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Poll

Who deserves MVP?

Awaclus
- 2 (15.4%)
McMcsalot
- 5 (38.5%)
pingpongsam lol
- 6 (46.2%)

Total Members Voted: 13


Pages: 1 ... 30 31 [32] 33 34 ... 44  All

Author Topic: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Game Over, Town Wins!)  (Read 123295 times)

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mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #775 on: September 04, 2018, 10:29:16 am »

Okay actually yes lynching 2.7 is the right move.

I will figure out what targets/groups lalight and swan should aim at.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #776 on: September 04, 2018, 10:39:56 am »

Day 1 final vote count
Lalight (1): Awaclus
gkrieg13 (1): Hydrad
pingpongsam (7): faust, McMcsalot, Joseph2302, Robz888, Lalight, gkrieg13, 2.71828...

not voting (4): Dsell, DatSwan, pingpongsam, Galzria

Day 2 Final Vote Count
Galzria (1): gkrieg13
Robz888 (3): Joseph2302, Hydrad, Lalight
gkrieg13 (6): McMcsalot, Robz888, 2.71828..., Dsell, DatSwan, Awaclus

not voting (1): Galzria
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #777 on: September 04, 2018, 10:46:17 am »

If 2.7 flips scum

DatSwan should investigate one of Joseph and robz
Lalight should investigate one of dsell and hydrad


If 2.7 flips town

DatSwan investigate one of Joseph/robz/dsell
Lalight investigate one of Joseph/robz/hydrad
Lalight should claim first tomorrow.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

LaLight

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #778 on: September 04, 2018, 10:50:03 am »

If 2.7 flips scum

DatSwan should investigate one of Joseph and robz
Lalight should investigate one of dsell and hydrad


If 2.7 flips town

DatSwan investigate one of Joseph/robz/dsell
Lalight investigate one of Joseph/robz/hydrad
Lalight should claim first tomorrow.

And Galz? You limit scum options
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Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #779 on: September 04, 2018, 10:50:43 am »

My reasoning has lots to do with the quicklynch that I think is rather informtive. Mafia had nk awareness that gkrieg was traitor. The quicklynch is almost guaranteed not to have both mafia players on wagon. Why pool up like that for a scummy looking quicklynch. Also from gkriegs stance I think he jumped on board knowing no scum were on wagon and scum was likely to hammer. Hence 2.7 doing so.

I am quite confident there is only one scum in Joseph/robz/lalight/2.7
I am fairly confident there is one scum in lalight/2.7
Resulting is relative confidence that robz and Joseph are town.

I think galz or hydrad are the final scum. Based on dsell’s overall towny play.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #780 on: September 04, 2018, 10:55:44 am »

If 2.7 flips scum

DatSwan should investigate one of Joseph and robz
Lalight should investigate one of dsell and hydrad


If 2.7 flips town

DatSwan investigate one of Joseph/robz/dsell
Lalight investigate one of Joseph/robz/hydrad
Lalight should claim first tomorrow.

And Galz? You limit scum options

Sorry I don’t follow? I want to give both cops a pool of two town players so mafia can only kill one cop and frame one town player in he other cops pool and then we have a 50% chance of getting another ic. Adding galz potentially adds a scum result to the pool reducing the chance someone gets a town result.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

LaLight

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #781 on: September 04, 2018, 10:56:32 am »

If 2.7 flips scum

DatSwan should investigate one of Joseph and robz
Lalight should investigate one of dsell and hydrad


If 2.7 flips town

DatSwan investigate one of Joseph/robz/dsell
Lalight investigate one of Joseph/robz/hydrad
Lalight should claim first tomorrow.

And Galz? You limit scum options

Sorry I don’t follow? I want to give both cops a pool of two town players so mafia can only kill one cop and frame one town player in he other cops pool and then we have a 50% chance of getting another ic. Adding galz potentially adds a scum result to the pool reducing the chance someone gets a town result.

hmm ok
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Draws: 1
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LaLight

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #782 on: September 04, 2018, 11:00:10 am »

why should I always be the first to claim
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Wins: 15, 10
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #783 on: September 04, 2018, 11:01:11 am »

why should I always be the first to claim

If 2.7 flips scum it doesn’t matter who claims first I didn’t mean to imply you had to.

If 2.7 flips town you are more likely to be scum than DatSwan so you should
Claim first.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

LaLight

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #784 on: September 04, 2018, 11:01:32 am »

why should I always be the first to claim

If 2.7 flips scum it doesn’t matter who claims first I didn’t mean to imply you had to.

If 2.7 flips town you are more likely to be scum than DatSwan so you should
Claim first.

ok then
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LaLight

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #785 on: September 04, 2018, 11:01:50 am »

I disagree, but I can't show you my qt so
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #786 on: September 04, 2018, 11:08:51 am »

I disagree, but I can't show you my qt so

Who do you think is scum between DatSwan and 2.7?
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

LaLight

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #787 on: September 04, 2018, 11:16:17 am »

I disagree, but I can't show you my qt so

Who do you think is scum between DatSwan and 2.7?

