Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length

Poll

Who deserves MVP?

Awaclus
- 2 (15.4%)
McMcsalot
- 5 (38.5%)
pingpongsam lol
- 6 (46.2%)

Total Members Voted: 13


Pages: 1 ... 14 15 [16] 17 18 ... 44  All

Author Topic: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Game Over, Town Wins!)  (Read 123303 times)

0 Members and 3 Guests are viewing this topic.

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #375 on: August 27, 2018, 10:08:13 pm »

But like, I seriously doubt LaLight lied about their claim (lied, as in they will come out as insane).  It just does not feel like something LaLight does here as town or scum.

But if you're telling the truth, and bc DatSwan has no incentive to lie, LaLight HAS to be either lying town or scum. (I'm not 100% you're telling the truth and no one should be, but from your perspective)

The only other alternative is that DatSwan is traitor (or even normal scum?) and one of the cops claimed VT. DatSwan just waited a while to determine what claim would be worst for town and went with that.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #376 on: August 27, 2018, 10:12:09 pm »

The only other alternative is that DatSwan is traitor (or even normal scum?) and one of the cops claimed VT. DatSwan just waited a while to determine what claim would be worst for town and went with that.

Given this (probably remote?) possibility I take back what I said about agreeing with Galz 100%. I don't think we can treat DatSwan as a perfectly confirmed sane cop, unless I'm missing something.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #377 on: August 27, 2018, 10:19:22 pm »

Just putting this down.  Going through the options out loud rather than just saying "Datswan is obv!town"

IF Datswan is town, he is obviously telling the truth.  No reason to lie as town in this position.
IF Datswan is scum, he could have claimed insane or sane and the real insane cop claimed VT. 
- claiming insane: The real insane cop that claimed VT could then jump out and create a 1-1, which would be nice I guess.  Maybe they were going for that.  But still a big gamble for a town cop.
- claiming sane: creates the situation we are in now, where LaLight and myself are pulled into question.  Which is a much better place to be than had they claimed insane.  1/3 instead of 1/2 and they look fairly townie due to claiming position.
- claiming VT: life as normal but we know that some random VT is the insane cop.  I would need to run the numbers and such, but then we have 2 straight up ICs and a third cop that could potentially hide out to claim on D4.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #378 on: August 27, 2018, 10:23:14 pm »

Actually, insane cop hiding is brilliant.  I really hope that our insane cop hid intentionally.

Because now we can definitively create another IC for tomorrow.

Lets say all of us sane cops intentionally target player X.  hidden insane cop also targets player X.  tomorrow, player X is either caught scum or an IC.  Or scum kill that target rather than killing a cop, which is what happened with faust last night.  faust would have been IC'ed with verification from sane/insane cops.  Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, killing someone who scum knew would become an IC vs someone who may or may not be a cop.

I like it.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

2.71828.....

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • Shuffle iT Username: irrationalE
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #379 on: August 27, 2018, 10:31:19 pm »

but actually we probably don't need to do that.  We can probably still just randomly  cop and get results and that will work.  the only reason we had to coordinate was to confirm sanity.
Logged
Man. I had four strips of bacon yesterday. Was one automatically undercooked, one automatically overcooked? No, let's put a stop to that right here, all four strips were excellent.

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #380 on: August 27, 2018, 10:49:38 pm »

Just putting this down.  Going through the options out loud rather than just saying "Datswan is obv!town"

IF Datswan is town, he is obviously telling the truth.  No reason to lie as town in this position.
IF Datswan is scum, he could have claimed insane or sane and the real insane cop claimed VT. 
- claiming insane: The real insane cop that claimed VT could then jump out and create a 1-1, which would be nice I guess.  Maybe they were going for that.  But still a big gamble for a town cop.
- claiming sane: creates the situation we are in now, where LaLight and myself are pulled into question.  Which is a much better place to be than had they claimed insane.  1/3 instead of 1/2 and they look fairly townie due to claiming position.
- claiming VT: life as normal but we know that some random VT is the insane cop.  I would need to run the numbers and such, but then we have 2 straight up ICs and a third cop that could potentially hide out to claim on D4.

