Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[SpaceAnemone]

Does anyone other than Swan think that silver wasn't clearly breadcrumbing Swan at the end of D2?

I think he was breadcrumbing it.

But from the wording of his role it sounds like there was only like a 25% chance that he would get that role that he breadcrumbed. Because until the night started he wouldn't know what power he had right?

There was only a 25% chance at the start of the night that he got to use his power that way, but that does not mean that in retrospect, knowing he died, you have to believe that it's only a 25% chance that he died from being a weak visitor. If you did, you would have to be 75% sure that he (or Iguana) died as a result of some other as-yet-unrevealed death mechanic like a second scum NK, SK or vig.

OTOH, what if e targeted silver and let him pick what part of his role to use? Then wouldn't silver, knowing he'd left a solid breadcrumb, along with quite detailed instructions of what to look for when someone who's a WV dies, think it's a perfect opportunity to use WV effectively? I just did a quick read back, and silver wasn't e's biggest townread, though of course WCD's flip and the overall end-of-day play may have influenced him without him having a chance to post newer reads.

Anyway, what I'm saying is that we know silver died while breadcrumbing Swan. So either:
1. Something else caused a second death.
2. Silver died because Swan is scum.
3. Something messed with silver's ability to target, in a way that moved him from town!Swan to scum. (Would a scum redirect a townie's power onto themself?)
4. Silver changed his mind about who to target, even after that solid breadcrumb.

[SpaceAnemone]

Question for everyone: if you don't think silver targeted Swan in the night and died as a result, which other option (from the ones I just posted) are you suggesting is the true explanation, and what other decisions are you making based on that belief?

[EFHW]

Does anyone other than Swan think that silver wasn't clearly breadcrumbing Swan at the end of D2?

I think he was breadcrumbing it.

But from the wording of his role it sounds like there was only like a 25% chance that he would get that role that he breadcrumbed. Because until the night started he wouldn't know what power he had right?

This 25% weak visitor is really quite weak.

Weak as in you think my pointing it out is weak or weak as in something else. Because actually, I am gonna point out my own logic flaw here... if you knew that you only had one visiting role and it was WV then it wouldn't matter - SS would of breadcrumbed anyways I suppose given how they flipped.

Weak as in it's very hard to make use of as a power.

[EFHW]

Does anyone other than Swan think that silver wasn't clearly breadcrumbing Swan at the end of D2?

I think he was breadcrumbing it.

But from the wording of his role it sounds like there was only like a 25% chance that he would get that role that he breadcrumbed. Because until the night started he wouldn't know what power he had right?

There was only a 25% chance at the start of the night that he got to use his power that way, but that does not mean that in retrospect, knowing he died, you have to believe that it's only a 25% chance that he died from being a weak visitor. If you did, you would have to be 75% sure that he (or Iguana) died as a result of some other as-yet-unrevealed death mechanic like a second scum NK, SK or vig.

OTOH, what if e targeted silver and let him pick what part of his role to use? Then wouldn't silver, knowing he'd left a solid breadcrumb, along with quite detailed instructions of what to look for when someone who's a WV dies, think it's a perfect opportunity to use WV effectively? I just did a quick read back, and silver wasn't e's biggest townread, though of course WCD's flip and the overall end-of-day play may have influenced him without him having a chance to post newer reads.

Anyway, what I'm saying is that we know silver died while breadcrumbing Swan. So either:
1. Something else caused a second death.
2. Silver died because Swan is scum.
3. Something messed with silver's ability to target, in a way that moved him from town!Swan to scum. (Would a scum redirect a townie's power onto themself?)
4. Silver changed his mind about who to target, even after that solid breadcrumb.

I think 3 and 4 are really unlikely. Of 1 and 2, 1 is more likely. But 2 is greater than 25% because e! might have targeted silver and/or both 1 and 2 could be true.

[EFHW]

My last point doesn't really increase the likelihood of 2. It just makes the chances of either independent of each other.

[gkrieg13]

I was blocked last night most likely.

why?

I don’t plan on claiming right now, but something should have happened that didn’t so I was blocked.

[EFHW]

Summary of reread of DatSwan:

The first part of Day 1, he deals with the various plans, asking questions and evaluating them, mostly negatively. He asks if scum have fakeclaims. He says if we are going to do any plan, it should be today before scum get a chance to coordinate. He also defends WCD and votes Galz for lurking. Later he challenges WCD for saying his vote on Galzria had solid reasoning, and ends up putting her on his short list for scum: WCD, silver, e!. He unvotes Galz and just misses getting back for deadline.

