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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Game Over! Town wins flawlessly)  (Read 70707 times)

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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #400 on: August 21, 2018, 03:59:32 pm »

So I get now that this is talking about fakeclaims. It is totally disingenius because of course scum knows that there are only 3 possible setups.

Let's pretend I'm Mafia. I clearly could not be the Rolecop (as claiming Tracker would make it trivial to counter-claim) but either of the others still has a 1/3 chance of being counter-claimed. That's the odds you need to consider not whatever nonsense you wanted to make up about how likely I might be to claim in a desperate situation.

This is rather rubbish. Phyphors sentence was cryptic and they seem to continue wanting to be pretty enigmatig in their style. That's fine but to accuse someone being scum for misunderstanding there is really farfetched.

I started off cryptic with the hope that I could get a read from people but when that hope was quickly dashed I opened up very quickly.



The point is that it's more pro-town to just claim, expecting everyone debating voting you to immediately deduce everything is dangerous for the town win condition, meanwhile there is a 100% chance scum will figure that out over the night. You have everything to lose and nothing to gain by being cagey about this stuff.

Not "debate me" but I have the chance to deduce at least something from the response. There would be some time in twilight for me to say who I was before dying, if necessary.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #401 on: August 21, 2018, 04:03:10 pm »

A lot of my initial suspicion of Simon was just sheeping faust, whose reasoning I liked in these posts.

I still think it was a logical inconstency. Simon argued that two lurkers should have one scum among them because the others are all townie, and then it turned out he doesn't actually townread everyone else, so it doesn't make much sense to narrow it down to those two, it was arbitrary and he could have included you, but didn't. Which strikes me as manipulative because had he ended up with "1 of those 3 is probably scum", it would be harder to justify a vote on them.

I don't like this at all. Simon scumread WCD, and then she makes a single (admittedly decent) post and he drops the whole thing and even apologizes (!) for making a case. This is a buddying tactic and I would expect town who actually scumreads WCD to be a bit more persistent in their reads.

This is mostly a gut read for me. I don't like the wagons he has been pushing, and I don't like how he has been pushing them. I didn't like the "I have no scumreads but WCD" from a bit earlier, it is usually harder for scum to procure scumreads than it is for town, and then he pushed for a specific group of two less active players with no reason as to why he chose those two specifically.

Since then, there's also the buildup to the vote for me and sort of asking around for permission and trying to see if faust or others will start it for him.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #402 on: August 21, 2018, 04:07:51 pm »

Let's pretend I'm Mafia. I clearly could not be the Rolecop (as claiming Tracker would make it trivial to counter-claim) but either of the others still has a 1/3 chance of being counter-claimed. That's the odds you need to consider not whatever nonsense you wanted to make up about how likely I might be to claim in a desperate situation.
And Mafia should take a 33% to go 1-for-1 with a PR 66% to avoid being lynched every day of the week, that's why faust was suspecting you.

There would be some time in twilight for me to say who I was before dying, if necessary.
That's the problem though, it doesn't do anyone any good for you to claim Tracker after the hammer vote has been cast. No one cares at that point, it can't change anything. What you have to lose is getting hammered by town who were in that moment confused and suspicious of your claim, or scum who could pretend to be so. What you have to gain is a chance to actually get a night action off.

But let's drop this for now and talk about it post-game if you still disagree.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #403 on: August 21, 2018, 04:09:22 pm »

Simon, Snow, and Silver are the ones I am squinting at currently: The "S-Crowd"

With a preference for Snow/Silver, but seeing as the crowd is more interested in Simon, and he is third on the list, I guess it's fine since someone has to die.

I also am interested if we get a counter-claim for a power role and Phyphor is still a baddie making a play.
We should have t-shirts made.

Any reasoning on silver other than mcmcsalot's case?

No reasoning came immediately, had to do a reread.

Turns out my suspicion was carry-over from his VOTE FOR EVERYONE post and that all he has actually said this game is "Simon is bad"

Like, over half his posts are just that.

So, that combined with mcmc's reasoning.

