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Author Topic: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Game Over! Town wins flawlessly)  (Read 70642 times)

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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #350 on: August 21, 2018, 02:32:58 pm »

I also disagree with everything mcmc is saying. phyphor is the player that I want to lynch the least second to myself

This makes things awkward for me because, having re-read the thread (and added a signature now, as requested), you are one of the players that made me suspicious.

FWIW we should absolutely lynch someone today, because watching how voting happens gives us information for the lynch tomorrow, but I haven't seen a good enough reason to unvote.
I'd rather I wasn't lynched, obviously, and I'm not sure why the axe has started swinging back on to me.

As I'm at L-1 I feel I should say that, as I understand it, we townfolk shouldn't have anything to worry about the mafia preventing a town role from working. Which should make it clear what I am actually saying, and why lynching me is unwise.

I am not confident in my read of the situation with UncleEurope, but the person I have the most suspicion of is probably due to my biases even though I try to be objective about things so I'm not going to over-react just because.

I'm also likely to be up for several hours, if this helps, so can discuss further as necessary.
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hypercube

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #351 on: August 21, 2018, 02:35:49 pm »

As I'm at L-1 I feel I should say that, as I understand it, we townfolk shouldn't have anything to worry about the mafia preventing a town role from working. Which should make it clear what I am actually saying, and why lynching me is unwise.

Are you claiming something? I honestly can't parse the first sentence.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #352 on: August 21, 2018, 02:36:27 pm »

Are you claiming something? I honestly can't parse the first sentence.

Yes.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #353 on: August 21, 2018, 02:39:33 pm »

  • If you have a power role, be very cautious about claiming it. If you're about to be lynched (and I mean intent to hammer, not a couple votes and feeling generally depressed and fatalistic), if you have a guilty result on someone as cop or tracker, if scum just claimed your role or your role makes their claim impossible, if someone you have an innocent result on is about to be lynched, or when it's the last day and it's Lynch or Lose (LyLo), then claim. Not before.
I am saying that, as I understand it, it's not possible for there to be a Mafia Roleblocker.

You should be able to deduce there are only two ways for me to know this to be true (if it is, indeed, true), and that I am, therefore, making a very particular claim to be a specific town role.
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hypercube

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #354 on: August 21, 2018, 02:40:01 pm »

Are you claiming something? I honestly can't parse the first sentence.

Yes.

I think it's pro-town to just say such things in plain English. unvote: phyphor for the moment being however.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #355 on: August 21, 2018, 02:45:42 pm »

I am saying, specifically, that we cannot be in an A setup. The only role that is only in setups B and C is Tracker.

If I am lynched then, when I flip town, you will know that I'm telling the truth and the other town role knows they can be effective every night.

Alternatively, I hope that by claiming this it will at least provide a respite. I know that only a Mafia would counter-claim and would definitely be lynched tomorrow for it.

In theory, were I lying, either a Town tracker, or Town Neopolitan would be able to know that for definite - which is 4/9 of the available set-ups (just under half, but still bad odds to make a bad claim).
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hypercube

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #356 on: August 21, 2018, 02:48:55 pm »

OK, I'm not sure how to weigh my fairly strong scumread on you against the potential utility of a Tracker. It'd be nice if the vets could weigh in at this point.
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #357 on: August 21, 2018, 02:55:01 pm »

OK, I'm not sure how to weigh my fairly strong scumread on you against the potential utility of a Tracker. It'd be nice if the vets could weigh in at this point.

If I am scum then lynching me is always good.

If I were vanilla town then lynching me is bad, but could provide information with regards how people vote..

I am claiming a town role, which ups the ante, but we are getting into the last stages of the day so we should vote and a bad vote still tells the town information. Yes, a tracker can provide useful information but that assumes I wouldn't be killed by the mafia anyway.

So, don't worry about the information a tracker can provide so much as when I flip town who looks suspicious and why?
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #358 on: August 21, 2018, 02:56:02 pm »

I agree that this:
The fact that they are now going to take some time (we are running out) and consider what everyone has said makes me think it will be more responding to current posts and not actual reads or a case. Pending more information I am happy with this vote.
is unfair, but
@faust
@Silverspawn
Do you guys disagree with this?
Scum overblows the amount of pressure they are under more often then town.

No, I'd sign below that.

silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #359 on: August 21, 2018, 02:58:38 pm »

This makes things awkward for me because, having re-read the thread (and added a signature now, as requested), you are one of the players that made me suspicious.

Eh, so what? That doesn't make you scummier.

Ok so we're not going to lynch a player who claimed, so how about we go back to simon?

UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #360 on: August 21, 2018, 02:59:34 pm »

Worth noting, I do think having a power role also makes people more likely to overblow the amount of pressure they are under.
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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #361 on: August 21, 2018, 03:00:43 pm »

OK, I'm not sure how to weigh my fairly strong scumread on you against the potential utility of a Tracker. It'd be nice if the vets could weigh in at this point.

Yes, please!

Also, with the return of UoS, is there any new read on him? It seems like there were a few posts about being miffed that we thought he had disappeared, and then some more posts where he is asking questions, but not a lot going on otherwise.
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WestCoastDidds

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #362 on: August 21, 2018, 03:01:41 pm »


Ok so we're not going to lynch a player who claimed, so how about we go back to simon?

Why Simon? Why not UoS?
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phyphor

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #363 on: August 21, 2018, 03:03:20 pm »

This makes things awkward for me because, having re-read the thread (and added a signature now, as requested), you are one of the players that made me suspicious.

Eh, so what? That doesn't make you scummier.

Because voting for someone who is standing up for me can very easily lead to you being a townie and me pushing for the death of an innocent, or you being scum and me being accused of throwing you under the bus to save myself.

