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Author Topic: M119: Towny Mafia (Game Over!)  (Read 140753 times)

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2.71828.....

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #600 on: November 07, 2018, 09:31:02 am »

Datswan put together a good wagon analysis that resulted in a Joseph vote. The whole time I was reading it was confirming my EFHW vote.

Yeah, the analysis and conclusion didn't match in my opinion.

Also, I will expand on my Dylan case on sometime. More people should vote him.
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Awaclus

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #601 on: November 07, 2018, 09:53:18 am »

Vote: Dylan
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infangthief

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #602 on: November 07, 2018, 11:20:58 am »

Well I reread e's day 1 and I'm glad I did, because there's quite a bit in there that I'd forgotten about. Might ask some things later.

For now, my reread has reminded me about dentists.
e, how were the dentist and the wisdom teeth?
I need to have fillings next week and week after, not looking forward to that. I can't remember whether fillings or extractions are worse, I've heard the wisdom teeth are pretty bad though.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #603 on: November 07, 2018, 11:26:20 am »

@infangthief - Why did you move from Joseph to the Robz wagon? Sorry if you have already explained this.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #604 on: November 07, 2018, 11:34:18 am »

Datswan put together a good wagon analysis that resulted in a Joseph vote. The whole time I was reading it was confirming my EFHW vote.

Yeah, the analysis and conclusion didn't match in my opinion.

Same.

Datswan, can you share some of your thinking about how you got from the analysis to the conclusion?

Hey, Awaclus! Long time no see...why Dylan?
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pingpongsam

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #605 on: November 07, 2018, 11:35:36 am »

Vote: Dylan

Vote: Dylan I was thinking he deserved some review but I am covered up lately and it looks like e is going to do it. I may rescind my vote if his case proves flimsy.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #606 on: November 07, 2018, 12:08:24 pm »

Datswan put together a good wagon analysis that resulted in a Joseph vote. The whole time I was reading it was confirming my EFHW vote.

Yeah, the analysis and conclusion didn't match in my opinion.

Same.
They match because his theory is that scum were avoiding voting Joseph.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #607 on: November 07, 2018, 12:17:01 pm »

I just reread infangthief and find him towny. I don't know his skill level at faking towniness, but right now he's an asset in the game and I don't want to lynch him. I looked back at WCD's case, and I don't read any of her examples as scummy, and the rest is based on one previous game they played together. I don't know if her case is scummy, but I disagree with it.
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Awaclus

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #608 on: November 07, 2018, 12:47:10 pm »

Hey, Awaclus! Long time no see...why Dylan?

Why not Dylan?
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Joseph2302

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #609 on: November 07, 2018, 01:21:26 pm »

Datswan put together a good wagon analysis that resulted in a Joseph vote. The whole time I was reading it was confirming my EFHW vote.

Yeah, the analysis and conclusion didn't match in my opinion.

Also, I will expand on my Dylan case on sometime. More people should vote him.
I agree. How did DatSwan go from that analysis to me being scum?
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Joseph2302

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #610 on: November 07, 2018, 01:24:03 pm »

Of the 4 mentioned by DatSwan {me, Robz, Space, EFHW}, my thoughts are this:

Me- definitely town
Robz- definitely town
EFHW- the wagon on EFHW dissipated quickly, and that could be a scummy sign. Especially as given that Robz wagon jumped quickly, it seems unlikely that me, Robz & Space are all town. So I think scum may have jumped onto Robz to avoid the possibility of an EFHW lynch
Space- still think scummy
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Joseph2302

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #611 on: November 07, 2018, 01:25:03 pm »

Actually since I don't see how the 3 D1 wagons of me, Robz & EFHW can be 3 town wagons, I'm better off with Vote: EFHW
Having 3 wagons on D1 and them all being town people is unlikely
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hypercube

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #612 on: November 07, 2018, 01:28:55 pm »

EFHW then leaves to lead wagon to tie Robz and Joseph at 4-4. Important bit - I do not think this is skummy. If I were Town in EFHW's position here I would do the same thing 100% of the time. It forces votes to be put through because of the plurality lynch component, which will of course generate info to look back on.

