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Author Topic: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)  (Read 5340 times)

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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #650 on: November 08, 2018, 04:16:45 pm »

I found faust shady for defending EFHW so fully.

I was confused about the posting and thought she was the one who found him shady, too, so I unvoted. I haven’t moved my vote back to her yet because of the EFHW/Joseph argument swan made and need to read Joseph and know I will have more time tomorrow.

Although the WCD wagon of Fang, EFHW is reading all kinds of shady to me but I don’t think you’d both be scum on me...
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #651 on: November 08, 2018, 05:01:16 pm »

The more space pushes this wcd theory the more okay I am with voting for space.
So why don't you vote for Space?

Because efhw is scummier
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Awaclus

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #652 on: November 08, 2018, 05:22:01 pm »

I'm a little VLA (specifically LA rather than V) for the weekend.
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DatSwan

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #653 on: November 08, 2018, 07:14:41 pm »

Actually, vote: WCD.
The unvote on EFHW looks like she was looking for an excuse, any excuse, to get off the EFHW wagon. Like DatSwan said about the end of day 1.

So while i appreciate that you like my logic enough to apply it like this i would like to point out a difference.

My point on Joseph is based upon the premise that we know Robz is town and there is only one other viable wagon at the time of the switches.

In your scenario, WCD switched from EFHW to Robz, but they could of also of switched to Joseph to keep the wagons more even. This would suggest either WCD is town choosing between 2 unknown wagons or that both WCD and Joseph are skum.
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pingpongsam

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #654 on: November 08, 2018, 07:19:59 pm »

Actually, vote: WCD.
The unvote on EFHW looks like she was looking for an excuse, any excuse, to get off the EFHW wagon. Like DatSwan said about the end of day 1.

So while i appreciate that you like my logic enough to apply it like this i would like to point out a difference.

My point on Joseph is based upon the premise that we know Robz is town and there is only one other viable wagon at the time of the switches.

In your scenario, WCD switched from EFHW to Robz, but they could of also of switched to Joseph to keep the wagons more even. This would suggest either WCD is town choosing between 2 unknown wagons or that both WCD and Joseph are skum.

Vote: Datswan
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Joseph2302

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #655 on: November 09, 2018, 02:21:16 am »

Actually, vote: WCD.
The unvote on EFHW looks like she was looking for an excuse, any excuse, to get off the EFHW wagon. Like DatSwan said about the end of day 1.

So while i appreciate that you like my logic enough to apply it like this i would like to point out a difference.

My point on Joseph is based upon the premise that we know Robz is town and there is only one other viable wagon at the time of the switches.

In your scenario, WCD switched from EFHW to Robz, but they could of also of switched to Joseph to keep the wagons more even. This would suggest either WCD is town choosing between 2 unknown wagons or that both WCD and Joseph are skum.
Or WCD could be scum and know that it's two town wagons being pushed, so they don't mind either way.
I'm not saying that's the case, but it's a possibility that you neglected to mention
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hypercube

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #656 on: November 09, 2018, 03:27:29 am »

vote: DatSwan
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LaLight

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #657 on: November 09, 2018, 06:14:07 am »

Vote count 2.3

SpaceAnemone (1):, Robz888
infangthief (1): Dylan32
EFHW (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
Dylan32 (2): 2.71828....., Awaclus,
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
WestCoastDidds (2): EFHW, infangthief
DatSwan (2): pingpongsam, hypercube
Not voting (2): SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds

Robz888 is on the guillotine.
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends Sunday, 11th of November, at 10am
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #658 on: November 09, 2018, 08:15:52 am »

Actually, vote: WCD.
The unvote on EFHW looks like she was looking for an excuse, any excuse, to get off the EFHW wagon. Like DatSwan said about the end of day 1.

This is a pretty nonsensical reason for a WCD vote. If she so desperately needed a reason to unvote from EFHW's four-person wagon at #636, why was she the one who put it to four people just a short while earlier at #615 anyway?

