if you must, lynch me and at least there will be a unknown pair of masons left in the game if the UB exists. In both of those scenarios I am the only known PR that is does not make it to tomorrow - sort of a limiting the damage concept.

Damn this is a hard point to push from my current spot. Anyone at all in the game that sees the point I am making here?

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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #380 on: December 19, 2018, 06:58:36 pm »

Vote: Galz

Still prefer Dylan.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #381 on: December 19, 2018, 07:05:00 pm »

Ok. Well, the prior for masons is roughly 45%. scum could fake claim but probably won't. I also don't think DatSwan was guaranteed to be lynched.

So we shouldn't lynch him for sure. Maybe go Jim instead?

Jimmm could happen. It should be noted that if scum were going to fakeclaim Mason, this is exactly how they would do so - by refusing to announce their partner so as to not incriminate another player.


Yeah, but any sensible town would do it like this, too.

Yes, which is why I’m not insisting on trying to lynch him anyway. The claim itself, in this manner, is neither scummy nor townie.

I disagree. If scum claims Mason and survives for long enough, the partner/s will also have to claim.
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Swowl

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #382 on: December 19, 2018, 07:08:55 pm »

Ok. Well, the prior for masons is roughly 45%. scum could fake claim but probably won't. I also don't think DatSwan was guaranteed to be lynched.

So we shouldn't lynch him for sure. Maybe go Jim instead?

Jimmm could happen. It should be noted that if scum were going to fakeclaim Mason, this is exactly how they would do so - by refusing to announce their partner so as to not incriminate another player.


Yeah, but any sensible town would do it like this, too.

Yes, which is why I’m not insisting on trying to lynch him anyway. The claim itself, in this manner, is neither scummy nor townie.

I disagree. If scum claims Mason and survives for long enough, the partner/s will also have to claim.

I cannot imagine a scenario in which a skum claiming mason survives long enough in this game here that they would have a partner risk fake claiming instead of just accepting death.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #383 on: December 19, 2018, 07:09:40 pm »

Ok. Well, the prior for masons is roughly 45%. scum could fake claim but probably won't. I also don't think DatSwan was guaranteed to be lynched.

So we shouldn't lynch him for sure. Maybe go Jim instead?

Jimmm could happen. It should be noted that if scum were going to fakeclaim Mason, this is exactly how they would do so - by refusing to announce their partner so as to not incriminate another player.


Yeah, but any sensible town would do it like this, too.

Yes, which is why I’m not insisting on trying to lynch him anyway. The claim itself, in this manner, is neither scummy nor townie.

I disagree. If scum claims Mason and survives for long enough, the partner/s will also have to claim.

I cannot imagine a scenario in which a skum claiming mason survives long enough in this game here that they would have a partner risk fake claiming instead of just accepting death.

you know what I spoke too soon, I suppose I see your point.
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Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
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3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #384 on: December 19, 2018, 07:28:34 pm »

Vote Count 1.8

DatSwan (4): Dylan32, jotheonah, UmbrageOfSnow, mcmcsalot
silverspawn (1): ashersky
mcmcsalot (1): LaLight
Jimmmmm (3): silverspawn, Galzria, Robz888
Galzria (3): faust, DatSwan, Jimmmmm

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
D1 ends at 11am Czech time (5am Forum Time) on Thursday 20th December. That's in ~9.5 hours.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #385 on: December 19, 2018, 07:30:52 pm »

Vote: Jimmmmm
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #386 on: December 19, 2018, 07:31:08 pm »

vote: jimmmm

I would not like to lynch Galzria.

I don’t believe Swan 100% but agree it would be a bizarre claim for scum to make.

There is one other option, which is to have the other Mason claim. Mason isn’t like a hugely powerful power. If we force a partner claim, we either double up on scum if Swan is lying or we get some ICs. Sure scum can NK one, but that’s a shot they’re not spending on a potential cop or doc.

Am I wrong? Say we lynch someone else and scum NKs Swan. Now his partner isn’t even an IC, they’re basically a VT. Double claim seems more valuable then.
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Galzria

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #387 on: December 19, 2018, 07:58:39 pm »

vote: jimmmm

I would not like to lynch Galzria.

I don’t believe Swan 100% but agree it would be a bizarre claim for scum to make.

There is one other option, which is to have the other Mason claim. Mason isn’t like a hugely powerful power. If we force a partner claim, we either double up on scum if Swan is lying or we get some ICs. Sure scum can NK one, but that’s a shot they’re not spending on a potential cop or doc.

Am I wrong? Say we lynch someone else and scum NKs Swan. Now his partner isn’t even an IC, they’re basically a VT. Double claim seems more valuable then.

The advantage if Swan is scum is fairly obvious - it forces scum into revealing two players. This still relies on either one of them dying and flipping, or a cop investigating to reveal a guilty result, incriminating both. It's worth noting that scum is gifted a Godfather in this setup, so this could all go very wrong, and get very messy very quickly.

