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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Game over, Scum wins)  (Read 110649 times)

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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #350 on: September 10, 2018, 03:16:04 am »

I've got a long post I'd like to make about chairs, but I don't want to interrupt your train of thought.
Let me know when you're ready for it.  :)
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #351 on: September 10, 2018, 03:17:18 am »

Morning LaLight, morning all. Lynch day?

Morning. Yeah!
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #352 on: September 10, 2018, 03:19:13 am »

I've got a long post I'd like to make about chairs, but I don't want to interrupt your train of thought.
Let me know when you're ready for it.  :)

do it whenever you want, my train of thought is uninterraptorable
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #353 on: September 10, 2018, 03:24:26 am »

I've got a long post I'd like to make about chairs, but I don't want to interrupt your train of thought.
Let me know when you're ready for it.  :)

do it whenever you want, my train of thought is uninterraptorable
I see what you did there and I'm intrigued, anyway, I'll get on with my chairs post.
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #354 on: September 10, 2018, 03:24:56 am »

So chairs and I exchanged a few questions and answers yesterday. And reflecting on it afterwards, I think that my final response to him was an outrageous suggestion based on some flawed reasoning. So I was intending to come on here and apologise for twisting his words and being rather provocative really...

But then he responded to that outrageous suggestion in an unexpected way, which made me go away and think a bit.
I think I'm ready to post now.
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #355 on: September 10, 2018, 03:32:34 am »

In his last response to me, chairs actually agreed with my outrageous suggestion!!
I mean, what, wait a minute, let me read that again:

So you're saying that Awaclus getting quick-hammered (within 36 hours of game start), and then flipping as town, would have been one of the nice outcomes that would have suited you quite well?

Yes - I don’t care for awaclus’s meta at all and a li feel like lynching him d1 is the best way to avoid the argument every day about whether we lynch him, which is what most games I’ve played with him end up doing. I also think it would have exposed a mafia member

So chairs is agreeing with my suggestion that he thinks town!Awaclus being mis-lynched early on day 1 would have been an outcome that suited him quite well. That is an outrageous suggestion he has just agreed to. I mean, surely you only want to see a town member lynched if you actually think that player is detrimental and a liability to the town effort.

The reasons he gives are:
Town1. He wants to avoid having an argument every day about whether or not to lynch Awaclus.
Town2. He thinks if town!Awaclus had been hammered then the hammerer would probably have been scum.

Reason 2 here seems reasonable, and consistent with what chairs said a while back.
Reason 1 (the primary reason?) just seems really weak.

Now let's consider things from a scum!chairs perspective. The reasons are far stronger:

Scum1. Awaclus (and maybe DatSwan) are probably the biggest dangers to the scum team* (unless Awa/DS are scum themselves of course). So lynching Awaclus or DatSwan is a priority for scum!chairs. And veteran chairs knows that Awaclus' playstyle will likely make some of us newbies to want to vote for him.

Scum2. If town!Awaclus had been hammered, then the biggest suspicion would have fallen on the hammerer (at least, chairs has said that's what he thinks would happen). Scum!chairs knows of course that the hammerer would be town. Two town lynches, great.

Scum3. Scum!chairs knows that an early day 1 hammer means the doctors have very little material on which to base their reads. Doctors having good reads seems pretty important to town's effort in this set-up.

In conclusion:
chairs says that an early day 1 Awaclus mis-lynch would have been nice.
Town!chairs has some pretty weak reasons for wanting an early day 1 Awaclus mis-lynch.
Scum!chairs has some pretty powerful reasons for wanting an early day 1 Awaclus mis-lynch.


*Footnote:
If you don't agree that Awa/DS are probably the biggest threats to scum!chairs, consider how the other two veterans (LaLight and Hydrad) introduced themselves:
my reads are usually wrong
I'm not the strongest players so scum usually don't night kill me
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #356 on: September 10, 2018, 03:35:45 am »

Fang, is your vote where you want it?

No, no it isn't.

vote: chairs

It is now.

<squints heavily at DatSwan>
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #357 on: September 10, 2018, 03:48:02 am »

As an example of how the scum!chairs reasons are stronger than the town!chairs reasons, consider the second town reason against the second scum reason.

At first glance it might appear that these are kind of equal strength. Either way, chairs would push hard for a day 2 lynch on whoever quick-hammerred town!Awaclus.
But here's the difference:
town!chairs hopes that the hammerer is scum.
scum!chairs knows that the hammerer is town.

I know that we're talking about a hypothetical situation here, because no-one did actually hammer Awaclus, and we don't even know for sure if Awa is town.
But the point is that chairs has said that he would have been totally ok with town!Awaclus being hammered.
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #358 on: September 10, 2018, 03:50:07 am »

I'm done for now.
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hypercube

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #359 on: September 10, 2018, 04:41:44 am »

That being said - I still think the Raptor wagon is weak af, so I have been doing read through's on those who are on him.