If DatSwan is scum he had a day to brainstorm the possible outcomes to figure out which claim he thought would be optimal in the situation.

In this situation at this point, I believe e more than LaLight or DatSwan given both claim order and e's analysis of this.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

Galzria

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 956
  • Since 2012
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #381 on: August 27, 2018, 11:04:17 pm »

Just putting this down.  Going through the options out loud rather than just saying "Datswan is obv!town"

IF Datswan is town, he is obviously telling the truth.  No reason to lie as town in this position.
IF Datswan is scum, he could have claimed insane or sane and the real insane cop claimed VT. 
- claiming insane: The real insane cop that claimed VT could then jump out and create a 1-1, which would be nice I guess.  Maybe they were going for that.  But still a big gamble for a town cop.
- claiming sane: creates the situation we are in now, where LaLight and myself are pulled into question.  Which is a much better place to be than had they claimed insane.  1/3 instead of 1/2 and they look fairly townie due to claiming position.
- claiming VT: life as normal but we know that some random VT is the insane cop.  I would need to run the numbers and such, but then we have 2 straight up ICs and a third cop that could potentially hide out to claim on D4.

If DatSwan is scum he had a day to brainstorm the possible outcomes to figure out which claim he thought would be optimal in the situation.

In this situation at this point, I believe e more than LaLight or DatSwan given both claim order and e's analysis of this.

The only problem I have is with e's analysis of the first option in a scum!Datswan scenario:

Scum!Swan knows that a VT is actually a Cop. He knows that cop is insane based on LaLight/e. Unfortunately, he's the ONLY one that knows that. Let's assume there's a world where he's town and has a guilty result, but everything else is setup the same. The cop who has claimed VT here doesn't know his own sanity, because he doesn't know if faust was framed or not. So "in-this-scenario-town-Swan" claims faust to have a guilty result. The unclaimed cop comes forth and says "well actually, I have a guilty result too" - this doesn't actually set up a 1-v-1, as they could BOTH be town and faust was framed. And that is, of course, what scum!swan would argue with a guilty result instead of a town one.

The point is that I don't think it's as cut and dry as e makes it there, and while certainly scum!swan may not have felt he could argue out of setting up a 2-town, 2-guilty scenario, the numbers are still actually more in his favor than against by claiming faust to have a guilty result.
Logged
Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.

Faust has also been incredibly stubborn this game. In other news, it's hot in the summer, and water falls from the sky when it rains.


Mafia Record:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108, M114, M118, M120, M122, DM1, DoM1, OZ2, RM45, RM47, RM48, RM49, RM55
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31, M110, M111, M113, M117, M125, RM3, RM4, RM54
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100, DM3, RM1, RM2, RM48, RM50
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Tr), OZ1, RM55

Total Wins: 30
Total Losses: 20

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #382 on: August 27, 2018, 11:54:48 pm »

Just putting this down.  Going through the options out loud rather than just saying "Datswan is obv!town"

IF Datswan is town, he is obviously telling the truth.  No reason to lie as town in this position.
IF Datswan is scum, he could have claimed insane or sane and the real insane cop claimed VT. 
- claiming insane: The real insane cop that claimed VT could then jump out and create a 1-1, which would be nice I guess.  Maybe they were going for that.  But still a big gamble for a town cop.
- claiming sane: creates the situation we are in now, where LaLight and myself are pulled into question.  Which is a much better place to be than had they claimed insane.  1/3 instead of 1/2 and they look fairly townie due to claiming position.
- claiming VT: life as normal but we know that some random VT is the insane cop.  I would need to run the numbers and such, but then we have 2 straight up ICs and a third cop that could potentially hide out to claim on D4.

If DatSwan is scum he had a day to brainstorm the possible outcomes to figure out which claim he thought would be optimal in the situation.

In this situation at this point, I believe e more than LaLight or DatSwan given both claim order and e's analysis of this.

