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Who deserves MVP?

Awaclus
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McMcsalot
- 5 (41.7%)
pingpongsam lol
- 5 (41.7%)

Total Members Voted: 12


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Author Topic: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Game Over, Town Wins!)  (Read 14805 times)

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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #150 on: August 23, 2018, 01:44:19 pm »

I want to put it out there that I'm not 100% insistent on the cop plan going forward. This setup is new to me and there are definitely a lot of variables - galz is right about that. However, I do give faust some credit for coming up with it - it does seem pretty pro-town to me.

@Galz - I see no reason why we can't do both regular scum hunting as well as some analysis of the setup and roles. More info is generally better.
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Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #151 on: August 23, 2018, 01:49:20 pm »

is that better than regular, interaction based scum hunting?
I don't see where in my plan I suggested to stop scumhunting.

I didn't mean to imply that you did, sorry. A better finish to the line should be:

"We might be able to piece it together based off flips down the line, but even that isn't certain as the framing nature of scum's ability could play havoc".

I mean, let's assume you're killed tonight and flip town: 2 results each are claimed finding you guilty & not guilty. We don't know which is sane and which isn't, as we don't know if you've been framed or not.

Scum knows though, and assuming it's the traitor that claimed the fake result, they know the traitor is one of two people...

And, actually, we can't piece anything together later as cop sanity doesn't flip, so... yeah, I see no upside at all.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Joseph2302

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #152 on: August 23, 2018, 01:52:24 pm »

In my mind there are no cops. We essentially just have some goons to find and a bunch of town distractors are going to try to muck with that effort.

I am not a Cop
What on earth are you doing?
Yes this is stupid. Limiting down the not cops will only help scum find the cops
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #153 on: August 23, 2018, 01:53:18 pm »

Vote: PPS
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

gkrieg13

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #154 on: August 23, 2018, 01:53:25 pm »

We don't know if a cop can target himself (normally, I would assume no but the wording in the PM doesn't make it clear), so having one of the cops be the agreed upon target for investigation could ruin it, and having one of the insane cops killed would ruin it.
Yes, this is why I claimed not Cop. I will be the target. I also have a backup plan for the death of a Cop, but I don't think I want to talk about it today. Suffice to say I should still be checked if a Cop dies.

Oh, I see.

What if scum fakeclaims cop with the sane cop's result, wouldn't that also mess up the plan? We wouldn't know who is sane and who isn't, since there's an equal number of both results, and it is a very safe fakeclaim for scum.

Hey, I'm hoping you mean that scum would fakeclaim with the insane cop's results to create an equal number. There are 2 sane cops and 1 insane cop. So it wouldn't be equal if they claimed sane, it'd be 3-1.

...yeah. I misread the setup to be 2 insane, 1 sane.

Also, if faust is scum, then the results will come back:

Guilty, Guilty, Not-Guilty

Yeah? Same as if, say, faust were town and framed by scum. This would be relevant because traitor, in particular, could claim not guilty and tell scum 50/50 who he is, without telling town anything extra because we don't know if faust is scum, or framed town.

Basically, the point is that scum know faust's alignment (assuming he's not traitor), and if he's town whether or not he's been framed. This makes traitor claiming the missing result a guaranteed 50/50 knowledge for scum....

Am I wrong or missing something?

But, once faust flips, we would know for sure the sanity of all three cops.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #155 on: August 23, 2018, 01:54:48 pm »

I like this plan because it also means faust won’t die N1
So you want to die N1?  ;)

 :'(
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gkrieg13

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #156 on: August 23, 2018, 01:55:43 pm »

BTW, this is town LaLight.

I also want to lynch Joseph real bad, so probably town there too.
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Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #157 on: August 23, 2018, 02:04:59 pm »

We don't know if a cop can target himself (normally, I would assume no but the wording in the PM doesn't make it clear), so having one of the cops be the agreed upon target for investigation could ruin it, and having one of the insane cops killed would ruin it.
Yes, this is why I claimed not Cop. I will be the target. I also have a backup plan for the death of a Cop, but I don't think I want to talk about it today. Suffice to say I should still be checked if a Cop dies.

Oh, I see.

What if scum fakeclaims cop with the sane cop's result, wouldn't that also mess up the plan? We wouldn't know who is sane and who isn't, since there's an equal number of both results, and it is a very safe fakeclaim for scum.

Hey, I'm hoping you mean that scum would fakeclaim with the insane cop's results to create an equal number. There are 2 sane cops and 1 insane cop. So it wouldn't be equal if they claimed sane, it'd be 3-1.

...yeah. I misread the setup to be 2 insane, 1 sane.

Also, if faust is scum, then the results will come back:

Guilty, Guilty, Not-Guilty

Yeah? Same as if, say, faust were town and framed by scum. This would be relevant because traitor, in particular, could claim not guilty and tell scum 50/50 who he is, without telling town anything extra because we don't know if faust is scum, or framed town.

Basically, the point is that scum know faust's alignment (assuming he's not traitor), and if he's town whether or not he's been framed. This makes traitor claiming the missing result a guaranteed 50/50 knowledge for scum....

Am I wrong or missing something?

But, once faust flips, we would know for sure the sanity of all three cops.

Not if he's town, he could be framed. We would know only if he flipped scum.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

faust

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #158 on: August 23, 2018, 02:10:58 pm »

I mean, let's assume you're killed tonight and flip town: 2 results each are claimed finding you guilty & not guilty. We don't know which is sane and which isn't, as we don't know if you've been framed or not.

