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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Game over, Scum wins)  (Read 111488 times)

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Uncleeurope

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #325 on: September 09, 2018, 12:11:40 pm »

Eddie, I know this was a couple of days ago, so things may have changed, but I found this thoughtstream very strange:

5. Chairs seems reeeeaal iffy to me right now... If only he would respond after signing someone away to death. I don't want to vote for him though, I feel like swinging from one wagon to another has no benefits. <snip>

I honestly don't know who to vote for,

Vote: Raptor

I will stick with that until I don't.

You thought chairs was real iffy, but voted for Raptor with no reason?
Since then you've done a bit of moving your vote around (not sure I can quite accuse it of the wagon-swinging you said you wouldn't do), but the bit I find intriguing is that you've never put your vote on chairs. Who was real iffy. What's going on?

Well, I did have a reason, you just snipped it. Raptor hadn’t said anything. I even explained my vote further a few posts down where I was hoping to force him to post by putting pressure on him (even if it was only a little pressure)

Me not voting for chairs is because I was “iffy,” which is me-talk for inconclusive evidence. I honestly think his Awaclus L-1 is more of a town thing to do than scum overall.

The reason Raptor still has my vote is he still hasn’t said anything significant despite having opportunity to. His posts have a strong “yeah, guys, I’m totally here and participating” vibe to them.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #326 on: September 09, 2018, 12:53:53 pm »

I will be active at deadline. Let’s not no lynch
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #327 on: September 09, 2018, 01:07:26 pm »

I'll also be around tomorrow before deadline. We seem to be in a decent place regarding wagon consolidation, although I'm curious if DatSwan plans on voting for someone other than Awaclus. chairs seems pretty towny to me, I'm not planning on voting for him.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #328 on: September 09, 2018, 01:25:36 pm »

Well, I did have a reason, you just snipped it. Raptor hadn’t said anything.

Ah, truly sorry, I missed the reason. It was in the paragraph that began about chairs and I missed the fact that you moved on to Raptor later in the paragraph.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #329 on: September 09, 2018, 01:40:41 pm »

I think I'll be around for deadline?

I'll at least be around for tomorrow for a bit.

All in all though I think I'm pretty satisfied with my vote on raptor right now.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #330 on: September 09, 2018, 02:02:54 pm »

Hi chairs, when you're next online, could you answer a question for me:
Did you intend to incite an Awaclus wagon with your very first post in this game?

I did not.

But the fact that the wagon on Awaclus then formed was something that worked out quite well for you, would you say?

In that it kickstarted discussion on D1 in a way that this forum sometimes lacks? Yes.

Poe: q
Thank you chairs, good answer, I think.
I'm going to persist a bit longer though...
Is there another possible outcome that could have happened from that Awaclus wagon that would also have suited you quite well?

Hmm. Scum quick hammering awaclus or awaclus getting hammered and being scum would have been nice outcomes. All in all though those are unrealistic for most games so I’m happy with how things panned out.

So you're saying that Awaclus getting quick-hammered (within 36 hours of game start), and then flipping as town, would have been one of the nice outcomes that would have suited you quite well?

Yes - I don’t care for awaclus’s meta at all and a li feel like lynching him d1 is the best way to avoid the argument every day about whether we lynch him, which is what most games I’ve played with him end up doing. I also think it would have exposed a mafia member

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #331 on: September 09, 2018, 02:21:49 pm »

My least helpful list is Raptor, Chairs, and Awa.

I’m def against no lynch and will head in raptors direction (I’m currently on Chairs) if he continues to be elusive.

I’ll be chilling in the airport tomorrow, so somewhat available until I’m flying.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #332 on: September 09, 2018, 02:26:25 pm »

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #333 on: September 09, 2018, 03:25:11 pm »

Tomorrow (deadline day), I will be available until about 7 hours before the deadline. After that I may have some availability, but I cannot guarantee it. I certainly won't be on at the deadline itself.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #334 on: September 09, 2018, 04:20:33 pm »

Fang, is your vote where you want it?
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #335 on: September 09, 2018, 07:27:41 pm »

Apologies - There are a lot of new players and I have not mentioned it this game - Weekends are essentially almost VLA for me most of the time in regards to content. I have a chance to keep up, but feedback is limited until Sunday evening normally.

