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[SpaceAnemone]

Other possibilities for silver's death are NK, SK, or vig, plus maybe the possibility of some weird double-kill RMM mechanic (which I guess would still be a kind of NK).

I think NK is unlikely because certain people were trying to convince the rest of the game that he was widely scumread, and he'd had a wagon, so seems a bit of an unlikely kill target compared to e, who was broadly townie.

Vig is an outside possibility, though it's not generally a good idea for the vig to shoot early, and I think most players here agree with that.

I'm not convinced there's any evidence for an SK in the game, especially now we've seen a third-faction flip in Ken/WCD.

[EFHW]

I don't see any comparable breadcrumbs for Space, or anyone, Day 1. I agree that is strange given his statements on Day 2. Maybe someone else can find something. I'll reread DatSwan next.

[SpaceAnemone]

hydrad's partner needs to speak up now.

To be super clear - it would be anti town given the options at foot for Hydrad to state their partner. The partner needs to speak up.

While I won't state it now. is it a terrible idea to try to save the person to potentially get a late game IC? although D3 is decently late.

It's terrible to leave you alive if we still think there's a strong chance you're just a scum who claimed Mason to avoid being the lynch. I know someone already opined that you're not brazen enough to go for that, but I can totally imagine scum!Galz pushing you into it, for example.

If your partner outs themself now, then if one of you gets flipped overnight, that sets up the other to get IC status for D3. If they don't claim today, will we necessarily believe them? Scum may force a 1v1 scenario for D3, and it may all be over by D4, depending on what scum's real kill capacity is... I honestly don't know whether we've just been very unlucky with town "weak" deaths or if it's all going to be over much sooner than we'd like.

Annoyingly, it probably gives scum a disincentive to flip claimed Masons, but I'd hope we have some investigative roles left to cover that base, probabilistic or otherwise.

[Swowl]

I am really bad with the bread crumb stuff - can someone spell out for me what it is about my end of day posts that looks like crumbing?

??

Nobody's talking about your posts looking like breadcrumbs, we're talking about silver having breadcrumbed that you were his intended weak visitor target.

We know that one of silver's abilities was a loud weak visitor, and he's dead. He also made a big point early in D2 about breadcrumbing, then used the word "visit" in relation to you at the end of D2, which indicates that if he was a weak visitor that night, you would be his target. Now we've got a dead weak visitor, so it's definitely worth considering the possibility that he's dead because he visited you.

But he said I was late visiting to him? Or is there a different post? The one at the end of the day is referring to me visiting him. I mean I get what you are saying and you can consider away, but I think it is a pretty far reach. Also as I am not skum he did not visit me.

[SpaceAnemone]

But he said I was late visiting to him? Or is there a different post? The one at the end of the day is referring to me visiting him. I mean I get what you are saying and you can consider away, but I think it is a pretty far reach. Also as I am not skum he did not visit me.

He explicitly used the term "visit", which is what he had suggested at #428 was the kind of thing he would have expected Iguana to have done to breadcrumb whom he'd intended to visit. I think it's quite a compelling statement of intent, especially given that it's quite a weird phrasing for what he was trying to say in English anyway, and while not a native speaker, he's better at writing than plenty of native speakers I've met, so the more I think about it, the more I believe it has to have been a deliberate crumb.

I wonder if it's telling that you're arguing that he cannot have visited you because you're not scum, rather than suggesting that he may just have died for some reason other than visiting you.

[Swowl]

But he said I was late visiting to him? Or is there a different post? The one at the end of the day is referring to me visiting him. I mean I get what you are saying and you can consider away, but I think it is a pretty far reach. Also as I am not skum he did not visit me.

He explicitly used the term "visit", which is what he had suggested at #428 was the kind of thing he would have expected Iguana to have done to breadcrumb whom he'd intended to visit. I think it's quite a compelling statement of intent, especially given that it's quite a weird phrasing for what he was trying to say in English anyway, and while not a native speaker, he's better at writing than plenty of native speakers I've met, so the more I think about it, the more I believe it has to have been a deliberate crumb.

I wonder if it's telling that you're arguing that he cannot have visited you because you're not scum, rather than suggesting that he may just have died for some reason other than visiting you.

Given as we are talking about him dying at night due to specifically "visiting" me - my point is that he did not die from visiting me, so yes.. obviously I believe he must of died a different way.

Given (if I understand the role correctly) he only had a 25% chance to get the WV at all... if anything the "visit us" would be a hint at him wanting me to target him in some way hoping he got the QT Role or would learn my flavor.

[Swowl]

Going with multiple avenues of thought (not dismissing the breadcrumb thing) I just only have like an hour and I have a few things I want to get out there for input:

1) How many skum? Not like crazy important I guess, but I have only played I think 3 RMMs so I am a little unclear on what "standard" is in this situation. We had a Survivor - does that normally factor in to how many there are?

