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Who deserves MVP?

Awaclus
- 2 (16.7%)
McMcsalot
- 5 (41.7%)
pingpongsam lol
- 5 (41.7%)

Total Members Voted: 12


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Author Topic: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Game Over, Town Wins!)  (Read 16094 times)

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Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #725 on: September 03, 2018, 05:15:23 pm »

Also, apologies for my massive absence prior to deadline (close to 48 hours) - I'm in survival mode at work right now with 40% of my staff out of country for 3 weeks. Last week was their first gone, I think settling in to how I'm going to manage to operate without them was the worst of it. Now I've got a gameplan for the next two weeks... while I'll still be exhausted, I won't feel like I'm scrambling every day to figure out what I'm doing.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Joseph2302

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #726 on: September 03, 2018, 05:15:51 pm »

I investigated Datswan and got scum.  Maybe I was framed, as cops make good frame targets since we now know that the fake cop is regular scum not traitor, probably would have investigated a VT had I thought more about it but I just got excited when gkrieg flipped traitor and with my limited access over the weekend went with the first thing that I thought of.

This doesn't feel believable to me.

I'd be very surprised if scum decided to frame a cop.
Yes this seems like lying scum
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Joseph2302

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #727 on: September 03, 2018, 05:16:37 pm »

Once DatSwan has claimed, we can probably just lynch e
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #728 on: September 03, 2018, 05:55:33 pm »

Very much agree that e's explanation was scummy as hell.
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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #729 on: September 03, 2018, 05:59:31 pm »

What's cool is that there's exactly one, and only one, scum in:

Dsell
Mcmc
Galzria
Hydrad
Robz
Joseph

And Mcmc is virtually IC.
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DatSwan

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #730 on: September 03, 2018, 07:53:21 pm »

OK Status Update based on the night and end of day:

1) I no longer believe LL is skum (even before E!'s results) because it was 100% predicated on them being exactly the Traitor.
2) MCMC is confirmed IC. I copped them as well and got a Town result.
3) Awaclus - good play dude.
4) LL I think you messed up a little bit by searching my target. Awaclus stated pretty clearly not to search a cop or to cross targets (the idea being because we cannot find skum 100% bc of framers, we want to give ourselves the highest chance of getting town results we can trust). Either way, I also do not think you are skum, just pointing it out becauuuusssssseeee

E! pretty much has to be skum here. Awaclus was clearly going to flip Insane and GK flipped Traitor. We have a pool of 1/3 and a pool of 1/6. The clear pro town play was to attempt to get cop results we could trust (which are town results) on the pool we need to limit (not the cops).


Then there is just the order of the claim...
LL claims result on MCMC, E! volunteers to claim his result on me. If it is skum!E he knows the only person left is me to claim and I obv didn't cop myself... so this result is safe because if he claims anyone else, and I also picked that person and got a different result - he is screwed.

There is some more to think about though. LL messing up and targeting MCMC is possibly a skum play, but honestly there is only one of them in the 2 of those players and E! is wayyy skummier at this point.

Whatever - everything aside - at least MCMC is IC 100%
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DatSwan

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #731 on: September 03, 2018, 07:56:06 pm »

Nvm my nonsense about E!s result claim - obv if he is skum he would of been able to safely claim a target correcrly
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #732 on: September 03, 2018, 08:05:28 pm »

LL, why did you cop mcmc? That was a mistake, though Iím not sure it makes you more likely to be scum.
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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #733 on: September 03, 2018, 08:12:32 pm »

Vote: e


Honestly not even worried about a quicklynch today lol
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DatSwan

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #734 on: September 03, 2018, 08:12:50 pm »

hm actually let's go ahead and pump the breaks if we are thinking speed lynching E! there are some things that don't like 100% add up.

Let's say he is skum and he chose to fake a skum result on me. What is the play there? Like push for a cop lynch on me, then I flip town... then when E! wakes up claim I had to of been framed? I guess that makes sense.