The kind of vote-hopping you're looking to find is more likely to happen when someone joins a wagon in an early position, but then gets cold feet (or worried about their bus!) when other people make the wagon bigger later on.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #659 on: November 09, 2018, 08:17:49 am »

I don't see the justification for PPS and hypercube's recent moves to DatSwan, given that I think Swan is correct in his observation about Fang's logic being flawed.
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #660 on: November 09, 2018, 08:28:18 am »

@mcmc, you awarded early townpoints to Joseph because he talked about the town wincon, which is something that can be easily obtained by following the "Rusty Guillotine" link in the setup. How much of your subsequent reads have been coloured by the fact that you seem to be behaving as if Joseph is conf!town?

Also, you've pretty consistently supported an EFHW lynch, but in my experience she's the kind of player who is difficult to pin down, and a strong scum player. Given that she partially scumslipped last game, I think she'd be really on her guard this time to prevent it happening again so soon. Unless I'm seriously misremembering that game -- I haven't gone back to check due to limited lunch hour time.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #661 on: November 09, 2018, 09:05:52 am »

@mcmc, you awarded early townpoints to Joseph because he talked about the town wincon, which is something that can be easily obtained by following the "Rusty Guillotine" link in the setup. How much of your subsequent reads have been coloured by the fact that you seem to be behaving as if Joseph is conf!town?
I am townreading Joseph for his overall gameplay being extremely consistent with his town meta. Combine that with the fact that he cases against him have all been weak single post based cases that are easy for scum to make because town can make a scummy sounding post. So yes my reads are colored by my confidence in the fact that Joseph is town and some of the cases against him have come from scum. But that only informs a part of my reads on other players.

Also, you've pretty consistently supported an EFHW lynch, but in my experience she's the kind of player who is difficult to pin down, and a strong scum player. Given that she partially scumslipped last game, I think she'd be really on her guard this time to prevent it happening again so soon. Unless I'm seriously misremembering that game -- I haven't gone back to check due to limited lunch hour time.
Is there a question here? Yes efhw is a strong player. But I think her wagon movements around deadline yesterday were very indicative of scum not caring which wagon went through and hoping to the more favorable wagon at the time. She is a strong scum player because she is very non combative and keeps a level head so despite me continually pushing her lynch she hasn’t super defended herself. She tried voting for me and discrediting my case, but when I explained that my logic was sound she herself unvoted me and said she had forgot about that angle.

5 people have all voted efhw in the last few pages and yet without much defense from anyone she has fallen to 2 votes.

I am still actively forming reads on other players as well and I have a few other players that I find scummy and would support wagons of when in need of a lynch but o refuse to drop what I think is a solid case that no one can convince me is wrong because “it’s not happening”.
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hypercube

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #662 on: November 09, 2018, 09:26:06 am »

I don't see the justification for PPS and hypercube's recent moves to DatSwan, given that I think Swan is correct in his observation about Fang's logic being flawed.

I interpreted fang's comment as referring to WCD's unvote at #636. I don't think that this was a deliberate error by Swan but it points to Swan being eager to offer soft defences of WCD and EFHW.

I also don't like this post:

If Joseph is Town, they were the second viable wagon, and skum would want to have as many potential town wagons as possible given the plurality lynch. The "defense of EFHW" as people are putting it, is not a defense at all.
All I stated was that I would do the same thing as she if I were town in their position.


He starts off by reiterating that he isn't defending EFHW, he's just saying that the thing she did which people have been reading as scummy was actually something town would do. That counts as a defence to me. I don't think making a defence is necessarily bad, for example if you notice a logic error in someone's case you should point it out. To refuse to admit you are defending someone seems scummy, however.