It's never a good look!

Ok so we're not going to lynch a player who claimed, so how about we go back to simon?

What's the justification for Simon? I didn't see any wagoning for it to be "going back to".
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #364 on: August 21, 2018, 03:09:09 pm »

OK, I'm not sure how to weigh my fairly strong scumread on you against the potential utility of a Tracker. It'd be nice if the vets could weigh in at this point.

Easy; toss out your read and take the utility of a tracker.

Two reasons for this. First, reads in general are terrible, as I've said earlier. I know this is different in RL mafia, but forum mafia is just intrinsically so hard that games are balanced around town doing a bit better than random. So even a confident read shouldn't move your estimate by very much, and this is day 1, so your read probably shouldn't be confident.

Second, with player claiming a power role in an open setup like this it's just strictly better to let it live. Tomorrow, either it's dead or not. If it is, then it was clearly better not to lynch it. If it's not, then tomorrow it claims a result and we can make the same decision with more information, so it was better not to lynch it. There's only a tiny advantage to lynching a mafia player earlier rather than later.

Simon Jester

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #365 on: August 21, 2018, 03:10:14 pm »

This makes things awkward for me because, having re-read the thread (and added a signature now, as requested), you are one of the players that made me suspicious.

Eh, so what? That doesn't make you scummier.

Ok so we're not going to lynch a player who claimed, so how about we go back to simon?

How about you explaining why you are on me in the first place?

Extremely odd claim, I'm inclined to not believe it, but it's too risky lynching a claimed player. It'll have to wait.

I'm also wondering about why you have such a strong town-read on Phyphor. You are acting very suspicious lately.

I could do UoS. In fact, Hyper doesn't seem to happening. vote: UoS
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #366 on: August 21, 2018, 03:11:16 pm »

What's the justification for Simon?

Their posts, particularly under pressure, rub me the wrong way. I know that is an incredibly convincing case. No, don't thank me.

silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #367 on: August 21, 2018, 03:11:51 pm »

Ok I'll do a targeted reread and see if I can put it into words. But it's very possible that I can't because it's so much based on tone.

faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #368 on: August 21, 2018, 03:14:03 pm »

  • If you have a power role, be very cautious about claiming it. If you're about to be lynched (and I mean intent to hammer, not a couple votes and feeling generally depressed and fatalistic), if you have a guilty result on someone as cop or tracker, if scum just claimed your role or your role makes their claim impossible, if someone you have an innocent result on is about to be lynched, or when it's the last day and it's Lynch or Lose (LyLo), then claim. Not before.
I am saying that, as I understand it, it's not possible for there to be a Mafia Roleblocker.
The way I see it, there is exactly one way, and that is that you are a Tracker, so if you are, please cut the cryptic nonsense and claim it, and if you aren't, explain yourself.

vote: phyphor

L-1[/list]
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #369 on: August 21, 2018, 03:15:09 pm »

In theory, were I lying, either a Town tracker, or Town Neopolitan would be able to know that for definite - which is 4/9 of the available set-ups (just under half, but still bad odds to make a bad claim).
A1 has a Neapolitan and a Roleblocker.
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Uncleeurope

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #370 on: August 21, 2018, 03:17:29 pm »

Simon has definitely had a lot of aggression cast towards him, and seems to at least be the verbal successor to your death.

I am unsure, but am definitely going to unvote, at least for the time being.

This is a really sad turn of events to have to deal with.


Simon, Snow, and Silver are the ones I am squinting at currently: The "S-Crowd"

With a preference for Snow/Silver, but seeing as the crowd is more interested in Simon, and he is third on the list, I guess it's fine since someone has to die.

I also am interested if we get a counter-claim for a power role and Phyphor is still a baddie making a play.
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silverspawn

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #371 on: August 21, 2018, 03:17:46 pm »

Hm, yes, faust is right.

By the way, this is useful to know: if you want to do a targeted reread of someone, click on "All" next to the page numbers, press CTRL+F, and put in some unique string that only appears in the desired player's  description. For simon that's "Posts: 62". Then by pressing enter you jump from post to post.

UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #372 on: August 21, 2018, 03:18:15 pm »

The gut feelings from Faust and now also WCD are bad and you should feel.. something else, I suggest.
...
Umbrages comeback hits me as scummy too somewhat, might be the frustration thing, but the case against Europe seems also rather forced. Faust, how are your gut feeling about UoS now?
I don't like all this "why not UoS" stuff. Not the suspicion itself but the way people (especially Simon and faust) have been subtly building up that narrative over time.

I think faust is town, and he actually had reads on Simon, it wasn't all gut. Happy to 1v1 Simon if that's where we're going with this.
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faust

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #373 on: August 21, 2018, 03:18:19 pm »

OK, I'm not sure how to weigh my fairly strong scumread on you against the potential utility of a Tracker. It'd be nice if the vets could weigh in at this point.
Here is a probability argument: For scum in phyphor's situation, it is probably good to fakeclaim. So say scum!phyphor fakeclaims 50% of the time. If phyphor is town, then the probability of it actually having a PR is just under 2/7 (or 2/6 if you yourself have no PR, or 1/6 if you do). So actually phyphor claiming increases the chance of it being scum.
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UmbrageOfSnow

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Re: Newbie Mafia 12: Your Favorite Animal Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #374 on: August 21, 2018, 03:19:15 pm »

In theory, were I lying, either a Town tracker, or Town Neopolitan would be able to know that for definite - which is 4/9 of the available set-ups (just under half, but still bad odds to make a bad claim).
A1 has a Neapolitan and a Roleblocker.
It means that Neapolitan never occurs with Tracker, so it's a valid counterclaim.
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