That being said - I still think the Raptor wagon is weak af, so I have been doing read through's on those who are on him.

Let's start with the skummiest of my current vibes - Hydrad:

Hydrad:

1) This is them bringing up the doctoring claim idea, directly after they say they don't see a point in looking into it at this stage of the game.

hmm. Actually I can think of a way to make sure they don't target each other. We could do something like doctor chooses to heal someone either 1/2 or 3 spots below them on the signup list. The doctor gets to choose what number to use so that way if scum kill gets blocked they don't know what one was the doctor. But it also means that doctors won't be able to both target each other.

I actually kinda like that idea now that I'm thinking about it.


2) Promoting the idea again. Also, adding in the point that the doctors need to target exactly each other seems like a skum mindset.

but this actually saves us from the case when 2 doctors heal each other which is, well, unlikely. One can still heal the other and we'll have effectively 1 heal that night in this case. Better than 0, but still... I think healing whoever seems townier is a better choice

you have to remember the a doctor can still heal another doctor. its just both doctors can't heal each other.

So we don't even lose a heal in that scenario. The only way we lose a heal is if doctors both heal the same target if we do the 1-4 way.



3) Summary of the below - Hydrad points out that if it the sign up order has all doctors and all skum within the same 4 in a row (it could actually be 5 together, just to be clear), that Skum would not in fact gain any information. This is false - by setting the rules forward that contain the cops to the pools of 4 underneath they get the reverse logic to narrow the pool - also, there is the fact that this set up COULD happen, and then Skum would have (in this particularly small chanced world) less information then they normally would.... orrrrr we just do random and there are no odds. Which is what he ended up conceding to.

I'm fine with random if thats how we want it. But I would like to point out your theory has some flaws about how it can work.

I'll just make a super basic setup.

1. doc
2. doc
3. vt
4. vt
5. vt
6. vt
7. vt
8. vt
9. scum
10. scum

so in this scum could pick numbers 5-8. lynch 7. cop 6 and kill 8.


From here, it could go down a few ways:
a) NK target dies, Cop result is a VT - Skum now has learned Doctor is either Player 1 or Player 10. Bad for us.
b) NK target lives, Cop result is a VT - Skum now has learned a Doctor must exist within Player 1 or Player 10. They don't get the kill, but still worse then random.
c) NK target dies, Cop result is a Doctor - Skum gets a kill and knows who one of the Doctors are. Worse case scenario for us.
d) NK target lives, Cop result is a Doctor - Skum doesn't get a kill, but finds the Doctor. Worse than random.



4) Why post this? I have thought about it and I cannot see how putting this out there would "help" skum. Only thing I could think of was maybe the lack of stated reads/stating you may lie about your reads early on could be used later in the game. Still though, def would assume reads lists are more valuable to skum then not having them. So, I guess this is townish?

on break so just a quick post about day1 reads. Especially if mcmc is reading this because I kinda share the opinion of him now. Awaclus probably likes this also? Anyways.

On day 1 I don't know if we should so openly give full read lists. As I think it doesn't help town that much but still can give scum info on who they might wanna nightkill or who they can push to lynch. On day2 and beyond I'm fine with read lists but I now believe they help scum more then town day 1




5) Agrees with Awaclus about reads list thing... and then votes Raptor for either no reason or something I am not getting.

on break so just a quick post about day1 reads. Especially if mcmc is reading this because I kinda share the opinion of him now. Awaclus probably likes this also? Anyways.

On day 1 I don't know if we should so openly give full read lists. As I think it doesn't help town that much but still can give scum info on who they might wanna nightkill or who they can push to lynch. On day2 and beyond I'm fine with read lists but I now believe they help scum more then town day 1

Even D2 and beyond, I think it's important to at least fabricate some of the crucial reads in your read list. Scum knowing your reads matters the most near the end game, when they're trying to decide who to keep alive for LyLo.