Day 2 he starts out pointing fingers at those people who are SK hunting since that favors scum, but doesn't mention specific people. He asks Morgrim for results and misunderstands silver comment about having 2 votes. 508 he says silver is towny. 604 He roundly chastises Galzria for "[reasons]", but he also townreads him. He votes silver. 605 WCD is towny. 606-620 VCA. The discrepancies he found were subsequently resolved. 623 concludes the Least Common Denominator must be Hydrad and silver, so proposes we lynch one of them. Later he says silver could be the SK. Still later he says "". 678 He again calls out Galzria for the "[reasons]" thing.

Nearing deadline he disagrees that Morgrim sounds like a cop with a result. He warns town that L-1 should be considered a possible hammer. He is unhappy with the mason claim, but votes WCD. He tries drumming up support for a silver lynch, asks Space for their take on WCD, then votes Hydrad for perfect scum play. Switches back to WCD after the hammer.

I have to stop here. Will finish up later.

[EFHW]

The missing quotation from my previous post is this: #639 "I see a lot of silverspawn being put to L-X and then I am still here talking to silverspawn..."

During Twilight of Day 2, DatSwan says we need to look at Hydrad and e! He again says Galz is towny. But then he says #796 "Also on the off chance that WCD is some skum bomb mechanic space and Galz should be added to the list," which I really don't get.

Day 3: He suggests redirection to explain Morgrim's puzzling results. When I suggest silver was breadcrumbing Hydrad, he immediately wants Hydrad's partner to claim, but not Hydrad himself. I read him as being a bit flustered when the breadcrumb turned out to be much more likely on him. Then asks town for input on several things - how many scum? Maybe no SK? If we have more bad luck, we will either lose or wake up to 2-2-1. He rereads Morgrim and finds him quite scummy. Later has to revise his conclusion. Rereads Hydrad and finds him townier on reread than he had previously.

My take on this: DatSwan looks towny to me up until he starts scumreading silver. Then I start having some doubts, of course accentuated because we now know silver was town. I'm also a bit perplexed by the frequent townreads on Galzria, often accompanied by serious criticism. The last thing he said Day 2 is confusing. Then there was the scumread on Morgrim, who we also know now is probably town. I'd say I'd be willing to vote DatSwan, but I wouldn't tunnel him.

[EFHW]

Where is everyone?

[gkrieg13]

Where is everyone?

Busy right now. Trying to answer questions directly to me but this will be my last game for a while.

[Swowl]

Question for everyone: if you don't think silver targeted Swan in the night and died as a result, which other option (from the ones I just posted) are you suggesting is the true explanation, and what other decisions are you making based on that belief?

1) This could be potentially valuable information, especially if I am lynched today. silverspawn did NOT target me - just want to make that super clear. As in I did NOT receive a message saying he targeted me. Which is valuable info even if I get lynched today - Just cuz the kill would go off last in the resolution I believe (I have not confirmed that yet). This means that even if they targeted me, I would of got a message. So as Space #4 is like the most unlikely of options, and if they were killed at night I would of got a message, I think that either they were re-directed onto skum or they did not get the WV ability and they were killed. Unlikely that skum would of killed them, but SK would have to be aware they need to start offing skum if the SK exists.

2) I have to concede at this point that the crumb is fairly obvious. So, IMO it absolutely cannot be option #4  in Space's list. That would be so anti town for him to lay that out there and then switch because if he dies at night he obv puts me in this situation and then that's 2 dead town... I mean he wouldn't know I am town, but still I don't see any reason for his last post to be that crumb and then to switch given the potential downside.

3) In regards to #3, I do not at all see why people are hesitant to believe skum would redirect silver onto one of their own team mates. If this crumb silver left was SO obvious to everyone, then what is the downside of them not doing it? I am assuming that skum did not know what silver's role was, but as Space mentioned they made it a big deal to point out the use of the word "visit" and all that - so I don't think it is a stretch for skum to assume upon using that forced sentence at the end of day yesterday, that SS may just be some form of weak visitor.

3 SOUNDS like a paranoia theory, but really just run it through, it is not that far fetched.


On the other hand, #4 here is absolutely a paranoia theory, but I am putting it out there anyway:
4) The next of silverspawn's potential abilities was the no vote power. What if Skum followed all logic listed under the assumption that SS was WV, but instead SSrolled no vote. And now today we have GK with a No Vote ability on them. Yeah, it's a reach but I wanna throw it out there.

The QT opening thing is not relevant unless somehow Skum new silver's role. Which is unlikely.