As opposed to either...
1) Creating an actual IC by giving a result they know to be true. This has the downside of creating an IC. The upside would be that they are 100% safe.
2) Giving a Skum result on a player that is not a cop that they framed last night. This has the downside of it possibly blowing back on them when they flip skum because we will be slightly suspicious... but honestly the player being framed is something that would not be a hard sell. This has the upside of NOT creating an IC, and actually pretty much dictating the lynch target.

Both of those options also do not look nearly as skummy as claiming a result on a cop. Not to mention a skum result in which, if their plan worked, it would be wayyyyyyy easier to get town to lynch a "skum result" outside the cop pool as opposed to trying to get everyone to lynch a cop.


It all comes down to the selection of choose to cop a cop. That is a super skummy thing to claim. But there were like soooooooo many other choices....

The only thing I can think of from an E! is skum narative is that Awaclus found Skum in either Galz or Robz so E! got ahead of a skum result by creating a situation where there is more than one? IDK...
he is probably skum.

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DatSwan

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #735 on: September 03, 2018, 08:29:22 pm »

Maybe he thought it through and figured it was safe bc we never choose to lynch a cop?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #736 on: September 03, 2018, 08:42:18 pm »

SO i still think it's not smart to lynch a cop.

If we are right awesome, we win (based on guarenteed town cop results and ic cops) but if we are wrong we lose a result for tomorrow. Mafia has made the incorrect choice of not killing a cop so they force more results and want us to aim at our own cops.

We absolutely keep aiming at the vt's and forcing mafia to kill cops or let us ic
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Wins: M19, M21, M23, M24, M26, M39, M91, M94, M102, M104, M107, M114, M115
Losses: M20, M22, M25, M27, M30, M31, M35, M38, M40, M42, M46, M60, M90, M93, M96, M98, M100, M101, M106, M111, M113
Winrate: 38.2%(13/34) 29.6%(8/27), 71.4%(5/7)

DatSwan

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #737 on: September 03, 2018, 09:15:52 pm »

SO i still think it's not smart to lynch a cop.

If we are right awesome, we win (based on guarenteed town cop results and ic cops) but if we are wrong we lose a result for tomorrow. Mafia has made the incorrect choice of not killing a cop so they force more results and want us to aim at our own cops.

We absolutely keep aiming at the vt's and forcing mafia to kill cops or let us ic

You are IC... but i wanna point out they did in fact kill a cop
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DatSwan

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #738 on: September 03, 2018, 09:18:03 pm »

SO i still think it's not smart to lynch a cop.

If we are right awesome, we win (based on guarenteed town cop results and ic cops) but if we are wrong we lose a result for tomorrow. Mafia has made the incorrect choice of not killing a cop so they force more results and want us to aim at our own cops.

We absolutely keep aiming at the vt's and forcing mafia to kill cops or let us ic

You are IC... but i wanna point out they did in fact kill a cop

Also i agree with you bc killing outside leaves them with killing one of us or not. Either way works in our favor tomorrow .

That being said - itís like... probably E!
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #739 on: September 03, 2018, 10:07:32 pm »

SO i still think it's not smart to lynch a cop.

If we are right awesome, we win (based on guarenteed town cop results and ic cops) but if we are wrong we lose a result for tomorrow. Mafia has made the incorrect choice of not killing a cop so they force more results and want us to aim at our own cops.

We absolutely keep aiming at the vt's and forcing mafia to kill cops or let us ic

Yeah... I think I agree. We should continue to hunt outside the cops.

I'd still like LL to answer why he investigated mcmc, though.
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Galzria

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #740 on: September 03, 2018, 10:21:37 pm »

e,

Why did you choose to target Datswan?

Mcmc - The problem here lies in the fact that we have a fairly limited chance to actually receive more useful information, so that argument is more or less moot.

