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[Hydrad]

Hey! I'm not dead. thats great.

[Hydrad]

ok. so there is still a chance that there is an SK and gkrieg didn't shoot. Thats not what completely what I believe right now tho. If there is  no SK it does paint datswan pretty badly though.

[SpaceAnemone]

ok. so there is still a chance that there is an SK and gkrieg didn't shoot. Thats not what completely what I believe right now tho. If there is  no SK it does paint datswan pretty badly though.

I mean, it's also possible that there's an SK and it's Swan.

[SpaceAnemone]

ok. so there is still a chance that there is an SK and gkrieg didn't shoot. Thats not what completely what I believe right now tho. If there is  no SK it does paint datswan pretty badly though.

I mean, it's also possible that there's an SK and it's Swan.

Actually, scratch that... it's very unlikely we have an SK left.

Chairs was a traitor, and I think it very unlikely that we have a one-person scum-team plus traitor, so I think that means there have to be at least two scum-team people left. For there to be Two scum-team people left and an SK left means three non-town out of the five of you left alive, meaning from my perspective one of Galz, Morgrim and Hydrad has to be some flavour of scum on top of EFHW and Swan. That just seems less likely to me.

[Swowl]

What is the basis of your townread on Galzria?

DatSwan - Why are you alive?

I don’t get it? I am alive bc i am alive and my Town read on Galz is because i visited n2 and i didn’t die.

So did you visit anyone last night?

Yeah I did... I targeted chairs and I got the confirmation that I absorbed energy... so not really sure what to make of that. I was dead wrong on my read. I was fairly certain given the just my overall reads of the situation that it was gonna end up being EFHW and GK. Obviously I was wrong.

My line of reasoning for my choice actually leads me into a larger point so I am going to put it in a next post.


PPE: the next post is kind of what space just pointed out.

[Swowl]

I chose Chairs because I thought they were town of the options.
I also was assuming the skum team would be consisting of EFHW and GK.
IF the skum team was EFHW and GK, they would never kill inside [Swan,Chairs] because they want to keep that group of 4 as large as possible.
So, my thought was, hopefully to IC Chairs today... or at least make it so the choice was Chairs!Swan or EFHW!GK... as chairs would have to be town in the situation and I would have to be alive I thought it was a good idea.

Now instead we are here so... yeah.

[Swowl]

Next, to add onto what Space just said about traitor and all that.

I also agree that I think it makes it less likely that there is an SK in the game. More likely there started a 2 man skum team and they had the ability to recruit the traitor to make it a 3 man team. I am a little unsure on this part... but I think 3 skum, plus a SK, so 4/14 would be a little high on the skum side of things wouldn't it?

Whatever that aside... we can go ahead and assume that skum chose to NOT kill Chairs last night, so they had to die by some other means.

Chairs claimed to of targeted Morgrim on N1 and get a town result. Now they could of done that as skum, knowing Morgrim is town, just for a safe claim, or it could of been skum helping skum. OK cool.. but then both Chairs and GK die at night.

That just makes no sense to me if the team was Swan!EFHW. We all knew who was to be looked at - pretty much everyone had conceded yesterday to skum being within [EFHW, Chairs, GK, Swan]... so why would skum team consisting of 2 players there kill off a town player in that same group? Especially, when they could of killed someone like Galz and gotten rid of the shielding stuff.

If the Masons were skum - they would not kill Chairs. But they sure as hell would kill GK. Also, the point about Chairs linking them together would help them if they are skum because they assumedly control the kills. So without a lynch on Chairs, he probably wasn't going to flip. Which would bring up... why wouldn't they want to push chairs yesterday (if the masons are town) to get ahead of the situation.

[Swowl]

Another thing.
Chairs in their claims (while they did not have the result) I do not ever claimed who they targeted on N2. Which is super super weird that no one pushed that.

[Swowl]

Another thing.
Chairs in their claims (while they did not have the result) I do not ever claimed who they targeted on N2. Which is super super weird that no one pushed that.

Chairs in their claims (while they did not have the result) I do not *think* ever claimed who they targeted on N2. Which is super super weird that no one pushed that.
[/quote]

[Swowl]

So yeah. I think it is most likely Hydrad!Morgrim. I know that sounds crazy but I can't find a more realistic option.

It started Hydrad!Morgrim
They found Chairs on some night (not sure how that happened with all the kills, that is the one kink in the theory)
Last night GK did their 50-50 vig on Chairs, flipped good and killed them.
Morgrim!Hydrad killed GK because he was the towniest of the 4 suspected players, and really had the only threatening role (as they would know chairs is skum).

