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[LaLight]

"Dirk, here's the thing I don't like: we just went out of the house and there is already a death..."

"Todd, life is hard. I heard Patrick Spring has a daughter, we should check on her".

Todd and Dirk went to the Spring's mansion but there was not a soul. Where else could she be...

At this very moment a dramatic scene was unravelled on the other end of town. The Soul Swappers were trying to swap Lydia Spring's body with the dog's one. Something went wrong and both lovely creatures stopped breathing...

iguanaiguana was killed. He was Lydia Spring, the Universe Aligned Missing Girl. Her powers were as follows:

Your abilities:

Woof-woof: each night you will turn either into the girl or into the dog with 50% probability. You will know your form in the end of the night.

Follow: You may target a player. If you are in your Dog form, in the end of the night you will know who this player targeted that night.

If you are in your girl form, and this player is Universe-Aligned, you will be protected from all killing actions that night.
If you are in your girl form and this player is not Universe-Aligned, you will die.

But this were not the last deaths this night. Martin, a Rowdy 3 boss looked at his boys, said "I feel the universe is breaking" and passed out.

ashersky was killed! He was Martin, a Universe-Aligned Rowdy3 Boss. His powers were as follows:

You are conditional Doctor/Vanillaiser/Bodyguard/Roleblocker.

Your abilities:

Let's make the chaos, boys!: Each night you may target a player.

[REDACTED]

Day 2 starts now!

Vote count 2.0

Not voting (11): Galzria, SpaceAnemone, gkrieg13, EFHW, DatSwan, silverspawn, Hydrad, Morgrim7, chairs, 2.71828....., WestCoastDidds

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends Thursday, 27th of September, at 4am

Thread unlocked!

[SpaceAnemone]

Urgh, busy night. Seems reasonably likely that ash was the NK and Iguana died by targeting the wrong person while in human form. I need to read back to work out who Iguana would have been scumreading, and work out whether he'd have played to die as a way of catching scum at all anyway, especially with a randomly switching role like that.

If that leaves Ash as the NK, then it kind of points to older players who're more aware of his big meta. I don't see Ash as that big and scary a target, and I suspect others who think a bit more like me (silver, for isntance) would leave him be as scum just because he has a high chance of lying to town and self-destructing even as town.

Then there's the good old "why didn't Galz/gkrieg die?" thing. There's bound to be wifom in here somewhere along the line, though. More reading and thinking when I'm not at work...

[silverspawn]

Urgh, busy night. Seems reasonably likely that ash was the NK and Iguana died by targeting the wrong person while in human form. I need to read back to work out who Iguana would have been scumreading, and work out whether he'd have played to die as a way of catching scum at all anyway, especially with a randomly switching role like that.

If I had a WV power, even if it was just one of many powers, I would have breadcrumbed in some way that I was going to use it on you before actually doing so. It seems like it'd be pretty poor play not to do that.

I think we should look through igu's post history for such clues.

[silverspawn]

Mh, I did not see anything. He never used the term 'visit' or stated any particular interest in one player, except WCD, but for most of the game it was a scumread, which would make her a bad target.

But I'm historically bad at finding clues so other people should also try.

[silverspawn]

A priori I would say WCD is the most likely target, just because iguana did end up changing his mind about her. It seems like the kind of thing where you want to get confirmation. On the other hand, it's kind of reckless to just use it on whoever.

It's also possible that he didn't die due to the WV but that we have a SK or a vig (like bart)

[gkrieg13]

I was blocked last night most likely.

[EFHW]

A priori I would say WCD is the most likely target, just because iguana did end up changing his mind about her. It seems like the kind of thing where you want to get confirmation. On the other hand, it's kind of reckless to just use it on whoever.

It's also possible that he didn't die due to the WV but that we have a SK or a vig (like bart)

Or he was a dog.

[Galzria]

Urgh, busy night. Seems reasonably likely that ash was the NK and Iguana died by targeting the wrong person while in human form. I need to read back to work out who Iguana would have been scumreading, and work out whether he'd have played to die as a way of catching scum at all anyway, especially with a randomly switching role like that.

If that leaves Ash as the NK, then it kind of points to older players who're more aware of his big meta. I don't see Ash as that big and scary a target, and I suspect others who think a bit more like me (silver, for isntance) would leave him be as scum just because he has a high chance of lying to town and self-destructing even as town.

Then there's the good old "why didn't Galz/gkrieg die?" thing. There's bound to be wifom in here somewhere along the line, though. More reading and thinking when I'm not at work...

