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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Game Over! Town wins flawlessly)  (Read 70689 times)

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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #450 on: August 21, 2018, 11:20:27 pm »

Also, that phyhor/hyper argument is super confusing and I don't know what to make of it other than they should both take a look at the setup again.

But I can't see why either of their weird opinions have a scum motivation (or a town motivation), I think they are just both confused.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #451 on: August 21, 2018, 11:23:52 pm »


Generally I'd rather lynch anyone that uncounterclaimed Tracker on Day 1, if it's alive at LYLO (the end of the game) everyone will want to claim anyway, and while that still won't eliminate all possibilities of a fake claim, it will be when we have a lot more information. If a Cop and Doctor both claim, for example, that would mean someone is lying, but neither would want to claim right now. I know you were sick of all the theory talk but you should probably take a look at some of it again, since that's what faust (and presumably mcmcsalot?)'s votes rest on.


Can you explain that first line to me about uncounterclaimed Tracker and then everyone wanting to claim.

I’m not sick of the theory, I’m just having a hard time figuring it out.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #452 on: August 21, 2018, 11:26:46 pm »

Hm, so UoS? He is a total coinflip as far as I am concerned. Not great.

I’m with you on this one so much so that I would much rather lynch phyphor than uos even with the claim. It is by far the safest of claims.

Pretty sure this is Mcmc’s only post since the phy-drop

It is almost a shrug off of phy vs Simon, with him instead preferring to focus on Snow vs phy, where he chooses a favorite.

Seems like a roundabout way to stick to voting phy while making it look legit. I mean, I don’t think I would call Mcmc scum, but it is a weird post...
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #453 on: August 21, 2018, 11:30:00 pm »

Okay, so we have 9 possible setups (lists of roles) but we know exactly what the possibilities are, right? (LaLight's 2nd post.)

So if everyone claims their roles, we could figure out what setup we were in. (It is worth noting that a couple of the setups only have 1 town power role, those in the C column, which is the biggest reason for concern about a fake claim, because scum know there is 2/3 chance of having one of those setups if they have 2 goons.

But the other reason everyone claiming is bad right now is that it lets scum target the power roles for their night kill. If we have a cop, we want the cop to investigate and not get killed, if we have a doctor, we want the doctor to protect someone and not get killed. If there are a cop and doctor in the setup, we know there can't be cop+doctor+tracker, so someone is lying (and Phy would look awfully suspicious). But Doctor+Tracker and Cop+Tracker are both possible, so neither of those roles would want to claim now.

Whenever someone dies we see their role, and then on the last or second-to-last day, generally we'll all want to claim roles to sort this stuff out.

I (and I'm pretty sure Silverspawn) argue that it is always better to wait until that point before worrying about whether this is a fake claim or not and give the benefit of the doubt until then. After all, if it's a real claim, scum are also incentivized to try to kill Phy because it could catch them performing the night kill.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #454 on: August 21, 2018, 11:31:58 pm »

@Phy

By the way, scum can choose which performs the kill, so you may want to not track your top scumread but someone else instead if you don't get lynched.

wifom wifom wifom...
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #455 on: August 21, 2018, 11:32:12 pm »

Also, were you expecting someone to verify phyphor's claim?

Nobody can verify my claim but I assume you mean counter it.

My hesitancy to vote Simon was simply because I feel I'm being pressured into it by Mafia, but when it came to losing a town PR then I had to take the necessary step.

If Simon is innocent then Mafia can get away with sowing discord and having no D1 lynch, or we have to plead which means when one of them switches they've got plausible deniability.


I'm out of touch with site meta, but this at least used to be pretty common (honestly too common IMO). Definitely don't rule it out.

From experience elsewhere scum throwing another scum under the bus is unusual on Day 1, but can happen.


Also, that phyhor/hyper argument is super confusing and I don't know what to make of it other than they should both take a look at the setup again.

But I can't see why either of their weird opinions have a scum motivation (or a town motivation), I think they are just both confused.

I believe hyper's suggestion is:
If we assume I'm not the tracker than claiming tracker opens me up to a counter-claim by several roles, although if I were Mafia I'd be able to manage which those could be. If I am a Mafia then claiming a "safe" role is a good way to save myself from lynching.

If I'm Mafia then it's plausible that both the Mafia are simple goons, meaning that we're in C and as two of the three ways we could be in C would have only a single town PR if we're in C1 or C2 then the sole town PR couldn't unmask the lie.

If we were in C3 then, assuming I'm not really the tracker, real the tracker would be able to unmask me.

The claim, therefore, is that I'm mafia and my claim is a ruse and we're in C1 or C2.

My counter-proposal is that if we ran the same logic above then claiming Doctor would be better because it would force the doctor to reveal themselves, making them a juicy target.
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #456 on: August 21, 2018, 11:35:43 pm »

Also, that phyhor/hyper argument is super confusing and I don't know what to make of it other than they should both take a look at the setup again.

But I can't see why either of their weird opinions have a scum motivation (or a town motivation), I think they are just both confused.