If they got what they wanted and there was only one death at night and it was the one they laid on GK, then we would wake up as 7 (assuming 4 Town - 3 Skum). All they would have to do at this point is get me or EFHW lynched over chairs and it is game over.

I concrete this imo with the mindset that I think it is borderline impossible that Galz and Space's claims were given to them as fake claims. This would essentially remove the 2 lead roles in the show from the game.

So if Galz and Space must be town (imo), the only other realistic skum teams must consist of [Hydrad, Morgrim, EFHW, Swan]. As Hydrad and Morgrim CANNOT be skum with Swan or EFHW, it creates two options:

1) EFHW!Swan
2) Morgrim!Hydrad

Regardless of my knowledge of my own role, the actions of last night alone would lead me to believe Morgrim!Hydrad.
Also, I was very much trying to get EFHW lynched yesterday. Just throwing that in there.

[Swowl]

ok. so there is still a chance that there is an SK and gkrieg didn't shoot. Thats not what completely what I believe right now tho. If there is  no SK it does paint datswan pretty badly though.

I mean, it's also possible that there's an SK and it's Swan.

Actually, scratch that... it's very unlikely we have an SK left.

Chairs was a traitor, and I think it very unlikely that we have a one-person scum-team plus traitor, so I think that means there have to be at least two scum-team people left. For there to be Two scum-team people left and an SK left means three non-town out of the five of you left alive, meaning from my perspective one of Galz, Morgrim and Hydrad has to be some flavour of scum on top of EFHW and Swan. That just seems less likely to me.

Assuming both you and Galz are town... this could potentially make sense if it is EFHW as SK and Masons are skum. I guess also makes sense if I were SK... but [insert I am not SK quote here].

[Swowl]

Galz - did you proc last night?

[Swowl]

Space, who did you target to motivate/RB?

I didn't want to take the risk, since my power seems pretty much a net zero gain, and motivating scum could have been a disaster, as could RBing town, so I did nothing again. I nearly targeted the masons, but I verified that it would not have given them an extra shot, so I thought there was no upside. I would have targeted you (Galz) in order to try to spread protection to more townies, but I didn't want to risk RBing you, and you were the only person I felt confident in my townread on after the claims.

I was pretty sure by the start of the night phase that chairs was scum -- I even noted in my QT that he's the only possible scum on the D1 lynch once I'd coloured you and the masons green. Good shot gkrieg :-) (Assuming that's how that played out!).

I'm still reasonably confident that Swan must be scum -- even moreso now that we've seen a genuine vig flip, since he insisted he wasn't the one who killed either of the WV people who already died, making silver's death due to actual WVing more likely.

I also wrote in the night that I thought EFHW was possibly more likely to be town than gkrieg, so it's kind of handy that scum have taken one half of that balance away.

So yeah: my best guess is that EFHW and Swan are the two others.

I have no response to your point on silver's death. Like.. I really am trying to come up with a way to explain it but I can't. But they didn't target me.

What was your thought process on not targeting a mason last night?

[Swowl]

Galz - did you proc last night?

I take this back - unless you proced someone that died you should probably not state whether you did or not.

[Hydrad]

ok. so there is still a chance that there is an SK and gkrieg didn't shoot. Thats not what completely what I believe right now tho. If there is  no SK it does paint datswan pretty badly though.

I mean, it's also possible that there's an SK and it's Swan.

Actually, scratch that... it's very unlikely we have an SK left.

Chairs was a traitor, and I think it very unlikely that we have a one-person scum-team plus traitor, so I think that means there have to be at least two scum-team people left. For there to be Two scum-team people left and an SK left means three non-town out of the five of you left alive, meaning from my perspective one of Galz, Morgrim and Hydrad has to be some flavour of scum on top of EFHW and Swan. That just seems less likely to me.

ah you make a good point. I didn't notice it was a traitor chairs. That changes my views a decent amount.

[EFHW]

Another thing.
Chairs in their claims (while they did not have the result) I do not ever claimed who they targeted on N2. Which is super super weird that no one pushed that.

Chairs in their claims (while they did not have the result) I do not *think* ever claimed who they targeted on N2. Which is super super weird that no one pushed that.

[/quote]
He targeted e!