Summary:

1) If everyone noticed silver's stance on the use of the word "visit" and using it as a crumb at the end of day yesterday.... and said crumb they left on me was so obvious to most - then why would it be weird for skum to re-direct silver onto a team mate? That is essentially an extra kill for them if SS is a WV of sorts.

2) With the crumb they left, combined with their previous statments about using the term "visit", I do not think it is possible that silver rolled the WV role and chose anyone but me.

3) I did NOT receive a message saying silver targeted me at night. So, assuming I am right about the resolution, they did not roll WV and also get killed at night.

4) If the no vote ability is directable, then the fact that GK has no vote is suspicious imo.

5) The last role of "opening a 1 day QT" is irrelevant unless skum somehow knew silver's actual role.

All in all, I do not think that is could be #4. I think it is suspicious of Space to question their #3 after they made all the points about SS using the term "weak" and pointing out how obvious the crumb was, that it would be weird for skum to re-direct onto their own. I know for a fact it is not #2. I think it is potentially also likely that if an SK is in play, they would consider targeting silver - I am basing that on my bias that I thought SS was coming off as skummy and if there is an SK they would want to kill skum at night at this point.

[Hydrad]

Question for everyone: if you don't think silver targeted Swan in the night and died as a result, which other option (from the ones I just posted) are you suggesting is the true explanation, and what other decisions are you making based on that belief?

1) This could be potentially valuable information, especially if I am lynched today. silverspawn did NOT target me - just want to make that super clear. As in I did NOT receive a message saying he targeted me. Which is valuable info even if I get lynched today - Just cuz the kill would go off last in the resolution I believe (I have not confirmed that yet). This means that even if they targeted me, I would of got a message. So as Space #4 is like the most unlikely of options, and if they were killed at night I would of got a message, I think that either they were re-directed onto skum or they did not get the WV ability and they were killed. Unlikely that skum would of killed them, but SK would have to be aware they need to start offing skum if the SK exists.

2) I have to concede at this point that the crumb is fairly obvious. So, IMO it absolutely cannot be option #4  in Space's list. That would be so anti town for him to lay that out there and then switch because if he dies at night he obv puts me in this situation and then that's 2 dead town... I mean he wouldn't know I am town, but still I don't see any reason for his last post to be that crumb and then to switch given the potential downside.

3) In regards to #3, I do not at all see why people are hesitant to believe skum would redirect silver onto one of their own team mates. If this crumb silver left was SO obvious to everyone, then what is the downside of them not doing it? I am assuming that skum did not know what silver's role was, but as Space mentioned they made it a big deal to point out the use of the word "visit" and all that - so I don't think it is a stretch for skum to assume upon using that forced sentence at the end of day yesterday, that SS may just be some form of weak visitor.

3 SOUNDS like a paranoia theory, but really just run it through, it is not that far fetched.


On the other hand, #4 here is absolutely a paranoia theory, but I am putting it out there anyway:
4) The next of silverspawn's potential abilities was the no vote power. What if Skum followed all logic listed under the assumption that SS was WV, but instead SSrolled no vote. And now today we have GK with a No Vote ability on them. Yeah, it's a reach but I wanna throw it out there.

The QT opening thing is not relevant unless somehow Skum new silver's role. Which is unlikely.



Summary:

1) If everyone noticed silver's stance on the use of the word "visit" and using it as a crumb at the end of day yesterday.... and said crumb they left on me was so obvious to most - then why would it be weird for skum to re-direct silver onto a team mate? That is essentially an extra kill for them if SS is a WV of sorts.

2) With the crumb they left, combined with their previous statments about using the term "visit", I do not think it is possible that silver rolled the WV role and chose anyone but me.

3) I did NOT receive a message saying silver targeted me at night. So, assuming I am right about the resolution, they did not roll WV and also get killed at night.

4) If the no vote ability is directable, then the fact that GK has no vote is suspicious imo.

5) The last role of "opening a 1 day QT" is irrelevant unless skum somehow knew silver's actual role.

All in all, I do not think that is could be #4. I think it is suspicious of Space to question their #3 after they made all the points about SS using the term "weak" and pointing out how obvious the crumb was, that it would be weird for skum to re-direct onto their own. I know for a fact it is not #2. I think it is potentially also likely that if an SK is in play, they would consider targeting silver - I am basing that on my bias that I thought SS was coming off as skummy and if there is an SK they would want to kill skum at night at this point.

one thing is its harder to notice breadcrumbs when you don't know what role they are yet. I would be impressed if scum figured out from that SS post that he was a WK. But once someone flips you can go back and kinda see potential breadcrumbs.