Old me would not believe that I would kinda agree with you here. But I'm starting to think your style is better then I first thought.

Vote: raptor


Town Points:
- Effort put into the plan and the logic behind the reasoning of it.
- I guess pointing out the thing about reads lists early in the game.

Skum Points:
- All the doctoring plan stuff - Brought it up, obviously thought it through, then in the end just admits "oh yeah random would be better".
- The Raptor vote.
- Also, there is just something about their general need to appeal to other players this game that is throwing me off.

Vote: Hydrad
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #336 on: September 09, 2018, 08:16:09 pm »

LaLaight:

1) This is within minutes of LL's first meaningful post in the game (#109, LL's 11th in the game).In the post they point out that it is L-3 instead of L-2, because they thought there were 9 players in the game and not 10. This pings me as a potential slip. Reasoning, is a little weak, but also IDK how you would miss there are 10 players. Most slips are normally noticed in a more complex fashion, but I have found generally in regards to VCA - specifically when players mess up on the math because they are thinking as they would when talking in their Skum QT instead of in the forum. Example: In a 10 player game skum is going to plan stuff based on an 8 player pool of choices (10 players minus 2 skum). To lynch out of 8, you need 5.
That being said, he could of also just made a mistake about the setup I guess.

Everyone seems so nice....it’s hard to wrap my mind around the fact that two of you are plotting to kill us! Gads!
woah I had no idea there is a word "gad" in english. In Russian it means "a very bad guy" as well. This is awesome.
Also I'm russian for those of you who doesn't know or who cares. My english is good but sometimes I struggle with exact thoughts to express.
Also there is 10 players, I was sure it's 9. This means Awaclus is only on L-3


2) LL coming up with the 4 person down correction to the plan. Then pointing out that BOTH docs have to hit each other to negate the action. This is towny. There had been no time passed yet, so to say at this point they hadn't thought it all the way through to the downsides and were just brainstorming in the moment is kind of a concept I am comfortable believing.

actually up to 4 places down from themselves. Say, doctors are 1 and 6, then 1 can heal 2,3,4,5 and 6 can heal 7,8,9,10. In no way doctors will choose each other
but this actually saves us from the case when 2 doctors heal each other which is, well, unlikely. One can still heal the other and we'll have effectively 1 heal that night in this case. Better than 0, but still... I think healing whoever seems townier is a better choice



3) The first part here is whatever - either an excuse or genuine. The second part I take as townish though. I would expect most people to act the way Awaclus did to my accusation about those that were on board with the plan. LL instead points out that they disagree it makes everyone that had something to do with the plan skum. This is less defensive to self, and more it seems to come from what a town mindset would be as town that had just been contributing to the idea and believes others could be doing the same. I also still think there is skum on the agree wagon for the plan though.

Oh, i was just glad there was a plan. I am a really bad setup speculator and usually i leave it to smarter people, thanks Swan

I don’t agree this plan makes half the game scum


5) Follows up a skum read list of Eddie, Chairs, and Thief and includes Raptor "because lurking is his skum meta". IDK if LL has only played with Raptor or not, but Raptor just lurks in general, not as a specific faction. He is also, because of this plus his newness, a great mislynch target for skum to randomly throw in the pool early on.

in case of Eddie it is a gut feel and not liking lying town in any way, WCD seems much more enthusiastical than I remember her to be and also she asked for a coach. Chairs is scummy for putting Awaclus on L-1 and disappearing. Also Raptor is lurking and this is his scum meta iirc


4) This is kind of skummy. LL is listed on the town block and then asks for skum reads. Creates great range if LL is skum when gathered with other read information.

I can't say that I have much of a read on Awaclus at all. Mostly because of the non-response to L-1. It seems like some of the folks are relying on his playstyle, which he says is super laid back. So, it makes it even harder to get a read.