I'm curious about your reasoning here: do you not like the wagon because you're reading Raptor as town, or because you don't like the people on it?
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hypercube

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #360 on: September 10, 2018, 04:58:53 am »

Who is scummy in your book?

The reason I asked was that scum!newbies who know the alignment of other people usually tend to read a lot of people as towns, because they know this is correct and the feel more safe about it. So when a person has a lot of townreads D1, this is suspicious.

This is one way that Simon was caught out in NM12, so it seems worthwhile in a newbie game especially. Did WCD ever answer the original question?
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #361 on: September 10, 2018, 05:04:32 am »

Who is scummy in your book?

The reason I asked was that scum!newbies who know the alignment of other people usually tend to read a lot of people as towns, because they know this is correct and the feel more safe about it. So when a person has a lot of townreads D1, this is suspicious.

This is one way that Simon was caught out in NM12, so it seems worthwhile in a newbie game especially. Did WCD ever answer the original question?

No
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hypercube

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #362 on: September 10, 2018, 05:06:44 am »

Scum!chairs knows of course that the hammerer would be town. Two town lynches, great.

How does scum!chairs know this?

*Footnote:
If you don't agree that Awa/DS are probably the biggest threats to scum!chairs, consider how the other two veterans (LaLight and Hydrad) introduced themselves:
my reads are usually wrong
I'm not the strongest players so scum usually don't night kill me

I'm not sure that this is what we should be basing our judgments of the veteran players abilities on. Hydrad's post in particular seemed somewhat tongue-in-cheek.
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #363 on: September 10, 2018, 05:11:57 am »

I don't like DatSwan's reads. He particularly takes the most active players and bases his reads on them, this seems ike an easy things to do. Especially given that some of the reads are really stretched.
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #364 on: September 10, 2018, 05:12:36 am »

I don't like DatSwan's reads. He particularly takes the most active players and bases his reads on them, this seems ike an easy things to do. Especially given that some of the reads are really stretched.

In other words OMGUS
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #365 on: September 10, 2018, 05:17:59 am »

Scum!chairs knows of course that the hammerer would be town. Two town lynches, great.

How does scum!chairs know this?
Are you suggesting that scum!chairs puts someone at L-1 at the start of day 1, and then his scum partner comes along and hammers? scum!chairs would be livid, surely. I don't think even a newbie scum player would hammer in that situation.
I mean, what would scum!chairs have to say at the start of day 2? "No, I don't think that hammer was suspicious. And no you shouldn't suspect the L-1 guy either."

PPE: 2
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hypercube

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #366 on: September 10, 2018, 05:30:14 am »

Are you suggesting that scum!chairs puts someone at L-1 at the start of day 1, and then his scum partner comes along and hammers? scum!chairs would be livid, surely. I don't think even a newbie scum player would hammer in that situation.
I mean, what would scum!chairs have to say at the start of day 2? "No, I don't think that hammer was suspicious. And no you shouldn't suspect the L-1 guy either."

PPE: 2

I think scum hammering in that situation would be pretty stupid, but town hammering there would be possibly even worse, so I don't think you can discount either situation.

Ultimately I think your reasoning boils down to "Awaclus did something scummy and chairs voted for him, so let's lynch chairs." If someone is going to get lynched based on Awaclus' play I would rather it be Awaclus.
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #367 on: September 10, 2018, 05:40:08 am »

Are you suggesting that scum!chairs puts someone at L-1 at the start of day 1, and then his scum partner comes along and hammers? scum!chairs would be livid, surely. I don't think even a newbie scum player would hammer in that situation.
I mean, what would scum!chairs have to say at the start of day 2? "No, I don't think that hammer was suspicious. And no you shouldn't suspect the L-1 guy either."

PPE: 2

I think scum hammering in that situation would be pretty stupid, but town hammering there would be possibly even worse, so I don't think you can discount either situation.

Scum hammering in that situation would be pretty stupid, but town hammering there would be great (for scum!chairs). Remember, we are considering scum!chairs perspective here.
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #368 on: September 10, 2018, 05:45:34 am »

*Footnote:
If you don't agree that Awa/DS are probably the biggest threats to scum!chairs, consider how the other two veterans (LaLight and Hydrad) introduced themselves:
my reads are usually wrong
I'm not the strongest players so scum usually don't night kill me

I'm not sure that this is what we should be basing our judgments of the veteran players abilities on. Hydrad's post in particular seemed somewhat tongue-in-cheek.

Yeh, ok, I shouldn't be doing that. I thought quoting from what people said of themselves was a way I would hopefully not cause offence.

I'll take the other approach and say that from what I've read of Awaclus, here and in other mafia games on this forum, he sounds dangerous to scum. Seems like he is unhelpful all round, and then there comes a point in the game where he springs out of nowhere to lynch scum accurately.
So, yeh I'm not saying Awaclus is a better player than LL or Hydrad, just more feared by scum, which is different, I think.