Scum knows though, and assuming it's the traitor that claimed the fake result, they know the traitor is one of two people...
How would the Traitor know what to claim in your scenario?
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

Hydrad

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #159 on: August 23, 2018, 02:11:16 pm »

Am I missing something? We have 3 cops. 2 are sane one is not. So it doesn't matter if Faust is framed or not as long as a cop doesn't get night killed n1 two people will match their claim and know that they are sane. The only wrench is if scum fakeclaims but once we find scum in that group of cops we once again know what cops are sane. And also once we know what cops are sane even the Insane cop is useful since he knows he's insane and will still get results.

I think the Faust plan is very pro town
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #160 on: August 23, 2018, 02:16:32 pm »

Yeah, I'm wildly in favor of the faust plan, thanks also to PPS for essentially volunteering to be the Day 1 lynch, Vote: PPS.

I second the popular opinion that LL is town.

I'm not willing to say that Galz opposing the plan is scummy, though, I think town!Galz often reaches conclusions that are out of step with other townies.
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Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #161 on: August 23, 2018, 02:24:19 pm »

I mean, let's assume you're killed tonight and flip town: 2 results each are claimed finding you guilty & not guilty. We don't know which is sane and which isn't, as we don't know if you've been framed or not.

Scum knows though, and assuming it's the traitor that claimed the fake result, they know the traitor is one of two people...
How would the Traitor know what to claim in your scenario?

Because there are always 2 results one way, and 1 result the other way.

And the traitor doesn't even have to wait to claim - he can claim anyone he wants. If he guesses right early, it's a 2-2 result split, telling us nothing. If he guesses wrong early it's a 3-1 split, which, advantage town, DOES tell us who is Sane and who is not, and gives us a 1-in-3 scum ratio  instead of 1-in-4, which is essentially the same as random.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #162 on: August 23, 2018, 02:26:39 pm »

Am I missing something? We have 3 cops. 2 are sane one is not. So it doesn't matter if Faust is framed or not as long as a cop doesn't get night killed n1 two people will match their claim and know that they are sane. The only wrench is if scum fakeclaims but once we find scum in that group of cops we once again know what cops are sane. And also once we know what cops are sane even the Insane cop is useful since he knows he's insane and will still get results.

I think the Faust plan is very pro town

"Once we find the scum in that group"

How would you suggest we go about that? 1-in-4 is pretty much equal to random lynching now. Would you suggest we start lynching the cops looking for the scum one?
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #163 on: August 23, 2018, 02:28:43 pm »

Is PPS at 4 votes?

VC please
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

faust

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #164 on: August 23, 2018, 02:28:49 pm »

I mean, let's assume you're killed tonight and flip town: 2 results each are claimed finding you guilty & not guilty. We don't know which is sane and which isn't, as we don't know if you've been framed or not.

Scum knows though, and assuming it's the traitor that claimed the fake result, they know the traitor is one of two people...
How would the Traitor know what to claim in your scenario?

Because there are always 2 results one way, and 1 result the other way.

And the traitor doesn't even have to wait to claim - he can claim anyone he wants. If he guesses right early, it's a 2-2 result split, telling us nothing. If he guesses wrong early it's a 3-1 split, which, advantage town, DOES tell us who is Sane and who is not, and gives us a 1-in-3 scum ratio  instead of 1-in-4, which is essentially the same as random.
It also gives us an IC Cop and (if I wasn't framed and live) an IC me. I'll take those chances.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.

mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #165 on: August 23, 2018, 02:30:14 pm »

I see and understand galz’s concern and I still think the plan is beneficial
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #166 on: August 23, 2018, 02:30:23 pm »

Lots of stuff that I have read, can post more in depth about it later, but I agree with faust's plan.

I may also be in favor of no lynching, but need to think a bit more on that
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Awaclus

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #167 on: August 23, 2018, 02:37:18 pm »

The only wrench is if scum fakeclaims but once we find scum in that group of cops we once again know what cops are sane.

Yeah, the problem with that is that it isn't trivial to find 1 scum in a group of 4 people.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #168 on: August 23, 2018, 02:37:28 pm »

I would be sort of in favor of quick lynching PPS, actually. Take that, long day 1's!
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Hydrad

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #169 on: August 23, 2018, 02:38:29 pm »

We can also have cops claim every day and the day the scum guesses wrong suddenly it's not 1-4 anymore. I guess there is a chance he could keep getting it right but I wouldn't want to be that scum if we decide to do that
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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #170 on: August 23, 2018, 02:43:13 pm »

I am really not sure the PPS slip was a scum slip. It's limiting future fakeclaims later if he is scum. It seems like it was really unthinking, which feels slightly more town. Dumb move, but it's not a lynch I love.
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Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #171 on: August 23, 2018, 02:48:39 pm »

vote: Robz
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #172 on: August 23, 2018, 03:01:16 pm »

I am really not sure the PPS slip was a scum slip. It's limiting future fakeclaims later if he is scum. It seems like it was really unthinking, which feels slightly more town. Dumb move, but it's not a lynch I love.

Well, you should be be aware of this: PPS has done some weird claim things as scum.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #173 on: August 23, 2018, 03:01:52 pm »

vote: Robz

But I didn't even claim to be a weird hybrid third party role that's trying to work with town...
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faust

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day One!)
« Reply #174 on: August 23, 2018, 03:03:38 pm »

I am really not sure the PPS slip was a scum slip. It's limiting future fakeclaims later if he is scum. It seems like it was really unthinking, which feels slightly more town. Dumb move, but it's not a lynch I love.

Well, you should be be aware of this: PPS has done some weird claim things as scum.

This QT is of when I was scum with PPS some games ago. If you read the beginning, it showcases scum!PPS's obsession with claim pretty well.
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Since the number of points is within a constant factor of the number of city quarters, in the long run we can get (4 - ε) ↑↑ n points in n turns for any ε > 0.
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