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Who deserves MVP?

Awaclus
- 2 (16.7%)
McMcsalot
- 5 (41.7%)
pingpongsam lol
- 5 (41.7%)

Total Members Voted: 12


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Author Topic: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Game Over, Town Wins!)  (Read 6416 times)

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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #925 on: September 10, 2018, 03:19:52 pm »

Dsell as well.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #926 on: September 10, 2018, 03:25:27 pm »

Maybe an important post, gkrieg gives his last reads, at this point it's likely he's going down, though not certain.

Sorry guys not going to have time to reread and then I知 leaving tomorrow. LaLight and Joseph are townie. Awaclus and mcmcsalot also townie, but I知 less sure of those two. Galz disappeared when a wagon was formed on him and is probably scum.

I still think Robz wanting a quickhammer was scummy D1

Datswan is the scummiest of the cops, e was only scummy for the hammer D1 but has had a townie D2.

No idea on Hydrad and DSell was just scummy for the coaching although I feel like he has honestly been scum hunting so I知 reading townier on him now.

He gives a mixed read on E, whom he knows is mafia. His next-most-mixed read is on Dsell.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #927 on: September 10, 2018, 03:26:03 pm »

This post looks an awful lot like a desperate plea from Galz to his scum partner to try a little harder here.

unvote

Ugh

I'll revote if directed to by Mcmc.

e, if you're town, don't just let this be thing:
E has really rolled over here, so I'm betting he is scum.

I want to view a narrative for scum!Swan, which I think less likely, and for scum!LL whom, with his scummate, double framed cops last night.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #928 on: September 10, 2018, 03:27:39 pm »

Yeah, Galz is the only one who puts in any effort whatsoever to derail the E lynch, this is sort of a lynchable offense on its own, given the lack of any other evidence that really moves me one way or another.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #929 on: September 10, 2018, 03:29:23 pm »

I guess the question becomes, why would Galz bother defending E a bit, just to revote (and hammer him) later? I think this could be "next-level" scum!Galz play, actually. Because, you know, weakly defending a player just to lynch him anyway seems like a poor move for scum, but then it becomes a great move for scum if we all treat it as a bad move for scum and thus a move scum wouldn't make.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #930 on: September 10, 2018, 03:30:28 pm »

I guess the question becomes, why would Galz bother defending E a bit, just to revote (and hammer him) later? I think this could be "next-level" scum!Galz play, actually. Because, you know, weakly defending a player just to lynch him anyway seems like a poor move for scum, but then it becomes a great move for scum if we all treat it as a bad move for scum and thus a move scum wouldn't make.

Correction: This was an L-1 vote, not a hammer. Joseph hammered.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #931 on: September 10, 2018, 03:32:08 pm »

I guess the question becomes, why would Galz bother defending E a bit, just to revote (and hammer him) later? I think this could be "next-level" scum!Galz play, actually. Because, you know, weakly defending a player just to lynch him anyway seems like a poor move for scum, but then it becomes a great move for scum if we all treat it as a bad move for scum and thus a move scum wouldn't make.

Correction: This was an L-1 vote, not a hammer. Joseph hammered.

Corrected AGAIN, it was DatSwan, not Joseph who hammered.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #932 on: September 10, 2018, 03:36:55 pm »

Re-read finished. I have no clue, it could be any of the three. Dsell and Galz both have some things that make them decently townie and some things that make them decently scummy. Joseph has done very little all game, and I suppose has a mildly scummier record than I remembered. I don't really know what kind of play I expect from scum!Joseph though. Man, I'm lost.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #933 on: September 10, 2018, 03:37:24 pm »

Sure would be nice to get some participation from others.
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Joseph2302

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #934 on: September 10, 2018, 03:43:23 pm »

Re-read finished. I have no clue, it could be any of the three. Dsell and Galz both have some things that make them decently townie and some things that make them decently scummy. Joseph has done very little all game, and I suppose has a mildly scummier record than I remembered. I don't really know what kind of play I expect from scum!Joseph though. Man, I'm lost.
Joseph is just low on the post counts most of the time
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Mafia Stats:
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #935 on: September 10, 2018, 03:44:43 pm »

I think that Dsell is the towniest of the 3.
Obviously we want to lynch scum today, but we do get 2 shots at it, so my current preferences would be Robz & Galz
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Mafia Stats:
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #936 on: September 10, 2018, 03:47:01 pm »

I think that Dsell is the towniest of the 3.
Obviously we want to lynch scum today, but we do get 2 shots at it, so my current preferences would be Robz & Galz

You "think" this but provide no reasoning for it. We need more at this point.
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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #937 on: September 10, 2018, 03:48:29 pm »

I keep second-guessing myself. E's strategy going into Day 3 was abysmal. His first statement right off the bat was so scummy. I sort of expect a Galz/E scumteam to have come up with something better than that. Bleh.