All my reasoning is in the original post, but to simplify:
1) I do not think it can be Joseph!EFHW
2) I think it is likely that one of Joseph/EFHW are skum
3) I think it is more likely that Joseph is skum than EFHW

Conclusion: Joseph = skum, and as it can't be Joseph!EFHW, EFHW = Town


This is not to say that I am promoting the idea that if Joseph were ever to flip Town that EFHW must be skum. Just to get ahead of that before anyone insinuates it.


Then he goes on to say that he thinks that exactly one of Joseph and EFHW is scum. To me that would mean that you should be happy to lynch either, since 50% is really good odds at this point. Maybe you have a preference for one or the other, but to pick the one you think is more scummy and scumread them 100% and the other 0% seems wrong to me, and like the logic of someone who already knows everyone's alignments. He then backpedals and says that if Joseph is town that he wouldn't follow the logic of his own argument to think that EFHW is scum. So, overall my read of Swan is that D1 he didn't contribute anything substantial and today he's been making scummy arguments and hedging a lot.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #663 on: November 09, 2018, 09:29:32 am »

Given that she partially scumslipped last game, I think she'd be really on her guard this time to prevent it happening again so soon.
I scumslip almost every game. People almost never notice, like this past time.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #664 on: November 09, 2018, 09:30:29 am »

Actually, vote: WCD.
The unvote on EFHW looks like she was looking for an excuse, any excuse, to get off the EFHW wagon. Like DatSwan said about the end of day 1.

This is a pretty nonsensical reason for a WCD vote. If she so desperately needed a reason to unvote from EFHW's four-person wagon at #636, why was she the one who put it to four people just a short while earlier at #615 anyway?

The kind of vote-hopping you're looking to find is more likely to happen when someone joins a wagon in an early position, but then gets cold feet (or worried about their bus!) when other people make the wagon bigger later on.
My personal, completely unbiased, theory is that my voting her spooked her just a little.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #665 on: November 09, 2018, 09:31:55 am »

I don't see the justification for PPS and hypercube's recent moves to DatSwan, given that I think Swan is correct in his observation about Fang's logic being flawed.
Agree. DatSwan writes in a stream of consciousness way that can be hard to follow. Once I found the thread running through it, I didn't see anything scummy in what he said.
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Robz888

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #666 on: November 09, 2018, 09:57:33 am »

Vote count 2.3

SpaceAnemone (1):, Robz888
infangthief (1): Dylan32
EFHW (2): mcmcsalot, Joseph2302
Dylan32 (2): 2.71828....., Awaclus,
Joseph2302 (1): DatSwan
WestCoastDidds (2): EFHW, infangthief
DatSwan (2): pingpongsam, hypercube
Not voting (2): SpaceAnemone, WestCoastDidds

Robz888 is on the guillotine.
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 2 ends Sunday, 11th of November, at 10am

That's an ugly vote count!
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hypercube

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #667 on: November 09, 2018, 09:59:10 am »


5 people have all voted efhw in the last few pages and yet without much defense from anyone she has fallen to 2 votes.

I am still actively forming reads on other players as well and I have a few other players that I find scummy and would support wagons of when in need of a lynch but o refuse to drop what I think is a solid case that no one can convince me is wrong because “it’s not happening”.

I'm still willing to vote for EFHW. I'll be generally around this weekend and should be available for the deadline.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #668 on: November 09, 2018, 10:18:40 am »

She tried voting for me and discrediting my case, but when I explained that my logic was sound she herself unvoted me and said she had forgot about that angle.
Why do you assume the worst interpretation of my vote and unvote?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #669 on: November 09, 2018, 10:57:24 am »

She tried voting for me and discrediting my case, but when I explained that my logic was sound she herself unvoted me and said she had forgot about that angle.
Why do you assume the worst interpretation of my vote and unvote?
I did not mean to imply that interaction increased my scumread if you dramatically. Omgus is slightly scummy. I was more just explaining why you are difficult to lynch and thus a strong scum player in response to space’s somewhat vague musings about you. It is well within your scum meta to be a level headed non defensive player.