Yeah, we can ignore him today.


If nobody is interested in killin' off Snow, I am more than happy to kill off Simon.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #404 on: August 21, 2018, 04:12:46 pm »

Simon- I appreciated your kindness, and you are correct in noting that this is a tough crown for a new-newby. I'm glad that was the authentic you and I'm sorry that you got crap for it. Seemed neither scummy nor non-scummy to me and definitely did not lead to buddying, as was the the articulated aggravation about it.

That said, the s/s/s read seems increasingly solid to me. Especially if Phy is off the table.

vote: Umbrage of Snow
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #405 on: August 21, 2018, 04:13:46 pm »

You also wouldn't necessarily mind being counter-claimed, at least not if the PR to counterclaim you is the cop.

silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #406 on: August 21, 2018, 04:14:55 pm »

Hm, so UoS? He is a total coinflip as far as I am concerned. Not great.

mcmcsalot

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #407 on: August 21, 2018, 04:21:27 pm »

Hm, so UoS? He is a total coinflip as far as I am concerned. Not great.

I’m with you on this one so much so that I would much rather lynch phyphor than uos even with the claim. It is by far the safest of claims.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #408 on: August 21, 2018, 04:23:20 pm »

Hm, so UoS? He is a total coinflip as far as I am concerned. Not great.

I know, right? I had a town!Simon feel earlier when he was really trying to stir things up and get the game going, but I am also smart enough to know that I am easily fooled and have zero experience at this. So, I am willing to be convinced.

Snow shadow was helpful to me, and then jumped on my wagon and it was all rather odd, but I see him doing less to move us forward than Simon now. For the last however long he has been in the weeds with Phy arguing about claims and counterclaims, and he should just claim which he did many posts before in response to the direct question and all that seems somewhat pointless. But I don't want to leave my vote on Phy, so path of least objection.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #409 on: August 21, 2018, 04:27:55 pm »

K,

Vote: Simon
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #410 on: August 21, 2018, 04:29:22 pm »

2) Not lying. Using it as an excuse to not contribute to the game. I don't see why it would be odd for scum to lie about IRL if that would be the case by the way. They are lying about almost everything else, don't they?

This is low to the point of being offensive. I would consider this cheating.

Huh, really? I would expect everything and anything from scum and I think it's fair as long as it's following the rules. Again, I'm not saying your lying just that it was convenient for you and that scum!you could have faked the frustration. Didn't mean to offend in any way.

So in your opinion I should be building cases explaining my townreads on players who don't currently have substantial wagons when I catch up on a game?

Did you explain them later? Missed that when rereading in that case. Just don't like lynchpools or non-substantial readlists in general, they are a scumtrait.

Since then, there's also the buildup to the vote for me and sort of asking around for permission and trying to see if faust or others will start it for him.

Others? I believe I asked Faust that stated he scumread me and you and he was voting me. Sure I want him to move away if possible. 
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #411 on: August 21, 2018, 04:30:33 pm »

Simon- I appreciated your kindness, and you are correct in noting that this is a tough crown for a new-newby. I'm glad that was the authentic you and I'm sorry that you got crap for it. Seemed neither scummy nor non-scummy to me and definitely did not lead to buddying, as was the the articulated aggravation about it.

The issue with it isn't the being nice, it's the going from a case on you you (after that initial wagon had just dissolved) then saying this:

Yes, you have yet to give me a reason to see you as town. It's not your questions as is, it's more of a tone where you seem.. a tad too worried and self-aware. And you are already accusing me of tunneling you when I'm basically trying out my first real scumread this game. Doesn't really help your case.

Second scum is probably among muenstercheese/hypercube, a bit sad if both of them is gone.
And then as soon as you made your big effort post, saying this:


Great post, and I agree with much of your observations. Sorry about the "erratic" case against you, the vibe I observed in your earlier posts isn't here at all so I will leave it for now, I think. First hunches are what they are.

i.e. "You're too worried and self-aware and haven't done enough to seem town"
<big effort post>
"Oh, sorry for having ever suspected you!"