2) Presence of a SK - We started like the whole Day 1 under this assumption that SK. To Space's point previously made.. is it possible there is no SK?

3) If we get another horrible sequence of flips (all three town flips) and there is no SK, but there are 3 Skum, we wake up to 2 Town vs 3 Skum (which is game over). If there is an SK then we would wake up to 2-2-1,

I find the above two questions important because of the idea of a mass claim. With an SK and the confirmed Survivor, I would assume that there are only 2 skum (if that is stupid, someone tell me). In this situation we wake up 2-2-1 if we mislynch and there are 2 Town deaths at night. If there is no SK, I assume there are 3 Skum (again, I could just be wrong on the assumption). If that is the case and we mislynch and there are 2 Town deaths at night... we lose.


We have a mason claim, we have the weird Morgrim backwards cop result, we have some other random claims of being visited and ect.... getting it all out there might be something to consider.

[Swowl]

From the re reads I have done on my suspicious player list, this is where I am at:

Morgrim:

Day 1:
1) They claim Det Zimm. That is weird. Why would you outright claim a cop designated PR D1 for no reason? I couldn't, and now still cannot get over that. I did in the middle because I thought Galz made a good case about Morgrim pushing silver without a lot of real given reason.
 
2) I am giving skum points to anyone that just jumped on the Awaclus wagon, which Morgrim was right in the middle of. Awaclus claim seemed ridiculously towny and clearly hinted at having a time traveling component to it (which I would assume skum would want to eliminate asap).

Day 2:
1) They wake up - see below to why I don't think that makes sense.
2) They disappear for the Galz push on silver thing and for the end of day to verify anything.

Day 3:
1) They claim results on 2 dead players.
2) They give themselves 2 shots, which they have used up. Thus creating no reason for "Skum to kill them at night".
3) They throw in the silver reverse flip to add in a little craziness and, I am assuming, make it seem more believable.


Then there is just the logic of how the Det Zimm claim played out. In the below three steps they have created a role for themselves that checks out, that has no reason to be NK'd (because all shots are used), and also creates chaos of information (with the "results on SS").

Step 1 - Claimed Det Zimm.
Gave no insight as to what he could actually do, but as it has been universally kind of accepted, it was def expected to hint at having a cop-like ability set. Also, since Awaclus was the only other claim and they were the lynch... I find it strange that the deaths for the night were Iguana, who they could easily of pushed a skum meta for based on their opening of D1... so IDK why they would want him dead... and then Ashes, who essentially pushed a similar concept to Iguana so they could of also pushed a case on them. Why would Town!Morgrim wake up? Cop results in a game like this can be extremely damning to skum... they just what... rolled the dice he wasn't gonna pick on of them?

Step 2 - Disappear Day 2 after Galz makes their case about silver.
As we know now, silver was Town, as well as the final lynch of WCD. Why speak up if it is Skum!Morgrim? They can just let it play out. The only other wagon that got close was Hydrad, who I also think is skummy at this point and that obviously got de-railed onto WCD.

Step 3 - Claim results and render themselves a non-target.
They claimed Iguana Night 1 to verify the bullets. Then claimed the backwards result on silver Night 2. THIS IS A PERFECT PLAY. They have verified they are a cop, they have given results that do not tie them to anyone at all. Annnnndddd they even throw in a little chaos about the reverse flip on silver to make it seem more believable.


I am staying on GK for the test vote right now, but Morgrim is my top pick at this point.

[Hydrad]

i'd be fine with a mass claim.

[Swowl]

Hydrad:

Day 1:

1) Post 158 - states they are OK with Ashes flavor claim plan, but not so much with the list of flavor connections plan. I can't really decide, but I think there are town points to be given here under the assumption they are actually a mason. Flavor claim, if they have a town partner as mason, would be beneficial to finding skum because they can communicate and create a foundation to prove they are actually masons down the road. It could also be skum just agreeing to flavor claim because it would help them isolate valuable targets.

2)  Post 184 - does a "mini claim" in which all they state is that they do not need anyone for their role to activate. This could just be mason saying it out loud to remove themselves from any wasted Town PR targets and/or to remove themselves from Skum NK targets. However, it also could be skum trying to avoid being targeted.

3) Post 218 - points out that time travel would be a town power and the Awaclus claim makes Awaclus towny for it. Again, town points I think. I want to say it could be conf!bias, but the only player on the Awaclus wagon at that point was Town!silver so I would think that skum would want to push it there.

4) Post 259 - "cool with lynching the new guy" post and gets on the Town!WCD wagon. Skum points for that.

5) Post 419 - Intent to hammer Awaclus. No points - even with the Town read I shared with them regarding Awaclus, I still would of hammered the only viable wagon to avoid no lynch.

6) Post 421 - Hammers Awaclus. No points - even with the Town read I shared with them regarding Awaclus, I still would of hammered the only viable wagon to avoid no lynch.