Hey mcmc, I am beyond the point where I can just ponder these things myself, I think we should hash this out together, assuming your (accurate) town read on me persists.
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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #938 on: September 10, 2018, 04:18:58 pm »

Beginning my reread now.
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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #939 on: September 10, 2018, 04:36:26 pm »

also I am surprised Robz, Joseph and gkrieg are in this game
So am I. I'm here, I've posted some reads.
And I think we should lynch VT for all the reasons mentioned before (that I don't feel the need to repeat).

But going back to D1, Robz pushed that quickhammer a lot. And has done nothing else this game. So, Vote: Robz

I agree a lot with Joseph here.

vote: Robz

This interaction makes me think Robz is likely town. My read on Robz all game has been relatively neutral all game but Gkrieg hopped on this wagon early and immediately - it could be bussing but it strikes me as something he wouldn't do on a scumpartner.

Gkrieg does change his vote to Galz (without explanation) not too much later before when Gkrieg wasn't even really a lynch candidate.
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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #940 on: September 10, 2018, 05:11:32 pm »

Sorry guys not going to have time to reread and then I知 leaving tomorrow. LaLight and Joseph are townie. Awaclus and mcmcsalot also townie, but I知 less sure of those two. Galz disappeared when a wagon was formed on him and is probably scum.

I still think Robz wanting a quickhammer was scummy D1

Datswan is the scummiest of the cops, e was only scummy for the hammer D1 but has had a townie D2.

No idea on Hydrad and DSell was just scummy for the coaching although I feel like he has honestly been scum hunting so I知 reading townier on him now.

So in this post of Gkrieg's as he's going down he said Galz is scummy and Joseph is town. Also leaned scum on Robz. This is major WIFOM, but could this be as simple as trying to give town cred to his partner Jo and make townies Robz and Galz seem more suspicious? Not that anyone would give credence to these reads after he flipped, but it wasn't a totally sure thing that he would be lynched at that point. Gkrieg's whole game at this point was about sowing chaos, so I don't give a TON of credence to these reads, but it is interesting to me.

(He gave me a towny read to mcmc and me, and a neutral read on e, so there were some reads that ended up lining up with reality in there too).
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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #941 on: September 10, 2018, 05:21:08 pm »

Damn every person alive reacted pretty immediately to e's claim saying "yeah duh he's scum let's lynch him." So someone was bussing, but it's super unclear who.
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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #942 on: September 10, 2018, 05:40:08 pm »

vote: 2.71828..... and i think Galz is second

You'll be disappointed - but I can't recall you ever once reading me correctly, so there's that.

I mean.. yeah, I am unable to read anyone correctly :)

To be fair, from a reads perspective I find you way scummier than e, but from a logical perspective I just believe that e is scum - so if I'm right about that then my reads aren't thur greatest either.

At least if e is scum, town can lynch me tomorrow without a heck of a lot of consequence. 7 alive consisting of: 1 scum, 2-3 IC's, and 3-4 unknowns.

Also:

DatSwan, we need to split vts into 3/2 sets to not cop same target again and not give an idea who to frame

Here, I'll do it.

DS cops between Robz, Galz, joseph
LL cops either Dsell or hydrad.

This is bad and Robz should feel bad. If Robz is scum with e, what he's essentially saying is "I'm going to kill Datswan tonight so I can't be copped, and then I'll frame randomly between Dsell/Hydrad and hope to set up an easy mislynch tomorrow, buying myself an extra day to get rid of the last cop."

I would suggest either you two come up with something on your own, or leave it to chance that you won't collide again on 1-in-5 odds.
Town on Galz and scum on Robz. I agree this plan from Robz is so flawed and easy for scum to manipulate

My feelings on Joseph have been so mild in this game. I feel like Galz has been the logical center of the game, Robz has been very bold and sometimes I've strongly agreed or found him towny, and other times I've strongly disagreed or found him scummy. But Joseph has held opinions but never strong or bold ones. He's had some takes but nothing groundbreaking or memorable. Same with votes. The quote above - I agree with it and it seems towny. And that's the situation I'm in with a lot of his posts. They seem generally good, generally towny, generally sensible. But because he's never held controversial or bold or new stances, it almost still feels like he's lurking by just blending into the background.

