I am doing some ISOs from a VCA perspective trying to figure out who would generate a lot of info from a flip... then sorta realized that it is way less important than usual because we have to wait a whole extra day for said flip. So, instead, I am just looking at things from a broad stroke sort of view. This comes with some "assumptions", which I know can be bad, but I want to bounce them off the wall with everyone.
It is important to remember that Skum, regardless of where they were wagon-wise, were acting under the assumption that Town would not gain info of a player's alignment until tomorrow. This is important for my theory. I think that Skum's obvious play on early days given this setup would be to spread wagons out as much as possible. This gives them the advantage of WIFOM from the delayed flip, combined with the assurance of the lynch because it plurality by default.
That pretty much breaks down to = I think skum would want to have Town vs Town wagons going on in early days (duh, I know.. stick with me for a sec).
Based on that premise, the first things that jump out to me are:
1) The dissipation of the Joseph wagon
2) The fact that the Joseph wagon never really came back - as I would suspect if Robz and Joseph were both town it would of been held closer.
3) And to back up those points, I combine in the obvious statement that skum will want to be spread out on wagons, as they always do.
At 2.5 hours to DL it read...
Vote count 1.7
Joseph2302 (3): infangthief, faust, hypercube
EFHW (3): Dylan32, mcmcsalot, WestCoastDidds
Dylan32 (1): Robz888
Awaclus (2): DatSwan, SpaceAnemone
Robz888 (4): 2.71828....., pingpongsam, Joseph2302, EFHW
mcmcsalot (1): Awaclus
That checks out. 3 wagons on [Joseph, EFHW, Robz]. Town!Robz is off-wagon, while both Joseph and EFHW are on Town!Robz.
-WCD switches from EFHW to Robz (making EFHW@2, Joseph@3, Robz@5)
-That triggers the EFHW switch from Robz to Joseph (making it EFHW@2, Joseph@4, Robz@4).
The above points are important to me because WCD switching could be done to protect either EFHW/Joseph, or it could be a Town switch. That is kind of a sub-point I want to get out there.
EFHW then leaves to lead wagon to tie Robz and Joseph at 4-4. Important bit - I do not think this is skummy. If I were Town in EFHW's position here I would do the same thing 100% of the time. It forces votes to be put through because of the plurality lynch component, which will of course generate info to look back on.
35 minutes out we are here...
Vote count 1.8
Joseph2302 (3): infangthief, hypercube, EFHW
EFHW (2): Dylan32, mcmcsalot
Dylan32 (1): Robz888
Awaclus (1): DatSwan
Robz888 (5): 2.71828....., pingpongsam, Joseph2302, WestCoastDidds, SpaceAnemone
mcmcsalot (1): Awaclus
SpaceAnemone (1): faust
... and from here there are a lot of switches back and forth from multiple players... but the whole time the only viable wagon continues to be Robz. The other potential wagons would of been Space, EFHW and Joseph.
The final vote count looked like this:
Vote count 1.final
Joseph2302 (3): EFHW, faust, hypercube
EFHW (2): Dylan32, mcmcsalot
Dylan32 (1): Robz888
Awaclus (1): DatSwan
Robz888 (6): 2.71828....., pingpongsam, Joseph2302, WestCoastDidds, SpaceAnemone, infangthief
mcmcsalot (1): Awaclus
Whatever... My summary is that I think the triangle between [Robz, Joseph, Space, EFHW] is odd. Space is a distant fourth in my opinion. I think EFHW would do most of their shit as either alignment. And, I think that a lot of signs point to Joseph being avoided when (if they are town) I would assume skum would want to have them running at a more competitive wagon.
So..
Vote: Joseph