With 5 VT claims to choose from today (you're excluded), 1 of whom is scum, if we lynch incorrectly, that leaves 4 VT claims for our cops to choose from. 1 of those claimed VT's is scum, and will return scum to any Cop that targets them. 2 of those VT's will be framed, and will return scum to any Cop that targets them. That leaves, for tomorrow, just a single VT claim that has a chance of being copped as town. Further, as mafia know who it is that they framed, the mafia cop (e/Datswan/LaLight) can safely claim a scum result on any of 3 players without any fear of having conflicting claims - so we can't catch scum out that way either.

Now, due to the fact that you are both confirmed town, and also not a cop, you're pretty much guaranteed to be killed tonight. So if we mislynch within the VT claims, then tomorrow we wake up to what is most likely 3 useless scum results from our cops - and two pools for scum to exist: 1-in-4 & 1-in-3.

There may be a way to increase our odds of finding the unframed player by directing some, but not all, of our cops - but I want to think on those numbers more.

Regardless, I think if we lynch within the cops... well, obviously hitting scum immediately would be quite strong - not only does it reduce the remaining scum to be 1-in-5 remaining players, but it ALSO removes the ability for scum to frame two players. At this point, scum obviously kills one of the two remaining cops, and frames one of the four "not scum" VT's. This gives the final Cop a 60% chance to create another VT, and a 40% chance to get a scum result (which would itself be a 50% chance of being scum). In addition to ALL of that, they can't kill Mcmc at night, which means we also retain him as an IC.

The downside of lynching in the cops, of course, is lynching wrong and killing one of our cops. In the case of e, it would mean that either Datswan is scum (based on e's results), or that last night scum!LaLight decided to frame Datswan for the EXACT purpose of giving town!e a bad result - but that means scum!LaLight must have reaaalllly been confident that e wasn't going to investigate a VT.

Either way, lynching wrong in the cops today means Mcmc dies tonight, and our remaining cop will have a 40% chance at creating another IC (1 scum, 2 framed VT's within 5 players) tomorrow. It also would mean that our lynch pools tomorrow would be 1-in-2 & 1-in-5, possibly 1-in-4.

I just feel like the benefit of lynching correctly amongst the cops today (which I feel we're more likely to do than amongst the VT claims) far outweighs the risk. Even if we're wrong, tomorrow is 7 alive, 2 of whom are scum - and we have a scum pool with 1-in-2. As we're not at MyLo, we can STILL afford to choose wrong, and we go to 5 alive, 2 of whom are scum - with a confirmed scum. This finally plays out to 3 alive, 1 of whom is scum - standard 3 person MyLo. And that's if we're wrong BOTH times on cop lynches.
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Quote from: Voltgloss
Derphammering is when quickhammers go derp.


Blitz:
TOWN Wins: ZM11, ZM13
TOWN Losses: ZM3, ZM5, ZM6, ZM8, ZM9, ZM10
SCUM Wins: ZM1
SCUM Losses: ZM4

Total Wins: 3
Total Losses: 7

Normal Games:
TOWN Wins: M3, M5, M6, M11, M17, M28, M32, M105, M108
TOWN Losses: M4, M7, M8, M9, M13, M14, M18, M31
SCUM Wins: M2, M19, M23, M100
SCUM Losses: M15 (SK), M102 (Traitor)

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 10

Other:
TOWN Wins: DM1, BM4, BM4, BM5, BM8, BM13, DoM1, OZ2, RM45
TOWN Losses: BM1, BM2, BM3, BM6, BM11, RM3, RM4
SCUM Wins: DM3, BM7, RM1, RM2
SCUM Losses: BM9, OZ1

Total Wins: 13
Total Losses: 9

Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #741 on: September 03, 2018, 10:28:01 pm »

Galz might be right, I was just starting to think about this some more and sort of coming to the same conclusion.

Galz, E did give an explanation, he says he sort of just didn't think about it too hard. Not great!
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Dsell

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #742 on: September 03, 2018, 11:26:18 pm »

Yeah, I cosign Galz here. I'm guessing the scum team is e and Hydrad/Joseph, with an outside shot of Robz.
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Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #743 on: September 03, 2018, 11:49:04 pm »

Yeah, I cosign Galz here. I'm guessing the scum team is e and Hydrad/Joseph, with an outside shot of Robz.

