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Author Topic: M119: Towny Mafia (D3!)  (Read 4917 times)

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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #625 on: November 08, 2018, 03:34:36 am »

@infangthief - Why did you move from Joseph to the Robz wagon? Sorry if you have already explained this.
I moved at the point when the Joseph wagon seemed to have completely stalled, down to just you and me on it, and it seemed that the choice was between Robz and Space. I preferred Robz mostly because I was starting to distrust faust.
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #626 on: November 08, 2018, 03:41:55 am »

e, at #423 (with further clarification at #426) you said you were considering moving from Robz to Space, but didn't because you didn't think the Space wagon was viable.
Did you consider moving to Joseph at that point?

(The wagons were Robz 4, Joseph 3, EFHW 3 at that point.)
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #627 on: November 08, 2018, 04:03:57 am »

Datswan put together a good wagon analysis that resulted in a Joseph vote. The whole time I was reading it was confirming my EFHW vote.
When I read it, I thought: there are some odd things in here. (Probably off topic, but a triangle of four people? Space being a 'distant fourth' even though the IC is part of the triangle?)
DatSwan is working hard to dispel the suggestion that he is partnery towards Joseph.
And yes he is quite clear that he doesn't want to implicate EFHW. Is that just so that he can reach a Joseph vote by the end?
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #628 on: November 08, 2018, 04:14:16 am »

WCD, I would like to ask you two questions, however:

1. How does the term 'fuming magician' relate to DatSwan in #256?
2. Why were you on Robz at the end of the day, when you said you'd prefer to vote EFHW?

1. I answered the first above (odd reference from a prior game that only I remembered).
2. When mcmc showed up near the end of the day campaigning for her, I said I didn't think there would be enough critical mass to lynch her that close to deadline, plus faust was defending her which I couldn't figure out. I didn't want to be stubborn on my orginal vote for her in a way that might put us in jeopardy of not lynching anyone. I also didn't have a terribly good case on her as much as a feeling about the way she had interacted with PPS and then me during the day, so I wouldn't have been able to make a case to sway anyone else.
I think one of the lessons I learned from NM13 was, if you're making a case, don't make 'swaying other people' a primary objective.
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #629 on: November 08, 2018, 04:22:32 am »

Datswan put together a good wagon analysis that resulted in a Joseph vote. The whole time I was reading it was confirming my EFHW vote.

Yeah, the analysis and conclusion didn't match in my opinion.

Same.
They match because his theory is that scum were avoiding voting Joseph.
I sort of agree, but he went a very roundabout route to get there.
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #630 on: November 08, 2018, 04:26:43 am »

Of the 4 mentioned by DatSwan {me, Robz, Space, EFHW}, my thoughts are this:

Me- definitely town
Robz- definitely town
EFHW- the wagon on EFHW dissipated quickly, and that could be a scummy sign. Especially as given that Robz wagon jumped quickly, it seems unlikely that me, Robz & Space are all town. So I think scum may have jumped onto Robz to avoid the possibility of an EFHW lynch
Space- still think scummy

Space, is your vote analysis machine able to test out Joseph's assertion about EFHW's wagon there? My memory is it reached 3 votes max and ended the day on 2 votes. Did it dissipate and come back or something?
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #631 on: November 08, 2018, 04:42:44 am »

I feel like if WCD is projecting herself into a space where she's trying to think as if she's Hyper deciding what to do as scum, she's much more likely to think about advice from scumbuddies when she has experienced being scum. So although I'm finding her scummy in a bunch of other ways (like her ongoing total inability to talk about how scummy Joseph is), I'm inclined to treat this as possible townslip.

Well there's something new.
One relevant data point is that in NM13 WCD most definitely considered the idea of scum having advice from scumbuddies.
And I had not noticed her avoidance of discussing Joseph.
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #632 on: November 08, 2018, 04:54:12 am »

Sorry, lots of posts in a row there. I'm caught up now. Seems like Joseph is dividing opinion a lot today, even more than yesterday. I need to think more about Space too. I continue to think EFHW is being reasonable, though the long DatSwan post was a bit strange.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #633 on: November 08, 2018, 05:28:34 am »

I feel like if WCD is projecting herself into a space where she's trying to think as if she's Hyper deciding what to do as scum, she's much more likely to think about advice from scumbuddies when she has experienced being scum. So although I'm finding her scummy in a bunch of other ways (like her ongoing total inability to talk about how scummy Joseph is), I'm inclined to treat this as possible townslip.

Well there's something new.
One relevant data point is that in NM13 WCD most definitely considered the idea of scum having advice from scumbuddies.
And I had not noticed her avoidance of discussing Joseph.