Day 2:

1) Post 587 - Idea that Ashes redacted ability could be something to do with controlling the vote. Kind of far fetched of a plan for skum to make. Seems paranoid-ish to me. Town points.

2) Culmination of posts - Town read Awaclus Day 1, Town read E! "even though they are pushing a case", Town read SS and doesn't know who to lynch. Thats 3 for 3 which is strange for me to accept. Null points.

3) Post 722 - claims mason. didn't want to because they would have to out their partner. which never happened. Null points.

4) Post 728 - Asks Town!E if they think they should claim their mason partner. This is weird. They could be skum here knowing that they can kill E! to get a town flip for cred. But if E! says yes... then what do they do? Claim a skum partner? Seems risky. Starting to lean actual town at this point.


Day 3:

1) Post 817 - Skum has to have a way to mess with results, can't see another explanation for why Morgrim got a weird result. Never considered Morgrim could be skum. That could be combo conf!bias as Town!Morgrim plus knowledge of skum having that power. It could also be Morgrim!Hydrad. Or just quick check in silliness, but skumish points here.



Whatever, all in all I guess this is why we do re reads because I was totally on Skum!Hydrad before... and while I am not saying I am not considering them, I def like them a lot more for town after the read then before.

[gkrieg13]

100% there is an SK.

Which means we should probably mass claim today.

[gkrieg13]

Actually I take that back. Partner should claim, then town non masons know 3 town and there are probably only 4 town left.

[EFHW]

Agree with DatSwan that the Awaclus lynch was scummy (need to look at the wagon itself tomorrow) and that Morgrim surviving N1 and N2 is remarkable.

[EFHW]

Actually I take that back. Partner should claim, then town non masons know 3 town and there are probably only 4 town left.

If we're going to do claiming, that seems like a good start, rather than starting with full mass claim. Hydrad seemed reluctant, though. I'm not sure what his reasoning was.

[Swowl]

Actually I take that back. Partner should claim, then town non masons know 3 town and there are probably only 4 town left.

If we're going to do claiming, that seems like a good start, rather than starting with full mass claim. Hydrad seemed reluctant, though. I'm not sure what his reasoning was.

? Hrsyad said he would be fine with it

[EFHW]

I was thinking of this. I guess he did give a reason.

hydrad's partner needs to speak up now.

To be super clear - it would be anti town given the options at foot for Hydrad to state their partner. The partner needs to speak up.

While I won't state it now. is it a terrible idea to try to save the person to potentially get a late game IC? although D3 is decently late.

[Hydrad]

I was thinking of this. I guess he did give a reason.

hydrad's partner needs to speak up now.

To be super clear - it would be anti town given the options at foot for Hydrad to state their partner. The partner needs to speak up.

While I won't state it now. is it a terrible idea to try to save the person to potentially get a late game IC? although D3 is decently late.

i've thought about it more since then and I don't really mind. we could be at lylo already for all i know.

[Morgrim7]

I would be okay with a mass claim.

I’m Hydrad’s partner.

[Hydrad]

I would be okay with a mass claim.

I’m Hydrad’s partner.

confirming.

[Galzria]

Hydrad, would claiming your flavor be useful?

I really don't know if it would help/hurt since I don't know the flavor at all

I don't think I should claim my flavor today. Tommorow I think I could but I don't think I should here.

I would be okay with a mass claim.

I’m Hydrad’s partner.

I believe both of them primarily because of this. Morgrim claimed Detective Zimmerfield D1. His partner is Detective Estevez. Had Hydrad claimed such yesterday, it would’ve outted Morgrim yesterday, something he was trying not to do - especially with Morgrim being MIA and not being able to chime in.

For this to be faked, it would’ve needed to be planned from D1 with Morgrim’s claim.

[LaLight]

Vote count 3.1

EFHW (1): chairs
chairs (1): EFHW
DatSwan (1): SpaceAnemone
gkrieg13 (1): DatSwan
Not voting (3): Galzria, Hydrad, Morgrim7

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch. Day 3 ends Saturday, 6th of October, at 5am

[chairs]

Ok that’s that for me at least.

unvote

[Hydrad]

Test vote: galz

[gkrieg13]

Well, if we assume 3 scum and 1 SK (seems reasonable for this size game.  Other possibility is 2 scum), then me and the other townie just need to find each other.  That assumes we believe the masons, which due to galz's point seems reasonable.

I am voteless today, which means we need the SK to vote along with town to lynch scum unless any of them bus.

chairs, EFHW, Space, galz, Datswan.  Probably only one of you is town.  I will do rereads probably tomorrow or Wednesday.

[Swowl]

unvote

Hm well Again not knowing the show has caused me to waste time - i am not 100% sold still but i am willing to forgoe it for the day and focus on looking else where.

Unfortunately my top two cases were the alleged masons sooo i need to look into some other stuff.