So I am not assuming, I am making an educated guess using multiple points of limited data.
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Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
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pingpongsam

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #670 on: November 09, 2018, 12:41:28 pm »

The last sentence of Datswan’s post I found overtly scummy. It tries to seem like a result of some analysis and insight when in reality it appears to be a scum communication organizing two potential mislynches for today.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #671 on: November 09, 2018, 01:42:15 pm »

So, I finally had enough time to read Joseph...and I just don't see him being very scummy. He was mostly getting flack for talking about the set up, then defending himself for talking about the set up.

I disagree with his position that the Robz wagon has to have scum on it, especially because there were so many singleton votes at the time, but is that necessarily scummy? It seems like we are looking for ways to narrow down the choices.

And now I am curious about why Space was so insistent that I engage with him, because I had said my thoughts about his wagon earlier and am now pretty sure I wasn't missing anything.

Here is my summary of Joseph:
57-59 scum knows more than town, random vote, guillotine players could be IC
61 The IC would be because the town win condition is to have 2 mafia dead + 1 on the guillotine.
So if we have 2 mafia dead, if we guillotine someone and the game doesn't end, then they must be town
71 asks for sample role PMs
73- what is scum wincon?
84- so the scum win condition is "You win when there are as many or more living Mafia as there are living non-Mafia or if nothing can prevent the same. (Someone on guillotine is still alive.)"
So on guillotine counts as alive for town, but effectively as dead for scum (if there's only 1 left)
128- I’m town because I knew the town wincon
129 - vote chairs (now hyper) for setting up Faust
203- hasn’t had much to say
204 vote PPS (no reason)
229, 234 chairs(now hyper) is best option even if not a great option
235- discussion of the vig role with PPS, when the vig uses the shot, they can claim the role and maybe out scum
240 vig declares privately
319- hyper’s WCD case is weak.
320- he has been unhelpfully inactive, but its not a good idea to vote for him
321, 326 D1 isn’t thrilling so he has been disengaged
342 vote hyper
349 oh yeah, chairs is hyper
350 we just need a majority to Lynch
387 answers Faust question about how he knew town wincon - says its #61 (yep)
389- says he likes setup talk over random D1 chatter
392- we are all bored with D1
393- we’re not trying to think through the setup like some D1s
402 votes Robz, says EFHW is more towny then Robz and that he is green text
407 will be around for deadline
430 would vote for space, still prefers Robz
431 but won’t switch to space until votes come off of him
434 like Robz, he doesn’t do day one, but he has tried to be around

D2
500 If Robz is town, has wagon has to have scum on it
501 so e, PPS, Joesph, WCD, Space, Fang. Since he is town, it wasn’t that scum was trying to avoid a scum lynch
502 Robz wagon was the scummiest. Space may have been a better option
520 maybe Space/Hyper team
521 votes Space
532 offers to claim
572 IC weighs in! Hooray!
573 Im town because I said the town wincon
583 as scum, he usually dies D1or D2, except last time he go to lylo
584 he isn’t feeling well and is behind as a result
609 questions DatSwan’s analysis that leads to him being scum
610 sees EFHW and Space as more scummy of the 4 mentioned by swan (Joseph, Robz, Space, EFHW)
611 votes EFHW because one of the D1 wagons was scum
614 maybe swan’s case was a Swan/EFHW team
655 Adds to Swan’s analysis about Fangs’s case on WCD.
Logged
I have a t-shirt that says "Writing well is the best revenge" which is nothing but a lie. An essential life skill, yes. Revenge, not so much.

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #672 on: November 09, 2018, 02:22:47 pm »

Combine that with the fact that he cases against him have all been weak single post based cases that are easy for scum to make because town can make a scummy sounding post.

For reference, my personal case on Joseph uses wagon analysis based on the fact I know I'm town and suspect that one of Joseph or e is scum, so that's not actually anything to do with any single questionable statement he's made.