Hmm.. the NM13 info may be relevant, then, thanks!

This was the post where I first pointed out the weird lack of opinion WCD had on Joseph:

New observation: WCD isn't expressing any opinions about Joseph at all, barring putting him in the middle of her long list of people "on the fringes".

The only direct interaction has been her question to him in response to his assertion of there being at least on scum in a group of six. That was a factual "what am I missing?" sort of question, rather than any kind of a scum-hunting motive-questioning post like she's aimed at other people. It's the kind of thing that could be a newbie partner-tell.

And this was her response:

Youíre right. I didnít see a very good reason for his wagon on D1 because it was either based in set up related content or people who played with him before...both of which Iím not terribly facile at yet. And then today I went down that old game rabbit hole and havenít had much bandwidth to think about or reread anyone other than Fang. Iíll get to Joseph soon, I hope, and until then Iím following other folks reads.

She has made 11 posts since then. At least two of them were chatter rather than gameplay, but she's also commented, at least in small ways, on hypercube, fang, FHW, mcmc, Awaclus, Datswan and Dylan in that time. She quoted something e said with a comment that just said "same". No PPS in the list unless you count that e quoted PPS in the thing WCD quoted. Anyway, the lack of Joseph is still very conspicuous.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #634 on: November 08, 2018, 06:09:45 am »

Of the 4 mentioned by DatSwan {me, Robz, Space, EFHW}, my thoughts are this:

Me- definitely town
Robz- definitely town
EFHW- the wagon on EFHW dissipated quickly, and that could be a scummy sign. Especially as given that Robz wagon jumped quickly, it seems unlikely that me, Robz & Space are all town. So I think scum may have jumped onto Robz to avoid the possibility of an EFHW lynch
Space- still think scummy

Space, is your vote analysis machine able to test out Joseph's assertion about EFHW's wagon there? My memory is it reached 3 votes max and ended the day on 2 votes. Did it dissipate and come back or something?

My "vote analysis machine" is just a script that makes a long list of all possible vote count states throughout the game.. the analysis is just in my head. Anyway, here's a breakdown of the key votes affecting the EFHW wagon:

Dylan voted EFHW at #104, and sat there for the entire rest of D1.
WCD joined in second place at #160, and left at #256 (moving to Swan).
Mcmc voted EFHW at #301, taking her back up to two votes.
WCD moved back pretty much straight away, at #304, taking the wagon to three votes.
The wagon sat at 3 votes for a long while, until WCD moved off to take the 5th spot on Robz's tail at #432.
Mcmc moved onto me very briefly at #467, but then back to EFHW at #471.

In summary, the only people who voted EFHW at all in D1 were Dylan, mcmc and WCD, and the only one of them to join the Robz wagon was WCD.

So... Joseph is only correct if losing two votes in the space oc 35 posts counts as a quick dissipation, which I'd argue it does not, especially since one of them came back so quickly, so there's only a three-post window of time in which his opinion made sense. Otherwise the wagon "dissipated" by losing a single vote to Robz. Compare this to the fact that the wagon on Joseph went from five people at #404 down to three people at #417, and I'd say he's missing a whole lot of the bigger picture about what was going on at that time.

I can post a bunch of vote state snapshots, but they tend to clutter the thread a lot, and people occasionally seem to get frustrated about me doing so.. but if there's support for that to make it easier for everyone else, let me know.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #635 on: November 08, 2018, 09:17:23 am »

@infangthief - Why did you move from Joseph to the Robz wagon? Sorry if you have already explained this.
I moved at the point when the Joseph wagon seemed to have completely stalled, down to just you and me on it, and it seemed that the choice was between Robz and Space. I preferred Robz mostly because I was starting to distrust faust.

Very interesting...can you explain a bit more about distrusting Faust. I know itís kind of beside the point, but Iím curious since he was coming off shady to me at that point.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #636 on: November 08, 2018, 09:24:22 am »

I feel like if WCD is projecting herself into a space where she's trying to think as if she's Hyper deciding what to do as scum, she's much more likely to think about advice from scumbuddies when she has experienced being scum. So although I'm finding her scummy in a bunch of other ways (like her ongoing total inability to talk about how scummy Joseph is), I'm inclined to treat this as possible townslip.

Well there's something new.
One relevant data point is that in NM13 WCD most definitely considered the idea of scum having advice from scumbuddies.
And I had not noticed her avoidance of discussing Joseph.

The biggest difference between them and now regarding scum is that I thought they had day chat. Then I learned that isnít a usual thing.