Thinking over plans and asking about them in a game with newcomers isn't scummy, its learning. When we played last, there was a lot more overt teaching from some of the vets. That is not happening here (which is fine) but our relative newness does mean that posts like Swan's and Hydrad's are super helpful for thinking about how a particular plan may actually play out. So I am reading all that as neutral.

My townie thoughts right now are Eddie, Fang, LL, and Hydrad.

Who is scummy in your book?



6) Potentially could matter later after flips - Goes Chairs over Raptor when Raptor is already on Chairs and Chairs is not on Raptor - putting Raptor at L-2 and Chairs at L-3.

Checking in. I don’t think Eddie’s response was too townie, but chairs voting for WCD is just terrible. How about vote: chairs after all


Town Points:
- Content regarding the Doctor Plan def could be from a town PoV
- Defending the block of players regarding the doctor plan instead of just self

Skum Points:
- First post potential slip (maybe... lets say like half a point)
- Asking for the skum reads from a new player after they put them on their town block


I want to say that their inflated post count due to random converstaional stuff is skummy... but it isn't. LL just kind of does that a lot. I have seen the same play style from them as all three (skum, town, and SK).
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #337 on: September 09, 2018, 08:36:59 pm »

WCD:

1) WCD bringing up the doctoring plan. No idea if this is meant as helpful or if it is skummy. They are new, so I wanna lean helpful... however the inception of the idea is skummy.

So, Eddie's nod to doctoring suggests that we might want to think some about how the Docs work since if they seek to protect one another, they nullify their power, right? Without actually outing the Docs, obvi.

Or is it too soon to think about that? (Full disclosure: I work from home on Wednesdays so I have more time today than I will later in the week and as a result, I'm thinking more now than I will have time to think later. Which means it's totally okay to tell me to slow my roll.)


2) This is the "skum slip" post. Point to be made here - did role pms go out and then the new players got to opt in/out on a coach, or did they have to decide before they knew their alignment? Important because if anyone is potentially reading this as a slip... if they had to choose to have a coach or not FIRST, then there is no way that this is a slip.


Good morning!  I’ve got to get to work and teach a couple of classes but I’ll have a minute after that to catch up.

I appreciate infang, hydrad, and swan laying out pros and cons of having a plan. I’m cool with no plan or a plan or whatever. It just seemed notable that the town PR canceled each other and wondered if coordination was necessary. But I’m compelled that the chances of that are minimal, at least for the time being.

LL, if I’m reading scummy, that is 100% one of your previously noted off reads. I was more enthusiastic yesterday than the last time I played because, we’ll, last time I didn’t know the game had started because newb. This time I knew it was time to go!

You’ll laugh when you read my coaching qt. It has questions like “what is copped?” I’m hoping the coach will help make me more savvy. Also, I wouldn’t need a coach at all if I was scum because I’d have a partner. In fact, that might be a reason to squint at the newbs who eschewed the opportunity.



3) To note the Town Block

My townie thoughts right now are Eddie, Fang, LL, and Hydrad.



4) When I was new a mistake I made as skum, or maybe not a mistake... but it was def my mindset... was to ensure I included a partner in my reads in case I flipped. Means nothing right now, but should be noted.

what about if you were scum along with another newbie?

You caught a scumslip I was talking about!
I don't think there was a scumslip. Seemed like a very townie response to me.

Supertownie, that's me! So far my meta is that she is super townie.

Definitely not a scumslip. I hadn't thought much about if I had been scum and it had been with another newb that I might have still wanted a coach. That scenario (coach and partner) seems really complicated to me to manage (I am usually doing this on my phone so having many tabs open is hard). I have been a coach advocate since the idea was introduced. I was basing that desire off of the conversations the scum had in the previous game, which were really helpful for me to read in retrospect. As far as my coach, I like having a question-answerer and I am also liking getting to know someone in this community a little bit better without having to be suspicious of him. Iguanaiguana knows stuff, is awesome, and likes cats.

Awaclus....I can't say that I find him scummy one way or another, but I don't find him at all helpful. Which is not awesome. My vote is still on Chairs, based on his first post when he called us all scummy, which was sort of randomly assigned since it was really early on, but he has done nothing to cause me to move it. He is also not helpful. Not helpful is as close to scummy as it gets.