The only problem I have is with e's analysis of the first option in a scum!Datswan scenario:

Scum!Swan knows that a VT is actually a Cop. He knows that cop is insane based on LaLight/e. Unfortunately, he's the ONLY one that knows that. Let's assume there's a world where he's town and has a guilty result, but everything else is setup the same. The cop who has claimed VT here doesn't know his own sanity, because he doesn't know if faust was framed or not. So "in-this-scenario-town-Swan" claims faust to have a guilty result. The unclaimed cop comes forth and says "well actually, I have a guilty result too" - this doesn't actually set up a 1-v-1, as they could BOTH be town and faust was framed. And that is, of course, what scum!swan would argue with a guilty result instead of a town one.

The point is that I don't think it's as cut and dry as e makes it there, and while certainly scum!swan may not have felt he could argue out of setting up a 2-town, 2-guilty scenario, the numbers are still actually more in his favor than against by claiming faust to have a guilty result.

Maybe I am just tired but I did not fully follow this scenario you laid out. "Let's assume there's a world where he's town and has a guilty result" are you talking about DatSwan here or an unclaimed cop? Why wouldn't an unclaimed cop know their own sanity after 2 people came forward claiming a town result on Faust? I mean maybe they don't know 100% but I don't see the point.

Sorry but I would love if you could rephrase or restate this situation because I feel like understanding this is really important.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

Hydrad

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 142
  • Shuffle iT Username: Hidrad
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #383 on: August 28, 2018, 12:12:31 am »

oh man. this is incredible.

i'll post more thoughts later.
Logged
For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #384 on: August 28, 2018, 12:15:07 am »

We should not lynch inside the cops bc of the chance that all three are cops. The play is still lynch within the vts. This is why i was hesitant to say anything...
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #385 on: August 28, 2018, 12:18:00 am »

LL needs to speak up
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Dsell

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1290
  • He/Him
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #386 on: August 28, 2018, 12:18:38 am »

We should not lynch inside the cops bc of the chance that all three are cops. The play is still lynch within the vts. This is why i was hesitant to say anything...

I, for one, am definitely not trying to lynch inside the claimed cops. However, I think it's good to lay out the potential situations surrounding this. We still have a lot of time during the day to go over all the possibilities and maybe plan for some contingencies, and still do plenty of scumhunting from among the claimed VTs.
Logged
"Quiet you, you'll lynch Dsell when I'm good and ready" - Insomniac


Winner of Forum Survivor Season 2!

Joseph2302

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 858
  • Shuffle iT Username: Joseph2302
  • "Better to be lucky than good"
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #387 on: August 28, 2018, 02:34:26 am »

We should not lynch inside the cops bc of the chance that all three are cops. The play is still lynch within the vts. This is why i was hesitant to say anything...

I, for one, am definitely not trying to lynch inside the claimed cops. However, I think it's good to lay out the potential situations surrounding this. We still have a lot of time during the day to go over all the possibilities and maybe plan for some contingencies, and still do plenty of scumhunting from among the claimed VTs.
Strongly agree with this. In this setup, cops are so important, and so mislynching one would be bad for sure.

And we're not even sure if there is a scum in the claimed cops anyway. Better to try and find the scum in the VT claims, as at least if we mislynch, it's only a VT lost. (Although of course lynching scum would be much better)
Logged
Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #388 on: August 28, 2018, 02:39:25 am »

Alright. I did not mess up or lied about my results and from my perspective e is conf!scum. I just woke up so case will be when i’m at work. But it’s just really obvious.

vote: 2.71828.....
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #389 on: August 28, 2018, 03:15:28 am »

well I have now changed my mind. As thee is literally zero reason for both of you to be doing this as town, one of you is skum.