I am not avoiding Jospeh discussion, I just havenít had time. If someone can do a reread summary, that would be awesome. If not, I can do it tomorrow. D1 I didnít much like the cases on him since they seem to be mostly set up related. But since then he hasnít done much to make himself more town.

EFHWís apparent distrust of Faust, though, resionates with me so unvote

Iím getting the feeling again that there are lots of people not really playing. I wonít make a list this time, but Iím wondering where they are and why they are not around
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #637 on: November 08, 2018, 09:51:28 am »

EFHWís apparent distrust of Faust, though, resionates with me so unvote

I think you are confusing me with fang.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #638 on: November 08, 2018, 10:09:30 am »

EFHWís apparent distrust of Faust, though, resionates with me so unvote

I think you are confusing me with fang.

The avatars are similar enough...
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #639 on: November 08, 2018, 10:23:42 am »

The more space pushes this wcd theory the more okay I am with voting for space.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #640 on: November 08, 2018, 10:47:42 am »

The more space pushes this wcd theory the more okay I am with voting for space.

On this topic, question for those who played RMM50: what were the clues that outed WCD as non-town-aligned in that game?
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #641 on: November 08, 2018, 10:57:25 am »

The more space pushes this wcd theory the more okay I am with voting for space.

Which of my three conflicting observations on WCD are you referring to?

1) She's got this big gap in her play when it comes to Joseph, which I find a possible partner-tell. It's pretty much unarguable that she's talking about almost everyone except Joseph.

2) She may have townslipped, which is utterly opposite in its meaning to point 1. It's why I've currently got her coloured in as "possible town" on my personal multicoloured vote counter, though the fact that Fang says she talked about scumbuddies giving advice in NM13 could mean I'm just reading too much into it.

3) She's the only person to have switched from EFHW's wagon to Robz's, which was an observation I made in response to Fang's question about Joseph's assertion about the D1 EFHW wagon.

Sure, the third one is not a "theory", so this is the least likely one of the things you might be referring to, but since you already seem oblivious to the fact I've posted two other conflicting observations, I think it's also quite possible that you've decided I'm scummy (or decided I'm someone to push for a mislynch on), and aren't actually reading the details anyway.

PPE: 1
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #642 on: November 08, 2018, 12:04:58 pm »

Itís actually all three. Itís that I canít figure out why you are so fixated on wcdís play in the first place and that your continued observations feel like a lot of ďlooks like Iím doing tons of workĒ without coming to really solid conclusions.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #643 on: November 08, 2018, 01:08:38 pm »

Itís actually all three. Itís that I canít figure out why you are so fixated on wcdís play in the first place and that your continued observations feel like a lot of ďlooks like Iím doing tons of workĒ without coming to really solid conclusions.
It looks to me like they are actually doing work. You've been very critical of other people's work without doing much of your own.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #644 on: November 08, 2018, 02:14:57 pm »

EFHWís apparent distrust of Faust, though, resonates with me so unvote

I think you are confusing me with fang.

Yep, sorry. I was on my phone.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #645 on: November 08, 2018, 02:17:54 pm »

The more space pushes this wcd theory the more okay I am with voting for space.

On this topic, question for those who played RMM50: what were the clues that outed WCD as non-town-aligned in that game?

I'm not sure how much it matters, but I had never been unaligned or seen anyone do it, so I just assumed that I was town. Also, my role description led me to believe that I could be converted to town if Bart found me which is why I was so curious about her.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #646 on: November 08, 2018, 03:26:18 pm »

The more space pushes this wcd theory the more okay I am with voting for space.
So why don't you vote for Space?
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #647 on: November 08, 2018, 03:29:07 pm »

I'm going to vote for DatSwan.

vote: DatSwan
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #648 on: November 08, 2018, 03:51:29 pm »

@infangthief - Why did you move from Joseph to the Robz wagon? Sorry if you have already explained this.
I moved at the point when the Joseph wagon seemed to have completely stalled, down to just you and me on it, and it seemed that the choice was between Robz and Space. I preferred Robz mostly because I was starting to distrust faust.

Very interesting...can you explain a bit more about distrusting Faust. I know itís kind of beside the point, but Iím curious since he was coming off shady to me at that point.

I can (and will do sometime), but probably you also want to be clear in your own mind about why you found him shady.

Especially so in the light of this:
EFHWís apparent distrust of Faust, though, resionates with me so unvote
(I'll overlook the confusion between me and EFHW - I take it that you were prepared to unvote whoever shared your distrust of faust.)
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #649 on: November 08, 2018, 04:09:22 pm »

Actually, vote: WCD.
The unvote on EFHW looks like she was looking for an excuse, any excuse, to get off the EFHW wagon. Like DatSwan said about the end of day 1.
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