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Author Topic: M119: Towny Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 140696 times)

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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #850 on: November 13, 2018, 03:59:41 pm »

Well that looked like an exciting end to the day.
Well done everyone, shame to lose Space, but I think a good result overall. Good work WCD starting that wagon.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #851 on: November 13, 2018, 04:08:09 pm »

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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #852 on: November 13, 2018, 04:10:37 pm »

Vote: PPS
Wait what?

Yeah, if we lynch me today we get an IC again tomorrow!

Can you explain for the kid(s) on the short bus?
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classic Diddsian meddling
I never got to read what Didds said, but whatever she's saying, she's right.

EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #853 on: November 13, 2018, 04:12:20 pm »

Vote: PPS
Wait what?

Yeah, if we lynch me today we get an IC again tomorrow!
The value in IC is for scumhunting. If we plan to lynch you today, we won't get any value from your IC-ness until tomorrow because no scumhunting will happen today.
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #854 on: November 13, 2018, 04:13:00 pm »

Vote: PPS
Wait what?

Yeah, if we lynch me today we get an IC again tomorrow!
Crazy talk. An IC is good, but surely not worth a mislynch.
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #855 on: November 13, 2018, 04:17:05 pm »

Vote: PPS
Wait what?

Yeah, if we lynch me today we get an IC again tomorrow!
The value in IC is for scumhunting. If we plan to lynch you today, we won't get any value from your IC-ness until tomorrow because no scumhunting will happen today.
Exactly the same point as you made to my lynch faust day 1 suggestion. At least that plan involved a possibility of lynching scum.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #856 on: November 13, 2018, 04:34:30 pm »

I swear the jokes go so far over your guys' heads I can't even find them funny anymore.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #857 on: November 13, 2018, 04:35:03 pm »

But I was kind of hoping someone would sheep me, anyway.
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Swowl

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #858 on: November 14, 2018, 12:50:18 am »

Okie dokie. 2 days out of DL or so we have this ugly af vote count. (the coloring is not put in by LaLight, I have changed it for the purpose of illustrating this post based on info).

Vote count 2.3

SpaceAnemone (1):, Robz888
infangthief (1): Dylan32
EFHW (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
Dylan32 (2): 2.71828....., Awaclus,
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
WestCoastDidds (2): EFHW, infangthief
DatSwan (2): pingpongsam, hypercube


Then there is this Space Count 1 day later - about a day from DL:
Space count as of #735:

infangthief (1): Dylan32
EFHW (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
WestCoastDidds (4): EFHW, infangthief, hypercube, Awaclus
DatSwan (1): pingpongsam
pingpongsam (1): 2.71828.....
hypercube (3): WestCoastDidds, Robz888, SpaceAnemone
Not voting (2): SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds

From here:
Swan moves to Hypercube
Joseph moves to WCD
PPs moves to Hypercube
Joseph moves to Hypercube


Which leaves us at the below, a few hours from DL:
infangthief (1): Dylan32
EFHW (1): mcmcsalot
WestCoastDidds (4): EFHW, infangthief, hypercube, Awaclus
pingpongsam (1): 2.71828.....
hypercube (6): WestCoastDidds, Robz888, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan, pingpongsam, Joseph2302

Sorry for the long post, my intention is to make the VC's easy to reference for the points below.
From my PoV, there were two unknown players on the hypercube wagon at this point (WCD and Joseph).

- There is one viable wagon to use as defense at this point (WCD).

- WCD obviously is not going to switch to WCD. So, either WCD is Town following their wagon, or they are Skum and got stuck in a situation that they can't get out of. Because of the interactions between WCD and hypercube... I am strongly leaning Town on WCD at this point.

- Joseph could of switched to WCD, but chose to stay on hypercube. So, kind of the same thing (with the addition that I am strongly leaning Town on WCD now). Therefore, if Joseph was skum, they would of had to chose to stay on their skum buddy hypercube instead of trying to counter wagon WCD. The exception here would I guess be if the team is [hypercube, WCD, Joseph]... which I find highly unlikely. Because of this... I am dropping my previous read on Joseph, and for now taking them as a town read.

Now I get that that is a lot of assuming based on info without flips, which typically is not a good idea... but I pretty strongly believe in my logic to this point. It is because of that that I arrive at the concept of "all 6 at this point on hypercube were town".

From here a few very important things happen:
- EFHW claims intent to hammer
- PPS moves off of hypercube (bringing him to L-2)
- EFHW moves off of WCD to Dylan (as the only vote on Dylan)
- PPS follows EFHW to Dylan. This puts it at hypercube(5), WCD(3), Dylan(2)

Space then makes the pro play of the game thus far and claims, due to the dismantling of the hypercube wagon. This again brings up the point of triangles based on assumption of roles. We know PPS is town now, so their moves are read as so. The only other person moving around at this point is EFHW  - Who moves off of WCD when hypercube has dropped to L-2. This, to me at least, is super suspicious. They claimed intent to hammer, then there is a claim and counter claim, and then they randomly go and attempt to create a new wagon on Dylan? That is weird to me.

If EFHW is Town, WCD is Town, and hypercube is skum... why would this counter claim cause EFHW to not put hypercube at L-1? However, to be fair, if EFHW is skum.. why would they not either choose to do nothing, or accept that it is gonna be either Space or hypercube and either try for Space or buss hypercube? *That is a real question I think should be answered btw - Like... EFHW, what was your thought process on voting Dylan at this point so close to DL after there was a claim and a CC?*

All that being said, while now, at this point, I would in fact be OK with going for EFHW just to be sure. However, it should also be noted that while I do town read WCD at this point, that there are a multitude of skum teams that can be reasonably created that contain [hypercube, WCD, X].