I find Swan helpful. LL somewhat helpful. Eddie and Fang helpful. That makes them townie for me.

Hyper, Raptor, and Hydrad....don't know.

Then recently there is just asking fang if they like there vote where it is and calling out not active players... which is whatever.

No points needed. Not looking here today, nor do I believe anyone else is.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #338 on: September 09, 2018, 08:41:02 pm »

so yeah. I would still prefer Awaclus, but Hydrad would be my second.
Just so it is said - not a fan of no-lynch.
If I cannot rally support for Awaclus or Hydrad I will vote towards the end of DL on Chairs/Raptor/Eddie if those are still the only viable wagons.

Also, for the new players, when we get close to deadline, it is generally a favorable idea to state what your availability will be at that point.

I will be here for the 6ish hours up to deadline.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #339 on: September 09, 2018, 09:28:07 pm »

If I have done my time maths correctly I should be available right around the deadline, and probably for a few hours before.

If Awa, or Raptor die I would be fine with it.

Also fine with Hydrad now that Swan brought him up again. Went and reread his stuff and it is semi-contentless.

I also get paranoid when people trust me. It makes me nervous.

Well, I would like one of those guys to die, but am also willing to throw someone else into the fire if need be. No-lynching is not an option.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #340 on: September 09, 2018, 09:43:00 pm »


Thanks, Swan, for the time and effort. I’ll read in the morning when I’m a bit more focused.

I don’t think Awa is a bad choice, but Chairs still seems not helpful, too.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #341 on: September 10, 2018, 02:43:05 am »

Vote Count 1.9

Xxraptorslayer96 (2): Hydrad, Uncleeurope
Hydrad (1): DatSwan
chairs (3): WestCoastDidds, Xxraptorslayer96, LaLight
Uncleeurope (4): infangthief, hypercube, Awaclus, chairs

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch. Day 1 ends at Sep 10, 18:00 forum time. That is in 15h 17m.

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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #342 on: September 10, 2018, 03:05:11 am »

right, LaLight's coming to the rescue
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #343 on: September 10, 2018, 03:08:34 am »

hmmmm I don't really want to vote for Eddie rn, though I will if it comes to it. Also I don't want to vote for Raptor for obvious reasons
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #344 on: September 10, 2018, 03:09:41 am »

deadline is at 1am my time... I will try to be there
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #345 on: September 10, 2018, 03:10:12 am »

chairs is where I'm at, but I would be open for hypercube
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #347 on: September 10, 2018, 03:12:03 am »

how is confusing number of players a scumslip? I played some newbie games, both here and not here and they always had 9 players. I also reread NM8 lately, it had 9 as well as silver as a mod. I'm just curious
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #348 on: September 10, 2018, 03:14:38 am »

Morning LaLight, morning all. Lynch day?
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Re: Newbie Mafia 13: Adventure Time Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #349 on: September 10, 2018, 03:14:59 am »

4) This is kind of skummy. LL is listed on the town block and then asks for skum reads. Creates great range if LL is skum when gathered with other read information.

I can't say that I have much of a read on Awaclus at all. Mostly because of the non-response to L-1. It seems like some of the folks are relying on his playstyle, which he says is super laid back. So, it makes it even harder to get a read.

Thinking over plans and asking about them in a game with newcomers isn't scummy, its learning. When we played last, there was a lot more overt teaching from some of the vets. That is not happening here (which is fine) but our relative newness does mean that posts like Swan's and Hydrad's are super helpful for thinking about how a particular plan may actually play out. So I am reading all that as neutral.

My townie thoughts right now are Eddie, Fang, LL, and Hydrad.

Who is scummy in your book?

The reason I asked was that scum!newbies who know the alignment of other people usually tend to read a lot of people as towns, because they know this is correct and the feel more safe about it. So when a person has a lot of townreads D1, this is suspicious.

Moreover, I didn't even see I am there if you're willing to believe me
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