[EFHW]

Revised actions and targets

N0:
Chairs chose a player to secretly vote for. This seems different from the voting weirdness we noticed

N1:
iguana t'd ?? 50%Tracker, 50%WV. Result: ?? May have died from weak visiting. No breadcrumb.
ashersky t'd ?? with ??. Result: ?? If he chose RB, maybe he targeted gkrieg. If he chose bodyguard, maybe that is how he died. Some indication he might have chosen Galzria.
WCD t'd no one. She didn't have any powers yet.
e! t'd ?? with probability manipulator. Result: ??. He may have targeted someone without probability in their role, targeted silver, been roleblocked, or targeted scum and they aren't saying.
Space claimed that silver targeted them N1 with loud WV. Result: silver lived. No breadcrumb. We know the last two possible actions did not happen, so 50%WV, 50%no target.
Space targeted no one.
DatSwan t'd ashersky with WV. Result: DatSwan absorbed energy and lived.
EFHW t'd silver with Motion Detector. Result: yes
gkrieg t'd silver with 50% vig. Result: Didn't miss, but silver didn't die.
Chairs chose to secret vote who?
Galz t'd no one with healing. t'd ?? in search of Lydia.
Morgrim t'd iguana. Result: town. Meant next result should be false.
Hydrad took no action.

N2:
silver t'd ??  25%loud WV, 75%passive role, no target (breadcrumbed DatSwan) Result: unknown, but might be why silver died.
Space t'd silver with 50%RB, 50%Motivator. Result: unknown
DatSwan t'd Galz with WV. Result: DatSwan absorbed energy and lived.
EFHW t'd silver with MD+. Result: yes and flavor is female.
gkrieg t'd silver with 50% vig. Result: Missed and lost vote for D3.
chairs t'd ??.
Galzria t'd Hydrad, Morgrim and gkrieg for Doctoring. Result: Not needed.
Hydrad t'd silver. Result: Town. But should have received "scum" as result.
Morgrim took no action.

[EFHW]

Another thing.
Chairs in their claims (while they did not have the result) I do not ever claimed who they targeted on N2. Which is super super weird that no one pushed that.

Chairs in their claims (while they did not have the result) I do not *think* ever claimed who they targeted on N2. Which is super super weird that no one pushed that.

He targeted e!
[/quote]
Or at least, that's what he told us he did.

[EFHW]

So yeah. I think it is most likely Hydrad!Morgrim. I know that sounds crazy but I can't find a more realistic option.

It started Hydrad!Morgrim
They found Chairs on some night (not sure how that happened with all the kills, that is the one kink in the theory)
Last night GK did their 50-50 vig on Chairs, flipped good and killed them.
Morgrim!Hydrad killed GK because he was the towniest of the 4 suspected players, and really had the only threatening role (as they would know chairs is skum).

If they got what they wanted and there was only one death at night and it was the one they laid on GK, then we would wake up as 7 (assuming 4 Town - 3 Skum). All they would have to do at this point is get me or EFHW lynched over chairs and it is game over.

I concrete this imo with the mindset that I think it is borderline impossible that Galz and Space's claims were given to them as fake claims. This would essentially remove the 2 lead roles in the show from the game.

So if Galz and Space must be town (imo), the only other realistic skum teams must consist of [Hydrad, Morgrim, EFHW, Swan]. As Hydrad and Morgrim CANNOT be skum with Swan or EFHW, it creates two options:

1) EFHW!Swan
2) Morgrim!Hydrad

Regardless of my knowledge of my own role, the actions of last night alone would lead me to believe Morgrim!Hydrad.
Also, I was very much trying to get EFHW lynched yesterday. Just throwing that in there.

I looked at the Hydrad/Morgrim scum team hypothesis, and from the information we have it could really go either way. I don't see how you are so sure about it. What makes you think they found chairs? How is you wanting to lynch me relevant to your argument about Morgrim/Hydrad?

[SpaceAnemone]

What was your thought process on not targeting a mason last night?

What good would have come of it? I confirmed that I couldn't give them a shot if their pool of shots is depleted as they said it was, so there was no active benefit. I also know that there's some weirdness that let the masons get two townie results in the first place, and on the off-chance that scum can retarget powers onto themselves, I really didn't want to give them a double shot.

[Swowl]

What was your thought process on not targeting a mason last night?

What good would have come of it? I confirmed that I couldn't give them a shot if their pool of shots is depleted as they said it was, so there was no active benefit. I also know that there's some weirdness that let the masons get two townie results in the first place, and on the off-chance that scum can retarget powers onto themselves, I really didn't want to give them a double shot.