This is an interestingly subtle defense of EFHW: you assign her a much more towny motivation for moving her vote than the actual reason she gave:

Crap. WCD shouldn't bus here. Assuming she knows that, they aren't both scum. I'm regretting leaving the WCD wagon now. Sorry faust. vote: Joseph

which as has been pointed out was kind of nonsensical.

PPE 2
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Robz888

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #613 on: November 07, 2018, 02:31:43 pm »

I am still feeling Space, though EFHW is not a crazy choice.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #614 on: November 07, 2018, 03:23:42 pm »

EFHW then leaves to lead wagon to tie Robz and Joseph at 4-4. Important bit - I do not think this is skummy. If I were Town in EFHW's position here I would do the same thing 100% of the time. It forces votes to be put through because of the plurality lynch component, which will of course generate info to look back on.

This is an interestingly subtle defense of EFHW: you assign her a much more towny motivation for moving her vote than the actual reason she gave:

Crap. WCD shouldn't bus here. Assuming she knows that, they aren't both scum. I'm regretting leaving the WCD wagon now. Sorry faust. vote: Joseph

which as has been pointed out was kind of nonsensical.

PPE 2
I agree DatSwan's defences could be indicative of a DatSwan/EFHW scum team
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #615 on: November 07, 2018, 04:51:51 pm »


It looks like more folks are feeling the EFHW scum vibe now. vote: EFHW

I'm going to be swamped at work tomorrow, so I may not be around until Friday. Apologies.
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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #616 on: November 07, 2018, 05:57:31 pm »

Datswan put together a good wagon analysis that resulted in a Joseph vote. The whole time I was reading it was confirming my EFHW vote.

Yeah, the analysis and conclusion didn't match in my opinion.

Same.

Datswan, can you share some of your thinking about how you got from the analysis to the conclusion?

Hey, Awaclus! Long time no see...why Dylan?


Pretty much this...
Datswan put together a good wagon analysis that resulted in a Joseph vote. The whole time I was reading it was confirming my EFHW vote.

Yeah, the analysis and conclusion didn't match in my opinion.

Same.
They match because his theory is that scum were avoiding voting Joseph.

If Joseph is Town, they were the second viable wagon, and skum would want to have as many potential town wagons as possible given the plurality lynch. The "defense of EFHW" as people are putting it, is not a defense at all.
All I stated was that I would do the same thing as she if I were town in their position.

All my reasoning is in the original post, but to simplify:
1) I do not think it can be Joseph!EFHW
2) I think it is likely that one of Joseph/EFHW are skum
3) I think it is more likely that Joseph is skum than EFHW

Conclusion: Joseph = skum, and as it can't be Joseph!EFHW, EFHW = Town


This is not to say that I am promoting the idea that if Joseph were ever to flip Town that EFHW must be skum. Just to get ahead of that before anyone insinuates it.


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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #617 on: November 07, 2018, 06:57:53 pm »


@WCD, have you played scum in any of your games on this site so far? (Sorry, I know it's lazy not to dig through the recent ones myself to check, but it's also past midnight and I need sleep...)

No, although in Dirk Gentley I was an unaligned gray text person.

Okay, that's interesting, because the one thing you conspicuously didn't say in your earlier musings about a possible scum!Hypercube was that he'd have the support of some likely-more-experienced scumbuddies guiding him in what to say and how to act. Text below for the benefit of anyone who's finding scroll/search difficult:

Hyper, how do you think he would be different if he was scum? Our first game with him is present in my thoughts, too, and I don't think he has been quite so aggressive in trying to question folks and then call them out as he was in that game.  I agree with the faust discussion feeling pretty pro-town but if Fang knows faust is not scum (since if he is scum he knows who the scum are) then he has nothing to lose in making the suggestion and he knows enough to know that we aren't gonna lynch faust D1 so it likely wouldn't backfire.