I am sure it's 2.7. But if it is not, for some reason, that would mean DatSwan pull out some awesome gambit.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #788 on: September 04, 2018, 11:28:40 am »

Why is Galz not an option for investigation? I really think mcmc's plan is worse than my original one.
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.

Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #789 on: September 04, 2018, 11:52:24 am »

Why is Galz not an option for investigation? I really think mcmc's plan is worse than my original one.

I do too, but because I know his reasoning is flawed. Because I'm town, he's either guaranteeing we get no town results - scum resides as a subset of {Dsell, Hydrad} & {Joseph, Robz}. With Mcmc's plan, scum can shoot the cop investigating two town, and frame the person within his grouping to guarentee a scum result from the remaining cop. Hell, even if I were scum, you've just created a 50/50 that I can frame a scum result on a VT for tomorrow, and given scum results should generally be followed (assuming e is scum here, a scum result tonight represents a 50% likelihood of being scum, which is better odds than lynching elsewhere), that would be a great situation for scum!me.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #790 on: September 04, 2018, 12:05:31 pm »

Today is obviously a lot more complicated than I thought. I have read everything but not closely enough to have strong opinions or input. I definitely want to lynch e and am guessing that's where we'll end up, but I will do a more close reread later on and hopefully have some thoughts.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #791 on: September 04, 2018, 12:20:26 pm »

Actually I think the best cop plan may in fact be to just cop anyone. No direction at all. It’s the only way mafia doesn’t know which cop to kill and which towny to frame.

New plan. lalight and DatSwan both target on of (robz, galz, dsell, hydrad, Joseph)

Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #792 on: September 04, 2018, 12:28:11 pm »

Even better plan: LL, cop one of Dsell, Galz, hydrad.

DatSwan, do whatever moves you.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #793 on: September 04, 2018, 12:42:49 pm »

Even better plan: LL, cop one of Dsell, Galz, hydrad.

DatSwan, do whatever moves you.

No because again if one of dsell/galz/hydrad is scum they kill DatSwan, frame one of dsell/galz/hydrad and how we have only a 33% chance to get a town result.
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #794 on: September 04, 2018, 12:43:14 pm »

LL should investigate within {A, B} 80% of the time, and {C} 20% of the time, while Datswan should investigate within {D, E} 80% of the time, and {C} 20% of the time - each player doing a random die roll each night to determine their subgrouping. Mcmc can assign A through E.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #795 on: September 04, 2018, 12:52:46 pm »

LL should investigate within {A, B} 80% of the time, and {C} 20% of the time, while Datswan should investigate within {D, E} 80% of the time, and {C} 20% of the time - each player doing a random die roll each night to determine their subgrouping. Mcmc can assign A through E.

This is exactly my original plan with a 20% chance DatSwan or lalight investigate you. I absolutely think them choosing any of the vt’s they want is he best bet
Logged
Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #796 on: September 04, 2018, 12:55:16 pm »

LL should investigate within {A, B} 80% of the time, and {C} 20% of the time, while Datswan should investigate within {D, E} 80% of the time, and {C} 20% of the time - each player doing a random die roll each night to determine their subgrouping. Mcmc can assign A through E.

This is exactly my original plan with a 20% chance DatSwan or lalight investigate you. I absolutely think them choosing any of the vt’s they want is he best bet

You did not include any option to investigate me, and thus it is not exactly your original plan, which, due to that omission is significantly worse than what I just proposed.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #797 on: September 04, 2018, 01:41:51 pm »

Eh, pure random is probably better anyway. In any combination of pairings of {2, 2, 1}, unless scum is the {1}, they are given the opportunity to WIFOM us by:

choosing to kill their own investigating cop, while framing the other subset (providing us an 80% chance at a 50% incorrect scum result, 50% IC town result, or a 20% chance of a 100% IC result)

choosing to kill their own investigating cop, while framing the lone player (providing us an 80% chance at a 100% IC result, or a 20% chance at a 100% incorrect scum result)

choosing to kill the secondary cop and framing within their own subset (providing us an 80% chance at a 50% incorrect scum result, 50% accurate scum result, or a 20% chance at a 100% IC result)

If the scum is the {1}, they can kill either cop and frame within the opposite subset (providing us with an 80% chance at a 50% incorrect scum result, 50% IC town result, or a 20% chance of a 100% correct scum result)

The thing is, while generally speaking lynching any returned scum result is the correct play based on them having a strict 50/50 to be scum - it's actually not that difficult for scum to manipulate the majority of scum results to be returned on a framed player rather than themselves. And that in and of itself creates a loophole for scum to allow himself to be copped - and thus WIFOM.

Having no system to LL & Datswan's investigations gives scum no power to manipulate the results. A scum result would represent a true 50/50 - and while they may collide their investigations, they're more likely than not going to be fine.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Hydrad

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #798 on: September 04, 2018, 01:54:23 pm »

I'm all for all random.
Logged
For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Joseph2302

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #799 on: September 04, 2018, 03:23:36 pm »

I'm all for all random.
Agreed. Any plan at this stage just makes the scum kill/frame easier for them to work out and limit options. Right now it's 1 in 5 or 6, but if we segregate groups it could be as high as 1 in 2 of them framing the person that is copped
Logged
Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins
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