I could see a scumnarrative from Hyper voting there trying to actually doctor- fishing. He would know that Phyphons claim is accurate and can now rule out cop from the C - section.

I mean I can't find any other sensible reasoning from either alignement really and to me this strikes me after the argument as something as the most scummiest move all game. That's the best lynch for today, really.

Ugh. L1, right. But could we please consider lynching Hyper? I can't see anything townie from him in the argument with Phyphon.

I would by the way assume Faust and Mcmc are just stuck on the wagon being afk and would be ready to hammer when they return, which I hope they are willing to wait with until closer to deadline.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #457 on: August 21, 2018, 11:38:30 pm »

I can be up a couple more hours, I'll check in every half hour or so, but there is no way I should be up for deadline.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #458 on: August 21, 2018, 11:45:25 pm »

Ugh. L1, right. But could we please consider lynching Hyper? I can't see anything townie from him in the argument with [phyphor].

I still get a read off faust, obviously (because going after me then vanishing isn't polite), but I agree that Hyper's insistence to keep at me is baffling. Apparently "claimed good town reads" are better than "an actual PR claim", but c'est la vie.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #459 on: August 21, 2018, 11:56:26 pm »

Okay....intent to hammer Simon
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #460 on: August 22, 2018, 12:08:37 am »

Vote: Simon
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #461 on: August 22, 2018, 12:11:51 am »

Are you voting 10 minutes after you're claiming you could just vote..
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #462 on: August 22, 2018, 12:12:28 am »

Are you voting 10 minutes after you're claiming you could just vote..

*intent to hammer, but yeah, I was about to claim.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #463 on: August 22, 2018, 12:16:30 am »

*intent to hammer, but yeah, I was about to claim.
Well, what were you going to claim?

Also, @WCD, generally wait to see if the person has a claim. Given the way this day went down it seems pretty unlikely Simon was also a PR and hadn't claimed yet, but it's certainly possible.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #464 on: August 22, 2018, 12:18:26 am »

*intent to hammer, but yeah, I was about to claim.

Damn.

Also, @WCD, generally wait to see if the person has a claim. Given the way this day went down it seems pretty unlikely Simon was also a PR and hadn't claimed yet, but it's certainly possible.

It's plausible they're the doctor. Although this is likely to mean after tonight it's going to be a purely vanilla game.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #465 on: August 22, 2018, 12:24:20 am »

If Simon is a PR he should have claimed earlier so we weren't this close to deadline with half the players asleep when sent scrambling for a third option.

Way he said that makes me pretty sure he's scum though.
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #466 on: August 22, 2018, 12:29:16 am »

If Simon is a PR he should have claimed earlier so we weren't this close to deadline with half the players asleep when sent scrambling for a third option.

Way he said that makes me pretty sure he's scum though.

Genuinly confused about "forum time", thought there was several hours left yet.

Nevermind, signing off.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #467 on: August 22, 2018, 12:31:41 am »

Genuinly confused about "forum time", thought there was several hours left yet.

"Forum time" is the time that posts on this forum say it is. Which is U.S. East Coast.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #468 on: August 22, 2018, 12:43:47 am »

Doctor >>> Tracker.
No. But noone should reveal themselves anyway.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #469 on: August 22, 2018, 12:45:53 am »

Vote: Simon
Ah man. Oh well. I'm not too sad to see Simon lynched.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #470 on: August 22, 2018, 12:48:23 am »

Still phyphor's handling is pretty scummy. The cryptic claim trying to leave itself an out should a counterclaim come, the pointless vote for me and refusal to do anything useful. Well, we shall see. At least for scum!phyphor it will be nontrivial to produce fake resuls, there is a chance to catch it like that.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #471 on: August 22, 2018, 12:50:00 am »

Simon saying "I was about to claim" and then leaving without claiming at least gives me hope that he's scum.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #472 on: August 22, 2018, 12:50:43 am »

Genuinly confused about "forum time", thought there was several hours left yet.

"Forum time" is the time that posts on this forum say it is. Which is U.S. East Coast.
The posts on this forum say it is whatever time you set your profile to.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #473 on: August 22, 2018, 12:52:45 am »

Genuinly confused about "forum time", thought there was several hours left yet.

"Forum time" is the time that posts on this forum say it is. Which is U.S. East Coast.
The posts on this forum say it is whatever time you set your profile to.
Oh, well then I really don't get why I'm like the only one who prefers to say "US EDT" or whatever then.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #474 on: August 22, 2018, 12:57:06 am »

Genuinly confused about "forum time", thought there was several hours left yet.

"Forum time" is the time that posts on this forum say it is. Which is U.S. East Coast.
The posts on this forum say it is whatever time you set your profile to.
Oh, well then I really don't get why I'm like the only one who prefers to say "US EDT" or whatever then.
It's just a standard that evolved over time somehow. It took me an embarraingly long time to switch to [ time ] tags as a mod, which are better in every way, so I am not faulting people for still using forum time.
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