[Swowl]

Question for everyone: if you don't think silver targeted Swan in the night and died as a result, which other option (from the ones I just posted) are you suggesting is the true explanation, and what other decisions are you making based on that belief?

1) This could be potentially valuable information, especially if I am lynched today. silverspawn did NOT target me - just want to make that super clear. As in I did NOT receive a message saying he targeted me. Which is valuable info even if I get lynched today - Just cuz the kill would go off last in the resolution I believe (I have not confirmed that yet). This means that even if they targeted me, I would of got a message. So as Space #4 is like the most unlikely of options, and if they were killed at night I would of got a message, I think that either they were re-directed onto skum or they did not get the WV ability and they were killed. Unlikely that skum would of killed them, but SK would have to be aware they need to start offing skum if the SK exists.

2) I have to concede at this point that the crumb is fairly obvious. So, IMO it absolutely cannot be option #4  in Space's list. That would be so anti town for him to lay that out there and then switch because if he dies at night he obv puts me in this situation and then that's 2 dead town... I mean he wouldn't know I am town, but still I don't see any reason for his last post to be that crumb and then to switch given the potential downside.

3) In regards to #3, I do not at all see why people are hesitant to believe skum would redirect silver onto one of their own team mates. If this crumb silver left was SO obvious to everyone, then what is the downside of them not doing it? I am assuming that skum did not know what silver's role was, but as Space mentioned they made it a big deal to point out the use of the word "visit" and all that - so I don't think it is a stretch for skum to assume upon using that forced sentence at the end of day yesterday, that SS may just be some form of weak visitor.

3 SOUNDS like a paranoia theory, but really just run it through, it is not that far fetched.


On the other hand, #4 here is absolutely a paranoia theory, but I am putting it out there anyway:
4) The next of silverspawn's potential abilities was the no vote power. What if Skum followed all logic listed under the assumption that SS was WV, but instead SSrolled no vote. And now today we have GK with a No Vote ability on them. Yeah, it's a reach but I wanna throw it out there.

The QT opening thing is not relevant unless somehow Skum new silver's role. Which is unlikely.



Summary:

1) If everyone noticed silver's stance on the use of the word "visit" and using it as a crumb at the end of day yesterday.... and said crumb they left on me was so obvious to most - then why would it be weird for skum to re-direct silver onto a team mate? That is essentially an extra kill for them if SS is a WV of sorts.

2) With the crumb they left, combined with their previous statments about using the term "visit", I do not think it is possible that silver rolled the WV role and chose anyone but me.

3) I did NOT receive a message saying silver targeted me at night. So, assuming I am right about the resolution, they did not roll WV and also get killed at night.

4) If the no vote ability is directable, then the fact that GK has no vote is suspicious imo.

5) The last role of "opening a 1 day QT" is irrelevant unless skum somehow knew silver's actual role.

All in all, I do not think that is could be #4. I think it is suspicious of Space to question their #3 after they made all the points about SS using the term "weak" and pointing out how obvious the crumb was, that it would be weird for skum to re-direct onto their own. I know for a fact it is not #2. I think it is potentially also likely that if an SK is in play, they would consider targeting silver - I am basing that on my bias that I thought SS was coming off as skummy and if there is an SK they would want to kill skum at night at this point.

one thing is its harder to notice breadcrumbs when you don't know what role they are yet. I would be impressed if scum figured out from that SS post that he was a WK. But once someone flips you can go back and kinda see potential breadcrumbs.

I mean yeah... but it was, as pointed out.... pointed out so much. I think it should at least be considered that a team of players vs a team of individual players could of used said info to select a decision.

[Swowl]

Since we all about the breadcrumbs:

iguana is town and Awaclus is annoyingly probably town. the people to look at here are e and ... actually I don't know if anyone else is, really..

the above is the only real crumb I can find day 1 from silver. Let alone (feel free to read back) - there is ABSOLUTELY ZERO reference to visiting Space, or really any mention of Space at all.

Urgh, busy night. Seems reasonably likely that ash was the NK and Iguana died by targeting the wrong person while in human form. I need to read back to work out who Iguana would have been scumreading, and work out whether he'd have played to die as a way of catching scum at all anyway, especially with a randomly switching role like that.

If I had a WV power, even if it was just one of many powers, I would have breadcrumbed in some way that I was going to use it on you before actually doing so. It seems like it'd be pretty poor play not to do that.

I think we should look through igu's post history for such clues.

this is both accurate to exactly how they flipped and marking the fact that they would of bread crumbed in the previous day. Also this is like one of many times in D2 that they make a HUGE point of linking Iguana's potential WV power, but I cannot find a triangle between SS-Igu-PlayerX anywhere on Day 1.

