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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Game Over! Town wins flawlessly)  (Read 70690 times)

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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #375 on: August 21, 2018, 03:20:03 pm »

Notably: If scum has a Roleblocker, then no town PR would be able to counter a Tracker claim. That seems terribly convenient.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #376 on: August 21, 2018, 03:20:35 pm »

In theory, were I lying, either a Town tracker, or Town Neopolitan would be able to know that for definite - which is 4/9 of the available set-ups (just under half, but still bad odds to make a bad claim).
A1 has a Neapolitan and a Roleblocker.
It means that Neapolitan never occurs with Tracker, so it's a valid counterclaim.
Ah, right... sorry. Still it makes zero sense for phyphor to not claim its role.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #377 on: August 21, 2018, 03:22:02 pm »

Simon has definitely had a lot of aggression cast towards him, and seems to at least be the verbal successor to your death.

I am unsure, but am definitely going to unvote, at least for the time being.

This is a really sad turn of events to have to deal with.


Simon, Snow, and Silver are the ones I am squinting at currently: The "S-Crowd"

With a preference for Snow/Silver, but seeing as the crowd is more interested in Simon, and he is third on the list, I guess it's fine since someone has to die.

I also am interested if we get a counter-claim for a power role and Phyphor is still a baddie making a play.

This was in response to Phyphor, I just happened to get ninja'd by a few people and failed to quote it like a good forum user.


Also, faust with that aggression towards a role claim intrigues me.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #378 on: August 21, 2018, 03:23:32 pm »

Although if we're in the C column, which scum would know, 2/3 setups (both the ones without Tracker) only have 1 town PR, and both of those occur with Tracker in setups in the B column, so it's one of the safer fakeclaims.

I still don't think we should lynch without a counterclaim. If we're in B column phyphor is probably the NK, if C column Doctor should flip a coin whether to protect phyphor or most likely other NK target. So in some of those cases scum still kills Tracker!phyphor unprotected too.

We're better off waiting even considering the possibility of a fake claim.
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #379 on: August 21, 2018, 03:24:07 pm »

OK, I'm not sure how to weigh my fairly strong scumread on you against the potential utility of a Tracker. It'd be nice if the vets could weigh in at this point.
Here is a probability argument: For scum in phyphor's situation, it is probably good to fakeclaim. So say scum!phyphor fakeclaims 50% of the time. If phyphor is town, then the probability of it actually having a PR is just under 2/7 (or 2/6 if you yourself have no PR, or 1/6 if you do). So actually phyphor claiming increases the chance of it being scum.

The weak part about that is that scum!phyphor might not necessarily want to claim.

But I think I agree with you. However, that does not mean it's a good idea to lynch it, when we can wait another day and lynch it then.

faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #380 on: August 21, 2018, 03:25:24 pm »

In theory, were I lying, either a Town tracker, or Town Neopolitan would be able to know that for definite - which is 4/9 of the available set-ups (just under half, but still bad odds to make a bad claim).
So I get now that this is talking about fakeclaims. It is totally disingenius because of course scum knows that there are only 3 possible setups.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #381 on: August 21, 2018, 03:26:38 pm »

OK, I'm not sure how to weigh my fairly strong scumread on you against the potential utility of a Tracker. It'd be nice if the vets could weigh in at this point.
Here is a probability argument: For scum in phyphor's situation, it is probably good to fakeclaim. So say scum!phyphor fakeclaims 50% of the time. If phyphor is town, then the probability of it actually having a PR is just under 2/7 (or 2/6 if you yourself have no PR, or 1/6 if you do). So actually phyphor claiming increases the chance of it being scum.

The weak part about that is that scum!phyphor might not necessarily want to claim.
It definitely fits its playstyle though.

I will go to bed. Will be back before deadline, but not for a while.
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #382 on: August 21, 2018, 03:27:18 pm »

Ok so I can't explain it but Simon is totally scum. More confident than pre-reread.

silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #383 on: August 21, 2018, 03:30:20 pm »

There is just this sense of simon wanting to play a 'proper' game that I don't get from anyone else and that is what scum does. All of his posts read as "I am being helpful!" "I am being pro-town!" "I am being careless!" "I am being reasonable!"

UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #384 on: August 21, 2018, 03:31:11 pm »

Simon, Snow, and Silver are the ones I am squinting at currently: The "S-Crowd"

With a preference for Snow/Silver, but seeing as the crowd is more interested in Simon, and he is third on the list, I guess it's fine since someone has to die.

I also am interested if we get a counter-claim for a power role and Phyphor is still a baddie making a play.
We should have t-shirts made.

Any reasoning on silver other than mcmcsalot's case?
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #385 on: August 21, 2018, 03:31:54 pm »

Ok simon, do you have finished games? You said something about that in your signup post.

phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #386 on: August 21, 2018, 03:34:36 pm »

The way I see it, there is exactly one way, and that is that you are a Tracker, so if you are, please cut the cryptic nonsense and claim it, and if you aren't, explain yourself.

I did.

vote: faust

In theory, were I lying, either a Town tracker, or Town Neopolitan would be able to know that for definite - which is 4/9 of the available set-ups (just under half, but still bad odds to make a bad claim).
A1 has a Neapolitan and a Roleblocker.

Yes, but there is no Neopolitan and Tracker so if there's a Neopolitan they can trivially counter-claim me. The point is that I am assuming that it will only take a scum jumping on the bandwagon to lynch me so I wanted to provide as much useful information as I can.


It means that Neapolitan never occurs with Tracker, so it's a valid counterclaim.

I'm glad at least one person here can read!


Here is a probability argument: For scum in phyphor's situation, it is probably good to fakeclaim. So say scum!phyphor fakeclaims 50% of the time. If phyphor is town, then the probability of it actually having a PR is just under 2/7 (or 2/6 if you yourself have no PR, or 1/6 if you do). So actually phyphor claiming increases the chance of it being scum.

If I were fake claiming then in 4 out of 9 set-ups there is a trivial way to counter-claim. The fact that you want to pull up nonsensical statistics to try to prove your point instead of looking at real facts would appear to say a lot more about you than me.


Ah, right... sorry. Still it makes zero sense for phyphor to not claim its role.

Which I did. I was seeing whether it was worth actually outright stating it because I'm used to towns that are able to deduce from more subtle information.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #387 on: August 21, 2018, 03:37:51 pm »

It definitely fits its playstyle though.

I will go to bed. Will be back before deadline, but not for a while.

Appear just to damn me, and then run?

Seems a little off to me.
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #388 on: August 21, 2018, 03:39:50 pm »

Rereading UoS:

Why would you ever double down when caught misreading something? You're scum, you need a scumread, town!Simon (I don't think you are likely partners, so if you're scum I doubt he is too, and vice versa) makes a bizarre misreading of a post to find someone scummy for flimsy reasons, you jump on the same thing hoping it will take off, and if it doesn't and the newb defends decently the heat will fall on Simon and you can just say "sorry, should have read closer."

This is rather rubbish. Phyphors sentence was cryptic and they seem to continue wanting to be pretty enigmatig in their style. That's fine but to accuse someone being scum for misunderstanding there is really farfetched.

I absolutely will not vote for: Faust, WestCoastDidds, or hypercube today.

I don't like unexplained lynchpools like this. Faust I certainly can understand, but the other two? Ok, thanks for telling us, but it doesn't add much information at all.

Other than that it's the frustration thing over that we wondered about their absence, which naturally could be genuine, but combine that with the state of the game we were then it just seems as a convenient way to excusing not helping the game move further at a time when we were a bit stuck. Earlier than this there has mostly been theorytalk from them and... Now I feel it's more a scum!UoS using that tool than a helpful town!UoS.

Phyphor seems to be a new Awaclus, Yey, but also I reeeaaaallyyy want to vote there but claimed is claimed..
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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #389 on: August 21, 2018, 03:40:24 pm »

Vote Count 1.9

Uncleeurope (1): UmbrageOfSnow
Simon Jester (1): silverspawn
phyphor (3):, WestCoastDidds, mcmcsalot, faust
UmbrageOfSnow (1): Simon Jester
faust (1): phyphor
Not Voting (2): hypercube, Uncleeurope

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 1 ends Wednesday, August 22 at 5am forum time. That's in 14,5 hours.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #390 on: August 21, 2018, 03:41:50 pm »

vote: faust
We aren't lynching faust today, this is a useless vote.