Since we have the delayed flip, and correctly imo have used the vig shot, my pool currently exists as something like [EFHW] or [2.7, MCMC, Dylan]. The second grouping is strongly influenced by the vote counts of Day 1.

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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #859 on: November 14, 2018, 12:59:02 am »

Also, this post from hypercube just before the claims started, makes me feel additionally confident in my town read on WCD.

Swan coming to try and rescue WCD makes me feel better about our chances of finding scum there.

If they knew I am Town and WCD is Skum, they would never make this post. If they knew I am Town and WCD is Town, they would make this post. And I suppose, just to be fair, if I was skum with hypercube, they may also make this post... but either way it again would argue lots of town points awarded to WCD.
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Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #860 on: November 14, 2018, 03:04:01 am »

I moved to Dylan before the counterclaim.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #861 on: November 14, 2018, 03:10:08 am »

Scum!me would have voted WCD.
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #862 on: November 14, 2018, 03:59:27 am »

I think EFHW has continued to be very reasonable, on the whole.

But I think this could do with some more explanation:
Scum!me would have voted WCD.
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #863 on: November 14, 2018, 04:01:44 am »

And I continue to find DatSwan's long analysis posts a little perplexing. Like, if you're looking at who moved their vote where and when, at least include the points at which the various claims were made.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #864 on: November 14, 2018, 04:10:33 am »

I think EFHW has continued to be very reasonable, on the whole.

But I think this could do with some more explanation:
Scum!me would have voted WCD.
I should have said would have stayed on WCD. I agree with DatSwan's conclusion that WCD is town. Scum!me would have been happy on her wagon.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #865 on: November 14, 2018, 06:22:49 am »

I am busy for most of the day but hope to post up something good this afternoon. I am on forum time. If EFHW is scum I want to try to link no more than 2 likely partners. I also want to form a strong to weak list of potential scum players if EFHW is town.

I will admit that most of my analysis will be predicated on both WCD and Joseph being town. I will attempt to loom past that but some risk must be taken to limit the scope of the review to something more useful. I think the biggest question in this case is whether they can both be town because that would clearly make all other analysis failed.  Asked on yesterday’s outcome and my reads up to that point I think assuming one or both to be town is a reasonable course of action.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #866 on: November 14, 2018, 08:25:08 am »

I think EFHW has continued to be very reasonable, on the whole.

But I think this could do with some more explanation:
Scum!me would have voted WCD.

This post is extremely partnery. It’s a super vague defense of efhw while leading her to give some defense of herself.

And I continue to find DatSwan's long analysis posts a little perplexing. Like, if you're looking at who moved their vote where and when, at least include the points at which the various claims were made.

Also a scummy post. Nitpicking without acknowledging any of the actual content of datswans post. Scum does this all the time when it comes to big wall of text posts. Scum!fang knows everyone’s alignment so is ever so slightly less inclined to thouroughly read swans post and just wants to come away saying something about it is “perplexing” aka subtly saying scummy without making a case.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #867 on: November 14, 2018, 08:28:43 am »

I am busy for most of the day but hope to post up something good this afternoon. I am on forum time. If EFHW is scum I want to try to link no more than 2 likely partners. I also want to form a strong to weak list of potential scum players if EFHW is town.

When I get time I’ll do a full re-read for efhw partners but currently fang is top of my list, Dylan and awaclus are closely behind. Efhw’s strange move to Dylan could be a subtle attempt to bus, Dylan is in no danger so why not sit a vote on your partner.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

2.71828.....

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #868 on: November 14, 2018, 08:37:17 am »

Sorry I missed the end of the day and haven't done anything to start out today. Need to do a reread in light of the flips/IC that we have. PPS' play makes sense that I read him as scum when he is actually a PR.

Not sold on EFHW as scum still based on what I posted yesterday, but again- need to look back at things with the new info
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #869 on: November 14, 2018, 08:41:35 am »

Well now I want to reread 2.7 more than I did before because that’s a scummy post and mostly for the read justification on pps.
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #870 on: November 14, 2018, 09:30:08 am »

Well now I want to reread 2.7 more than I did before because that’s a scummy post and mostly for the read justification on pps.
Space tracked e and got that he targeted no one.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #871 on: November 14, 2018, 09:32:18 am »

I think EFHW has continued to be very reasonable, on the whole.

But I think this could do with some more explanation:
Scum!me would have voted WCD.

This post is extremely partnery. It’s a super vague defense of efhw while leading her to give some defense of herself.


I agree it has a buddying feel to it. I've noticed that other times during this game. It's so nice to have people who agree with you when you are all alone as town, I hate to question it, but he has been very quiet since he said he realized it's a marathon not a sprint.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #872 on: November 14, 2018, 09:35:06 am »

I am busy for most of the day but hope to post up something good this afternoon. I am on forum time. If EFHW is scum I want to try to link no more than 2 likely partners. I also want to form a strong to weak list of potential scum players if EFHW is town.

When I get time I’ll do a full re-read for efhw partners.
Can I just remind you that you've been in this place before about me, and I was town? It's happening again. PPS says "if" I am scum, "if" I am town. You say you're looking for my partners, like there is no if about me being scum.
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2.71828.....

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #873 on: November 14, 2018, 09:37:49 am »

Well now I want to reread 2.7 more than I did before because that’s a scummy post and mostly for the read justification on pps.
Space tracked e and got that he targeted no one.

That doesn't clear me though
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)
« Reply #874 on: November 14, 2018, 09:38:04 am »


I will admit that most of my analysis will be predicated on both WCD and Joseph being town.

I'm on board with the assumption re: WCD. But why Joseph? Because of Robz's read? Because the scum-reading of WCD was based on Joseph being scum? 
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