Bold - Why? I mean, certainly it's possible - but as Iguana didn't really leave any breadcrumbed clues as to whom he might have targeted... I don't know. Why would you assume this to be true over the potential for a Vig/SK to have shot him though?

Italicized - This paragraph is kind of contradictory, and in general I just don't really agree that much. Having played with Ash for a very long time, I'm very familiar with him as a player. I find it almost funny that the Myth is so much bigger than the Man in this case. His history is blown up to be much more than it ever actually was. The contradictory thought process is that older players would be more scared of him, whereas new players would be willing to wait it out for him to self destruct as town based on his history - but if anybody were to be familiar with that sort of trend from him, it would in fact be the older players, not the newer ones.

Underlined - This trend (and thought process) kinda ran it's course a few games back. I've been alive as town into the late game (penultimate LyLo last game, LyLo the game before) much more recently. The game before that I was lynched D1, and the game prior to that I was, I believe, killed N1. I lose track. My point though, is that in general lately (and especially with the number of newer players), there's been less of a trend towards mine or any other players individual deaths in the early nights.

A priori I would say WCD is the most likely target, just because iguana did end up changing his mind about her. It seems like the kind of thing where you want to get confirmation. On the other hand, it's kind of reckless to just use it on whoever.

It's also possible that he didn't die due to the WV but that we have a SK or a vig (like bart)

Or he was a dog.

EFHW, I'm not sure what you mean here? If he was a Dog, then his PR was that of a Tracker - in which case his death was due to Mafia/Vig/SK - which is basically what SS said.

Actually, SS - you didn't say that his death was potentially caused from a Mafia shot - you only mentioned WV, SK & Vig. Why the omission?

[gkrieg13]

vote: silver

[EFHW]

A priori I would say WCD is the most likely target, just because iguana did end up changing his mind about her. It seems like the kind of thing where you want to get confirmation. On the other hand, it's kind of reckless to just use it on whoever.

It's also possible that he didn't die due to the WV but that we have a SK or a vig (like bart)

Or he was a dog.

EFHW, I'm not sure what you mean here? If he was a Dog, then his PR was that of a Tracker - in which case his death was due to Mafia/Vig/SK - which is basically what SS said.

My use of "or" was not precise, but it sounded good. I also felt silver was spending a curious amount of time on the WV theory given the high likelihood that we have an SK/vig in Bart.

[silverspawn]

A priori I would say WCD is the most likely target, just because iguana did end up changing his mind about her. It seems like the kind of thing where you want to get confirmation. On the other hand, it's kind of reckless to just use it on whoever.

It's also possible that he didn't die due to the WV but that we have a SK or a vig (like bart)

Or he was a dog.

EFHW, I'm not sure what you mean here? If he was a Dog, then his PR was that of a Tracker - in which case his death was due to Mafia/Vig/SK - which is basically what SS said.

My use of "or" was not precise, but it sounded good. I also felt silver was spending a curious amount of time on the WV theory given the high likelihood that we have an SK/vig in Bart.

You think three short posts is too much time spent on searching for a clue that, if present, reveals a scum immediately?

[silverspawn]

Actually, SS - you didn't say that his death was potentially caused from a Mafia shot - you only mentioned WV, SK & Vig. Why the omission?

Well, my thought process went WV shot -> then ash was NKd and iguana died that way -> can't find clues -> need another source for the igu kill -> SK

but of course, if you assume that he died through means other than his WV, then it's equally likely that he was the ordinary NK and ash the SK

[silverspawn]

I urge everyone else to re-read iguana, and not take me finding no clue as proof that there is no clue. This is obviously the most important thing we have to do right now.

[silverspawn]

Like, the prior chance for WV is probably over 50%, and the prior for him to have placed a clue should also be around that, and the reward of finding one is very large. That trumps reads and such.

[silverspawn]

also vote: EFHW for her bizarre comment

[WestCoastDidds]

Iguana death: it seems like there would be a very low likelihood that he’d have targeted, and been a girl, and found scum. Someone other than me would know the probability, but it seems like it would be low.

So far, all the characters that have been revealed are characters that I’d expect to be playing. So I am super confident there is a Bart, and I don’t know how she couldn’t be a serial killer.

So, it seems much more likely that there is a serial killer and a mafia hit. Iguana was one of the highest contributing members so he makes sense to me as a target. I don’t know if Asher at all, but I realize I’m in the minority there.

PPE some

Can someone fill me in...how do we go about finding, and in our case maybe converting, a serial killer?

[silverspawn]

Iguana death: it seems like there would be a very low likelihood that he’d have targeted, and been a girl, and found scum. Someone other than me would know the probability, but it seems like it would be low.