Despite feeling like he is slightly towny here there and everywhere, when we come down to the end like this I have to ask if his play could fit into a go-with-the-flow style of mafia play where the mafia player tells themselves, "I am going to pretend I'm a townie this game as if have no special knowledge. By making genuinely pro-town points, rather than being intentionally deceptive, I will be indistinguishable from town and difficult to find through scumhunting."
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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #943 on: September 10, 2018, 05:42:49 pm »

When it comes to Joseph, I may also be biased because I have a relatively extensive history with each other player that's alive but have been played with Joseph or read any of his games. I can't say how this bias is affecting my reads but I should acknowledge that it's probably there.
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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #944 on: September 10, 2018, 06:20:57 pm »

Finished my reread through today. I may go back and try to do some more close reading to certain people/days. One thing that is a bit of a bummer is that in this game we don't have a ton of analyzable interactions between confirmed scum who knew they were scum.

3 scum total - there was gkrieg, who was traitor and unknown to scum. He gave some reads as he was going down (not super trustworthy) and pushed for lynches on Robz, Galz, and me - especially Robz (town points for Robz).

Then there was e, who didn't really give a lot of reads throughout the game. As far as others' reads on him - he got flak for being the hammer on PPS day 1, but then when he claimed cop that really affected the reads on him. That is, until he claimed to have investigated DatSwan at the start of day 3, at which point EVERYONE almost simultaneously called him out as scum. Someone was bussing, but it's hard to discern who.

So overall for a game of this size, I feel like there are fewer interactions with confirmed scum for us to analyze than usual.

I do not have a scummy read on anyone. My favored lynch at this point is probably Joseph, followed by Robz. In my reread, everything of Galz' that seemed towny before still seemed pro-town. I really do think he's put work in to do as well for town as he could. Robz may be right that this is a super-gambit, but Galz and his analysis have never appeared to come to any anti-town results.*

It's worth mentioning that a LOT of confirmed town players had scum reads on Robz, and most of them are now dead. And like, I could maaaybe see it. I'm sure the speccy QT is screaming at me to be calling for a Robz lynch. But Robz has really put himself out there. He's been on every lynch and pushed most of them aggressively. To be THAT bold in calling for PPS and Gkrieg to be lynched (while assuming that Gkrieg was town) seems like risky scum play to me. Plus there are the other town points that I've mentioned in my analysis thus far today.

It's possible that Robz is scum, but it doesn't seem as likely as the semi-passive, relatively quiet Joseph, who practically no one has voted for all game because he hasn't made much splash.

*With the possible exception that the setup analysis from Galz and I on day 1 and 2 could have been directing the traitor on his part. I don't really buy this though, because scumGalz would have known that his scumpartner e was totally screwing up all of our analysis by claiming cop.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #945 on: September 10, 2018, 07:47:54 pm »

Help us, mcmc, you are our only hope.
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Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #946 on: September 10, 2018, 08:57:11 pm »

Honestly, it feels like a craphoot here - the remaining scum has played well in keeping their distance, and the same can be said for e & Gkrieg.

I'm a little unhappy that people have placed their full reads on the table today, because I think it helps scum tailor their lynch order preference - and tells them who/how they want to play to tomorrow.

That said, since it's out there, a summary of lynch preference orders as has been stated:

Joseph: Robz -> Galz -> Dsell
Galz: Joseph -> _____ -> _____
Dsell: Joseph -> Robz -> Galz
Robz: Hasn't settled on any preference. Wants mcmc to decide for him (maybe that's a little harsh, but c'mon man. I know the choices aren't easy - but come to your own conclusions. You gotta do better than "I have no clue, it could be any of the three.")
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #947 on: September 10, 2018, 09:53:03 pm »

I didn't say I wanted mcmc to decide for me, sheesh. I said I wanted his input.
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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #948 on: September 10, 2018, 09:56:17 pm »

Also, it's kind of weird to get on me for not posting my full ranking, after you just said doing the full read helps scum (which I don't really agree with, but you said it, not me.) Also, you agree this is a crapshoot, but then you chide me for saying it could be any of the three.
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Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Five!)
« Reply #949 on: September 10, 2018, 10:08:17 pm »

Also, it's kind of weird to get on me for not posting my full ranking, after you just said doing the full read helps scum (which I don't really agree with, but you said it, not me.) Also, you agree this is a crapshoot, but then you chide me for saying it could be any of the three.

I knew you were gonna bring those together - I didn't mean you should have all your reads together (or if you do, posted) - but who you prefer above the other two should be clear by this point, instead of waiting for mcmc to come in to direct you - as he has the least amount of information to go on, and access to the exact same posts that you do for rereads.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9
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