LL- you need to unvote. We have 5 days left. Do not be the precursor to mislynch (unless that is your intention)
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #390 on: August 28, 2018, 03:20:29 am »

"Other Cop" you need to do an analysis on how this game plays out if we have 3 ICs in play added on the results for upcoming days. 3 Man Lylo at realistic worst. And that is without me knowing the rules and assuming that Traitor and Skum would be known to No vote in showoff to ensure the win - if that is not a thing than it is even better. If you are a cop and you think you are helping by staying quiet you are wrong. You will cost us the game. Please stop being stupid. We forgive you.

with 48 hours left imo we start to wagon either E or LL and hope we are right because... as I stated... if we are wrong.... and lynch a cop... then there is literally nothing that can keep us from losing.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #391 on: August 28, 2018, 03:21:07 am »

"Other Cop" you need to do an analysis on how this game plays out if we have 3 ICs in play added on the results for upcoming days. 3 Man Lylo at realistic worst. And that is without me knowing the rules and assuming that Traitor and Skum would be known to No vote in showoff to ensure the win - if that is not a thing than it is even better. If you are a cop and you think you are helping by staying quiet you are wrong. You will cost us the game. Please stop being stupid. We forgive you.

with 48 hours left imo we start to wagon either E or LL and hope we are right because... as I stated... if we are wrong.... and lynch a cop... then there is literally nothing that can keep us from losing.

Elaboration would be that the second part only goes into play if someone doesn't smarten tf up.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #392 on: August 28, 2018, 03:21:59 am »

ahhhhhhh

how did none of you do the math!
The game was fucking solved to a 50-50.
This was not necessary
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #393 on: August 28, 2018, 03:30:41 am »

well I have now changed my mind. As thee is literally zero reason for both of you to be doing this as town, one of you is skum.

LL- you need to unvote. We have 5 days left. Do not be the precursor to mislynch (unless that is your intention)

What? I am voting conf!scum.
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #394 on: August 28, 2018, 03:31:26 am »

well I have now changed my mind. As thee is literally zero reason for both of you to be doing this as town, one of you is skum.

LL- you need to unvote. We have 5 days left. Do not be the precursor to mislynch (unless that is your intention)

I don’t need to unvote, e is on L-6 i think?
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #395 on: August 28, 2018, 03:32:39 am »

well I have now changed my mind. As thee is literally zero reason for both of you to be doing this as town, one of you is skum.

LL- you need to unvote. We have 5 days left. Do not be the precursor to mislynch (unless that is your intention)

What? I am voting conf!scum.

Jesus man that is the skummiest thing you have ever said.
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #396 on: August 28, 2018, 03:34:12 am »

well I have now changed my mind. As thee is literally zero reason for both of you to be doing this as town, one of you is skum.

LL- you need to unvote. We have 5 days left. Do not be the precursor to mislynch (unless that is your intention)

What? I am voting conf!scum.

Jesus man that is the skummiest thing you have ever said.

2.7 is. confirmed. scum. Why don’t you see it?
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

LaLight

  • Jester
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 774
  • Shuffle iT Username: LaLight
  • Because I'm a potato
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #397 on: August 28, 2018, 03:34:31 am »

Let me get to my computer soon
Logged
Wins: 15, 10
Losses: 11, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 4
Mod/Co-mod: 18

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #398 on: August 28, 2018, 03:35:22 am »

well I have now changed my mind. As thee is literally zero reason for both of you to be doing this as town, one of you is skum.

LL- you need to unvote. We have 5 days left. Do not be the precursor to mislynch (unless that is your intention)

I don’t need to unvote, e is on L-6 i think?

and you are L-7
and I am L-7
so you are not helping
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss

Swowl

  • Pawn
  • **
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1
  • Shuffle iT Username: Swowl
  • Snow.Owl.Duh.
    • View Profile
Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #399 on: August 28, 2018, 03:36:23 am »

or whatever on the L-X part - I am just taking your word that it is L6
Logged
Jesus how did i fuck that up
real good. That’s how
Town:  14 wins, 14 losses (1 MVP)
Skum: 7 wins, 7 losses (1 MVP)
3-Party: 4 wins, 1 loss
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 [16] 17 18 ... 44  All
 

Page created in 0.189 seconds with 23 queries.