I'm guessing it's E (possibly LL) and Hydrad with an outside chance of Galz.
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Hydrad

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #744 on: September 03, 2018, 11:55:26 pm »

Yeah, I cosign Galz here. I'm guessing the scum team is e and Hydrad/Joseph, with an outside shot of Robz.

I'm guessing it's E (possibly LL) and Hydrad with an outside chance of Galz.

Yeah, I cosign Galz here. I'm guessing the scum team is e and Hydrad/Joseph, with an outside shot of Robz.

I vote e/robzz

i do not think its me so you shouldn't either.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

DatSwan

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #745 on: September 04, 2018, 02:19:12 am »

Yeah, I cosign Galz here. I'm guessing the scum team is e and Hydrad/Joseph, with an outside shot of Robz.

I'm guessing it's E (possibly LL) and Hydrad with an outside chance of Galz.

Yeah, I cosign Galz here. I'm guessing the scum team is e and Hydrad/Joseph, with an outside shot of Robz.

I vote e/robzz

i do not think its me so you shouldn't either.

Who do you like s cons to robz?
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Joseph2302

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #746 on: September 04, 2018, 02:25:40 am »

Yeah, I cosign Galz here. I'm guessing the scum team is e and Hydrad/Joseph, with an outside shot of Robz.
It's not Joseph
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Mafia Stats: (correct as of 2017)
Town: 22 games, 8 wins
Scum: 5 games, 3 wins

LaLight

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #747 on: September 04, 2018, 03:08:35 am »

OK Status Update based on the night and end of day:

1) I no longer believe LL is skum (even before E!'s results) because it was 100% predicated on them being exactly the Traitor.
2) MCMC is confirmed IC. I copped them as well and got a Town result.
3) Awaclus - good play dude.
4) LL I think you messed up a little bit by searching my target. Awaclus stated pretty clearly not to search a cop or to cross targets (the idea being because we cannot find skum 100% bc of framers, we want to give ourselves the highest chance of getting town results we can trust). Either way, I also do not think you are skum, just pointing it out becauuuusssssseeee

E! pretty much has to be skum here. Awaclus was clearly going to flip Insane and GK flipped Traitor. We have a pool of 1/3 and a pool of 1/6. The clear pro town play was to attempt to get cop results we could trust (which are town results) on the pool we need to limit (not the cops).


Then there is just the order of the claim...
LL claims result on MCMC, E! volunteers to claim his result on me. If it is skum!E he knows the only person left is me to claim and I obv didn't cop myself... so this result is safe because if he claims anyone else, and I also picked that person and got a different result - he is screwed.

There is some more to think about though. LL messing up and targeting MCMC is possibly a skum play, but honestly there is only one of them in the 2 of those players and E! is wayyy skummier at this point.

Whatever - everything aside - at least MCMC is IC 100%

I did mess up. I was very salty about my reads being wrong again and submitted an order without thinking. Then i tried to change it but it was late, there is apparently an action window (grumble grumble why not do it the whole night)
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LaLetís LaLynch LaLight.

Wins: 11, 7
Losses: 9, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 3
Mod/Co-mod: 17

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

LaLight

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #748 on: September 04, 2018, 03:10:02 am »

vote: 2.71828..... and i think Galz is second
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LaLetís LaLynch LaLight.

Wins: 11, 7
Losses: 9, 5, 1
Draws: 1
MVPs: 3
Mod/Co-mod: 17

I always have a limited access to forum on weekends.

Robz888

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Re: M118: Pacific Northwest Mafia (Day Two!)
« Reply #749 on: September 04, 2018, 03:11:11 am »

So two of our alleged cops claim they didn't think very hard about their cop choices. I don't believe either of you, but obviously you can't both be lying...
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I have been forced to accept that lackluster play is a town tell for you.
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