It was a good post, but was it that good?

Also, if being nice to you has contributed to a town read, that means it was effective.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #412 on: August 21, 2018, 04:31:18 pm »

You also wouldn't necessarily mind being counter-claimed, at least not if the PR to counterclaim you is the cop.

There is no way for the cop to counter-claim me, only if the cop and the other PR did so which would be eminently foolish.

Even if I were scum then it wouldn't be worth both PRs making themselves a target just to kill one Mafia.

(And I'm under no illusions that telling you that, or making this statement itself, lends any credibility to my claim one way or the other.)
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #413 on: August 21, 2018, 04:32:33 pm »


If nobody is interested in killin' off Snow, I am more than happy to kill off Simon.

Ow, man, rough. Why "more than happy"?
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #414 on: August 21, 2018, 04:36:53 pm »

Can you link to the games? There's a non-zero chance that it'll change my mind.

UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #415 on: August 21, 2018, 04:38:29 pm »

UoS disappearance is odd, yeah. If he wasn't experienced/vet I would almost assume he got scared of Faust and others scumreading him, but nah. Probably V/LA.

Umbrages comeback hits me as scummy too somewhat, might be the frustration thing, but the case against Europe seems also rather forced. Faust, how are your gut feeling about UoS now?

Why didn't you make UoS "happen" rather than me?
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #416 on: August 21, 2018, 04:43:44 pm »

Can you link to the games? There's a non-zero chance that it'll change my mind.

Found one at least.

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=12917.0

Not proud, I should say. It was way over my head.
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #417 on: August 21, 2018, 04:46:24 pm »

UoS disappearance is odd, yeah. If he wasn't experienced/vet I would almost assume he got scared of Faust and others scumreading him, but nah. Probably V/LA.

Umbrages comeback hits me as scummy too somewhat, might be the frustration thing, but the case against Europe seems also rather forced. Faust, how are your gut feeling about UoS now?

Why didn't you make UoS "happen" rather than me?

Yeah? The last one is trying silver to explain his read on me and indeed I did se your disappearance as odd already when it happened. It wasn't near enough voting for you, though. 
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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #418 on: August 21, 2018, 05:09:48 pm »


Also, if being nice to you has contributed to a town read, that means it was effective.

In my first decent post I said I read him as town, which was when he was still scumreading me.  So the kindness didn’t lead to the townishness, for me anyway.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #419 on: August 21, 2018, 05:12:19 pm »

And yes, the vote on faust is indeed useless.

He reads as scum to me and he has as many votes as anyone who isn't me.
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #420 on: August 21, 2018, 05:12:25 pm »

That doesn't convince me unfortunately, I'm not getting the same vibe from you as I do here.

silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #421 on: August 21, 2018, 05:13:18 pm »

And yes, the vote on faust is indeed useless.

He reads as scum to me and he has as many votes as anyone who isn't me.

Yeah but it's faust. You don't lynch no faust out of nowhere a few hours before the deadline. Also no-one has even expressed desire to lynch him yet.

phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #422 on: August 21, 2018, 05:14:46 pm »

And yes, the vote on faust is indeed useless.

He reads as scum to me and he hasd as many votes as anyone who isn't me once I voted.

fixed in post!
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #423 on: August 21, 2018, 05:19:20 pm »


...

Also, if being nice to you has contributed to a town read, that means it was effective.

This annoys me a bit more than it should probably. Almost nothing other than RVS had happened by then and I made a case based almost on tone (which really irks being hit by, I should know) and when I saw a change I wanted to state that I saw it. First hunch, she wasn't obv!town for me because of it or anything. Also I got called "erratic" and in my language the similar term is borderline offensive. I really thought she was affected in a bad way.

And "Oh, sorry for having ever suspected you!" is not a tiny exaggeration for "I will leave it by now, I think." Jeez, don't get short of scumpaint there, will ya?

I will never encourage anyone again, I swear..
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #424 on: August 21, 2018, 05:20:17 pm »

Okay, well I have to go in not too long

Vote: Simon

That's L-2
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