I feel like if WCD is projecting herself into a space where she's trying to think as if she's Hyper deciding what to do as scum, she's much more likely to think about advice from scumbuddies when she has experienced being scum. So although I'm finding her scummy in a bunch of other ways (like her ongoing total inability to talk about how scummy Joseph is), I'm inclined to treat this as possible townslip.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #618 on: November 07, 2018, 07:27:13 pm »

EFHW then leaves to lead wagon to tie Robz and Joseph at 4-4. Important bit - I do not think this is skummy. If I were Town in EFHW's position here I would do the same thing 100% of the time. It forces votes to be put through because of the plurality lynch component, which will of course generate info to look back on.

This is an interestingly subtle defense of EFHW: you assign her a much more towny motivation for moving her vote than the actual reason she gave:

Crap. WCD shouldn't bus here. Assuming she knows that, they aren't both scum. I'm regretting leaving the WCD wagon now. Sorry faust. vote: Joseph

which as has been pointed out was kind of nonsensical.

PPE 2
It is not nonsensical! I got a strong scum vibe when WCD voted Robz, which made me want to get off his wagon. I guess I could have gone back to voting her, but like others I was trying to consolidate onto a wagon that might go through. This is another way of saying the same thing DatSwan did - it's better to have more than one strong wagon going.

I'll reread hypercube next.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #619 on: November 07, 2018, 07:28:53 pm »

Actually since I don't see how the 3 D1 wagons of me, Robz & EFHW can be 3 town wagons, I'm better off with Vote: EFHW
Having 3 wagons on D1 and them all being town people is unlikely
This is completely illogical. We have had three town wagons at once lots of times. And we have only your word that you are town, anyway, so this reasoning is useless for everyone else.
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EFHW

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #620 on: November 07, 2018, 07:32:03 pm »

vote: WCD
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SpaceAnemone

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #621 on: November 07, 2018, 07:46:09 pm »

In response to Swan's Joseph case, I have a bunch of my own reasons for thinking he's quite scummy.

First, though, just so as not to confuse newbies, please note that the thing Swan does by saying "Joseph!EFHW" to indicate a Joseph-EFHW scumteam is not standard notation and will wind up players like silverspawn or me :-P The much more standard thing is to use the "!" notation to talk about a version of a player, like town!Space or SK!Joseph, where the property goes before the exclamation mark, and the player's name goes after.

Anyway, I have some wagon analysis reasons for thinking that scum!Joseph is a strong possibility, but nothing very damning yet. Most recently, for a lot of early D2, I had e, Joseph and Robz on my tail, and the wagon stalled. Other people had expressed interest yesterday, and I think scum would have pushed my wagon more had there not already been one scum in the mix. I'm far more inclined to think it's Joseph than e, but I would be very surprised if they're both town.

In early D1, faust and I were voting for Joseph for a long while without the wagon taking off. I think Joseph is someone who's quite easy to push at when he's town, so if we have scum!Joseph then I think his buddies might have been aware of this and worried about bussing because it risked pushing him to far. Conversely, hypercube and Fang are the two that made his later D1 wagon take, so if they flip as scum then I'd think it's good evidence for town!Joseph. It's an interesting possible correlation, but not one I can use for very useful conclusions right now.

I've just also realised that hypercube used to be chairs.. I'm afraid my rolling-vote-count script just asserts that "chairs" is a variant spelling/nickname of "hypercube" for this game, so I only see hypercube's name there now. Apologies if I do more wagon-gazing and get the subbed-in/subbed-out names mixed up.
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Dylan32

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #622 on: November 07, 2018, 10:55:33 pm »

Busy day today, but I'm here and caught up, but I'm gonna have to reread some of the arguments and stuff that came up when I actually have time to think through it.
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Robz888

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #623 on: November 07, 2018, 11:28:35 pm »

Blah, I know I am doing a terrible job paying enough attention to this game, which was fine before I was an IC--not caring is how I prove I'm town!--but it's pretty bad now. I'm sorry. It does not help that there are several players unfamiliar to me and I'm having trouble keeping them straight. Maybe we should just lynch one of them...
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Robz888

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Re: M119: Towny Mafia (D2!)
« Reply #624 on: November 07, 2018, 11:28:54 pm »

(This was a drunk suggestion, if you can't tell.)
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