There's no calculation you can do because it depends on hidden variables, but why would it be low? We don't actually know there's a SK, but iguana flipped with a role that we know has a mechanism that kills him.

Can someone fill me in...how do we go about finding, and in our case maybe converting, a serial killer?

We dont. There probably isn't a SK.

[WestCoastDidds]

Hmmm....that’s a lot of certainty that there isn’t a SK. Why are you thinking that?

So far, the game roles follow the program characters. On the show, Bart kills anyone/everyone indiscriminately, except for that guy she captures, looking for Dirk. My guess is that she would be converted to town, or maybe be killed or become vulnerable to attack, if she targets Dirk. At least that is what leads to her change on the show. But until then, I’d guess that she’d keep killing indiscriminately. Since the SK is a Maria game role that does that, I don’t know why that sounds farfetched.

The complexity of the girl/dog switch really close self parallels the show and that along with the huge number of choices for Springer(Awaclus) suggests that all of our roles are complicated. I don’t think there aren’t additional killers.

I’m also curious about the part of Asher’s role that is redacted...

[silverspawn]

So are you the SK?

[Galzria]

I too believe it's more likely than not that Bart is in play.

[SpaceAnemone]

Urgh, busy night. Seems reasonably likely that ash was the NK and Iguana died by targeting the wrong person while in human form. I need to read back to work out who Iguana would have been scumreading, and work out whether he'd have played to die as a way of catching scum at all anyway, especially with a randomly switching role like that.

If that leaves Ash as the NK, then it kind of points to older players who're more aware of his big meta. I don't see Ash as that big and scary a target, and I suspect others who think a bit more like me (silver, for isntance) would leave him be as scum just because he has a high chance of lying to town and self-destructing even as town.

Then there's the good old "why didn't Galz/gkrieg die?" thing. There's bound to be wifom in here somewhere along the line, though. More reading and thinking when I'm not at work...

Bold - Why? I mean, certainly it's possible - but as Iguana didn't really leave any breadcrumbed clues as to whom he might have targeted... I don't know. Why would you assume this to be true over the potential for a Vig/SK to have shot him though?

Italicized - This paragraph is kind of contradictory, and in general I just don't really agree that much. Having played with Ash for a very long time, I'm very familiar with him as a player. I find it almost funny that the Myth is so much bigger than the Man in this case. His history is blown up to be much more than it ever actually was. The contradictory thought process is that older players would be more scared of him, whereas new players would be willing to wait it out for him to self destruct as town based on his history - but if anybody were to be familiar with that sort of trend from him, it would in fact be the older players, not the newer ones.

Underlined - This trend (and thought process) kinda ran it's course a few games back. I've been alive as town into the late game (penultimate LyLo last game, LyLo the game before) much more recently. The game before that I was lynched D1, and the game prior to that I was, I believe, killed N1. I lose track. My point though, is that in general lately (and especially with the number of newer players), there's been less of a trend towards mine or any other players individual deaths in the early nights.

Bold: Iguana's WV is the only additional death-causing role, on top of an assumed regular scum faction kill, that we know of in the game. There's been loads of speculation about an SK, and I do agree that Bart as a character would fit very nicely with SK as a role, but we have no actual evidence that that's the direction LL has taken her role in, so I'm going with the other evidence on the table. I'm not saying I wouldn't believe it if someone came out as Bart and admitted causing one of the night-time deaths, though.

Italicised: You say this, and yet the reaction from other players who already know Ash was very much one of interest in his plan, sometimes to the exclusion of wanting to do anything else at all.. I think I was the only one posting scepticism before he'd even posted it :-P I agree that the myth is bigger than the man; I just feel like those perpetuating it are the ones more likely to treat him carefully and therefore want him out of the way, and they're not the newest players, nor are they the heavily logic-based ones. I don't have a lot invested in this as evidence.. it's just an observation that might add up with other things later maybe. You're welcome to disagree!

Underlined: paranoid much? :-P I did say that there's bound to be wifom anyway.

PPE:3

[WestCoastDidds]

So are you the SK?

Nope. But it seems like you might be.

[chairs]

Heads up basically via tonight karaoke night.

[silverspawn]

So are you the SK?

Nope. But it seems like you might be.

Why?

[Swowl]

If there is an SK, then Skum and SK are against each other. So moving focus to the SK hunting side of things would be in the favor of skum.
Because of this we should probably stop focusing on the SK so much. Also, probably merit on looking into those who wanted to focus on the SK side of things.

Checking in. It is late here. More tomorrow.