Which I did. I was seeing whether it was worth actually outright stating it because I'm used to towns that are able to deduce from more subtle information.
The point is that it's more pro-town to just claim, expecting everyone debating voting you to immediately deduce everything is dangerous for the town win condition, meanwhile there is a 100% chance scum will figure that out over the night. You have everything to lose and nothing to gain by being cagey about this stuff.

Regarding the statistics, scum don't have 9 possible setups to look at, they have 3. That's part of what people are getting at.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #391 on: August 21, 2018, 03:45:39 pm »

Other than that it's the frustration thing over that we wondered about their absence, which naturally could be genuine, but combine that with the state of the game we were then it just seems as a convenient way to excusing not helping the game move further at a time when we were a bit stuck.

1) The game wasn't stuck, over that period it moved the fastest it has moved all Day until just now.
2) Are you seriously accusing me of lying about real life to avoid posting?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #392 on: August 21, 2018, 03:46:53 pm »

Also that's a list of townreads, not an unexplained lynch pool. Why do you dislike catchup posts mentioning townreads?
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Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #393 on: August 21, 2018, 03:47:28 pm »

There is just this sense of simon wanting to play a 'proper' game that I don't get from anyone else and that is what scum does. All of his posts read as "I am being helpful!" "I am being pro-town!" "I am being careless!" "I am being reasonable!"

Sigh. You are probably right about that, but I assure you my "tone issue" has nothing to do with me being scum. Playing mafia is rather scary to me and right now I have to be this "proper" guy to not feel that I'm a sucky jackass or something. (Ironic when I was most myself this game towards WCD I got scumread as heck from Faust, but that is indeed what this game is about, isn't it?) Don't misread that as scummyness, that is a huge mistake.

And yeah, under the name Hockeysemlan, and I was indeed a sucky jackass those games. At least I felt as such.
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #394 on: August 21, 2018, 03:50:49 pm »

Can you link to the games? There's a non-zero chance that it'll change my mind.

silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #395 on: August 21, 2018, 03:52:15 pm »

@phyphor: that's probably a meta thing. We don't do cryptic claims here. You should state clearly what you claim.

I'm not sure why this is the norm, but probably because it's generally going to be at least as hard for town to connect the dots as it is for scum.

silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #396 on: August 21, 2018, 03:52:27 pm »

And yes, the vote on faust is indeed useless.

Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #397 on: August 21, 2018, 03:53:52 pm »

Other than that it's the frustration thing over that we wondered about their absence, which naturally could be genuine, but combine that with the state of the game we were then it just seems as a convenient way to excusing not helping the game move further at a time when we were a bit stuck.

1) The game wasn't stuck, over that period it moved the fastest it has moved all Day until just now.
2) Are you seriously accusing me of lying about real life to avoid posting?

1) Yes it was. When we called for you many players were absent, Alina disappeared, I might be misremembering but I at least I felt that we were going nowhere waitig for people to show up.

2) Not lying. Using it as an excuse to not contribute to the game. I don't see why it would be odd for scum to lie about IRL if that would be the case by the way. They are lying about almost everything else, don't they?

Also that's a list of townreads, not an unexplained lynch pool. Why do you dislike catchup posts mentioning townreads?

Ehm. If "I don't want to lynch these but can lynch these" (the part of you wanting to lynch me and Eddie is excluded) isn't a lynchpool I simply don't know what it is..
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #398 on: August 21, 2018, 03:56:45 pm »

So in your opinion I should be building cases explaining my townreads on players who don't currently have substantial wagons when I catch up on a game?
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #399 on: August 21, 2018, 03:58:03 pm »

2) Not lying. Using it as an excuse to not contribute to the game. I don't see why it would be odd for scum to lie about IRL if that would be the case by the way. They are lying about almost everything else, don't they?

This is low to the point of being offensive. I would consider this cheating.
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