The advantage if Swan is town is a little more complex. The other Mason claiming wouldn't IC either of them - it would simply tie them together. As you note, they're essentially VT's at that point in that they aren't any real threat as a PR. Scum doesn't really have any incentive to kill them - especially if they think that there may be prolonged suspicion on the Masons. If they DID choose to kill one, it would immediately IC the other for the following day, and honestly there isn't much need for them to do that. So what you get if Swan is town and the other Mason claims is two VT's that likely don't get killed at night, and you can't really fully trust to actually be town and not scum. A cop could investigate them, but because of the existence of the Godfather, even that wouldn't completely clear the pair.

So.... meh. I don't think the advantages that you're thinking exist are as clear cut as it seems.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #388 on: December 19, 2018, 08:07:16 pm »

Okay, let's make this seem a bit less inevitable:

Vote: Galzria

I will check in once more before bed in a few hours.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #389 on: December 19, 2018, 08:24:38 pm »

unvote the jimm lynch is a coinflip. I do think the the mason should not claim purely based on the scenario that galz laid out.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #390 on: December 19, 2018, 08:43:13 pm »

unvote the jimm lynch is a coinflip. I do think the the mason should not claim purely based on the scenario that galz laid out.

I don’t think so. I’ve been finding him scummy all day.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #391 on: December 19, 2018, 09:31:15 pm »

unvote the jimm lynch is a coinflip. I do think the the mason should not claim purely based on the scenario that galz laid out.

I don’t think so. I’ve been finding him scummy all day.

Can you sum up the case, sorry if it’s been said.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

EFHW

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #392 on: December 19, 2018, 09:56:52 pm »


Vote Count 1.9

silverspawn (1): ashersky
mcmcsalot (1): LaLight
Jimmmmm (5): silverspawn, Galzria, Robz888, Dylan, jotheonah
Galzria (4): faust, DatSwan, Jimmmmm, UmbrageofSnow

Not voting (1): mcmsalot


With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
D1 ends at 11am Czech time (5am Forum Time) on Thursday 20th December. That's in ~7 hours. FYI, his probably the last vc until 4 a.m.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #393 on: December 19, 2018, 10:09:50 pm »

It's all about this:

Looking at what seem to have been the major lynch candidates, I think mcmc and Dylan are scummyish and DatSwan is Towny.

Scummy for a few reasons. One, it was early in the day to be talking about lynch candidates, which was basically silver's case:

There's only been one thing in this game that strikes me as legitimately scummy, and that's this post

Looking at what seem to have been the major lynch candidates, I think mcmc and Dylan are scummyish and DatSwan is Towny.

I'm still in the 'early day one' mindest, and regardless of how early it is, I suspect town is more likely to feel like that then scum. Conversely, scum is more likely to have an awareness of who the 'majjor lynch candidates' are.

Put differently, I think town is less likely to think of anyone as a major candidate.

But then faust actually asked a useful question for once.

Looking at what seem to have been the major lynch candidates, I think mcmc and Dylan are scummyish and DatSwan is Towny.
Any reason you put down mcmc as major lynch candidate and not silver (who has the same number of votes)?
No. I'll have a look at silver.
Two things about this.
(1) It was potentially scummy to make a list of major lynch candidates and arbitrarily include and not include two people who have exactly the same number of votes.
(2) Jimmmmm's follow-up on his look at silver is pretty perfunctory:

I'm null on silver.

Vote: Dylan

But the real case is just ... reread him. There's almost no useful contributions, but a lot of votes and just enough fluff and theory talk to not be a lurker. I feel like it's a textbook execution of a particular way of playing scum.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #394 on: December 19, 2018, 10:25:25 pm »

Look, it's not a slam dunk. But it's better than 50/50.

And I really don't know where Team Galz is coming from. They're also most of the members of Team Doesn't-Explain-Their-Votes.
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Robz888

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #395 on: December 19, 2018, 10:44:42 pm »

Jimmmm is fine, Dylan is also fine.

We do NOT need DatSwan's partner to claim, IMO.
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jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #396 on: December 19, 2018, 11:02:41 pm »

this is proooobably the wrong time for this but I AM drunk so, for olf times sake...

drunkAMA
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Dylan32

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #397 on: December 19, 2018, 11:15:08 pm »

Almost forgot to put it in thread, but I will be VLA from Christmas Eve through New Years Day, the holidays themselves V, in between very LA for working at a conference, but I might be able to at least read and stay kind of caught up.
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Forum Mafia Record - Wins: 14 - NM9, M97, RMM41, M99, M102, M104, M119, M126, RMM56, M133, M134, RMM58, RMM59, RMM61, RMM60; Losses 15 - RMM37, M89, M94, M95, M96, M100, RMM47 M109, M110, M120, M127, M129, M131, M132, M136; MVPs: 1 - NM9

Galzria

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #398 on: December 19, 2018, 11:15:50 pm »

this is proooobably the wrong time for this but I AM drunk so, for olf times sake...

drunkAMA

Home from work now. ‘Bout to start.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

jotheonah

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Re: M120: Czech Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #399 on: December 19, 2018, 11:21:26 pm »

this is proooobably the wrong time for this but I AM drunk so, for olf times sake...

drunkAMA

Home from work now. ‘Bout to start.

You ever have Old Forrester's Bourbon? It's my absolute favorite.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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