Also, you've pretty consistently supported an EFHW lynch, but in my experience she's the kind of player who is difficult to pin down, and a strong scum player. Given that she partially scumslipped last game, I think she'd be really on her guard this time to prevent it happening again so soon. Unless I'm seriously misremembering that game -- I haven't gone back to check due to limited lunch hour time.
Is there a question here?

Nope, just an observation to see whether you end up agreeing, or what you ended up volunteering on the back of it.

But I think her wagon movements around deadline yesterday were very indicative of scum not caring which wagon went through and hoping to the more favorable wagon at the time.

Okay, so here's a breakdown of EFHW's movements relating to Robz and Joseph:
#357 Joins the Robz wagon.
#404 Moves to Joseph.
#414 Back to Robz (The only intervening vote is Joseph moving away from Robz onto hypercube).
#437 Back to Joseph (A few posts after WCD moved from EFHW to Robz).
Stays there till EoD1.

At the same time, you were already voting for her from#301, and stayed on her till the end of the day, minus a handful of posts where you hopped onto my wagon and back. It looks from here like a really strong tunnel on EFHW that you're justifying with later behaviour.

You claimed that you had originally voted for EFHW because you had a strong townread on WCD, and suspected scum of pushing her. The wagon in question was faust, Awaclus, EFHW, and then hypercube. Obviously, we never get much out of Awaclus, but what did you feel about hypercube, given that he also displayed a lot of changes of vote at the end of D1?
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

SpaceAnemone

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #673 on: November 09, 2018, 02:31:29 pm »

So, I finally had enough time to read Joseph...

Yeah.. in general, it's not that helpful just to summarise what a player says if you're not then going to analyse it and say what was townie and what was scummy. It clogs up the thread, and it's not as if anyone's going to be able to trust anyone else's take on a third party.

I just don't see him being very scummy. He was mostly getting flack for talking about the set up, then defending himself for talking about the set up.

Okay, that's what I was looking for. It states your position on him, and means that if you later want to go back and vote him, we have something to point to that says you're being inconsistent.

And now I am curious about why Space was so insistent that I engage with him, because I had said my thoughts about his wagon earlier and am now pretty sure I wasn't missing anything.

Well I'm sorry if I missed it, but where exactly did you post your thoughts on Joseph's play itself, or on your thinking about how townie/scummy he might be? I searched through all your game posts for the name "Joseph" and found nothing that seemed relevant.
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Town games: M84(L), M85(W), M86(L), M87(W), M88(L), M90(L), M92(W), M94(L), M97(L), M99(W), M100(L), M104(W), M107(W), M110(L), M112(L), RMM37(L), RMM40(D), RMM41(L), RMM43(L), RMM47(W), ZM23(W).
Scum games: M89(D), M108(L), NM8(W&MVP), NM10(L)   Mod: NM9, RMM38, RMM42.   Pronouns: they/them

Joseph2302

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #674 on: November 09, 2018, 02:40:57 pm »

So, I finally had enough time to read Joseph...

Yeah.. in general, it's not that helpful just to summarise what a player says if you're not then going to analyse it and say what was townie and what was scummy. It clogs up the thread, and it's not as if anyone's going to be able to trust anyone else's take on a third party.

I just don't see him being very scummy. He was mostly getting flack for talking about the set up, then defending himself for talking about the set up.

Okay, that's what I was looking for. It states your position on him, and means that if you later want to go back and vote him, we have something to point to that says you're being inconsistent.

And now I am curious about why Space was so insistent that I engage with him, because I had said my thoughts about his wagon earlier and am now pretty sure I wasn't missing anything.

Well I'm sorry if I missed it, but where exactly did you post your thoughts on Joseph's play itself, or on your thinking about how townie/scummy he might be? I searched through all your game posts for the name "Joseph" and found nothing that seemed relevant.
Joseph is town. Should be obvious
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Mafia Stats:
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins
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