I just hope hydrad isn't hammered, which unfortunately is possible.

And then there is the above here also suggesting a potential crumb at a viable Town!Hydrad result from N1. It is a reach, but it is all I got.


My point here is - and I think I have substantiated enough potential evidence at this point to at the very least not have this dismissed as OMGUS - that I think Space is skum.

1) They believe that SS was adamant about leaving breadcrumbs for their targets. They did not leave any for Space. After SS flips, Space claims an unverifiable result. It is in fact safe seeing as how no one brought up any connection to point about a QT being made, nor did SS say anything about being getting the Watcher role, nor did SS have a no vote ability on D2.

2) Upon seeing the crumb, which Space is very good at - I can't remember the most recent example exactly, but it was whatever game Awaclus won out as WW in. In hindsight of the game ending, it was a clear crumb, but no one caught it the whole time (for the purposes of that game, just being clear, Space did well and we sucked) - but that is also kind of my point for Skum!Space now. Space sees the crumb, they obviously had the "visit"t thing ready to go... is it really that far fetched to say they could articulate a plan as skum to follow this narrative. I mean damn, there doesn't even need to be a skum re-director for this to make sense, they could of just gotten lucky and an SK could of shot SS. Or even SK could of shot E! and skum shot SS with this as the set up plan the whole time.

[Swowl]

I truly believe in the aforementioned case. We need to consider a mass claim as an actual option. At this point I think it will put more of the puzzle together than what we currently have. If everyone would agree to... I hesitantly suggest that the "masons" choose the order. But more than anything I think we need to claim out to have a chance to win at this point.

The longer we stall the less time we have to discuss - so even if your opinion is "no", everyone needs to speak up.

[Swowl]

also something I forgot to mention earlier - just cuz no weird vote has been rendered doesn't mean it is not a thing. Keep it in mind when we move to end of day.

[Swowl]

also also... masons - if you are masons... you need to do better. IDK what that means, but there are supposedly 2 of you that know you are town and you are doing just like frikin nothing. You need to start using your role to our advantage or we are screwed.

[Swowl]

Where is everyone?

Busy right now. Trying to answer questions directly to me but this will be my last game for a while.

Direct question - if you are aware you will not be able to participate a lot, and you know you have a piece of information that town does not, what is the hesitation in claiming said info today vs waiting for assumedly tomorrow?

[Swowl]

Last thing before I go to watch the Ozark finale... Chairs and Galz are like insanely out of character this game. I still want to TR Galz for the catches on the voting mechanic stuff and their case on the cop connection... but it is becoming more difficult as time moves on. Chairs I have literally no clue on, but just like everyone needs to be talking more at this point. This will be 2 games in a row where allowing non-activity to be a somewhat norm "on FDS" to cost us the game. Further than this game now, it should be addressed. We should set a standard and make it harder for skum to lurk within for games to come.

[Swowl]

Question for everyone: if you don't think silver targeted Swan in the night and died as a result, which other option (from the ones I just posted) are you suggesting is the true explanation, and what other decisions are you making based on that belief?

I really wish I had thought of this before posting what I just have... but how about you Space? If you remove me being skum and SS WVing me at night from the equation, what do you thing is the most plausible next option of the options you provided?

[LaLight]

Vote count 3.2

DatSwan (1): SpaceAnemone
Galzria (1): Hydrad
gkrieg13 (1): Galzria
Not voting (4): Morgrim7, chairs, DatSwan, EFHW

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends Saturday, 6th of October, at 5am

[chairs]

I honestly had a dream that this game was over already. Oops.

[EFHW]

I honestly had a dream that this game was over already. Oops.

Who were the scum?

[EFHW]

I don't know why it's so quiet, with the exception of DatSwan, but we need to jumpstart things here. Unless there's a significant objection, I suggest we go ahead with the mass claim.

HYDRAD and MORGRIM: Please set up an order for us to claim in!

[Morgrim7]

I don't know why it's so quiet, with the exception of DatSwan, but we need to jumpstart things here. Unless there's a significant objection, I suggest we go ahead with the mass claim.

HYDRAD and MORGRIM: Please set up an order for us to claim in!

DatSwan
EFHW
Space
gkrieg
chairs
Galz

I guess idek

I ordered that list from who I think is the most scummy to least scummy. Chairs and gkrieg are kinda tied. Pretty sure galz is just town here. EFHW looks really confusing to me.

Actually, I would like gkrieg to claim first I am curious about the thing he said about being blocked after night one.