I was along the lines of if you can't reload them, then either you do nothing to them or you block them. And if they are town then they have nothing to block so it doesn't matter. But yeah.. there are outside elements I suppose.

[Galzria]

I’m going to have to schedule some actual time for this tomorrow or Thursday - I keep opening it up and having 10 or 15 minutes... which just hasn’t been enough to actually participate.

[Swowl]

So, until people get back I am gonna continue to build this case:

Sorry for completely vanishing when the world needed me most. The work project went well.

Phone posting right now so don’t expect anything too long or juicy, but here are my thoughts.

1) Galz was partially right and partially wrong - I do have a cop ability. I get two shots, one yielding the correct result and one yielding an incorrect result. I was not told which one would be the correct one though. Night one I targeted iguanaiguana because I was almost 100% sure he was town and thought that the result would tell me which cop I had left, the correct one or the incorrect one. Copping Iguana returned town, so I assumed that I had the incorrect one left. I copped silver last night, and again got a town result, which makes no sense.

2) I’m curious to know how many scum are left. Based off my cop results, something tells me that everything might not be as it seems with the alignments we’ve been getting from LaLight. Unless my copping ability is wrong or one of silver/iguana was a godfather of sorts, one of them had to be scum.

3) The info from above makes me question whether or not I can correctly make reads on who silver thought was scum yesterday based off the stuff silver said. I still think there’s a possibility that he was actually scum.

4) Galz is giving me scum vibes, as is chairs and maybe EFHW.

Response to 1) First off this would make perfect sense from skum disappearing and not confirming Galz's theory prior to deadline. After that they don't have to do any work. Someone else already laid the groundwork for their fake claim, they don't even have to be the one to do it. It is perfect. Secondly, I am *assuming* that skum does actually have the ability to mess with results so they threw in the SS part... or maybe they were setting it up as defense in case anyone ever got a result on them.

Response to 2) Knowing that there is a traitor in the game - saying this as skum makes a lot of sense. Trying to suggest that that there is already a dead skum that flipped town.

Response to 3) Same as #2.

Response to 4) Perfect triangle at the time. Their skum partner + Galz + lurksauce.


If both detective fake claims were given to skum, it is really not that hard to imagine that they pulled this off.

[Hydrad]

I’m going to have to schedule some actual time for this tomorrow or Thursday - I keep opening it up and having 10 or 15 minutes... which just hasn’t been enough to actually participate.

I feel like I'm having the same issue.

[Hydrad]

So, until people get back I am gonna continue to build this case:

Sorry for completely vanishing when the world needed me most. The work project went well.

Phone posting right now so don’t expect anything too long or juicy, but here are my thoughts.

1) Galz was partially right and partially wrong - I do have a cop ability. I get two shots, one yielding the correct result and one yielding an incorrect result. I was not told which one would be the correct one though. Night one I targeted iguanaiguana because I was almost 100% sure he was town and thought that the result would tell me which cop I had left, the correct one or the incorrect one. Copping Iguana returned town, so I assumed that I had the incorrect one left. I copped silver last night, and again got a town result, which makes no sense.

2) I’m curious to know how many scum are left. Based off my cop results, something tells me that everything might not be as it seems with the alignments we’ve been getting from LaLight. Unless my copping ability is wrong or one of silver/iguana was a godfather of sorts, one of them had to be scum.

3) The info from above makes me question whether or not I can correctly make reads on who silver thought was scum yesterday based off the stuff silver said. I still think there’s a possibility that he was actually scum.

4) Galz is giving me scum vibes, as is chairs and maybe EFHW.

Response to 1) First off this would make perfect sense from skum disappearing and not confirming Galz's theory prior to deadline. After that they don't have to do any work. Someone else already laid the groundwork for their fake claim, they don't even have to be the one to do it. It is perfect. Secondly, I am *assuming* that skum does actually have the ability to mess with results so they threw in the SS part... or maybe they were setting it up as defense in case anyone ever got a result on them.

Response to 2) Knowing that there is a traitor in the game - saying this as skum makes a lot of sense. Trying to suggest that that there is already a dead skum that flipped town.

Response to 3) Same as #2.

Response to 4) Perfect triangle at the time. Their skum partner + Galz + lurksauce.


If both detective fake claims were given to skum, it is really not that hard to imagine that they pulled this off.

hmm. I feel like the game is telling me you have to be scum. But you are playing this really well and its making me hesitate.