Anyway, I suppose the vets themselves will know who they least like to be up against when they're scum.
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hypercube

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #369 on: September 10, 2018, 05:48:55 am »

Are you suggesting that scum!chairs puts someone at L-1 at the start of day 1, and then his scum partner comes along and hammers? scum!chairs would be livid, surely. I don't think even a newbie scum player would hammer in that situation.
I mean, what would scum!chairs have to say at the start of day 2? "No, I don't think that hammer was suspicious. And no you shouldn't suspect the L-1 guy either."

PPE: 2

I think scum hammering in that situation would be pretty stupid, but town hammering there would be possibly even worse, so I don't think you can discount either situation.

Scum hammering in that situation would be pretty stupid, but town hammering there would be great (for scum!chairs). Remember, we are considering scum!chairs perspective here.

Right, I'm just saying that since it's obviously bad for town to hammer there it's unlikely for that to happen.
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #370 on: September 10, 2018, 06:12:30 am »

Are you suggesting that scum!chairs puts someone at L-1 at the start of day 1, and then his scum partner comes along and hammers? scum!chairs would be livid, surely. I don't think even a newbie scum player would hammer in that situation.
I mean, what would scum!chairs have to say at the start of day 2? "No, I don't think that hammer was suspicious. And no you shouldn't suspect the L-1 guy either."

PPE: 2

I think scum hammering in that situation would be pretty stupid, but town hammering there would be possibly even worse, so I don't think you can discount either situation.

Scum hammering in that situation would be pretty stupid, but town hammering there would be great (for scum!chairs). Remember, we are considering scum!chairs perspective here.

Right, I'm just saying that since it's obviously bad for town to hammer there it's unlikely for that to happen.

So if a hammer had happened, you would be pretty convinced that the hammerer was scum. Yes, that is a valid position to hold I think, fine. Good point.
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #371 on: September 10, 2018, 06:30:33 am »

I think I can boil my chairs argument down to this:

From chairs' response, I read his position as: he would have liked an Awaclus hammer to have happened early day 1, especially if it was by scum, but would have been fine also with a town hammer.
It is the bit about him also being fine with a town hammer that makes me think he's scum.

(Note: There are other reads and stuff going on too, relating to chairs, separate from this argument.)
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infangthief

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #372 on: September 10, 2018, 06:40:22 am »

Actually, the other part to my chairs argument is this: his play so far makes total sense from a scum point of view. This bit:

Scum1. Awaclus (and maybe DatSwan) are probably the biggest dangers to the scum team* (unless Awa/DS are scum themselves of course). So lynching Awaclus or DatSwan is a priority for scum!chairs. And veteran chairs knows that Awaclus' playstyle will likely make some of us newbies to want to vote for him.

Scum2. If town!Awaclus had been hammered, then the biggest suspicion would have fallen on the hammerer (at least, chairs has said that's what he thinks would happen). Scum!chairs knows of course that the hammerer would be town. Two town lynches, great.

Scum3. Scum!chairs knows that an early day 1 hammer means the doctors have very little material on which to base their reads. Doctors having good reads seems pretty important to town's effort in this set-up.

I've taken up too much of your reading patience. I'm going to shut up now.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #373 on: September 10, 2018, 06:59:06 am »

Who is scummy in your book?

The reason I asked was that scum!newbies who know the alignment of other people usually tend to read a lot of people as towns, because they know this is correct and the feel more safe about it. So when a person has a lot of townreads D1, this is suspicious.

This is one way that Simon was caught out in NM12, so it seems worthwhile in a newbie game especially. Did WCD ever answer the original question?

No

I did, but it took me a while longer to work out (Chairs, Awa, Raptor). I had taken Lalight’s question as something for me to think about and then share, not to answer right away. My vote has actually not moved at all since I first cast it, so I haven’t been swinging around wildly. Rather, I’ve been trying to be meticulous and read carefully to try to sort out what is actually useful and what just seems to be helpful, but isn’t.

When I hammered Simon in NM12, it was between him and Phy. Phy has said very little that was useful (ala Awa), Simon has said a ton of stuff that was seemingly useful but wasn’t really (like a scum read on me for not knowing the game had started). Then his L-1 response was all “sigh...yeah, well...” and all the seemingly useful stuff unraveled. But it wasn’t until that last post that he went from not really helpful to scummy in my read. So, that’s a long way of saying that I think I read town faster than scum but in my (very) limited experience when I finally do get a scum read, it’s been accurate. I was intent to hammer the other scum in that game, too, when UoS cane over the top and dropped it.
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LaLight

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #374 on: September 10, 2018, 07:10:24 am »

Awaclus (1): DatSwan
Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Hydrad, Uncleeurope
WestCoastDidds (1): chairs
chairs (4): WestCoastDidds, Xxraptorslayer96, LaLight, infangthief
Uncleeurope (2): hypercube, Awaclus

So this is where we're at now
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